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t_hah · Mar 3, 2005, 11:15 AM

I am looking at AAPL stock vaule... they are down 6% today? Interesting...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL

Xeo · Mar 3, 2005, 11:19 AM

I wonder what the deal is.

E's Lil Theorem · Mar 3, 2005, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by t_hah:
I am looking at AAPL stock vaule... they are down 6% today? Interesting...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL

Not sure what it is given that there hasn't been any negative news that I know of. If you look at the volume, there isn't a whole lot of activity going on either.

Hmm...

DeathMan · Mar 3, 2005, 11:27 AM

its the market correcting itself. these fluctuations aren't always tied to news or products or whatever. could be that quite a few people are feeling like they're done riding the apple train, and just wanted to sell.

dreilly1 · Mar 3, 2005, 11:28 AM

I read a few articles recently stating that Apple is overvalued right now relative to other PC makers like Dell, and that it is "priced for perfection" right now. Also, some people might just be locking in gains after the split.

All I know is I'm glad I locked in some of my gains earlier this week (when it was closer to 45), and held on to the puts that I bought right after the split was announced.

t_hah · Mar 3, 2005, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by DeathMan:
its the market correcting itself. these fluctuations aren't always tied to news or products or whatever. could be that quite a few people are feeling like they're done riding the apple train, and just wanted to sell.

Yeah, that is what I am thinking too... maybe it is a good time to buy then. :-)

sworthy · Mar 3, 2005, 12:17 PM

This is a weird time for it though, some analysts just upped their estimates yesterday and another last week. I hope this isn't a sign of impending doom and more just a few people taking some profits. If you look at the 3 month chart this barely looks like a blip. I'll hold.

driven · Mar 3, 2005, 12:22 PM

Who do you all use for a stock broker?

(Assuming I wanted to purchase some stock?)
My company no longer has the ability to do this since our last merger.

t_hah · Mar 3, 2005, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by driven:
Who do you all use for a stock broker?

(Assuming I wanted to purchase some stock?)
My company no longer has the ability to do this since our last merger.

I use Scottrade.com.

They are fairly simple to set-up, and pretty good with service and fees.

E's Lil Theorem · Mar 3, 2005, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by driven:
Who do you all use for a stock broker?

(Assuming I wanted to purchase some stock?)
My company no longer has the ability to do this since our last merger.

If you want to do some "small time" trading, I recommend Scottradre (though they'll handle your supah-pimp portfolio as well). Their fees are pretty low at $7 per trade and you only need $500 to start an account.

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 12:38 PM

It's the price of oil. Crude has risen to over $54 a barrel today and that hits the Nasdaq. The way it works with a stock like AAPL is that when there is no news the price of the stock is closely aligned with the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq acts like a lid on a boiling pot. When it is lifted up the steam (price) rises. When the lid comes down the steam becomes pent up inside the pot. This is only for a strong company. A weak company will fall even if the Nasdaq goes up.

Apple is a strong company at the moment so there's no need to fear about them. But keep an eye on the price of oil. The higher it is the more it costs to ship products. That cuts profit margins.

dreilly1 · Mar 3, 2005, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by driven:
Who do you all use for a stock broker?

Stay away from Ameritrade. They suck.

The more I learn about stocks and options, the more I realize this.

I'll be moving on to something else (maybe ScottTrade?) when the timing is better for me.

BRussell · Mar 3, 2005, 12:51 PM

Could it have something to do with this?

Napster, the music downloading phenomenon reborn as a subscription service, on Thursday boosted its quarterly sales outlook on better-than-expected demand, sending shares up 10 percent.

The Los Angeles-based company said it expects revenue of about $15 million for its fiscal fourth quarter ending March 31, up from its prior projection of $14 million .

Shares of Napster (Research) were up 70 cents to $7.50 on Nasdaq.

Shares of rival Apple Computer Inc. (Research) fell $1.75 to $42.38, down 4 percent, following the news of the early success of Napster's smaller music subscription service, which competes head-on with Apple's iTunes service.

Note, however, that although Napster's revenues were higher than expected, they're still bleeding money.

discotronic · Mar 3, 2005, 12:51 PM

Most stocks take a small dive after a spit. Every time Johnson & Johnson has a spit their stock will take a steady dive for about 2 weeks and then go back up. Most other stocks are the same.

E's Lil Theorem · Mar 3, 2005, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by BRussell:
Could it have something to do with this?

Note, however, that although Napster's revenues were higher than expected, they're still bleeding money.

Ah, so that may be it.

