[Svenmagnus]

Just curious what everyone thinks.

[Catfish_Man]

I'm really not sure. For the processors themselves, I would guess around August. For PowerMacs... who knows. They could even be released before the processors (Apple used the 166MHz bus on the 745x's well before it was publicly available). I kinda doubt that though. Also, there are persistent rumors that it's ahead of schedule, but no reliable info.

[MindFad]

I'll go with the creative Macworld thing (or August-ish). It simply has to come this year. They need it to. Maybe WWDC if we're über lucky, but not 2004! It's all speculation, of course. We're just going to have to wait and see.

[bradoesch]

I wish it could've been 2 or 3 years ago…

[derekn]

I hope it'll be soon too, June, July or August. Intel itself is sort of giving in to the Megahertz myth with the Centrinos (lower clock speed but better performance) and Apple needs to do something NOW to take advantage of this while they can.

[docholiday]

Originally posted by derekn:
... and Apple needs to do something NOW to take advantage of this while they can.

I totally agree and like to think that Apple is gonna be ready by WWDC.

[awcopus]

I voted August for selfish reasons, but I'm leaning towards September/October, which seems slightly more realistic to me. I want a much faster Mac for FCP4 (June) and DVDSP2 (August).

In my dreams, Apple is currently testing builds of Panther on 970 hardware...and will release both this Fall. Of course, releasing new hardware and a new OS at the same time might be too risky for Apple to do in reality, but in my dreams, they do this.

January, 2004 would make for a gut-wrenching wait.

A new iPod should make the wait less excruciating.

[Superchicken]

I voted for an august release although I think they'll be taking preorders for all of July.

[jcadam]

Yea, go ahead and take another hit off that crack pipe. It'll be 2004. We're due another speed bump (at least) on the MDDs before we see the 970.

[RevEvs]

Guessing it'll be similar to the G4 intro. They will be shown at WWDC and then shipping in sept/oct

revs

[superfula]

Originally posted by jcadam:
Yea, go ahead and take another hit off that crack pipe. It'll be 2004. We're due another speed bump (at least) on the MDDs before we see the 970.

I couldn't agree more. People who think the 970 will appear in a Mac this year are smoking something pretty good. And they are also buying into Macboudille's (sp?) bs

[osxisfun]

Announce June WWDC
Ship soon after.

[Athens]

I siad Jan, They will prob be announced sooner but when we actually see them will prob be Jan.

[proux]

So much chatter about the new processors, Powermac sales got to be anemic right now. They got to release them as soon as possible.

[Nick_G]

I'm thinking maybe September/October, with Panther being released simultaneously.

[mikerally]

*AHEM*

Care putting Apple Expo Paris (September 16th) in the poll?

Jobs has a Keynote there you know.

[MindFad]

Les booo! Les booo!

[3.1416]

Originally posted by superfula:
People who think the 970 will appear in a Mac this year are smoking something pretty good.

What are basing this on? Even ignoring the rumors that IBM is ahead of schedule, their public statements have the 970 available in the second half of this year, and if Apple has half a clue they've arranged for priority access. WWDC is slightly optimistic, August or September is entirely reasonable, 2004 is way too long.

[superfula]

Originally posted by 3.1416:
What are basing this on? Even ignoring the rumors that IBM is ahead of schedule, their public statements have the 970 available in the second half of this year, and if Apple has half a clue they've arranged for priority access. WWDC is slightly optimistic, August or September is entirely reasonable, 2004 is way too long.

No, their public statements have said manufacturing will begin in the second half. They have said nothing about a timeline for release.

Aug or sept is highly unlikely, given the timeline on ibm's webpage. NONE of the rumors have been confirmed. I see no reason for Apple to announce the processors being ahead, but IBM for sure would announce when production and release happens.

Sorry dude....When you take in the only VALID evidence we have (timeline on ibm's webpage) January 2004 is the most likely scenario.

[kbata]

I have a hard time seeing peoples reasoning for a 2004 release. With IBM planning on using these chips in their blade servers in the second half of this year why would Apple want to wait any longer? My guess is that at the latest it would be released at the same time as Panther but if there was any way posable to get it out any sooner they would. It's more likely that the new motherboard would determine the eventual ship date rather than the chip. Apple knows how poor sales of the Pro models are and that they are in a critical time with the pro market. If they wait much longer they will risk loosing more of that market. On the other hand the demand for these machines would be so overwhelming that announcing them before they are ready to ship would result in a huge backorders. I guess we all have to just sit back and see what happens.

[Eug]

I predict that the machines will SHIP a couple of months after they're announced.

ie. Even if they're announced sooner than many of us expect, that doesn't mean you'll actually be able to buy one. Memories of the 17" AluBook...

