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kennedy · Aug 20, 2003, 01:14 PM

This is an adjunct from the 15" PowerBook Predition Thread ... focusing on the anti-prediction around the 12"... please leave the '15"/17" this week' discussion there... but I want to talk about the '12" next month' predictions here. In that thread, a link to this ThinkSecret scoop was posted and discussed... some consider it 98% likely to be accurate. Sometime after that was first posted, ThinkSecret changed the page, adding the following paragraph:

The company is also readying an update to the 12-inch PowerBook, but that release will follow behind.
That upgrade should be ready for release in September.

ARRGH! So, that's an anti-prediction for us 12" waiters!!

Sooo, how accurate is ThinkSecret?

Based on this, I assume the 12" PB is still being handled by the iBook team rather than the PB team that handles the 15/17". And based on that, I would guess that its not likely to come in line with the 15/17 as much as many of us had hoped. In particular, 1" thickness, DVI, backlit keyboard, etc., seem far less likely than if the 12" was coming out simultaneously by the same team as 15/17. Is that sound logic? (Obviously just a WAG, but that's all we seem to have to go on.)

Given that, the 12" "update" will likely just be a speed bump (1GHz) and maybe USB2 and/or FW800. Thoughts? Guesses?

So, now I have to decide:
1) just order the existing 12" now
2) wait to see the 15" specs... maybe it'll be so sweet I'll put up with the extra bulk
3) put off purchase until September (that means a month of pain; not worth it if its just some small speed bumps; but might be for all that other stuff)

Input? Thoughts?

docholiday · Aug 20, 2003, 01:19 PM

If you can get hold of an education deal (ie. lower price and PB + iPod will give you big money off the iPod and a free printer), then go for it.
You can probably find other good non-edu deals too.

However, if you need a notebook that:
- is more powerful
- has USB 2
- has DVI (not sure)
- doesn't get as hot

... then go wait. There is no harm in waiting and if you are not happy with the new models you can get the current models for cheaper than they already are.

LeeG · Aug 20, 2003, 03:35 PM

I too am anxious for the 12", counting the days. I have waited a while, so I will continue to wait - usb2 will be nice, hopefully a speed bump, maybe a bigger hd, and *maybe* a little cooler...who knows, waiting is painful....

Lee

Cantab · Aug 20, 2003, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by kennedy:

Sooo, how accurate is ThinkSecret?

We'll know exactly how accurate this particular rumour is by the end of the week.

If new 15" and 17" pbooks don't arrive tomorrow or Friday, ThinkSecret's accuracy will be exactly zero percent, with respect to their pbook source.

The Placid Casual · Aug 20, 2003, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Cantab:
We'll know exactly how accurate this particular rumour is by the end of the week.

If new 15" and 17" pbooks don't arrive tomorrow or Friday, ThinkSecret's accuracy will be exactly zero percent, with respect to their pbook source.

Surely this would mean that they had some credibility in the first place...errr.

MacNStein · Aug 20, 2003, 07:13 PM

It'll be out some time in September... probably late Sept. It's just my gut feeling. There's too many 12s in the pipeline right now.

The 15s and 17s are low in the channel right now, lower than I've ever seen for these respective models (especially the 17). That tells me that something's brewing. I say both will be out by the end of this month, with the 12 following a month later.

However, don't expect huge things from the new 12. It'll have a faster CPU (1GHz), FW800, USB2, and MAYBE DVI... but I doubt it. Since the iBook team is still in charge of the 12, and will be for the foreseeable future, there won't be that many "high-end" features. In other words, probably no DVI and definitely no backlit KB. Sorry to crush anyone's hopes, but I doubt it'll be any thinner either.

If you've got to have a 12 now, get one of the new Rev "1.5" units. From my experience, they do seem to run cooler than the ones built earlier in the run. Probably has to do with the different thermal compound they're using between the CPU, GPU, and heatsink(s).

kennedy · Aug 20, 2003, 08:47 PM

Using macprices.com as a guide for inventory, there's more 17's in the pipe than 12's... but the 15's are indeed almost gone.

On your comment about the newer 12's running cooler... I've been wondering if that's so... playing with the PB12's in the Apple Store, they didn't seem any warmer than any other laptop I've ever used.

MacNStein · Aug 21, 2003, 06:42 AM

I'm referring to distros not retailers.

Simon · Aug 21, 2003, 07:00 AM

Here's another vote for "wait and see".

I don't necessarily believe ThinkSecret and Nick dePlume has been full of sh*t before.

When they first came out the 12" PowerBook was finalized a month earlier than the 17". This could have an impact on the release now:

- the 12" rev B could have been finished earlier again, because it's "easier", i.e. has a more relaxed design (slower, cooler, etc.)

or

- we'll have to wait longer for the 12" because they need to add a lot of stuff that was left out the forst time (DVI, L3, etc.)

I don't know myself, but I have been able to wait until now, so I'll be able to wait another couple of weeks. I have lost sanity over this a long time ago anyway...