Originally posted by discotronic:
Most stocks take a small dive after a spit. Every time Johnson & Johnson has a spit their stock will take a steady dive for about 2 weeks and then go back up. Most other stocks are the same.

I did not know that spitting could do that to a company's stock

But, really, it depends on the company. Sometimes that lag after a split you're talking about last a little longer, sometimes there's no lag at all.

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 12:57 PM

Napster's success, if you can call it a success, have very little effect on Apple as the Music Store is not a big money maker for AAPL. Look at the Nasdaq's pattern. Watch it everyday. AAPL is almost exactly the same as the Nasdaq whenever there is no news.

E's Lil Theorem · Mar 3, 2005, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Napster's success, if you can call it a success, have very little effect on Apple as the Music Store is not a big money maker for AAPL. Look at the Nasdaq's pattern. Watch it everyday. AAPL is almost exactly the same as the Nasdaq whenever there is no news.

Well, it does effect the stock when a lot people have been buying based on analyst projections of iTMS. Basically, many of them think that iTMS on its own could have a slight impact on Apple profit numbers by the end of the year and actually be very profitable starting in 2006.

driven · Mar 3, 2005, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Napster's success, if you can call it a success, have very little effect on Apple as the Music Store is not a big money maker for AAPL. Look at the Nasdaq's pattern. Watch it everyday. AAPL is almost exactly the same as the Nasdaq whenever there is no news.

But might not the success of NAPSTER imply sales of non-iPOD devices, or least the acceptance of a "rental" music (subscription) model?

BRussell · Mar 3, 2005, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
Napster's success, if you can call it a success, have very little effect on Apple as the Music Store is not a big money maker for AAPL. Look at the Nasdaq's pattern. Watch it everyday. AAPL is almost exactly the same as the Nasdaq whenever there is no news.

I think you're right in general, but not today. Apple is down 5-6%, NASDAQ is holding steady, maybe down a fraction of a percent.

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 01:16 PM

The dip has very little to do with Napster. Just do yourself a favor. I watch the Nasdaq and AAPL every single day. They are almost always in synch when there's no AAPL news. They are in synch today too. Nasdaq up, AAPL up. Nasdaq down, AAPL down. The oil price sent Nasdaq down today. Don't play the stock market if you're worried that there is some behind the scenes secret or Napster will have an effect. You're playing with hard earned money you should not be losing and you will lose if you panic.

Will Napster impact iPod sales? No. Most who will use the service already have compatible players. Anyone who looks at the cost of buying a badly designed music player and the cost of subscribing to Napster for a long time to keep the music they're downloading is going to double-think their investment. People are fashion conscious too. Who wants to walk around with a music player with 20 buttons on it and everybody smirking at you?

Keep oil and the Nasdaq in mind. Watch it all the time.

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by BRussell:
I think you're right in general, but not today. Apple is down 5-6%, NASDAQ is holding steady, maybe down a fraction of a percent.

It's not about percentages. Look at the graphs for both. Do that everyday.

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 01:18 PM

Also look at Piper Jaffrey's report on MacNN yesterday. The iTunes Music Store has been performing stronger than expected post holiday season and has already exceeded this quarter's estimates. It's not Napster, it's oil.

Ganesha · Mar 3, 2005, 01:19 PM

So their projected gross went from 14 million to 15 million?

Let's do the math. $1 million more over 3 months @14.95 a month = 22,295 new subscribers.

And these are likely the all you can eat subscribers, the kind the casual user subsidizes. The reason the Napster model will fail IMO is because for the cost of a 1 month subscription, a casual user can buy ~14-15 tracks.

NetFlix on the other hand, costs only 1-2 new DVD's per month. Which means it its a much better deal for casual users. For Napster to offer the same deal as NeFlix does to me, their cost as to be $1.99/mo.

chris v · Mar 3, 2005, 01:22 PM

I don't think Napster adding 1 million of sales in an entire quarter could hardly register as a blip, when Apple is moving nearly 1 million songs a day. I'ts probably a mix of profit-taking and bad general market news. The price of oil can't go on like this forever without something giving.

BRussell · Mar 3, 2005, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
It's not about percentages. Look at the graphs for both. Do that everyday.

Of course, it's true for any stock - they generally follow the index. Individual stocks make up the index, so how could it not be the case. And many people buy and sell in groups rather than individual stocks.

But it appears today that Apple is down while the index is steady. How can it not be about percentages? The Nasdaq is in the 2000s and AAPL is in the 40s.

ManOfSteal · Mar 3, 2005, 02:12 PM

I'll buy AAPL at $5.00/share...I like this down trend!

