[TETENAL]

Originally Posted by goMac 

See the chart to the right? Bluray has %60 of all disc sales, HD-DVD has %40. Overall, Bluray is leading about 1.2:1-1.3:1.

60% to 40% is 1.5:1 for me.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by starman 

*sigh*

Next week, I think the numbers are 12 HD-DVD movies, 9 are exclusive vs. 4 Blu-Ray with 1 exclusive.

I'm not talking out of my ass Eug, I'm presenting actual numbers with no bias.

A few numbers ≠ Foregone conclusion for the entire year

You conclude we'll have an outright winner by the end of 2007, which (since you've put it in those terms...) IMO qualifies as talking outta yer ass. I predict we may see an outright winner in 2009 (or even possibly 2008), but definitely not in 2007. We'll see...

[starman]

When did I put it in those terms? I'm just talking about the next report.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by TETENAL 

60% to 40% is 1.5:1 for me.

Yeah, I'm not great at math that late at night. Still, you get the idea.

[icruise]

Beyond that, you also have to remember that the "since inception" numbers include a fairly long stretch before the PS3 came out. So I wouldn't rely too heavily on those. The "year to date" numbers seem to be the most reliable indicators of how things are going. Weekly sales will of course fluctuate depending on what's coming out, although I certainly don't recall HD-DVD ever being so clearly in the majority as Blu-ray is this week.

[jokell82]

I still think those numbers are complete BS. How could their top selling disc be #65 on the Amazon charts? Makes no sense whatsoever.

(Not to say I think HD is selling MORE this week, but i think the numbers are suspect)

[Eug]

Yeah, there's some disconnect, but if I had to choose, I'd choose Nielson numbers over Amazon numbers.

[cSurfr]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

I still think those numbers are complete BS. How could their top selling disc be #65 on the Amazon charts? Makes no sense whatsoever.

(Not to say I think HD is selling MORE this week, but i think the numbers are suspect)

Not everyone that buys blu-ray believes in Amazon. . . I bought 7 movies this weekend, all from different places. . . not one online.

And the same thing goes for when I used to buy HD DVD. . . I thought I should add this before I get flamed.

[jokell82]

You would think it'd at least correlate SOMEWHAT. The same kinds of people are buying these movies - early adopters. It's not like there's a special group that only buys from Amazon.

At least DVD Empire has it in their top 10 - it's number 5. But they also have about a 50/50 ratio for movies this past week, too.

Really all it does is show that no one's numbers are perfect, and judging anything from them definitively is probably not the best thing to do right now. Maybe if Nielsen added Walmart I'd be a little less skeptical. But to not include the single largest DVD distributor makes your numbers suspect from the start.

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

I still think those numbers are complete BS. How could their top selling disc be #65 on the Amazon charts? Makes no sense whatsoever.

(Not to say I think HD is selling MORE this week, but i think the numbers are suspect)

Because contrary to popular belief among people on the internet, most people still buy their titles from brick and mortar stores like HMV, Virgin etc...

To echo what cSurfr said, I have bought all my 22 bluray titles from brick and mortar stores like HMV, A&B Sound and Futureshop.

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

You would think it'd at least correlate SOMEWHAT. The same kinds of people are buying these movies - early adopters. It's not like there's a special group that only buys from Amazon.

I don't see the logic in your statement. Although I buy electronic distributed songs (iTMS) and software through the internet and my MBP from apple.ca, I buy all of my other hardware and titles from brick and mortar stores in the city I live in.

You assume that all early adopters are necessarily going to buy everything online. People that buy movies online from Amazon are a small niché of the market niché that buy any product from Amazon.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

Really all it does is show that no one's numbers are perfect, and judging anything from them definitively is probably not the best thing to do right now. Maybe if Nielsen added Walmart I'd be a little less skeptical. But to not include the single largest DVD distributor makes your numbers suspect from the start.

While I agree that you shouldn't put too much stock in any one source (particularly Amazon), it sounds a lot like you don't believe the numbers because they don't match what you "know" to be true. My question to you is, if you don't trust things like Nielsen, where do you get your information? How do you know that HD-DVD is holding its own or even "bouncing back" as you have said?

Originally Posted by aristotles 

To echo what cSurfr said, I have bought all my 22 bluray titles from brick and mortar stores like HMV, A&B Sound and Futureshop.

