[mikerally]

It's the second quarter.

According to IBM's press release, the IBM PPC 970 should be in initial sampling for manufacture by now, in the run up to manufacturing in 3 months time (2H 2003).

If all goes well these processors will be running off the end of the line before this year ends.

[MindFad]

[Thain Esh Kelch]

Originally posted by mikerally:
According to IBM's press release, the IBM PPC 970 should be in initial sampling for manufacture by now, in the run up to manufacturing in 3 months time (2H 2003).

Where?

[DrBoar]

http://www-3.ibm.com/chips/products/...uctfocus2.html

www.simdtech.org/apps/group_public/download.php/ 23/IBM_PPC970_MPF2002.pdf

Please fasten seat belts, you are in for speeeeeeed

[Norty]

Mindfad,
Let's hope that's not a premature ejaculation and we really will see a new Mac soon

[Mac Zealot]

From my PREDICTIONS A powermac THAT MIGHT be using the name G5 will be out by MY SPECULATION Around WWDC.

I also speculate that according to motorola information it will have a powerpc 970 @ between 1.8ghz and 2.5ghz

I also predict it will be in a new metal enclosure.

[D'Espice]

Originally posted by Mac Zealot:
From my PREDICTIONS A powermac THAT MIGHT be using the name G5 will be out by MY SPECULATION Around WWDC.

I also speculate that according to motorola information it will have a powerpc 970 @ between 1.8ghz and 2.5ghz

I also predict it will be in a new metal enclosure.

I mostly concur. I don't agree on WWDC though, I assume we won't see a G5 powered Mac for at least another year.

[ReggieX]

Originally posted by Mac Zealot:
I also speculate that according to motorola information it will have a powerpc 970 @ between 1.8ghz and 2.5ghz[/B]

Since when does Moto have anything to do with the PPC970?

[mikerally]

This is pure speculation, but I'm marking November on my calendar for the release date.

This is assuming the maunfacturing lines ramp up to full production in August, the first processors will come off the line in October/November.

[-Q-]

Originally posted by mikerally:
This is pure speculation, but I'm marking November on my calendar for the release date.

This is assuming the maunfacturing lines ramp up to full production in August, the first processors will come off the line in October/November.

But, it can't take that long! I won't be able to stand that long of a wait. I've been holding off replacing my beige with a 970-powered machine (no, I don't need a new machine quite yet, so I'm not suffering greatly by not getting a 1.4 GHz or something right now, but the instant gratification side of me wants it now! )

On a more serious note, I'm hoping the delay in WWDC is related to the extra time needed for Panther development and getting Panther ready for kick-arse new hardware. I'm intrigued by the idea of 'GUI enhancements' in Panther, but I'm far more interested in hardware development at this point.

With two more months to wait, I can't wait to see what the speculation evolves into....

[superfula]

Once again, a correction is needed.

"Sampling is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2003 with production expected in the second half of 2003"

Just because it is the beginning of the second quarter doesn't mean sampling has started. Second quarter goes till june. I wouldn't expect anything to start until then. Production will probably start in Aug-Sept time range. There will be no 970 in any Mac this year. It is physically impossible for IBM to start manufacturing a processor and have it in machines less than 4 months later. It will take 3 months just to ramp up production and get a decent number of processors ready to be put in computers. Then add another month or two for apple to actually get them and put them in enough machines to have some sort of stock.

January 04 at the absolute earliest.

[3.1416]

Originally posted by superfula:
Second quarter goes till june. I wouldn't expect anything to start until then.

IBM isn't Motorola. They could easily be ahead of schedule as several recent rumors have claimed. They may be sampling now and start volume production in June, allowing Steve to announce 970 PowerMacs at WWDC shipping in 6 weeks or so.

[freakboy2]

Originally posted by 3.1416:
IBM isn't Motorola. They could easily be ahead of schedule as several recent rumors have claimed. They may be sampling now and start volume production in June, allowing Steve to announce 970 PowerMacs at WWDC shipping in 6 weeks or so.

Yeah big blue is kicking some arse right now. They have awesome fab facilities. Maybe they'll crank it out!

Fb

[mikerally]

Just because it is the beginning of the second quarter doesn't mean sampling has started. Second quarter goes till june. I wouldn't expect anything to start until then. Production will probably start in Aug-Sept time range. There will be no 970 in any Mac this year. It is physically impossible for IBM to start manufacturing a processor and have it in machines less than 4 months later. It will take 3 months just to ramp up production and get a decent number of processors ready to be put in computers. Then add another month or two for apple to actually get them and put them in enough machines to have some sort of stock.

Your correct, I wrote that post so quickly and with so much hope I had forgotten to add that possibility to the equation.

What I really meant to say is According to IBM's press release, it is very possible that the IBM PPC 970 could be in initial sampling for manufacture at this moment, in the run up to manufacturing in that could very possibly starting 3 months time (2H 2003) - of course neither are for certain.

