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The Left · Nov 24, 2006 , 09:22 AM

who is winning the blu-ray/hd-dvd format war?

Eug · Nov 24, 2006 , 09:24 AM

Right now, HD DVD.

FWIW, this is a real-time assessment of the race at Amazon.com: The DVD Wars

To give you an idea... Only the #1 Blu-ray seller is in the top 1000 at Amazon.com, whereas the top 8 HD DVDs are all in the top 1000.

The Left · Nov 24, 2006 , 09:52 AM

interesting! thanks for posting that link!

mitchell_pgh · Nov 24, 2006 , 10:56 AM

IMHO, HD-DVD seems to be ahead, but the real question is... will the PS3 impact the future of Blue-ray?

500,000 units saturating the market is significant considering HD-DVD isn't standard on the Xbox 360.

We'll just have to see. One negative point for Blue-Ray is the price of the units. $1000 at Best Buy is going to make a considerable number of people either go HD-DVD or wait for PS3 units.

rickey939 · Nov 24, 2006 , 11:00 AM

Anything with "HD" in the name should do better.

Dark Helmet · Nov 24, 2006 , 11:17 AM

Wait till everyone who wants an PS3 gets one and then ask.

By mid next year it should be very different.

Blu-Ray has also shown it can look just as good or better than HD-DVD with the latest titles like X3 so the former advantage in that area that HD-DVD in that area is gone.

mac128k-1984 · Nov 24, 2006 , 12:13 PM

I've only seen commercials that tout blu-ray. While I don't know which one is technically better or which one may be winning the marketing war, I have only see stuff about blu-ray

Eug · Nov 24, 2006 , 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by Dark Helmet

Wait till everyone who wants an PS3 gets one and then ask.

By mid next year it should be very different.

Perhaps, or perhaps not.

Given the very low apparent Blu-ray disc attachment rate for the PS3, it seems that PS3 owners aren't really as into HD movies as others.

My prediction is that by summer 2007, Blu-ray disc sales numbers may be more competitive than now compared to HD DVD... which means that nobody wins the far. ie. I'm predicting a stalemate in 2007.

The other thing is I'm predicting that Sony's prediction of 6 million PS3s by March 2007 will simply be another missed target.

Blu-Ray has also shown it can look just as good or better than HD-DVD with the latest titles like X3 so the former advantage in that area that HD-DVD in that area is gone.

That's just it. Blu-ray has been saying for just about forever that they're better, but only recently have they equalled HD DVD in image quality.

The HD DVD players cost half as much, but the image quality was either the same or was better.

mac128k-1984 · Nov 24, 2006 , 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Eug

Given the very low apparent Blu-ray disc attachment rate for the PS3, it seems that PS3 owners aren't really as into HD movies as others.

Add in the fact that Sony failed to reach their published estimates on the PS3. MSNBC While I do expect the PS3 to be a success its quite surprising to see that sony forcasted 400,000 units but sold only between 125,000 and 175,000 on the first day.

To bring this home regarding the thread, lack of huge PS3 numbers means less blu-ray units being sold.

- - e r i k - - · Nov 24, 2006 , 07:41 PM

Judging by how long this has taken I'd say that no one really gives a crap about either format. Especially the people with already huge DVD collections.

alligator · Nov 24, 2006 , 07:47 PM

This is extremely relevant. I was just considering getting a player today. I checked the Netflix collection, and they have slightly more HD-DVD discs (about 5-10 titles more) than Blu-Ray. Either one appears to be up for the title. However, with the price of the Toshiba HD-DVD player (A2), it looks like this will be the best player in town.

Uriel · Nov 24, 2006 , 08:04 PM

Right now I'm siding with HD-DVD only because it's cost me $150 dollars to get the 360 HD-DVD player. I already had the 360 so this was a good deal for me.

Another plus is the fact that the USB hookup can also work (after downoading drivers) under XP. Hopefully there will be a OS X driver someday, I know it sees the drive.