[mikerally]

To be realistic, if a Macintosh based on the PPC 970 is going to be released this year, I don't think it will come any earlier than the last quarter.

My own personal prediction is that Apple can have the machines ready Novemberish - but they might hold off until January so they can build up some stock and do the usual fanfare to set the tone of the year (like 17inch PB this year).

WWDC is out of the question, Apple previews future software there, not hardware - the WWDC is going to be about Panther, just like the last was for Jaguar. Obviously they have big plans for Panther and they want to make sure that it's ready - so they've set back the WWDC a month to make sure everything goes smoothly.

I also think that Panther may be finished for a launch at Apple Expo Paris (late September) - but it could look like that it will fall behind - the gap between 10.x updates have stretched from every 6 months to once a year now.

[rambo47]

Remember, Apple has yet to even announce that they plan to use the IBM 970. We all assume they will, and logic says they will certainly use it, but until "His Steveness" makes the actual announcement we would all do well to temper our hopes with a dose of scepticism. That's why I voted for January. I would expect Apple to announce they're using the chip well before the products show up, if for no other reason than to get some marketing hype out of the switch. Of course Steve could simply saunter onto the MacWorld stage and give us a "Oh, one more thing..." to remember, but I would expect media hype to preceed the launch by several months. Build up demand, get the buzz up to a fevered pitch, maybe even give the "Switch" campaign a boost. Something like, "We're switching, how about you?"

[3.1416]

I would expect Apple to announce they're using the chip well before the products show up

They didn't with the G4; most people thought it was months away when Steve announced them. (Granted, it ended up taking Motorola months to ship them at the originally planned speeds, but let's put that unpleasantness behind us).

My own personal prediction is that Apple can have the machines ready Novemberish - but they might hold off until January

I believe Apple can have the machines ready very shortly after they receive 970s from IBM; they've had plenty of time to prepare. And they won't hold off a second longer than they have to. They'd be especially foolish to miss the Christmas season.

WWDC is out of the question, Apple previews future software there, not hardware

Not exclusively. A major Powerbook upgrade was announced at WWDC a few years ago (Lombard or Pismo, not sure which). Look at the WWDC session listings (http://developer.apple.com/wwdc/); there's very little in the hardware track, and lots of "to be announced".

I stand by my prediction of an annoucement at WWDC, shipping in July or August. Feel free to laugh at me in two months if I'm wrong.

[osxisfun]

me too.

what part of "Apple went to IBM and gave them a bunch of money to co-develop this chip so Apple will get access to first inventory much faster than Joe Smoe who does indeed have to wait till 2nd half 2003 to get his shipment" do people not understand?

Do people think apple engineers have been twiddling their thumbs and will continue to do so until July 1st _then_ get started on the most important machine apple has developed in the past 10 years??

Posh.

Announce at WWDC
Ship soon after.

Crow will be served in the MacNN cafeteria June 23rd 12:01pm

[Norty]

Anyone buying a present pro. model all maxed out NOW would be out of their mind. If sales are extremely flat, why not market the current dualies to the average user and let the cat out of the bag for us desperate creative users (graphics, art, video)? Apple has to know there are many people just like me with $5K sitting with credit cards ready.

Since (in my city) about 80% of the print graphics pros use Macs (and that can't be much different anywhere else) how can Apple just ignore that? What happened to the Apple Hollywood connection and rendor farm machines? That couldn't possibly been just trashed as a market share goal. I think there is much more going on behind the scenes than we realize.

This whole secrecy thing about new top of the line pro machines seems pointless. The average person certainly isn't going to buy a machine with 2GIG of ram and high speed video card, etc. Why not create a whole new stategy and marketing to the Pro consumer instead of lumping us in with everyone else? If you look at Epson printers, they have a whole sep. marketing category for pro. users showing the largeformat, fine art printers as seperate. Look at all the print/graphics/advertising houses that simply must have OLD machines. Apples advertising/marketing stategies have been their biggest problem for years.

[Eug]

Originally posted by Norty:
This whole secrecy thing about new top of the line pro machines seems pointless. The average person certainly isn't going to buy a machine with 2GIG of ram and high speed video card, etc. Why not create a whole new stategy and marketing to the Pro consumer instead of lumping us in with everyone else? If you look at Epson printers, they have a whole sep. marketing category for pro. users showing the largeformat, fine art printers as seperate. Look at all the print/graphics/advertising houses that simply must have OLD machines. Apples advertising/marketing stategies have been their biggest problem for years.

