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goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES

So you're saying they DO include PS3 sales? If not the number are just more FUD from the HD camp.

Um no. You said the Bluray standalone numbers would be low because of the high PS3 sales. I said I think the numbers are probably from before the PS3 price drop, when the PS3 price drop wouldn't have been affecting Bluray standalone sales.

And honestly, where is the long term viability for these PS3 sales? The more they sell, the faster they will sell out, and there are no more 60 gig units coming when they sell out. It's literally a clearance sale.

Dakarʒ · Jul 18, 2007, 12:00 PM

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 12:04 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

Well they're going to sell sometime. Whether they all sold now or sold over the next year, they were going to be sold. Either way, X number of units would be sold. The problem is, once these units are gone, there aren't any more. It isn't really a meaningful gain, it just means Sony sells a limited amount of units faster.

If Sony wasn't stupid, they'd notice these units are selling well and keep producing the 60 gig version, then they'd have a limitless supply and they'd keep selling tons of units. But in all likelihood, they won't.

Dakarʒ · Jul 18, 2007, 12:10 PM

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

jokell82 · Jul 18, 2007, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES

So you're saying they DO include PS3 sales? If not the number are just more FUD from the HD camp.

FUD from the HD camp? As opposed to all the good data and press releases Sony is known for?

Sony and BD are the *kings* of FUD. There is nothing factually wrong with the numbers in the press release I linked to. But feel free to do the research and prove otherwise.

jokell82 · Jul 18, 2007, 12:17 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

If all PS3 owners were "trying it once," the numbers would be VASTLY different. But they aren't.

Dakarʒ · Jul 18, 2007, 12:21 PM

I didn't say how long it'd take.

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

Yes, but these units were going to be sold eventually anyway. My point is, either way, Sony is selling X number of PS3 units. This isn't sustainable growth.

Either way, these units were going to be in people's homes for them to try Bluray on. In the grand scheme of things, it's not a big deal. It would be a big deal if Sony had a limitless supply and could sustain this sort of growth. But all that's going to happen is after these sell out, PS3 growth is going to drop like a rock. Again, if this was sustainable growth, it would be impressive.

Dakarʒ · Jul 18, 2007, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by goMac

Yes, but these units were going to be sold eventually anyway. My point is, either way, Sony is selling X number of PS3 units. This isn't sustainable growth.

Earlier is better GoMac! How hard is that to understand?

Why would Sony or Blu-Ray want to sell x amount of consoles/titles later rather than now?

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

Earlier is better GoMac! How hard is that to understand?

Why would Sony or Blu-Ray want to sell x amount of consoles/titles later rather than now?

Yes, earlier is better if it means there is going to be long term growth. So yes, Sony is creating a nice base for growth, and then taking away the catalyst. Does that make sense on Sony's part? Not so much. If Sony was continuing to produce the 60 gig unit, I would agree, and say, why yes Dakar, all those 60 gig units that Sony is selling now could inspire other people to buy 60 gig PS3's. But unfortunately, soon the 60 gig PS3 will cease to exist.

In fact, what is more likely to happen is that people will go to the store, look for the cheap PS3 that no longer exists, and instead see an even cheaper HD-DVD player and buy that instead... If this has made anything clear, it's that the price of entry for Bluray is definitely hurting Bluray adoption.

exca1ibur · Jul 18, 2007, 12:50 PM

Not to mention we have no idea what the plan is once they sell out of the 60GB model. All they have to do is make the 80 NOT a bundle and have it start at $499. You now have the same price point. The fact is we have no idea what they are going to do. I doubt they would chop off the $499 price point, again, especially being that would be around holiday time. Thats borderline suicidal, but we shall see.

analogue SPRINKLES · Jul 18, 2007, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by exca1ibur

Not to mention we have no idea what the plan is once they sell out of the 60GB model. All they have to do is make the 80 NOT a bundle and have it start at $499. You now have the same price point. The fact is we have no idea what they are going to do. I doubt they would chop off the $499 price point, again, especially being that would be around holiday time. Thats borderline suicidal, but we shall see.

