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Hash · Sep 13, 2006, 10:07 AM

It is just my opinion, so take it with grain of salt, but I think that Apple's model of movie distribution has already won the movie distribution wars before even it began. The iTV is a key in this strategy and it was brilliantly planned and executed. We hear a lot of complaints about compression quality, pricing and so on, but I tell you - Apple has already won. I maybe wrong regarding many details - so sorry if I make mistakes-

Now, why I think so:

Let's imagine an average movie viewer. What options he has? Renting DVD, buying a DVD or a tape, subscribing to a movie channel, watching terrestrial TV. Now he has an option of buying his content in iTunes store (more about Amazon later). Why would he do it while DVD are cheaper, has better quality and Netflix rentals suit him fine?

iTV/iTunes system (it is a system - iTV is extremely important here) creates a network system which builds infrastructure for movie watching (later about quality and pricing).

1. Building infrastructure:
Apple movie system consists of iTunes/Mac AND PC + iTV + TV

Any DVD system consists of DVD player + TV

Looks like DVD system is a winner until you notice that you usually use only one DVD player per TV. The Apple movie system lets you hook various TVs to a computer. I am not sure about details, but if Mac/PC works as a usual server, iTV as a usual wireless router, then a home computer actually can supply different movies to different TVs at same time.
Forgive if I am wrong, but it can also supply music as well. Same with videocameras and photos from digital camera. All what is needed is probably USB wireless adapter.

Even if the bandwith is not enough, still you can play various movies without of course changing DVDs and so on. Soon, you will use only your Mac/PC for movie viewing - it is so much comfortable. Think of families using Apple movie system. While children view again and again Incredibles, parents can watch Aliens from a same computer and same iTV. So with rising number of TV, your total costs of movie viewing system will fall with AMS and increase with usual DVD setup. With average family and home size, probably Apple system is more economical.

2. Quality: DVD quality is fixed; Blu Ray quality requires much more expensive special players and HDTV sets. As bandwith and internet connection speed increase, so can Apple tweak its movies to higher resolution and quality - Netflix cannot do it, at least without changing its stock of DVDs. So Apple is not limited in quality or limited only by bandwith which is increasing, while usual DVDs stuck with old quality and new BR or HDDVD requires substantial investment in new disks and players.

3. Convenience: having movies streaming is much more convenient than either waiting for rented DVD to come or searching for DVD disks bargains somewhere. So pricing includes price for convenience, similar to music price for iTunes.

4. Once movie store is opened, I predict that independent movie studios and companies will gladly sell their movies on iTunes: distribution was always hard for them. Watch out for good independent movies which couldn't get enough cinemas to play to reappear on iTunes. Soon the selection will grow exponentially. I think its going to be a bit like YouTube but only through iTunes and some content may be free - like trailers of course, but also some older movies perhaps, documentaries, public TV programs and so on.

5. You have no wait time as for Netflix and this is a great advantage of electronic files over physical discs. You do not have to go anywhere to rent, you do not have to wait. Its here.

6. Once the physical infrastructure of computer/itV/TV is built around iTunes, FrontRow and maybe some newer Apple apps, you have Apple's HOME ENTERTAINMENT CENTER ready for anything - not only movies. Jobs' dream is fulfilled.

Dork. · Sep 13, 2006, 11:09 AM

From what I've seen, iTV is basically a set-top box that uses wireless to stream content from a video server elsewhere in the house. So, you will need one for each TV. And there's probably an upper limit to the number of streams that you will be able to support at one time. It would be nice if the iTV had local storage, so that you can keep the kids' shows on their own iTV and play them without consuming bandwidth in the rest of the house.

I think the killer app would be the ability to load all sorts of video into the video server: home movies, movies ripped from DVD, and some sort of DVR function. These don't need to be supported by Apple (And the movies ripped from DVD bit definitely would not be), but third parties could step in and fill the gap, like Airfoil for the Airport Express.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 01:49 PM

There really isn't any information about the iTV and what it will and will not support. If it can do HD and I can rip my DVDs and play them through the system easily... I'll buy one.

Without that, I'm out.

turtle777 · Sep 13, 2006, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

There really isn't any information about the iTV and what it will and will not support. If it can do HD and I can rip my DVDs and play them through the system easily... I'll buy one.

Yes, it can do HD, the examples that Steve was showing were in HD, not 640*480, from what I read.
The box should be able to handle future HD content that Apple will provide.