Maybe not 2 GB of RAM, but an average higher-end but non-pro user might get 1 GB RAM and a Radeon 9700 Pro. I think it would be bizarre to market computers like this only to so-called "pros".

Hell, even my laptop has 768 MB RAM, and it's just because I like working with iDVD, a decidedly consumer-level iApp. I would like to have a bit more RAM, too. Even some video games these days easily benefit from more than 1 GB RAM.

ie. While I don't need a large format printer, I would love to have a Radeon 9600 PPC 970 1.4 GHz LAPTOP, with at least 1 GB RAM. For my desktop, my preferred specs would be even higher.

[Shaktai]

Originally posted by superfula:
No, their public statements have said manufacturing will begin in the second half. They have said nothing about a timeline for release.

I believe their statement from the December 2002 Power PC news was:

Sampling is scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2003 with production expected in the second half of 2003.

Note that they do not state production "begins" in second half. Other sources have indicated that sampling did begin in april (2nd quarter) and that yields are better then expected. The other sources have also indicated that July is the expected date of "volume" production, but that production has been scaling up since April.

IBM is classicaly conservative in their statements (unlike some other producers). If they set a timeframe goal in a statement, it is because they realistically expect to "meet" that goal by that timeframe or sooner.

[Ken_F2]

It takes roughly 12-14 weeks from the time production starts to the time the first processors are available. Last I heard, production of final silicon was still scheduled to begin this fall. When actual production starts we will probably hear about it in semiconductor trade mags.

[mac freak]

WWDC!
I'm hopelessly optimisitic!

[MindFad]

Originally posted by mac freak:
WWDC!
I'm hopelessly optimisitic!

Yeah, I'm going to go with being an optimist this time around and ignore all of the armchair expert predictions. It's possible, but so is everything else. Here's hoping for WWDC. Unless they've made Panther reeaaaaalllllly fast, and I won't mind holing out until the end of the year of next for a 970.

[Mskr]

According to MacBidouille, it'll be June 23rd. However, unless they've updated Jaguar to run on these, or the chip/MB combo don't require any OS changes (both unlikely, IMO), I don't see this happening. It seems likely that you would have to have some OS changes (and not trivial changes) to make OS X run on a new chip (even with the same instruction set), and that would mean Pather would also need to be shipping. We know that Panther is going to be announced/discussed at WWDC, but it can't be shipped until the developers get a hold of it first. So, I can't see the new 970s shipping on June 23rd...

[mac freak]

Since it's a fully 32-bit compatible 64-bit PPC chip, it theoretically should not need an OS update to RUN; however, to get full performance out of it, an OS update will be required. My guess? The annoucement of the 970 and a developer distribution of Panther with happen at WWDC, with both shipping at MWCP in July.

[BrunoBruin]

I don't see how new machines can ship before Panther, even if a build of 10.2 can be made to run on them. It just doesn't make sense to ship a machine and not ship the OS for it until a few months later.

Last year Jaguar was previewed at WWDC in early May and shipped in late August, so I'm going to say Panther won't ship until September, and Apple will unveil (and ship) 970 Power Macs at the same time. MAYBE August for Panther, but is that a long enough lead time for developers?

[osxisfun]

I don't see how new machines can ship before Panther, even if a build of 10.2 can be made to run on them. It just doesn't make sense to ship a machine and not ship the OS for it until a few months later.

umm... short of 64bit support which 99% of users do not need now (espcially since there are no apps written yet to take advantage to it)

Jaguar IS the OS for this chip. a 2x or 3x boost in power is immediately beneficial for all users. the same can not be said for a 64bit OS.

[CIA]

Remember last winter when people were saying "970 @ MWSF!!!!!!" Ha ha.

I think we will see a 970 at whatever replaces MWSF in Jan '04.

[BrunoBruin]

Originally posted by osxisfun:
umm... short of 64bit support which 99% of users do not need now (espcially since there are no apps written yet to take advantage to it)

I'm not talking about the technical aspects, I'm talking about the timing of the availability. "Here are 64-bit machines, but the 64-bit OS won't ship for three months." I just think Apple will want to release them both at the same time to give the maximum impact.

I don't doubt, however, that it's entirely possible Apple would do a "quiet" introduction of new towers early, with 10.2.x, and then do a major marketing push this fall, when both hardware and OS are ready. For the majority of the market, what happens at WWDC doesn't even register. They know Apple has a new computer when they see the ad on TV.

[Eug]

Originally posted by BrunoBruin:
I don't doubt, however, that it's entirely possible Apple would do a "quiet" introduction of new towers early, with 10.2.x, and then do a major marketing push this fall, when both hardware and OS are ready. For the majority of the market, what happens at WWDC doesn't even register. They know Apple has a new computer when they see the ad on TV.