RonnieoftheRose · Mar 3, 2005, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by BRussell:
How can it not be about percentages? The Nasdaq is in the 2000s and AAPL is in the 40s.

Not percentages. If Nasdaq fell 6% AAPL would fall 50%! Instead think of the Nasdaq as having an accelerating and deccelerating effect. Or even better the boiling pot metaphor I used. One some days 1 point off the Nasdaq can be 10 cents off Apple. One another 1 point can equal 50 cents. It depends on the speed of the Nasdaq's movement.

Look at today's chart. Nasdaq had a fast drop instead of a slow one in the morning. That knocked AAPL down 6% quickly. The chart then zigzags for an hour or two, up and down a little. So does AAPL's. Then it steadied and is now rising slowly. So is AAPL. Now if there was bad news for AAPL it wouldn't follow Nasdaq's lead. It would instead drop even if the Nasdaq went up or kept its place. This is good news because it means AAPL is a strong company that is at the moment only effected by the price of oil. If AAPL had some good news like new products or sales figures then it would outperform Nasdaq's day to day pattern.

Simply put, when the oil price rises people start to sell stocks in companies that rely on international shipping services because they are scared profits will take a hit. It's stupid but that's how people are.

b11051973 · Mar 3, 2005, 02:49 PM

I would try Napster in a second if they supported iPods. I'd like to try the subscription model for a month or 2. I don't spend much on iTMS because I don't really know what to buy. With a subscription, I could just download the top 10,000 songs and go through some of them and give a listen. The 30 second sample on iTMS just isn't enough.

Like on iTMS they have top radio or billboard lists. 93X is the big rock station here. I could just download that 93X's playlist and listen to it. Or I could pick from from LA or New York. Of course with companies like Clear Channel owning everything, the playlists are probably the same.

All I know is that I'd like to at least try a subscription service once. Of course it has to work with my iPods. I hope Apple offers it someday. Sooner, rather than later.

E's Lil Theorem · Mar 3, 2005, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by RonnieoftheRose:
...
Simply put, when the oil price rises people start to sell stocks in companies that rely on international shipping services because they are scared profits will take a hit. It's stupid but that's how people are.

Then why aren't the tech market leaders in the same boat as AAPL today? Look at HPQ, up half a point; MSFT, down one-third of a point; DELL, down one-third of a point. AAPL is the only that's down five-plus points and the only news out there, besides the absurd oil prices, are the Napster numbers. In my opinion, there's some correlation between those news and AAPL being down that much. If you don't believe that, that's fine, but it seems many investors do.

Big Mac · Mar 3, 2005, 03:03 PM

Guys, it's called profit taking, mixed with stop loss orders. Apple's valuation has been obscenely high, so people will sell to take advantage of the gains.

chris v · Mar 3, 2005, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Big Mac:
Guys, it's called profit taking, mixed with stop loss orders. Apple's valuation has been obscenely high, so people will sell to take advantage of the gains.

Exactly. Apple's been at or near a 52-week high for over a month. However, it's starting to plane out a little. Lock in profits now. Sell high is the idea. If you can triple your money in a year, why risk it if the trend is off the steep climb?

Busemann · Mar 3, 2005, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by chris v:
Exactly. Apple's been at or near a 52-week high for over a month. However, it's starting to plane out a little. Lock in profits now. Sell high is the idea. If you can triple your money in a year, why risk it if the trend is off the steep climb?

I think it's pretty safe to buy now, though. Just because it is high doesn't mean it can't go (much) higher.

Lateralus · Mar 3, 2005, 04:08 PM

Heh... I had intended to buy $3,500 worth of AAPL the Monday after the split.

Glad I didn't.

sworthy · Mar 3, 2005, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Busemann:
I think it's pretty safe to buy now, though. Just because it is high doesn't mean it can't go (much) higher.

It's certainly not a great time to buy, but the outlook keeps getting better, so why not?

itai195 · 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Busemann:
I think it's pretty safe to buy now, though. Just because it is high doesn't mean it can't go (much) higher.

That doesn't sound like my definition of a 'safe buy.' I'd guess that there are a ton of investors just waiting for the slightest news to feel pessimistic about AAPL and take some profits. Napster provided that opportunity today. People just don't give tech companies an inch of slack anymore. 6% isn't the kind of drop I'd worry about if I owned AAPL, but I wouldn't buy it now, personally.

I'm surprised to see people quoting analysts in this thread... are these the same analysts who were [obviously] wrong about AAPL in 2002 when they pounded it into dust? It was a great value, hovering around $12.