I hope one format wins soon, It's frustrating seeing the splits on the studios. I just want nicer looking video!

Art Vandelay · Nov 24, 2006 , 08:13 PM

Originally Posted by mac128k-1984

Add in the fact that Sony failed to reach their published estimates on the PS3. MSNBC While I do expect the PS3 to be a success its quite surprising to see that sony forcasted 400,000 units but sold only between 125,000 and 175,000 on the first day.

To bring this home regarding the thread, lack of huge PS3 numbers means less blu-ray units being sold.

If I'm reading what you said correctly, you misunderstood that article. It sounds like you're implying that the PS3 isn't selling as well as expected. However, the article states that Sony shipped only 125K-175K units instead of the 400K estimated.

mac128k-1984 · Nov 24, 2006 , 08:17 PM

Originally Posted by Art Vandelay

If I'm reading what you said correctly, you misunderstood that article. It sounds like you're implying that the PS3 isn't selling as well as expected. However, the article states that Sony shipped only 125K-175K units instead of the 400K estimated.

I don't think I misunderstood it, perhaps my wording in the thread. The analyst was stating that the PS3 failed to achieve its inital goals which sony set. Sony remains committed to hitting their goals for year end sales but inital day sails were far below expectations (125k - 175k) instead of the 400k

My post was two fold, I don't think that the failure to hit the estimates means that the PS3 will be a failure but less units means less blu-ray drives getting into the hands of the consumers.

TailsToo · Nov 24, 2006 , 09:31 PM

I'm not buying either - their greed is not going to be enhanced by my wallet. The biggest loser in all of this is the consumer - remember betamax?

Art Vandelay · Nov 24, 2006 , 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by mac128k-1984

I don't think I misunderstood it, perhaps my wording in the thread. The analyst was stating that the PS3 failed to achieve its inital goals which sony set. Sony remains committed to hitting their goals for year end sales but inital day sails were far below expectations (125k - 175k) instead of the 400k

My post was two fold, I don't think that the failure to hit the estimates means that the PS3 will be a failure but less units means less blu-ray drives getting into the hands of the consumers.

Are you equating units shipped with units sold? I'm interpreting what you're saying as demand isn't as strong as Sony had estimated, hence the lower numbers. However, what's really happening is that Sony is failing to ship as many units as they predicted due to supply problems whatever they may be. Sony isn't supplying as many as they hoped so the PS3 is even more scarce.

In either case, you're right that the number of Blu-ray drives getting out there is lower.

Brien · Nov 25, 2006 , 01:25 AM

You know, with studios backing both formats, and dual-format players on the horizon, I think it'll end up a non-issue.

Millennium · Nov 25, 2006 , 01:43 AM

Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh

IMHO, HD-DVD seems to be ahead, but the real question is... will the PS3 impact the future of Blue-ray?

That's what Sony is betting the farm on. However, there are some significant problems with that. Among other things, Sony created a rather impressive parts shortage with the PS3, hurting not only themselves but also other companies that make (or wish to make) Blu-Ray drives.

500,000 units saturating the market is significant considering HD-DVD isn't standard on the Xbox 360.

That would be true, but Sony hasn't been able to ship anywhere near 500,000 units yet, so the point is moot.

alligator · Nov 25, 2006 , 09:38 AM

Here's what bugs me. One format is obviously a better picture quality, one format holds more data per disc than the other, and one format has a lower priced player. Now which of these is more important?

I really, really wish these stupid manufacturers would learn to play nice in the sandbox and agree on a common format. Instead of advancing society for the good of all people on this planet, they choose to fight over a money instead. Just agree on a format, and then innovate and make the next HD sucessor technology.

Eug Wanker · Nov 25, 2006 , 10:10 AM

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - -

Judging by how long this has taken I'd say that no one really gives a crap about either format. Especially the people with already huge DVD collections.

That's a fair assessment. HD DVD is beating Blu-ray right now, but both pale in comparison to DVD, and will continue to do so for several years.