[RonnieoftheRose]

Some history. 18 months ago Apple shares were at $12 dollars. I had a strong feeling as did many others that the share value was going to double but didn't buy any because gambling and investing is always a risk.

Eventually they did double. Still I did not buy. Analysts predicted the shares would hit $37 dollars. they outperformed and reached $45. In the last month they broke the $60 barrier. Enough was enough. I had to invest something.

One analyst predicted Apple would hit $100. Another $77. So I bought stock at $69. What happens?

They day after another analyst said computer manufacturers including Apple would find the Xmas and New Year period difficult to sell computers. He obviously hasn't been to Apple's Regent Street store. Neither did he even ponder the idea that Apple has a own loyal niche and is attracting converts from Windows. So on his warning shares fell to $64.

Yesterday more uneducated analyst crap. Needham downgraded Apple's stock from buy to hold warning that increases in iPod sales could not continue as it has recently especially with competing products coming out. Pure BS. Other hard drive based players are CRAP! Nobody is buying them. He also said a new flash based iPod for the lower end would have no effect.

Needham then said the following "...only 3 percent of Windows users who own iPods will switch to Apple computers, citing familiarity with a trusted system as the biggest barrier."

I know what you're thinking. CRAP! Familiarity with a trusted system? Windows a trusted system? CRAP!

And because of these morons who couldn't analyse the contents of a crisp packet the share price is swinging wildly. Who knows how much money people are losing because of these OPINIONS!

Here's your chance as Mac users who know their market much better than Windows using analysts to tell the market what it's really like. iPod sales will keep growing because everything else is CRAP! New iTunes Music Stores will keep opening. New retail locations too. New PowerBooks, hopefully G5s, will also drive sales as many have been waiting to upgrade for a while. And another thing. We already have the most "trusted system". When Tiger comes out Windows installation CDs even in their Longhorn incarnation will only be useful as coasters and frisbees.

Analyse that!

[Kilbey]

You are right.

I work with a number of older guys that are surprised that Apple still is in business. And guess what they are all buying their daughters this Christmas? iPods. You got it. And sense most of the guys I work with make very good money some are buying the iPod photos and the rest are all buying the biggest HD iPods.

I know this because I am the "Mac guy" at work and they all have been coming to me for advice as to the best place to purchase said iPods. And wonderfully enough, Apple offers GM workers a 8% off plus free shipping discount. Sweet no?

I have probably helped 7 or 8 guys buy iPods this last week alone.

[Cubeoid]

Oi!

[Eug Wanker]

So you buy at $69, the stock drops to $62, and you call the analyst the moron?

Personally, I think it's nice to see that AAPL has gotten hit with a dose of reality. Sux 2 be u I guess.

[RonnieoftheRose]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
So you buy at $69, the stock drops to $62, and you call the analyst the moron?

Don't give me that rolls eyes s-hit. It was analysts who predicted $77 and $100. It was also analysts based on their own lack of knowledge who said Apple has little or no more room for growth and that Windows is a trusted system. Before we know it they'll say BMWs will no longer be sold because trusted Skodas haven't been selling well.

If the market wants to know where Apple is heading let them to come to MacNN's forums. We'll tell them what Apple is all about.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Don't give me that rolls eyes s-hit. It was analysts who predicted $77 and $100.

And you believed them.

If you can't stand to lose it, don't invest your money in stocks.

If the market wants to know where Apple is heading let them to come to MacNN's forums. We'll tell them what Apple is all about.

Uh, 99.999% of people on MacNN's forums (myself included) don't have friggin' clue where Apple is really going.

[RonnieoftheRose]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:

Uh, 99.999% of people on MacNN's forums (myself included) don't have friggin' clue where Apple is really going.

Speaking for 99.999% of all members? Can read their minds? Is that your analysis? Then don't 'invest' time in this thread.

[Xeo]

What I don't understand is why $12 was such as risk but $69 seemed like a good idea. It still might work out for you, but damn, to pass on $12 because of "risk" seems silly. I would have jumped on it if I wasn't jobless.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Speaking for 99.999% of all members? Can read their minds? Is that your analysis? Then don't 'invest' time in this thread.