I would be impressed if Sony dropped the 80 gig PS3 to $499, but I don't see it happening. Sony is still losing money on the PS3, they want to keep the price high. The $499 price point is just where they want to dump old stock. I think Sony is going to hope the PS3 catches on this Christmas and milk it for all it's worth at the $599 price point.

analogue SPRINKLES · Jul 18, 2007, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by jokell82

FUD from the HD camp? As opposed to all the good data and press releases Sony is known for?

Sony and BD are the *kings* of FUD. There is nothing factually wrong with the numbers in the press release I linked to. But feel free to do the research and prove otherwise.

Ya nothing wrong except they purposely exclude data and hope nobody will notice. Funny thing is now every new sources mentions that they are purposely hiding PS3 sales from all sales statistics and they know it would make them look bad.

Dakarʒ · Jul 18, 2007, 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by goMac

Yes, earlier is better if it means there is going to be long term growth. So yes, Sony is creating a nice base for growth, and then taking away the catalyst. Does that make sense on Sony's part? Not so much. If Sony was continuing to produce the 60 gig unit, I would agree, and say, why yes Dakar, all those 60 gig units that Sony is selling now could inspire other people to buy 60 gig PS3's. But unfortunately, soon the 60 gig PS3 will cease to exist.

Do you want me to tell you Sony's strategy is inexplicable? Because yes, I agree that it is. But moving consoles sooner than later is good. If people like it, word of mouth will sell others, sooner.

Originally Posted by goMac

In fact, what is more likely to happen is that people will go to the store, look for the cheap PS3 that no longer exists, and instead see an even cheaper HD-DVD player and buy that instead...

I completely disagree with that. If you go to the store looking for a cheap PS3 and don't find one, chances are you're buying some other game system, be it the 360, Wii, or even the 80GB PS3. Or you just go home.

That is, unless, you believe Analogue's assertion that lots of people are buying PS3s just for the BR drives/HD movies.

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES

Ya nothing wrong except they purposely exclude data and hope nobody will notice. Funny thing is now every new sources mentions that they are purposely hiding PS3 sales from all sales statistics and they know it would make them look bad.

Yeah, but they're not including XBox 360 HD-DVD player stats either. They've never included console sales. Say what you will, but they're really not a reliable indicator because not every PS3 will be used as a Bluray player. Heck, they should be including XBox 360 HD-DVD player sales (what else would you use an XBox 360 HD-DVD for?), but they're not.

goMac · Jul 18, 2007, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

Do you want me to tell you Sony's strategy is inexplicable? Because yes, I agree that it is. But moving consoles sooner than later is good. If people like it, word of mouth will sell others, sooner.

Yeah, but when people hear about this $500 game system, they're going to go looking for it and find it's gone. There's no use building interest in a sku that won't exist in a month or two.

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

I completely disagree with that. If you go to the store looking for a cheap PS3 and don't find one, chances are you're buying some other game system, be it the 360, Wii, or even the 80GB PS3. Or you just go home.

Depends. I think that the $600 PS3 moves back out of range of what a consumer is willing to pay (there is a fancier term for this that I learned in micro economics years ago, but I can't remember it for the life of me...). At that point, if they were interested in the PS3 as a Bluray player, they'll probably take a look at HD-DVD's too. If they were interested in it as a game console, my guess is they'd go for the XBox 360 instead. I think only people who were set on a PS3 in the first place will continue to buy the $600 modal after the $500 one sells out.

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ

That is, unless, you believe Analogue's assertion that lots of people are buying PS3s just for the BR drives/HD movies.

Given the context of this thread, that's how I'm approaching it. Although I'd be more than willing to give you my opinion of the game side of things in the other thread in the games forum.