-t

itai195 · Sep 13, 2006, 01:59 PM

Needs to do HD for me. Plus I'm not really interested in buying movies. If Apple puts in a subscription service like Netflix then I'm definitely interested. Apple has been quick to the punch in this area again. Sony and Microsoft are talking about implementing digital distribution for games and movies in 5 years.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 02:09 PM

Originally Posted by what_the_heck

Yes, it can do HD, the examples that Steve was showing were in HD, not 640*480, from what I read.
The box should be able to handle future HD content that Apple will provide.

-t

720p... 1080i... 1080p... bla bla bla. We really don't know much about the system. The HDMI is very interesting, but there are too many unknown elements to this. I just think there are too many unknowns to say this is a great system.

Gossamer · Sep 13, 2006, 02:15 PM

I think $300 is a fairly high price point to be able just to watch content on your TV. For $300 I built an entire silent computer capable of running Knoppmyth, which acts as a DVR, and can record and play live TV, watch DVDs, watch DivX files, play games/surf the web on my TV, not to mention it works as a normal computer too. And if I boot in Windows instead of the Linux distro, I can view all of my iTunes content on my LCD TV (okay, I don't actually have one, but this is theoretical) over DVI/HDMI, and listen to my iTunes music over my optical audio to my home theater receiver/system (I do have that).
Apple better have some hidden features they haven't mentioned, or release it for $100 less or so, otherwise anyone buying it is sacrificing a lot of features for ease of initial setup.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by itai195

Needs to do HD for me. Plus I'm not really interested in buying movies. If Apple puts in a subscription service like Netflix then I'm definitely interested. Apple has been quick to the punch in this area again. Sony and Microsoft are talking about implementing digital distribution for games and movies in 5 years.

I agree. I like renting movies for a reason... I guess I'm holding off to see one in action before dropping $300 on this puppy. I'm about to go HD this fall, but I'm holding off until I move.

itai195 · Sep 13, 2006, 02:19 PM

I don't know that we know all the features iTV will have yet. But not very many people are going to put together a system like yours, Gossamer, so there may be a market for these devices. IF, very hypothetically, it's an HD-capable DVR, that's a lot of value right there for $300.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by Gossamer

I think $300 is a fairly high price point to be able just to watch content on your TV. For $300 I built an entire silent computer capable of running Knoppmyth, which acts as a DVR, and can record and play live TV, watch DVDs, watch DivX files, play games/surf the web on my TV, not to mention it works as a normal computer too. And if I boot in Windows instead of the Linux distro, I can view all of my iTunes content on my LCD TV (okay, I don't actually have one, but this is theoretical) over DVI/HDMI, and listen to my iTunes music over my optical audio to my home theater receiver/system (I do have that).
Apple better have some hidden features they haven't mentioned, or release it for $100 less or so, otherwise anyone buying it is sacrificing a lot of features for ease of initial setup.

Spoken like a true computer nerd. I could also argue that the free PII that I found in the trash is better than a $100 DVD player, because it can play DVDs, games, music, bla bla bla. The only problem is, you are assuming everyone has the same knowledge base as you have AND that "More Features = Better."

Take a look at the iPod. It's not the cheapest music player, it's not the most feature packed... yet is is #1. Why? Because it's easy to use and is a good solution for most people.

$300 isn't outrageous regarding price considering the EyeHome from Elgato runs around $199 for a new unit and the EyeHome doesn't have HD or wireless built in [or great software integration... I own one].

I would argue that MANY of us just want to pay $300 and plug the thing into my TV and have it work.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by itai195

IF, very hypothetically, it's an HD-capable DVR, that's a lot of value right there for $300.

IMHO, that's asking too much considering a Tivo is $300+ and not HD or wireless.

Gossamer · Sep 13, 2006, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

Spoken like a true computer nerd.

I'll admit it...that's why I included the last sentence. If you've got the means and want the convienence, the iTV's for you. If you're willing to put some time and effort into it to save a few bucks or get some more features, then this is the way to go.

itai195 · Sep 13, 2006, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

IMHO, that's asking too much considering a Tivo is $300+ and not HD or wireless.

Last I saw TiVo was way under $300, but they have an HD version coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think it will have DVR features. I don't think that's the direction Apple is going in. They're looking to provide an alternative to cable, satellite, etc, not a supplement.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 02:56 PM

Originally Posted by Gossamer

I'll admit it...that's why I included the last sentence. If you've got the means and want the convienence, the iTV's for you. If you're willing to put some time and effort into it to save a few bucks or get some more features, then this is the way to go.