When PPC 970 is introduced it will be BIG. There is no way there will be a "quiet" initial introduction.

I'm still not 100% convinced it will be introduced in June though. It's a possibility, but I don't think it's a strong one.

[BrunoBruin]

Well, by "quiet" I mean introduced at WWDC and made available for purchase by the slathering Mac fanatics who monitor such releases. The BIG rollout to the general public, with the advertising push, would come with 10.3.

This has the added benefit of putting actual machines into real-world test sites for a few months so any bugs can be dealt with before a larger rollout to folks who are not so forgiving of Apple's little quality-control glitches.

[Eug]

Originally posted by BrunoBruin:
Well, by "quiet" I mean introduced at WWDC and made available for purchase by the slathering Mac fanatics who monitor such releases. The BIG rollout to the general public, with the advertising push, would come with 10.3.

This has the added benefit of putting actual machines into real-world test sites for a few months so any bugs can be dealt with before a larger rollout to folks who are not so forgiving of Apple's little quality-control glitches.

As soon as it has been outed, it will be huge. It is impossible to prevent this. Just about any PowerMac purchaser who doesn't live under a rock will know about it. Hell, even the PC world will know about it because it's gonna be all over the tech news. Apple masterfully timed their own AluBook advertising with the media outlets this year and I think they'd do the same with the PPC 970. They would be out-to-lunch to not try to capitalize on this.

Furthermore, it's not as if Apple is going to be selling mainly G4 PowerMacs, while selling PPC 970 PowerMacs in a dark alley somewhere.

The closest thing I can see to your scenario is Apple releasing it in Xserves only first, then PowerMacs later. However, I don't see this happening either. As soon as a PPC 970 came out in an Xserve, PowerMac sales would basically stop completely unless they also had PPC 970 chips.

[BrunoBruin]

Originally posted by Eug:
As soon as it has been outed, it will be huge. It is impossible to prevent this. Just about any PowerMac purchaser who doesn't live under a rock will know about it.

I'm not explaining myself very well. I'm only talking about a delay between the announcement and the big, general-audience marketing campaign with TV commercials and whatnot. The machines are available after WWDC, Apple makes a big splash in the Mac press and the general tech press and anyone can order them, but Apple doesn't really start to bang the drum until 10.3 is released. (Of course my sense of what constitutes Apple banging the drum is a little skewed; I'm still waiting for them to start advertising the LCD iMac. )

Anyway, Eug, I think this is academic since I agree with you that 970 Macs are more likely to ship later than sooner.

[Mskr]

Well, I have to say the more I think about this, the more I am starting to think that the June 23rd date is just way too early. I'm thinking that they will need to release Power Macs & PowerBooks with 970s at the same time if at all possible, and (as Bruno points out) the timing for WWDC doesn't 'feel' right. If they are making such a big deal of Panther at WWDC, and they upstage that with 970s, but the 970s will run Jaguar, then that's a step back IMO. Yes, the bit-ness of the chip won't seem to matter, but there have got to be other architecture changes that go with the 970s: whole new chipset (bus, memory controllers, etc.), and who knows what else?

All I'm saying is that it seems insanely optimistic that they would introduce new hardware for general consumption at a developer's conference where they are showcasing the new version of their OS. People who are getting their hearts set on this are in for a disappointment, and that is BAD for Apple; think MSNY in '01: "Worst expo ever." Everyone was all geared up for something big like new iMacs, G5s, iWalk, whatever, and NOTHING OF THE SORT was shown and there was constant, whiney bitching about it for months afterward. (I cringe even thinking about it).

So, in short: PLEASE be reasonable and don't expect the June 23rd date to be a release date. Even September may be too early. They may really want to wow people in Jan '04, and start off the 20th Anniversary of the Mac in a big way. Who knows? Only Steve, I'm guessing...

[Eug]

they will need to release Power Macs & PowerBooks with 970s at the same time if at all possible

I think the 970 PowerMacs will be released before the 970 PowerBooks.

Of course my sense of what constitutes Apple banging the drum is a little skewed; I'm still waiting for them to start advertising the LCD iMac.

In Canada, there was lots of LCD iMac advertising as soon as it came out.

[3.1416]

Originally posted by BrunoBruin:
I'm not explaining myself very well. I'm only talking about a delay between the announcement and the big, general-audience marketing campaign with TV commercials and whatnot.

I know what you're talking about, but it's just not going to happen. The instant a 970 Mac is available to the general public, it will be huge news and there's nothing Apple can do to prevent that.

