[sek929]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Eug and GoMac's track recored of REALLY off predictions which has been outlined here.

K, NM, I thought you were talking about me.

[sek929]

Also, if you are going to talk about bad press the 360 has a warehouse more of that than the PS3.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Eug and GoMac's track recored of REALLY off predictions which has been outlined here.

I said the 360 would have the highest marketshare, you said the PS3... the Wii has the highest marketshare, and somehow this puts you in a position to criticize?

You were the one who said the Wii wouldn't sell and it would be Nintendo's last console. Where do you get the idea that you're in a position to criticize me about the Wii's success? I was the one who said it would be successful....

[cjrivera]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

I'm getting ready to do that too, but I'm waiting for the next release of Handbrake that will support 5.1 audio on the new AppleTV.

Is that a fact or something you're hoping will be coming soon?
I was thinking of starting to rip my DVD collection using Handbrake, but I would wait if that's a confirmed feature in the next release.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Eug and GoMac's track recored of REALLY off predictions which has been outlined here.

Well, which predictions? Feel free to outline them.

My main prediction that I remember that was totally off was my belief that a final HD DVD vs. Blu-ray winner wouldn't likely be apparent until 2009 or late 2008. I freely admit I'm wrong on that one. As for who would win, I've always said Blu-ray had the advantage (but I've preferred if HD DVD would win, because I think the technology as a whole is superior).

OTOH, I also predicted that the PS3 would not have awesome sales, because of its high price, and despite its "free" WiFi and Blu-ray. Last I checked that is completely true.

Originally Posted by cjrivera 

Is that a fact or something you're hoping will be coming soon?
I was thinking of starting to rip my DVD collection using Handbrake, but I would wait if that's a confirmed feature in the next release.

I had thought that was something that would not hit Handbrake for quite some time yet.

VisualHub will do it though apparently.

[ort888]

The bottom line is that Sony traded places with Nintendo this generation. Now they get to enjoy fighting Microsoft for a distant second place while Nintendo drives off into the sunset.

Even if they sell more then the 360 next year, or even surpass them, all of their efforts to this point can only be seen as a complete and total failure. You just can't spin it into a positive for Sony.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by cjrivera 

Is that a fact or something you're hoping will be coming soon?
I was thinking of starting to rip my DVD collection using Handbrake, but I would wait if that's a confirmed feature in the next release.

Handbrake already does 5.1. I have "Big Trouble" ripping with 5.1 right now.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by ort888 

The bottom line is that Sony traded places with Nintendo this generation. Now they get to enjoy fighting Microsoft for a distant second place while Nintendo drives off into the sunset.

Even if they sell more then the 360 next year, or even surpass them, all of their efforts to this point can only be seen as a complete and total failure. You just can't spin it into a positive for Sony.

I disagree. With the Blu-ray win, the PS3 will not be a completely and total failure. The sales should be decent, and may even beat the 360 on a monthly basis over the next year on average. It's just that they won't see the stellar comparative sales they saw with the PS2.

Originally Posted by goMac 

Handbrake already does 5.1. I have "Big Trouble" ripping with 5.1 right now.

OK, I'm now officially confused. When did this come out?

EDIT:

OK, it came out today. That's why I didn't know about it.

[ort888]

Blu-ray may have won... but the problem is that the video game market is a lot more profitable then the home video market.

They traded their HUGE lead in the gaming industry for the next HD format. How much do you think they get for each Blu-ray disc sold? Probably not that much compared to how much they got for every PS2 game sold.

Will Blu-ray ever be that big? I suspect that even at the height of it's popularity, it will still be somewhat of a secondary format. Playing a supporting role to either DVDs or digital downloads.

Was that worth sacrificing the lead in the games sector?

I don't know. My gut says no, but then again, I'm not Sony. I would hope that they would know what they are doing.

We'll see.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Blu-ray may have won... but the problem is that the video game market is a lot more profitable then the home video market.

They traded their HUGE lead in the gaming industry for the next HD format. How much do you think they get for each Blu-ray disc sold? Probably not that much compared to how much they got for every PS2 game sold.