I might add that you are a tad sceptical/too realistic, aren't you?
I was predicting Jan 2004 last year aswell, but I've become a tad more optimistic/overhyped as of late. It must the reality distortion field

[PBAddict]

Originally posted by mikerally:
This is pure speculation, but I'm marking November on my calendar for the release date.

This is assuming the maunfacturing lines ramp up to full production in August, the first processors will come off the line in October/November.

Agree, I think oct/nov earliest. IBM own page says 2nd half 2003 and I think apple will want to release a G5 powermac with Panther.

[Cipher13]

Well, even if the processors are ready, that doesn't mean a whole lot with regard to a timescale for new PowerMacs.

Motherboards? Enclosures? Software updates? They can't have a motherboard ready right as the processor becomes available - theoretically it may work, but until you've tested it with a finished product and made final adjustments, you never know how things may go.

Even then, we're assuming there are going to be no issues such as the G4 errata...

[cowerd]

Motherboards? Enclosures? Software updates? They can't have a motherboard ready right as the processor becomes available - theoretically it may work, but until you've tested it with a finished product and made final adjustments, you never know how things may go.

Apple has been getting samples of pre-production chips from IBM since last summer, and possibly before.

[superfula]

Originally posted by cowerd:
Apple has been getting samples of pre-production chips from IBM since last summer, and possibly before.

How do you know? Where are the announcements from Apple? You guys need to quit believing every rumor you hear. Remember the rumors before MWSF03? No one had a clue what was going to be intro'd. Almost every rumor and every "reliable source" was way off base.

I am being realistic because it's necessary. Given the timeline ibm has on their site, there is no reason to believe they are ahead of schedule. And taking into view what Cipher just said, "G5s" being released this year is almost impossible. I would say Apple won't even demo the "G5" until 04. And I'll say that I don't think Panther will be 64bit. This is logical stuff people. There's no reason to get all excited about vaporware powermacs. What is more likely, is Apple will update the PMac line this summer to the newest Motorola processor.

[cowerd]

IBM Burlington fab did some special runs for Apple this summer.

Panther doesn't have to 64-bit to run the 970, as the 970 is fully 32-bit compatible.

There is no newest Moto processor. The 7457, the .13u die-shrink of the 7455 is due Q42003 (at quoted speeds of 1.3GHZ), and that's if Moto is on time. The 7455 won't clock any higher than 1.42GHZ, as the present 1.42GHZ is a higher voltage core version of the 7455 (Apple only special) and runs very hot. So if there is no 970 by September don't expect to see updated PowerMacs at that time.

If you're going to be realistic then include the fact that Apple has nothing to upgrade to except the 970, whether it comes in September or January.

[superfula]

Originally posted by cowerd:
IBM Burlington fab did some special runs for Apple this summer.

Panther doesn't have to 64-bit to run the 970, as the 970 is fully 32-bit compatible.

There is no newest Moto processor. The 7457, the .13u die-shrink of the 7455 is due Q42003 (at quoted speeds of 1.3GHZ), and that's if Moto is on time. The 7455 won't clock any higher than 1.42GHZ, as the present 1.42GHZ is a higher voltage core version of the 7455 (Apple only special) and runs very hot. So if there is no 970 by September don't expect to see updated PowerMacs at that time.

If you're going to be realistic then include the fact that Apple has nothing to upgrade to except the 970, whether it comes in September or January.

Sure they did.

Everyone here seems to think that IBM is running ahead of schedule. But of course they can't comprehend any other companies doing the same. A new G4 this summer is much more probable than the 970.

[cowerd]

A new G4 this summer is much more probable than the 970

What new G4?

I don't mind some reasonable scepticism. What I do mind is someone so bent on their righteous indignation that they can't seem to follow a simple line of reasoning.

a. If no 970 in September
b. Then no PowerMac update in September.

Simple as that. Based on all historic evidence, how could you believe that Moto could be ahead of schedule for the 7457?

[superfula]

Originally posted by cowerd:
What new G4?

I don't mind some reasonable scepticism. What I do mind is someone so bent on their righteous indignation that they can't seem to follow a simple line of reasoning.

a. If no 970 in September
b. Then no PowerMac update in September.

Simple as that. Based on all historic evidence, how could you believe that Moto could be ahead of schedule for the 7457?

That's a nice double standard your setting. The 970 won't realistically be released until 4th Quarter of 2003, which is the same APPROXIMATE time of the Motorola processor. But for some reason, everyone things the 970 will be out in September.

If you guys think it's possible we'll see 970s in pmacs this year, it is entirely resonable to think we'll see a new moto processor this year. Actually, it's more reasonable to think we'd see the new moto this year vs the 970, given the base is already there for the moto stuff. Whereas the 970 requires new firmware, updates, hardware etc.

