[freudling]

So where is the Fire at these days?

Apple’s iPad remains dominant in Q112 while Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire fizzles – MacDailyNews - Welcome Home

[andi*pandi]

My husband likes his Kindle Touch 3G. Amazon Prime has also been handy.

[mduell]

Originally Posted by freudling 

So where is the Fire at these days?

Apple’s iPad remains dominant in Q112 while Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire fizzles – MacDailyNews - Welcome Home

I don't know, your link doesn't list any Kindle Fire shipment numbers at all.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by mduell 

I don't know, your link doesn't list any Kindle Fire shipment numbers at all.

The quote from MacDailyNews clearly says "fizzles". What more do you need?

[mduell]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

The quote from MacDailyNews clearly says "fizzles". What more do you need?

I was thinking numbers.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by mduell 

I was thinking numbers.

Me too. I was sarcastically commenting on freudling's willingness to accept *anything* as proof for his position. I should have added [/sarcasm] to my post.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by mduell 

I was thinking numbers.

Wow, all you guys like to do is argue.

Read em' and weep.

According to IDC’s review of worldwide tablet shipments for the first quarter of 2012, Kindle Fire shipments dropped from 4.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2011 to less than 750,000 units last quarter.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Wow, all you guys like to do is argue.

Remind us who dredged this thread back up to the surface after a five-month hiatus?

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Wow, all you guys like to do is argue.

Read em' and weep.

According to IDC’s review of worldwide tablet shipments for the first quarter of 2012, Kindle Fire shipments dropped from 4.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2011 to less than 750,000 units last quarter.

Putting it in 3rd place on IDC's tablet tracker. I'm not completely certain what we're supposed to be weeping about?

[Eug]

That's actually a bit better than I was expecting, considering that it's old now, and it's time for a refresh to a faster machine with more internal storage. And of course, there are rumours of an imminent Google-branded 7" tablet.

Nexus 7 tablet pictured in press images

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

That's actually a bit better than I was expecting, considering that it's old now, and it's time for a refresh to a faster machine with more internal storage. And of course, there are rumours of an imminent Google-branded 7" tablet.

Nexus 7 tablet pictured in press images

Way to try and save face. What happened was exactly what I predicted. That all that marketing and launch during Christmas time last year... would be short lived. And that's exactly what happened. An initial flurry that has now fizzled out. Meanwhile, the iPad has sustained massively high sales numbers. It hasn't fizzled out.

The Kindle Fire is not old... and the shipments plummeted starting just after the holidays.

The Kindle Fire: just another iPad victim.

[Eug]

Actually, what you predicted was that people would hate the Kindle Fire and return them, yet well over 5 million of them have been sold. That's over $1 billion in revenue. So, what we have here is a 7" tablet that is the 2nd or 3rd best-selling tablet, depending upon the stats.

Quite the failure I must say.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Way to try and save face.

None of us claimed it would *ever* be an iPad competitor. We always maintained that it would fill a niche market that Apple has, so far, chosen not to compete it: affordable 7" tablets. 3rd most popular tablet isn't that bad.

[Eug]

Yep, the point here is that Amazon has validated the 7" form factor. It's the 3rd most popular tablet and 2nd most popular Android tablet, even with a machine that doesn't even support the Android marketplace / Google Play. It made Google stand up and take notice and we will have Google's own ICSified entry into this space shortly, complete with Google Play.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Yep, the point here is that Amazon has validated the 7" form factor. It's the 3rd most popular tablet and 2nd most popular Android tablet, even with a machine that doesn't even support the Android marketplace / Google Play. It made Google stand up and take notice and we will have Google's own ICSified entry into this space shortly, complete with Google Play.

No, they have not validated the 7" form factor. 3rd most popular of what? Of nothing. Those sales numbers are abysmal and an outright failure. Every tablet maker has failed in the market compared to the iPad. And who said anything about sales? They only shipped that many. No idea about returns.