Hmmm... Your 6 months here doesn't seem to have helped your stock investment strategies much... The ironic part was that several MacNN members had sold (as did several Apple insiders), and took nice profits. Maybe if you had taken your own advice and looked in the forums, you wouldn't be in this predicament. Now, prices continued to rise quite a bit after some of them sold, but hey, they're not complaining. It does go to show you though that even the smart investors here don't really know where Apple's stock is going.

Face it. You have nobody to blame but yourself for going ahead and buying AAPL when it was high, and then losing the money. It could rebound and jump up to $80, but then again, it's possible it will drop to $55.

Are you prepared to take the loss? If not then get out of the market.

[RonnieoftheRose]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
Hmmm... Your 6 months here doesn't seem to have helped your stock investment strategies much

Analysis again? I've been reading MacNN for five years.

[RonnieoftheRose]

Originally posted by Xeo:
What I don't understand is why $12 was such as risk but $69 seemed like a good idea. It still might work out for you, but damn, to pass on $12 because of "risk" seems silly. I would have jumped on it if I wasn't jobless.

I think everyone who passed on it when it was low regreted it. I bought now because I didn't want to wait any longer and will see how the Xmas and New Year buying season pans out. Obviously the next quarter should be better than the last with the new iMac and iPod models. Can never tell.

My SGI stock is doing well. As predicted they rose as they always do from November to January. It's the same pattern every year as Hollywood purchases new machines to produce special effects for the next summer's blockbusters. Impossible to tell if the pattern will remain the same every year. As with all things it's a gamble.

I'm surprised to see that Maxtor and Seagate are doing very well. With so few processor upgrades in recent times it seems that people are buying faster HDs to speed up their systems or need more space to save their downloaded junk.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Analysis again? I've been reading MacNN for five years.

Hmmm... Your 5 years here doesn't seem to have helped your stock investment strategies much

[dreilly1]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Some history. 18 months ago Apple shares were at $12 dollars. I had a strong feeling as did many others that the share value was going to double but didn't buy any because gambling and investing is always a risk.

If you really did your homework, you'd have seen that at the time, Apple has something like $11/share in cash on hand. Which means that investors didn't think the actual company was worth anything. If you did think the company had a future, that was the time to buy. That's not gambling, that's analysis.

I haven't had the time to look at the figures lately, but I think Apple has some legs left in it. They have positive cash flow, no debt, and enough cash on hand to stave off suprises. They're selling a ton of iPods and making much more of a success out of it then the analysts had thought even 18 months ago. $100 seems too high. A cursory glance at some statistics suggests to me that analysts who set that target are expecting a lot of earnings growth next year. As well as the iPod is selling, they'll need something else to get there, IMHO.

But I'm by no means a stock expert, as my Portfolio will tell you...

[CreepingDeth]

Didn't you do any research on your own?
Did you really think Apple could sustain a $70 stock price like that? No, they can't. It's probably going to go back down. This high is almost unnatural. Foolish of you to buy a stock when it starts getting hyped. You're supposed to look for the ones with a future, a long-term plan, and have lower prices, unless you can afford to pump tens of thousands into buying.
I sure as hell wouldn't buy a Microsoft stock in 99. Why buy an Apple stock at their peak?

[Mrjinglesusa]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
So you buy at $69, the stock drops to $62, and you call the analyst the moron?

Personally, I think it's nice to see that AAPL has gotten hit with a dose of reality. Sux 2 be u I guess.

I agree. You bought on momemtum. Bad idea. People who bought when they should have are now profit taking. Now is NOT the time to buy Apple stock. No matter what the analysts say.

[d0ubled0wn]

Any time that a stock becomes volatile, ie wild swings in price, it becomes more risky to invest in.


On 11/22, AAPL went from 55 to 61 and pushed higher the next few days. Investors tend to take profits when this happens, even more so in this case because of the downgrade. The downgrade shook some people out causing the price drop, but I would expect it to trend back upward.