So what your saying is that once a company does something bad, they can never do anything good. Yeah, thats pretty sound reasoning.

[cowerd]

So what your saying is that once a company does something bad, they can never do anything good. Yeah, thats pretty sound reasoning.

Yes you're right. How could I be so pessimistic about Moto fab capabilities.

[MindFad]

Originally posted by superfula:
But for some reason, everyone things the 970 will be out in September.

Everyone's speculating, not saying anything for sure. We're all just as clueless as you are about what these companies are planning and what will actually happen. You don't know, we don't know. But it sure is fun to speculate.

[Rickag]

Originally posted by superfula:
That's a nice double standard your setting. The 970 won't realistically be released until 4th Quarter of 2003, which is the same APPROXIMATE time of the Motorola processor. But for some reason, everyone things the 970 will be out in September.

If you guys think it's possible we'll see 970s in pmacs this year, it is entirely resonable to think we'll see a new moto processor this year. Actually, it's more reasonable to think we'd see the new moto this year vs the 970, given the base is already there for the moto stuff. Whereas the 970 requires new firmware, updates, hardware etc.

So what your saying is that once a company does something bad, they can never do anything good. Yeah, thats pretty sound reasoning.

IBM press release

The PowerPC 970 is designed in IBM 0.13-micron CMOS silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology and will be manufactured in IBM's new state-of-the-art 300-mm facility in East Fishkill, NY. Sampling is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2003 with production expected in the second half of 2003.

Motorola press release

Alpha samples of the MPC7457 and MPC7447 PowerPC processors are available today to selected customers. General market sampling is planned for March, with production expected to commence in Q4 2003. Suggested retail pricing for the MPC7457 at 1 GHz is expected to be $189 (USD) in quantities of 10,000.

Add to this, the IBM press release from their German website stating that they would be demostrating a blade with a 970, which was subsequently pulled before the EBIT (?)exposition. They even posted a high resolution photograph of the board for crying out loud.

Also, IBM has been manufacturing the G3 using their 0.13µm prcess for well over a year now and Motorola, well er umm that's uh well.....

That's not to say Motorola won't suprise everyone and introduce the MPC7457 before IBM introduces the 970, but I think it would be a BIG SUPRISE. Maybe Motorola should have contracted with IBM to manufacture the MPC 7457 and MPC 7447 processors, we might already have had them 6 months ago

[DrBoar]

Superfula
There is a reason for that double standard.
The last time Motorola manufactured a leading edge CPU was in 1990 with the 40 MHz 68030 in the IIfx.

IBM have a long track record of doing good CPUs (and also manufacture the fast 604E and G3s).

As far as new versions of G4 faster cooler and with DDR support. If they do not arrive within a year they are not rellevant for Apple. Outside perhaps the iBook I cant imagine that Apple will introduce a G4 a year from now, they will all become IBM 970 during next year

[Rickag]

Originally posted by DrBoar:
Superfula
As far as new versions of G4 faster cooler and with DDR support. If they do not arrive within a year they are not rellevant for Apple. Outside perhaps the iBook I cant imagine that Apple will introduce a G4 a year from now, they will all become IBM 970 during next year

Just a random thought. Even the iBook may not end up with the new & improved G4(MPC7457/MPC7447).

A quick peek @ IBM's Strategic Roadmap shows the next generation PowerPC to include:

Multicore Superscalar
SMP Capable
Integrated SIMD engine
Rapid I/O
n-way Crossbar Coreconnect

IBM has been manufacturing dual core processors for a couple of years(POWER 4), the 970 now includes SIMD/VMX(Altivec) and IBM holds many of the patents on VMX, IBM certainly has experience w/ SMP(the POWER 4 is 4 dual core cpu's) and most if not all Rapid I/O's protocols are finalized.

How would a dual core cpu with a 5 stage pipeline, VMX, Rapid I/O clocked @ 1.2GHz running @ say 10watts typical usage perform in an iBook. Methinks it would do quite well, thank you very much.

[Xaositect]

As of 4-7-03, 9:00 EDT, you may pre-order specific configurations of eServer computers with PPC970 processors (via salesman only). Following IBM history, you will have web pre-ordering in 4 months and shipping 2-3 months after that. Two of my regular customers have machines on order, with confirmation numbers.

From this information, I surmise that PPC970 production is running ahead of schedule.

If IBM can have a shipping box in 6-7 months, and they work with Apple in the sampling/ramp-up phases of production, there is no reason Apple could not have a produsction unit in the same time or shortly thereafter.

I still lean towards a January release from Apple, if they go with the PPC970 (which is not yet a confirmed rumor).

Reality check:
Confirmed - pre-orders are available today.

Unconfirmed: Time schedule is based on history, may change. Apple has not declred they will be using PPC970 chips. Apple/IBM co-ordination level is unknown.