Consumers who wanted a Kindle Fire now have one, but demand has dropped precipitously. In fact, just 6 percent of people surveyed intend to buy a Fire, down from 11 percent in 2011.

The Yankee Group's findings mirror recent reports that suggest the Kindle Fire isn't the stunning success it first appeared to be.

A recent ChangeWave Research poll of 2,900 U.S. consumers found that 41 percent of Kindle Fire users said they were "very satisfied" with the tablet--a 15-percent decline since ChangeWave's February 2012 survey.

By comparison, 81 percent of Apple iPad owners said they were "very satisfied" with their tablets, ChangeWave Research found.

These findings don't sound the death knell for the Kindle Fire, of course. But sagging consumer interest and customer satisfaction scores don't bode well for Amazon's tablet.

Kindle Fire: Once Hot, Now Cold? | PCWorld

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Actually, what you predicted was that people would hate the Kindle Fire and return them, yet well over 5 million of them have been sold. That's over $1 billion in revenue. So, what we have here is a 7" tablet that is the 2nd or 3rd best-selling tablet, depending upon the stats.

Quite the failure I must say.

And as you can see, what I predicted is exactly what is happening. Satisfaction ratings are falling.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

No, they have not validated the 7" form factor. 3rd most popular of what? Of nothing. Those sales numbers are abysmal and an outright failure. Every tablet maker has failed in the market compared to the iPad. And who said anything about sales? They only shipped that many. No idea about returns.

In 2006, Apple held just 4% of the personal computer market share. If 4% = "abysmal and an outright failure" for the Amazon Fire, does it also equate to an "abysmal and an outright failure" for Apple's personal computers? Why didn't Apple just give up?
Apple's Share of U.S. PC Market Leaps to 12.9% in 3Q 2011 - Mac Rumors

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

In 2006, Apple held just 4% of the personal computer market share. If 4% = "abysmal and an outright failure" for the Amazon Fire, does it also equate to an "abysmal and an outright failure" for Apple's personal computers? Why didn't Apple just give up?

Because

1.) Apple had figured out how to make real money off that tiny market sliver (they had between 10 and 14% profit margin, total, in 2006)

2.) Because market share showed all signs of growing, as did profits.

3.) Because they were obviously in a HELL of a better situation than ten years earlier, when they *could* have given up, and nobody would have blamed them for it.

None of these factors apply to Amazon.

[Eug]

The plot thickens. I had just assumed that the #2 tablet was the 10" Samsung Galaxy Tab as that's what some seemed to have been insinuating. Nope, the #2 tablet is the "Galaxy Tab family" which includes the 7.7" (or previous 7.0") model, that aforementioned 10" model, and an 8.9" model.

Looking around the net it seems the 7.7" is extremely popular, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's the best selling Galaxy Tab model. So, further validation of the 7-8" form factor.

My next tablet will likely be around 7-8". I suspect it may be true that online magazine subscriptions aren't great on that form factor, but the bigger truth as I've mentioned before is that in 2012 online magazine subscriptions as a concept just sucks in general, partially because they're trying to stick lipstick on a dying business pig. We don't have a single online subscription on our 10" iPad, because it just seems like a complete waste of time and money. Perhaps something will be released that will wow us enough to change our minds, but so far that hasn't happened.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

The plot thickens. I had just assumed that the #2 tablet was the 10" Samsung Galaxy Tab as that's what some seemed to have been insinuating. Nope, the #2 tablet is the "Galaxy Tab family" which includes the 7.7" (or previous 7.0") model, that aforementioned 10" model, and an 8.9" model.

Looking around the net it seems the 7.7" is extremely popular, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's the best selling Galaxy Tab model. So, further validation of the 7-8" form factor.

Nope. Nice try though. Show the shipment numbers of the 7.7 and 8".

