[freudling]

I know there's an alternative operating system section on the forums, but this seems more fitting to put it in here.

I had a chance today to test out a top-end smartphone running Windows Phone 7 (WP7). I work in development for mobile operating systems so I have to be very critical of what these guys are offering in order to direct our business properly.

As someone who has owned all of the different iPhone models, I was very curious to compare my experience of what I have been getting on my iPhone. I was the owner of the iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 3G, and the iPhone 2G. I had the iPhone 4 for a few months.

Great phone, in many respects. But I just dumped it for the WP7. I was simply blown away by how good the WP7 smartphone that I tested was. First, the design of the phone that I tested is way better than the iPhone 4's. It's got a subtle rubber feel to it on the bottom tip, and nice rounded corners... solid construction.

Apple really took a step backwards with the design of the iPhone 4: too boxy... doesn't feel good in the hand. Looks nice and shiny though, like a tube of lipstick or something. Then there's the antennae gate, which is real and not imagined.

The performance, fit and finish of WP7 is excellent. I love the tiles and how it's just a different approach than iOS and its impostor, Android. I tested all the tiles, went into list view and tried everything from the alarm clock to the music 'app' to the camera.

The camera, for instance, was way more responsive than the iPhone 4's camera. I loved the transitions from one 'app' to the next. And the hard back button next to the home button felt incredibly intuitive. From the address book to web browsing, everything was smooth and the UI excellent.

WP7 is very innovative, and I think, based on my testing so far, that it has a good chance of dominating the mobile computing space. IF MS plays their cards right. MS clearly stuck to some core principles with this new OS. It's immersive. It sort of just comes to you, and it's easier to use than the iPhone, if you can believe that.

This really surprised me because I didn't think they could do this.

Yes, it lacks an App Store full of notepad apps that nobody ever uses, and it can't multi-task or copy and paste, yet. But they're going to release an update shortly that will likely result in WP7 entering the class of multi-tasking, with copy and paste.

I think it's the best mobile OS on the planet, and makes iOS look old and boring. It's coming out just at the right time, and it's going to hurt Apple for a few reasons. 1. Apple has completely flailed on supply and demand for the iPhone 4. Many countries outside the US have shortages of iPhone 4s. Months after release, you can still see people lining up overnight in some areas to get an iPhone 4. Apple has supply problems. Because of this, consumers will look elsewhere for options, and now there's something besides Android to consider. 2. iOS is really sort of boring now. If you put the first iPhone next to the iPhone 4, the software pretty much looks identical. They added search, copy and paste, and multi-tasking. Those are laudable, but in comparison to a fresh approach like WP7, consumers may also look at these fresh options because they are getting tired of iOS.

This could really hurt Apple's marketshare over the next 6 months. And another problem. If people really do take to WP7, it's going to be on so many handsets that it, along with Android, will flood the market. The way I see it, if Apple is going for marketshare in the smartphone space, they shouldn't expect the numbers they've enjoyed over the past several years.

It's like the beginnings of the desktop wars, all over again. But if Steve really doesn't care about marketshare, then his strategy of complete control and non-licensing of his operating system is cool.

It won't eliminate iOS, but WP7 is going to eat up some marketshare. All things being equal, in 2 years it could be 1. WP7 2. Android 3. iOS.

Still not bad for Apple. Those who are going to hurt the most from WP7 are Nokia and RIM.

And please don't label me as anti-Apple. I like Apple: all my computers are Apple. But for me, WP7 is just better.

[Spheric Harlot]

We'll see how well the interface scales.

iOS may be simple and "boring" now, but since iOS 4, there's not much difference in usability between having 8 apps installed or 80.

Also, supply problems with the iPhone 4 appear to have been over for some weeks now.

[olePigeon]

I could never buy a Windows Phone 7 because that 1/2" of useless space on the right side of the screen bugs me to no end. One of my biggest gripes about PC laptops are the offcenter keyboards.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

We'll see how well the interface scales.

iOS may be simple and "boring" now, but since iOS 4, there's not much difference in usability between having 8 apps installed or 80.

Also, supply problems with the iPhone 4 appear to have been over for some weeks now.