Analysis: More unconfirmed than confirmed, though some unconfirmed are reasonable estimates. Probability: 62% using standard Epps weighting. Ad-hoc adjustment from market analysis: +5-8%, as other options do not appear to exist. End Probability: 67-70%.

YMMV seems the only appropriate ending to this post.

[3.1416]

Originally posted by superfula:
How do you know? Where are the announcements from Apple?

For some reason Apple doesn't keep us informed on the progress of their unreleased products, I can't imagine why. But common sense dictates that if Apple is going to use the 970 (for which there is overwhelming circumstantial evidence) they would have arranged access to prototypes.

I am being realistic because it's necessary. Given the timeline ibm has on their site, there is no reason to believe they are ahead of schedule.

There's also no reason to believe that they aren't. IBM is a conservative company, they aren't going to issue self-congratulatory press releases if they're a month or two ahead of schedule.

I would say Apple won't even demo the "G5" until 04. And I'll say that I don't think Panther will be 64bit. This is logical stuff people.

You've provided very little logic in support of your position. An analysis of the admittedly limited facts available points to an introduction sooner rather than later. For example, why was WWDC delayed? The stated reason to give developers a prerelease CD of Panther makes no sense. If Panther is good enough for a developer release in June, then it would be good enough to demo in May. If Panther is the only big news at WWDC, why change the schedule at the last minute and disrupt people's travel plans, rather than just showing a preview in May and sending out a CD in June? On the other hand, June is suspiciously close to when IBM expects to begin volume production.

There's no reason to get all excited about vaporware powermacs. What is more likely, is Apple will update the PMac line this summer to the newest Motorola processor.

In that case, I hope they're not expecting to actually sell any of them. Apple is not run by idiots; they have to know that going another year with the increasingly unimpressive G4 will be extremely damaging.

[3.1416]

Following IBM history, you will have web pre-ordering in 4 months and shipping 2-3 months after that.

Interesting. However, IBM is generally a conservative company (don't they still sell 604e systems?), and if Apple has any sense at all they'll arrange for a more aggressive schedule. Bump it up by just 1 or 2 months and Steve can demo 970s at WWDC and ship 6-8 weeks later.

Apple has not declred they will be using PPC970 chips. Apple/IBM co-ordination level is unknown.

1. No, but they'd be crazy not to. The only plausible alternative is switching to x86, which is just ugly. (Sticking with Motorola is not plausible).
2. The 970 has Altivec, which IBM has never been a fan of. The most likely explanation by far is that this was added specifically for Apple, indicating a high level of coordination.

[Axo1ot1]

Hey didn't the G4s come out way earlier than anyone expected/ At least they were announced way earlier. I remember buying a 400 MHz G3 and seeing the G4s released at least 3 or 4 months earlier than I expected. It was kinda annoying. Then again, people have been heralding the advent of the "G5" next january for the past three years and every january it doesn't happen. I think with the recent release of all these ill media apps Apple might have an ace up its sleeve.

[Targon]

Originally posted by Axo1ot1:
Hey didn't the G4s come out way earlier than anyone expected/ At least they were announced way earlier. I remember buying a 400 MHz G3 and seeing the G4s released at least 3 or 4 months earlier than I expected. It was kinda annoying. Then again, people have been heralding the advent of the "G5" next january for the past three years and every january it doesn't happen. I think with the recent release of all these ill media apps Apple might have an ace up its sleeve.

No the G4 was 2 years late and was approx 400mhz slower that what it was initially supposed to debut at !!!

[Xaositect]

Originally posted by 3.1416:
Following IBM history, you will have web pre-ordering in 4 months and shipping 2-3 months after that.

Interesting. However, IBM is generally a conservative company (don't they still sell 604e systems?), and if Apple has any sense at all they'll arrange for a more aggressive schedule. Bump it up by just 1 or 2 months and Steve can demo 970s at WWDC and ship 6-8 weeks later.

I respectfully disagree with an accelerated time schedule, but Apple has pulled rabbits out here and there. This assessment is just my own personal judgement.

Originally posted by 3.1416:
Apple has not declred they will be using PPC970 chips. Apple/IBM co-ordination level is unknown.

1. No, but they'd be crazy not to. The only plausible alternative is switching to x86, which is just ugly. (Sticking with Motorola is not plausible).
2. The 970 has Altivec, which IBM has never been a fan of. The most likely explanation by far is that this was added specifically for Apple, indicating a high level of coordination.

Part one is covered by the Ad-Hoc adjustment I applied to the probability assessment. Part two is patially false - IBM saw no reason to develop AltiVec, but after some testing wanted it. However, Motorola wouldn't license it, thumbing their nose at IBM for being against it at the first. But when money got tight, they did end up licensing it to IBM - for less than they could have gotten originally.