Considering that Sorenson has a developed MPEG-4 codec already (commercial product), I don't think it will be too long before Apple either licenses it (as with the Sorenson Video codecs) or develops their own. I'd say that Apple makes a big announcement next year or so when everybody else already have adopted it as a standard. If you want it sooner than that I would look for outside solutions. E-Vue (www.e-vue.com) alrady has a plug-in for browsers and Photoshop to handle images compressed with MPEG-4 (I'm impressed!), I hope they also have a video codec up their sleeves :-)
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