If you watch a stock day to day you will become frustrated. You have to look at the big picture. Of course you never want a stock to drop too far below your buying price, and it's always a good idea to have sell rules (8 to 10% is recommended). But in this case I would stick it out and be confident that AAPL will have a good Christmas season and post great first quarter numbers. After all, investors like it when businesses make $$, right?

[CreepingDeth]

Christmas and a good Macworld would be a nice shot in the arm. We all need to know if Apple's ever going to update Safari and Keynote.

[E's Lil Theorem]

Eug covered all the points I'd want to make about your post, so I wont beat a dead horse. Though there's this:

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
....

I know what you're thinking. CRAP! Familiarity with a trusted system? Windows a trusted system? CRAP!...

I'm not sure you're missing their point on purpose to knock Microsoft while you're at it or if you really don't get what they're saying. I'll assume the latter and tell you what they mean. See, if you've been drinking Coke your whole life and all of a sudden you're introduced to Pepsi, how likely is it that you'll switch? Leave Coke, the drink you've had for years, your trusted drink, for something completely new? I mean, it tastes okay now, but will I miss Coke too much later?

Okay, my analogy is not exactly a perfect fit, but you get the point. When they say a "trusted system" they mean, a system that they know works for them. Many people don't like fixing things that aren't broken.

[Sherwin]

If the stock analyists were any good, they'd be sitting on the back of their own yacht getting a massage by a semi-naked Brazilian supermodel and thus be far too busy to tell anyone else what the stocks are up to.

[G4ME]

and i would be right there next to them.

[osxpinot]

What am I missing here? Isn't there supposed to be a big lawsuit. You know, Apple vs. Apple. That's going to be a huge pay out, right?

And anyways, I don't trust any of the analysts because I don't feel that they understand Apple. These people have been saying that AAPL would never break $40. Look at what has happened.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by osxpinot:
What am I missing here? Isn't there supposed to be a big lawsuit. You know, Apple vs. Apple. That's going to be a huge pay out, right?

It's in the SEC filing.

The case hasn't even been tried yet. And even they settle, or if Apple Computer loses, it depends on what you mean by huge pay out.

[turtle777]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
One analyst predicted Apple would hit $100. Another $77. So I bought stock at $69. What happens?

The moron is YOU !

You believed the analysts ! Bwahahaha. Take it as a lesson !

I've been there, done it and lost money. That's the way you learn it.

-t

[osxpinot]

Sorry for being so vauge. I kind of expect there to be a huge settlement between the Apples, and when news breaks, I could see their stock plummeting.

[osxpinot]

Some are saying that is could be the biggest settlement in history, and I feel that mac sales are pretty slow. I'm impressed with their new iMac G5, but I'm skeptical about its success. Perhaps we should observe the decision that Jobs made with his stock; he would know more about the situation than we do. For these reasons, I would not touch Apple's stock now. However, back in the days of the $13 shares, I would have.

[MountainMac]

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
So I bought stock at $69. What happens?

I would like to personally thank you for purchasing, for $69, the AAPL stock I purchased at $22, enabling me to turn a paper profit of $47 a share into a realized profit of $47 a share.

[His Dudeness]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
So you buy at $69, the stock drops to $62, and you call the analyst the moron?

Personally, I think it's nice to see that AAPL has gotten hit with a dose of reality. Sux 2 be u I guess.

That's not his point. His point is that stocks go up or down based on some whimsical statement some unknown stock analyst spouts out.

[DeathToWindows]

my usual post in AAPL-stock threads:

I got 10 shares at 17.10...

And whatever money I make off it goes towards getting me a D70

[Nodnarb]

I bought 100 shares at $34.56 and sold it at $55. This was before all the analysts raised their target prices and the stock jumped, but I am still extremely pleased with the money I made. The day after I sold it is when the target prices were raised, and I considered getting back in but I decided not to just for that reason.

As to the original poster, you bought the stock almost at it's all time high. Apple is a great company and is going strong, but come on $100? Be realistic. For passing at $12 and then buying at $69, you almost deserve that.

[DeathToWindows]

Originally posted by brandon420506:
Be realistic.

The Haiku of Investment Advice.

be realistic
embrace your fortuninate gain
kiss lady of fortune