In other news:

More blood on Apple iPad’s touchscreen: Beleaguered RIM axes 16GB PlayBook – MacDailyNews - Welcome Home

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

In 2006, Apple held just 4% of the personal computer market share. If 4% = "abysmal and an outright failure" for the Amazon Fire, does it also equate to an "abysmal and an outright failure" for Apple's personal computers? Why didn't Apple just give up?
Apple's Share of U.S. PC Market Leaps to 12.9% in 3Q 2011 - Mac Rumors

And although we've already discussed marketshare, imagine if that marketshare fell by 4 times plummeting to 1% marketshare in a matter of 5 months? That's exactly what's happened to the Kindle Fire and exactly what I predicted. The marketing frenzy early on would dupe idiots into buying it, and then people would realize it's a POS and shipments would plummet. If the Kindle Fire was really a great product it wouldn't be in a free fall like it is. Sorry, but another one bites the dust. Not to worry though, Amazon has their eInk Kindle, and that's pretty good.

[freudling]

"Sales of the Kindle Fire are tanking, and that says something important about the tablet market: "People want to get some work done on their tablets," asserts IDC analyst Tom Mainelli. That seems pretty obvious, but for most of late fall and early winter, technology blogs were predicting the Android-derived Fire would displace the iPad. After a Christmas sales bulge, the Fire's sales have sunk.

What's more, have you tried writing anything beyond a casual email on the Fire's 7-inch screen and shrunken keyboard?

Amazon.com made serious mistakes as it rushed the Kindle Fire to market late last year.

Amazon.com made a point of touting the speed and convenience of its Silk browser, but "they promised a fast browser and delivered a slow one," says IDC's Mainelli.

Given that you don't see the Kindle Fire sold at many retail outlets, where you could get your hands on one, word of mouth is very important. Because current Fire users aren't all that enthusiastic, their friends and coworkers are less likely to buy one, which is exactly what another part of the ChangeWave survey shows.

That 7 percent number looks even worse when you compare it to the enthusiastic reception the Fire got when it launched for the 2011 holiday season. At that time, 22 percent of likely tablet buyers said they'd purchase a Fire. When it comes to the Fire, it appears that familiarity breeds contempt."

Why the iPad has smoked the Kindle Fire | The Industry Standard - InfoWorld

[Eug]

Originally Posted by freudling 

What's more, have you tried writing anything beyond a casual email on the Fire's 7-inch screen and shrunken keyboard?

Uh, that's all I do on the iPad. Casual emails, surfing, and forum posts maybe. Oh and Angry Birds.

I tried that VPN service to use Word, but it was a exercise in frustration, because it's impossible to touch type on an iPad... although I did manage to make it work with Bluetooth keyboard. However, it's pointless, as it's so much easier to do word processing on a MacBook/Pro.

In 2012, the iPad is still just a consumption device for 95% of the population.

As for the Playbook, that was just stillborn, considering you couldn't even read email on it.

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by freudling 

And as you can see, what I predicted is exactly what is happening.

What you "predicted" was that the ~5"-9" midsize tablet space was a useless size and that Apple would never pursue it. Nothing to date suggests that to be the case except your Hershey Factor (fudge the data to suit the premise).

The cyclical variation of sales among individual vendors, or falling sales of any individual crapware model are pretty much beside the point. Many millions of tablets in that size range continue to be sold.

Note that Amazon got lots of press and sold millions of v1 Fires which presumably fed Amazon's money-making content machine. Amazon may actually be pleased with the net result. And Amazon no doubt has refined products planned for H2 2012.

Every other tablet vendor is at huge disadvantage trying to meet price points in the tablet space in which Apple has defined the quality/performance/price parameters very tightly, because no other firm can match either Apple's supply chain or volume. So expect a fair amount of (relative) crapware and consequent consumer dissatisfaction with non-Apple tablets.

However also expect annual unit sales of midsize tablets to continue grow, albeit not necessarily in a straight line. And expect Apple to enter that space with one or more righteous products IMO NLT H2 2013, likely sooner.

-Allen

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Uh, that's all I do on the iPad. Casual emails, surfing, and forum posts maybe...

In 2012, the iPad is still just a consumption device for 95% of the population.