Not to change the subject, but why don't you buy online? It's a much better deal in most cases.

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by icruise 

Not to change the subject, but why don't you buy online? It's a much better deal in most cases.

I like to read the back of the packaging and the convenience of being able to take it home right away. I also do not like having to ship everything to my work as the couriers deliver when I'm at work and I live alone.

I also sometimes like to ask the opinion of people working at the store about whether a movie is worth getting. Getting another opinion can help me decide which movie to get if I'm considering buying only one title and two different titles catch my eye.

Finally, I like to support retailers in my community whenever possible and believe internet sales can be harmful for the economy where I live.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by icruise 

Beyond that, you also have to remember that the "since inception" numbers include a fairly long stretch before the PS3 came out. So I wouldn't rely too heavily on those. The "year to date" numbers seem to be the most reliable indicators of how things are going. Weekly sales will of course fluctuate depending on what's coming out, although I certainly don't recall HD-DVD ever being so clearly in the majority as Blu-ray is this week.

On the other hand, one shouldn't try to claim that numbers for one cherry picked week represent the general trend, especially when general trend numbers are given.

We've been in the exact opposite situation before, where HD-DVD's weekly numbers are higher than the general trend, and we got mumbling for the Bluray supports on how it meant nothing. Now that this week the camp's places have switched, the Bluray camp is going on about how meaningful it is that Bluray's weekly numbers are higher than the yearly numbers. Kinda hypocritical, isn't it?

[Eug]

I like to read the back of the packaging and the convenience of being able to take it home right away. I also do not like having to ship everything to my work as the couriers deliver when I'm at work and I live alone.

I also sometimes like to ask the opinion of people working at the store about whether a movie is worth getting. Getting another opinion can help me decide which movie to get if I'm considering buying only one title and two different titles catch my eye.

Finally, I like to support retailers in my community whenever possible and believe internet sales can be harmful for the economy where I live.

Oh, you're in Canada. Canada is often even worse for prices: HMV often has crazy high prices. Future Shop isn't as bad, but it's not great either. Dunno about A&B, since they're only in Western Canada.

I will not support local retailers that try to rip me off. Hence I order from Amazon.com.

For example, The Thing HD DVD:

HMV (Toronto): CAD$46 (US$43) + tax.
Amazon.com: US$19.99, + shipping, but usually no tax.

WTF?

I can understand it though if you don't like shipping to work. It's actually more convenient for me, since I just get it delivered to the receptionist and it doesn't matter if I'm physically in the office that very moment.

The other thing is half the time the local store doesn't even have the specific disc I want right away, so I actually get it faster by ordering it from Amazon.com.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by aristotles 

I don't see the logic in your statement. Although I buy electronic distributed songs (iTMS) and software through the internet and my MBP from apple.ca, I buy all of my other hardware and titles from brick and mortar stores in the city I live in.

You assume that all early adopters are necessarily going to buy everything online. People that buy movies online from Amazon are a small niché of the market niché that buy any product from Amazon.

Not that they'll all buy online, but that they're all the same demographic and that such a large discrepancy shouldn't be seen by a very small sample. If Premonition were #1 at B&M stores, it stands to reason that it's because it's a very popular movie and should be at least somewhat popular at other stores as well.

On top of that, it was one of the WORST reviewed movies of the year. I highly doubt people are buying it by the droves.

Originally Posted by icruise 

While I agree that you shouldn't put too much stock in any one source (particularly Amazon), it sounds a lot like you don't believe the numbers because they don't match what you "know" to be true. My question to you is, if you don't trust things like Nielsen, where do you get your information? How do you know that HD-DVD is holding its own or even "bouncing back" as you have said?

It's not what I "know" to be true, it's that the numbers shouldn't be *drastically* different. Every other week the numbers have been at least similar to amazon, but all of a sudden the best selling BD disc is simply not bought online? Doesn't add up.

As to where I get my information, it's from interpreting these numbers. No studios are releasing hard numbers, so all we can really do is guess based off of incomplete data. No one has any data on how the largest DVD distributor is selling. That's a huge slice of pie that is missing. On top of that, no online sales are tracked - so you have to check out the sales of those sources as well.


Edit - For example, let's say next week Amazon lists 300 as outselling the BluRay version 10:1, but Nielsen shows that the BD outsold the HD by 3:2. Wouldn't you think the Amazon sales were a bit fishy?

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