Apple will release 970s as soon as they possibly can. It's really more up to IBM than Apple at this point.

[3.1416]

Originally posted by Mskr:
All I'm saying is that it seems insanely optimistic that they would introduce new hardware for general consumption at a developer's conference where they are showcasing the new version of their OS.

Apple will release 970s as soon as they can. With abysmal G4 sales, it's silly to believe that they would hold off because WWDC isn't the "right" venue. The relevant questions are whether the processors and motherboards are ready, and anybody who knows isn't telling. For what it's worth (very little), my prediction remains that 970 Macs will be announced at WWDC and shipping in 4-8 weeks.

[I'mDaMac]

From the MacBidouille site courtesy of Babelfish:

[ Rumour ] of the news of the PPC 970 - Lionel - 08:10:52

Before arriving at the heart of the subject, remember that what follows is a rumour, without tangible proof. However if we chose to publish it, it is that it has very good chances to be true.

First Computers PPC 970 left the production lines and are even already packed on pallets. Pallets are covered with the opaque and sealed film. There are above stickers with following information:

"tamper proof seal, confidential property inside, prosecution may result if opened by unauthorized personnel"

They will start to be delivered to the wholesalers of confidence very soon with absolute order of not the défilmer before June 23. APPLE had already used this method during launching of the Cube and more recently of the iMac G4.

Even the optimist in me tells me june 23rd is too soon. Time will tell...

[Webscreamer]

Where is the option: "When 10.3 is released"?

[Simon]

I think 10.3 will have the necessary hooks for the new CPU (read 64bit support) and the new architecture (bus, memory, etc.). After being showcased at WWDC it could ship in fall. It will probably cost 129 and we'll have to listen to all the whining about it for another six months.

The PowerMacs and Xserves with a 970 will be introduced in January 2004 and will ship soon after since the necessary OS is already around. But Apple will be complelety overrun by demand. Backorders will stack higher and higher. People will threaten to leave the platform because they ordered their PowerMac three months ago and still haven't got shipping confirmation. Apple will once again not be able to deliver sufficient amounts for the first rush. By the time they ramp up production, people will be asking for the next revision because the initinal 970s will already be slow, OS not snappy enough and the other usual crap.

Steve will use the 20 year Macintosh anniversary as marketing for the 'revolutionary new Macintosh'.

This whole hype about the 970 at WWDC is ridiculous. When will you freaks ever learn that your crave for something has no linear influence on the speed of development. If it would, we'd just need to 'want' the 970 a bit more and it would be here by lunch.

A look at Apple's recent history shows that they have always been pushing software to the limits with the necessary hardware hardly being able to catch up. I think the 970 will be quite the same. Don't even think of the 970 until Apple has the necessary OS up and running.

All you guys getting your hopes up high are going to be so incredibly disspaointed ('worst WWDC ever'). I'd remain humble and enjoy the suprises - if there are any. You were warned.

[3.1416]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Simon:
I think 10.3 will have the necessary hooks for the new CPU (read 64bit support) and the new architecture (bus, memory, etc.).

Jaguar could easily be tweaked to run on a 970 (perhaps without any 64-bit support, but that's not a big deal). If the 970 is available, Apple is not going to sit on it until Panther ships (unless the delay would be less than a month or so).

A look at Apple's recent history shows that they have always been pushing software to the limits with the necessary hardware hardly being able to catch up. I think the 970 will be quite the same.

In recent history Apple has been dependent on Motorola, with terrible results. Apple knows they need to fix their tower situation ASAP and they've had plenty of time to prepare for the 970; they are extremely foolish and/or incompetent if they don't ship 970 Macs very soon after IBM delivers the chips.

I agree that there's no point in unreasonable optimism, but your post seems unreasonably pessimistic. 2004 is the worst-case scenario; it assumes that IBM is not ahead of schedule and that they'll come in at the tail end of their initial "2nd half 2003" projection.

[Simon]

Originally posted by 3.1416:
I agree that there's no point in unreasonable optimism, but your post seems unreasonably pessimistic. 2004 is the worst-case scenario; it assumes that IBM is not ahead of schedule and that they'll come in at the tail end of their initial "2nd half 2003" projection.

It's nowhere near worst-case. That would be if Apple sticks with the 7455.

I'm not to pessimistic, it's just the sarcasm you get used to after seeing lots of these stories before. I've been using Macs since 1984 and I've been reading this board for about 4 years now. I've seen this happen so many times that I feel the vaccine effect.

You may believe what you want and you can get your hopes up as high as you want. But when all those bubbles burst and Steve destroys your Mac dreams with plain and simple reality, please don't whine. Thanks.