Agreed.

I use all sizes: iPhone 4s, 17" MBP, iPad and desktop. The desktop/laptop modes are so much nicer for content creation than the iPad that personally I do not see tablets as major content creation platforms in the soon future, even if Win8 tablets become very successful. IMO the tablet form factor just does not work well for most content creation. In the future today's kids may as adults create content differently, but that is a longer term speculation.

The special subset that is images content creation, however, is already being done with tablets and phones and that subset will increase - - a lot. And note that phones and midsize tablets may be preferable to 10" size for images content creation; photography with a 10" tablet being more difficult, even though editing on 10" is easier.

Today in addition to images content creation what I see tablets doing best are content consumption and data input. For content consumption bigger is better (and more expensive) but for data input the larger size tablets are generally less good than less expensive midsize tablets will be. And as I have opined here before, IMO there will be a lot of data input usage as enterprise slowly incorporates tablets.

-Allen

[freudling]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

What you "predicted" was that the ~5"-9" midsize tablet space was a useless size and that Apple would never pursue it. Nothing to date suggests that to be the case except your Hershey Factor (fudge the data to suit the premise).

The cyclical variation of sales among individual vendors, or falling sales of any individual crapware model are pretty much beside the point. Many millions of tablets in that size range continue to be sold.

Note that Amazon got lots of press and sold millions of v1 Fires which presumably fed Amazon's money-making content machine. Amazon may actually be pleased with the net result. And Amazon no doubt has refined products planned for H2 2012.

Every other tablet vendor is at huge disadvantage trying to meet price points in the tablet space in which Apple has defined the quality/performance/price parameters very tightly, because no other firm can match either Apple's supply chain or volume. So expect a fair amount of (relative) crapware and consequent consumer dissatisfaction with non-Apple tablets.

However also expect annual unit sales of midsize tablets to continue grow, albeit not necessarily in a straight line. And expect Apple to enter that space with one or more righteous products IMO NLT H2 2013, likely sooner.

-Allen

I predicted exactly what is happening to the Kindle Fire. I also predicted, like Jobs, that the tweener tablets would fail. And they have. Whether you think it's disinformation by Jobs is besides the point.

Nobody needs tweeners when smartphones exist, specially jumbo Android phones that have flooded the market. Even though I don't like jumbo smartphones, my retina display iPhone is all I need for a lot of tasks. I scale up to the iPad when I'm reading PDFs, books, watching movies, or doing serious Web surfing and Emailing. And I think this is exactly what the world does too.

We've all been waiting for 7" color tablets to explode, but they haven't. They're niche and in many cases have fallen flat.

It's one thing for people who like to argue to cling to something on the Internet, but in reality people aren't buying and using these things. And I should know because I develop for tablets. What's happened is exactly what I predicted several years ago. That it would become polarized. On the one side eInks would keep some decent traction... but only niche (novel reading). That in itself is actually a big market and business for Amazon. A lot of books they sell on the Kindle Store are novels. This is all but confirmed now... eInk and novels are going hand in hand.

On the other side, all the tweeners have flunked out in terms of real sell through and revenue generated per user. From gaming and productivity, developing specifically for these tweeners is in most cases a waste of time. The traffic and money just isn't there. Books don't require any extra work though, it's all auto-formatting within reader Apps.

I really liked the Samsung Galaxy Tab 7". To me it was the best 7" out there and still is. But overall the usage scenarios just aren't there, and Android has been stymied on tablets.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

However also expect annual unit sales of midsize tablets to continue grow, albeit not necessarily in a straight line. And expect Apple to enter that space with one or more righteous products IMO NLT H2 2013, likely sooner.

-Allen

So midsize tablets are growing in sales? Show me the data. I haven't seen any data that shows this. I'm curious.

[SierraDragon]

I do not have hard sales data for midsize but intend to keep an eye out for a good source.