Actually, no, Apple has not solved their supply issues. There're shortages at mobile carriers and Apple Stores across Canada, for instance, still after several months of it being available here. People still line up on the street in the mornings for the iPhone 4 at the main Apple Store in Vancouver, I read.

Mobile kiosks and Apple Stores in major cities here rarely, if ever, have iPhone 4 stock available.

There're shortages in other countries too. Germany, Italy, Switzerland (still 2 week shipping delay if ordering online...), many others.

And now that Foxconn could have some issues with regards to employees demanding more pay, it 'could' get worse before it gets better.

Coupled with the antennagate issue, this has been the worst launch I've seen from Apple. I do like the iPhone 4, but if Apple can't supply enough of them, and people have more choice, Apple will lose marketshare over this.

[Spheric Harlot]

I don't know what you've been reading, but there's no shortage of iPhone 4s in Germany. The stores near where I work have them in stock, T-Mobile has them
iPhone 4 | Telekom
"Sofort lieferbar" means "in stock".

Apart from that, losing market share because stuff is back-ordered is the second-best thing that can happen to ANY tech company. In this case, it means sales are postponed, not lost.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

I don't know what you've been reading, but there's no shortage of iPhone 4s in Germany. The stores near where I work have them in stock, T-Mobile has them
iPhone 4 | Telekom
"Sofort lieferbar" means "in stock".

Apart from that, losing market share because stuff is back-ordered is the second-best thing that can happen to ANY tech company. In this case, it means sales are postponed, not lost.

You don't know what I'm talking about? So you'll just ignore that in Canada people still wait in line for it, and carriers have stock shortages?

You just ignore that in Switzerland there's a 2 week shipping delay ordering online? There's also a 1 week shipping delay ordering online in many countries, like Italy, Germany, Denmark, and many others.

While stock has been getting better, it's still not resolved. Up until about a month ago, shipping delays online were 3 weeks across several countries, including Canada.

My point is that it's taken Apple too long to sort this out. Yes, it does indicate strong demand, but we'll see how this impacts them in 6 months. And the White iPhones are pixie dust...

[Spheric Harlot]

I said I don't know what you've been reading, not that I don't know what you're talking about. I'm fairly aware that the iPhone 4 was in short supply. It just isn't, anymore.

I live in Germany.

My friend just walked into a Vodafone store last Thursday and walked out with a new iPhone 4 twenty minutes later.

German T-Mobile, who up until October 27th was exclusive supplier of iPhone 4 in Germany STATES ON THEIR WEBSITE that they ship IMMEDIATELY ("sofort").

I can't speak for Canada, nor for any other country, but I can tell you that iPhone 4s are IN STOCK in stores all over Germany.

The Apple online store has a one-week shipping delay, yes. But the Apple STORES (brick and mortar) have them in stock, as do all retailers/carriers.

Get hung up on that if you will.

Maybe Eden Aurora will show up shortly and you can discuss how this means the end of Apple.

I'm not going to bother anymore - I don't really care enough what you think. I did want to counter factually incorrect statements, is all.

[freudling]

Spheric Harlot:

There is nothing factually incorrect about the statements I have made. I am posting information based on research and evidence from Apple and mobile phone carriers. Not based on one country and one city. And I am not concluding that because my one buddy who walked into one Vodafone who was able to buy an iPhone 4 means that there are therefore no shortages of iPhone 4s in the world.

And the reason I know about the shortages is because I had to do a piece on iPhone 4 shortages just a few weeks ago. Others even interviewed people in a line of over 50 at 5 am in front of an Apple Store, all for the iPhone 4. The reason? Because they could not get them from their mobile phone carriers in a reasonable amount of time.

With others involved, checking several of the mobile phone kiosks in several major cities in Canada, we determined that their stock has been virtually non-existant. That's because Apple has been sending most of what they have to their Apple Stores.

Then we checked Apple online and still they have shipping delays as much as two weeks for some countries. But it's not just Apple. We contacted several mobile phone carriers across the world. Swisscom, for example, had in reality several weeks delay in getting iPhone 4s to their customers. At present, the 16 GB model has an up to 2 week delay.

[Spheric Harlot]

"just a few weeks ago", the situation looked quite different from today.