I agree... I've seen some very cool setups from low end PCs, but it's just not within the grasp of most consumers regarding their technical abilities.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by itai195

Last I saw TiVo was way under $300, but they have an HD version coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think it will have DVR features. I don't think that's the direction Apple is going in. They're looking to provide an alternative to cable, satellite, etc, not a supplement.

I think you can get them for under $300, but you need the service, bla bla bla. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to have Tivo like capabilities, I just don't see it coming from Apple on their first box.

bewebste · Sep 13, 2006, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by itai195

Last I saw TiVo was way under $300, but they have an HD version coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think it will have DVR features. I don't think that's the direction Apple is going in. They're looking to provide an alternative to cable, satellite, etc, not a supplement.

This is true, but I think a third party could definitely fill in this gap. EyeTV could add compatiblity with iTV (hehe) and there's your DVR.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 13, 2006, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by bewebste

This is true, but I think a third party could definitely fill in this gap. EyeTV could add compatiblity with iTV (hehe) and there's your DVR.

That's exactly what I was thinking. It could be very interesting. I see HD content floating around the web all the time.

simonjames · Sep 13, 2006, 04:54 PM

Will there be sufficient bandwidth with current Macs to stream video to it? It sounded like Apple would be implementing a new wireless standard to cope with the demand video makes - can't see how this is going to be backwards compatible.

Apple Pro Underwear · Sep 13, 2006, 09:24 PM

whichever the porn industry support, thus will be born a tech standard

turtle777 · Sep 13, 2006, 10:26 PM

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

720p... 1080i... 1080p... bla bla bla. We really don't know much about the system. The HDMI is very interesting, but there are too many unknown elements to this. I just think there are too many unknowns to say this is a great system.

How about you wait till its realeased before you make your final judgment

-t

Gossamer · Sep 13, 2006, 10:28 PM

Originally Posted by Apple Pro Underwear

whichever the porn industry support, thus will be born a tech standard

That's what my boss says. Watch for the HD/Blu-ray winner from here too.

And re: bandwidth: I think somebody already pointed out that Apple said "802.11," but didn't specify b, g, or n, so I think some are assuming it's 'n.'

turtle777 · Sep 13, 2006, 10:30 PM

Originally Posted by itai195

IF, very hypothetically, it's an HD-capable DVR, that's a lot of value right there for $300.

TiVo HD is $ 799. Think about it !

-t

JoshuaZ · Sep 14, 2006, 01:21 AM

Originally Posted by Apple Pro Underwear

whichever the porn industry support, thus will be born a tech standard

I remember watching some documentary on the Learn Channel about how Porn had moved all the big multimedia technical advances in the past 50 years. Its so darn true though.

Good old internet porn. (stupid Japanese for making theirs all censored!)

awaspaas · Sep 14, 2006, 08:12 AM

Originally Posted by Gossamer

I think $300 is a fairly high price point to be able just to watch content on your TV. For $300 I built an entire silent computer capable of running Knoppmyth, which acts as a DVR, and can record and play live TV, watch DVDs, watch DivX files, play games/surf the web on my TV, not to mention it works as a normal computer too. And if I boot in Windows instead of the Linux distro, I can view all of my iTunes content on my LCD TV (okay, I don't actually have one, but this is theoretical) over DVI/HDMI, and listen to my iTunes music over my optical audio to my home theater receiver/system (I do have that).
Apple better have some hidden features they haven't mentioned, or release it for $100 less or so, otherwise anyone buying it is sacrificing a lot of features for ease of initial setup.

How's HD look on your $300 KnoppMyth box? I spent a whole heck of a lot more than $300 on mine and it's only now starting to be acceptable for HD. I think an Apple box that does great HD is a good deal for $300.

mitchell_pgh · Sep 14, 2006, 08:28 AM

Originally Posted by what_the_heck

How about you wait till its realeased before you make your final judgment

-t

Who said I made my final judgement

I'm simply responding to the TITLE of this thread... "Why iTV and Apple already won movie rental/buying war" which IMHO seems rather "final judgement" to me.

You made my point. We don't know how iTV will turn out, so until it's out, I'm going to hold judgement. It looked great during the presentation, but I would rather see it first hand and perhaps read a few reviews before making any decision as to how good or how bad it is.

itai195 · Sep 14, 2006, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by what_the_heck

TiVo HD is $ 799. Think about it !

-t

That would be why I said it'd be a good value. Dish has a dual tuner HD-DVR for $300 but that's a lease. Doesn't really matter to me either way, I don't have Comcast service and don't plan to ever again.