[Eug]

No hard numbers, because Samsung doesn't release the individual sales numbers for the various models. However, FWIW, the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 outsells the 10" Galaxy Tab 2 at Amazon.com. Both were released this spring.

BTW, the Kindle Fire is the number one selling tablet at Amazon.com, not surprisingly.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

No hard numbers, because Samsung doesn't release the individual sales numbers for the various models. However, FWIW, the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 outsells the 10" Galaxy Tab 2 at Amazon.com. Both were released this spring.

BTW, the Kindle Fire is the number one selling tablet at Amazon.com, not surprisingly.

And Santa Claus is real. You'll believe anything. Amazon is lying, and they're being called out for it again. They got pressured about this with the eInk and now the Fire.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by freudling 

And Santa Claus is real. You'll believe anything. Amazon is lying, and they're being called out for it again. They got pressured about this with the eInk and now the Fire.

Hahah, love it. freudling strikes again.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Hahah, love it. freudling strikes again.

Even if you believe Amazon... It doesn't mean it's good because something is a best seller on there. It's a useless statement. It says nothing about how many units actually sold. And it says nothing about the competition. The reality is that Amazon holds about 5% tablet marketshare and falling.

[Eug]

We're talking relative numbers. My point is that the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 currently outsells the 10" Galaxy Tab 2 there, so obviously some people like that size.

The fact that the Kindle Fire outsells the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 there is not the relevant point, because obviously relative sales numbers are going to be biased in favour of the Fire at Amazon. People are naturally going to go to Amazon to buy an Amazon product. However, no such bias is present for the 7" Tab 2 vs. the 10" Tab 2. These two new Samsung products are on equal footing at Amazon.com, with both in-stock, yet people are buying more of the 7" model.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Eug 

We're talking relative numbers. My point is that the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 currently outsells the 10" Galaxy Tab 2 there, so obviously some people like that size.

Yes, but nobody likes 7" tablets, so clearly Amazon is lying.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

We're talking relative numbers. My point is that the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 currently outsells the 10" Galaxy Tab 2 there, so obviously some people like that size.

The fact that the Kindle Fire outsells the 7" Galaxy Tab 2 there is not the relevant point, because obviously relative sales numbers are going to be biased in favour of the Fire at Amazon. People are naturally going to go to Amazon to buy an Amazon product. However, no such bias is present for the 7" Tab 2 vs. the 10" Tab 2. These two new Samsung products are on equal footing at Amazon.com, with both in-stock, yet people are buying more of the 7" model.

Show me how many 7" tablets have sold this year. Show me how much revenue developers and manufacturers have made on 7" tablets. You can't because you don't buy the data. We do and it's a bust market. Overall for 2011 and 2012 Q1 there's a net loss for manufacturers and developers with 7" tablets. Both the sale of the hardware and money made on Apps.

Not one of you actually believes your position. You do it because you just want to argue.

I wish 7" tablets would hit big. The more tablets out there the better it is for my business. But there're a dead end.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Show me how many 7" tablets have sold this year. Show me how much revenue developers and manufacturers have made on 7" tablets. You can't because you don't buy the data. We do and it's a bust market. Overall for 2011 and 2012 Q1 there's a net loss for manufacturers and developers with 7" tablets. Both the sale of the hardware and money made on Apps.

Not one of you actually believes your position. You do it because you just want to argue.

I wish 7" tablets would hit big. The more tablets out there the better it is for my business. But there're a dead end.

Why don't you share your data with us? It's easy to claim having data that you can't share because you purchased it.

I dont think YOU believe your position. If you didn't just want to argue, you wouldn't have dredged up this thread.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Why don't you share your data with us? It's easy to claim having data that you can't share because you purchased it.

I dont think YOU believe your position. If you didn't just want to argue, you wouldn't have dredged up this thread.

The report costs several hundred from the IDC and contains an array of granular numbers across all tablet form factors. You are not allowed to republish any of the data without their written permission. Go buy it yourself, get a clue, and come back here and see where you're at.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

The report costs several hundred from the IDC and contains an array of granular numbers across all tablet form factors. You are not allowed to republish any of the data without their written permission. Go buy it yourself, get a clue, and come back here and see where you're at.