I suggest you contact T-Mobile Germany, Vodafone, and O2 Germany again to see what's going on today.

[AKcrab]

Ordered a phone directly from AT&T Friday. It shipped fedex Saturday.

[-Q-]

Supply seems fine here in Paris. One week delivery from the Online store and when I stopped by a store yesterday to purchase a cable I left at home, I saw 3 people walk out with iPhone 4s. I don't think supply will be an issue this holiday season.

Competition is good, but I think you're strongly overstating the appeal of Windows Phone 7. There are still major issues for them to overcome before they can truly be competitive in the smartphone space: office doc integration, that mess of a philosophy regarding contacts, 3rd party app performance, multitasking and because I haven't beaten this dead horse in awhile: copy/paste.

[freudling]

The US is not on the list of supply shortages. Apple rectified their supply issues in the US first. It's not surprising because that is where they have the highest market penetration rate.

So far, having checked several stores in a major city in Canada, WP7 sales are poor.

I think once word gets out there about how good it is, it's just going to take off. Early 2011 is bringing copy and paste and many other things.

And the reason I'm putting Android behind it moving forward is because Android's performance is overall not good compared to it and even iOS. I've tested so many Android devices, including the Tab, and it's just sluggish next to WP7 and iOS. But because it's on so many devices and it's open it will stay ahead of Apple.

But WP7 is so different it's fresh. And backed by a well known company. Like MS or not, they have huge marketshare both in the consumer space and in business. That's another reason why this new mobile OS will end up having legs.

And I don't see any radical changes to iOS in the next year or 2 either.

It's also something I can see on a tablet.

Of course, I could be wrong about my predictions. I'm making assumptions like Android remaining choppy. Like iOS remaining the same, boring lipstick OS.

But make no mistake, WP7 has a lot going for it. It's dangerous. Because it's such an excellent point of departure, it's going to be hard for anyone to screw up its evolution.

[-Q-]

Originally Posted by freudling 

But WP7 is so different it's fresh. And backed by a well known company. Like MS or not, they have huge marketshare both in the consumer space and in business. That's another reason why this new mobile OS will end up having legs.

This did not help them one iota with marketing and selling the Zune. They'll have to prove it's actually a compelling product in order to gain marketshare in phones.

And I don't see any radical changes to iOS in the next year or 2 either.

Unless you work for Apple in their iOS division, you can't say that with any form of certainty or factual backing.

But make no mistake, WP7 has a lot going for it. It's dangerous. Because it's such an excellent point of departure, it's going to be hard for anyone to screw up its evolution.

You'd be surprised at how easy it is for MS to screw up something good. Just ask the folks from Danger.

[freudling]

-Q-

Like I said, I'm making assumptions, I'm not basing my predictions on facts. There're just based on indicators both past and present.

Yes, MS could screw it up, but I don't think they will. It's really a great OS in my opinion... better than iOS.

[Spheric Harlot]

One big problem Microsoft has with it is industry support.

There is not a single business partner that MS has ever had in its history that they didn't completely **** over.

Recent examples, specifically in the mobile space are their PlaysForSure partners (suddenly the Zune comes out and doesn't support their OWN "industry standard", T-Mobile (promising full support for Danger customers after buying that company, but obviously failing to keep even the most basic backup structure in place, causing massive data loss amongst all users), Sharp (Danger's hardware manufacturer, who found out they wouldn't be making the Kin phones by way of "leaked" prototype images), and, in fact, all current supporters of Windows Phone 7, who surely must have had a collective WTF moment at Microsoft's recent decision to raise the spectacularly failed Kin/Danger fiasco back from the dead and into sales channels, just as WP7 is supposed to take off.

Which company or developer is going to offer ANYTHING more than perfunctory support while they wait and see when MS will pull a fast one?

[glideslope]

Originally Posted by freudling 

-Q-

Like I said, I'm making assumptions, I'm not basing my predictions on facts. There're just based on indicators both past and present.

Yes, MS could screw it up, but I don't think they will. It's really a great OS in my opinion... better than iOS.

Yes, you are making assumptions. My experience with a Win7 Phone leads me to believe it's a year from being iOS.
I do agree with your view of Android. We will all have a better idea once iOS 4.2 is out for a few months.