Will Blu-ray ever be that big? I suspect that even at the height of it's popularity, it will still be somewhat of a secondary format. Playing a supporting role to either DVDs or digital downloads.

Was that worth sacrificing the lead in the games sector?

I don't know. My gut says no, but then again, I'm not Sony. I would hope that they would know what they are doing.

We'll see.

The movie disc market is huge. Royalties per disc are smaller, but the whole industry is an order of magnitude larger.

You do bring up a good point though. It's entirely possible that Blu-ray will remain niche. Nonetheless, Sony had already made its bed so it had to lie in it. Sony bet the farm on Blu-ray. And had Sony's original release targets have been achieved (with better price points - even the Sony CEO was shocked at the PS3's costs), there wouldn't have even been a movie disc war, and the PS3 would be firmly ahead of the 360.

However, Blu-ray had technology delays and cost overruns, which allowed the movie disc war to happen, and which allowed the 360 to get a 1 year head-start on the PS3.

Ultimately, Sony still managed to get the Blu-ray win, but it got hit hard along the way. Now it's easy to say all this in retrospect, but at the time I'm sure Sony (probably too confidently) thought they could do it quicker and for less cost.

[goMac]

In a way, Microsoft played it very smart. They let Sony take the initial hit from investing heavily in Bluray, and then when Bluray drive production costs come down, they can include a Bluray drive and maintain their advantage over the PS3.

[cjrivera]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Handbrake already does 5.1. I have "Big Trouble" ripping with 5.1 right now.

thanks!

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

In a way, Microsoft played it very smart. They let Sony take the initial hit from investing heavily in Bluray, and then when Bluray drive production costs come down, they can include a Bluray drive and maintain their advantage over the PS3.

I don't think that was necessarily the primary driver of MS's path here.

The main reason was time to market, along with cost. If you can shave $50+ off the manufacturing cost of a console, and get it out to your customers a whole year before the competition, that's a huge incentive to leave a piece of technology out, especially when you don't really need it anyway. (The PS3 does have a optical storage advantage, but nonetheless the games are rated inferior to the 360's.)

[ort888]

Blu-ray victory means royalties, royalties, royalties | Tech news blog - CNET News.com

Looks like DVD royalties started around $15-$20 per player and 7.5 cents per disc.

To put this into perspective, the average royalty on a new game is between $5 and $10.

I'm sure the Sony bean counters have crunched these numbers until their fingers bled, but it doesn't seem like a good trade off to me.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by ort888 

The bottom line is that Sony traded places with Nintendo this generation. Now they get to enjoy fighting Microsoft for a distant second place while Nintendo drives off into the sunset.

Even if they sell more then the 360 next year, or even surpass them, all of their efforts to this point can only be seen as a complete and total failure. You just can't spin it into a positive for Sony.

Sony won the format war almost entirely thanks to the PS3. (Just imagine if the only way you could play a Blu-ray movie was on a standalone that was twice as expensive as an HD-DVD model. If there had been the case, BR wouldn't have been consistently selling more, and Sony wouldn't have been in a position to make the deals with the studios that they did.) That's not a positive?

Originally Posted by ort888 

Blu-ray may have won... but the problem is that the video game market is a lot more profitable then the home video market.

I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about here. Assuming BR does take the place of DVD and doesn't remain a niche format for HD enthusiasts (and frankly I can't see that happening), Sony is in a position to make a LOT more money than Nintendo is on the Wii.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Blu-ray victory means royalties, royalties, royalties | Tech news blog - CNET News.com

Looks like DVD royalties started around $15-$20 per player and 7.5 cents per disc.

To put this into perspective, the average royalty on a new game is between $5 and $10.

I'm sure the Sony bean counters have crunched these numbers until their fingers bled, but it doesn't seem like a good trade off to me.

Video games sales in 2007 were $6.6 billion, while home video sales and rentals were $23.4 billion (and that was down 3% from the previous year. Plus with Blu-ray, you have all the ancillary technologies like computer drives, burners, etc.