Oh, but I *did* buy a report. It completely contradicts what you claim to be in *your* report. Unfortunately, it also costs several hundred dollars and cannot be republished.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Oh, but I *did* buy a report. It completely contradicts what you claim to be in *your* report. Unfortunately, it also costs several hundred dollars and cannot be republished.

How do you have time to post here when you spend so much time with your 7"?

[SierraDragon]

f you are so wrong. Do you really think that major vendors keep producing new versions of midsize tablets and larger than 3.75" smart phones because "...there're a dead end" [sic] ?

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

f you are so wrong. Do you really think that major vendors keep producing new versions of midsize tablets and larger than 3.75" smart phones because "...there're a dead end" [sic] ?

They dont actually believe themselves.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

f you are so wrong. Do you really think that major vendors keep producing new versions of midsize tablets and larger than 3.75" smart phones because "...there're a dead end" [sic] ?

Show the data about money being made off tweeners.

Second, most are failing at smartphones except Samsung and Apple. And everyone outside Apple has failed at tablets.

Go get the tweener data, come back, and figure it out.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by freudling 

How do you have time to post here when you spend so much time with your 7"?

And don't YOU have a business to run?

Dick.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

And don't YOU have a business to run?

Dick.

That's mean.

Imagine though if a 7" was named Dick and it took off? Maybe we should make our own. Source the parts, etc.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Second, most are failing at smartphones except Samsung and Apple. And everyone outside Apple has failed at tablets.

Samsung is failing at neither smartphones nor tablets, and yet it continues to manufacture "tweeners".

Originally Posted by freudling 

Go get the tweener data, come back, and figure it out.

The fact that tablet manufacturers and sellers keep on offering "tweeners" suggests that they're finding *some* value in them.

[Eug]

It's also interesting to note that Google's first tablet will be a 7".

I'm in if it has the rumoured 1.0+ GHz quad-core Tegra 3, 1280x768 capacitive screen, and also supports micro-SD with NTFS and/or exFAT, for the rumoured < $250 price point.

ASUS Nexus 7 Tablet Outed In Benchmark Running Android 4.1 Jelly Bean



Actually, even if it ends up "just" being dual-core, I'm still in, as long as the H.264 video playback is decent.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Samsung is failing at neither smartphones nor tablets, and yet it continues to manufacture "tweeners".


The fact that tablet manufacturers and sellers keep on offering "tweeners" suggests that they're finding *some* value in them.

I never said Samsung was failing. I said the opposite.

The tablet market: the fact that 7" get manufactured is because manufacturers tried and failed to compete with the iPad so they've pulled the old differentiator trick by going for smaller sizes. But nobody gives a shit and everybody keeps buying the iPad. This is fact.

One problem is Android: it's too geeky and has been stymied on tablets. Second is price. Apple sets the bar very high at a $499 admission price and has priced competitors out of the market. Apple can manufacture cheaper than the rest because of volume, established relationships, and streamlined manufacturing processes.

They tie up valuable parts and the rest are left to fight over the scraps like vulchers. But piecing those scraps together ends in a retail price as much or more than the iPad on the larger form factor. And they're all pieces of shit.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by freudling 

I never said Samsung was failing. I said the opposite.

Exactly. And, half of the tablets they manufacture are less than 10".

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Exactly. And, half of the tablets they manufacture are less than 10".

Show the data. Specifically sell through for tweeners compared to 10s.

And when I say sell through I mean sales.

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by freudling 

The tablet market: the fact that 7" get manufactured is because manufacturers tried and failed to compete with the iPad so they've pulled the old differentiator trick by going for smaller sizes.

By freudling's logic auto manufacturers would still be making nothing but 60's-style behemoths. No clue. He does not realize that midsize tablets are made to service the market for midsize, not just to avoid the 9.75" iPad.