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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning?

View Poll Results: Which do you have? (Choose only ONE. Includes stand-alones and game consoles.)
Poll Options:
HD DVD 34 votes (17.09%)
Blu-ray 87 votes (43.72%)
Both 14 votes (7.04%)
Neither 70 votes (35.18%)
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 199. You may not vote on this poll
Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning? (Page 68)
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*TL
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Sep 25, 2007, 04:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
And right now no one is releasing any hard data for sales. Sucks.
Some hard numbers here.

Go to pages HD16 & HD17 for the top 20 for each format.
     
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Sep 25, 2007, 07:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Some hard numbers here.

Go to pages HD16 & HD17 for the top 20 for each format.
Too bad it's only one week. Wonder why they can't do that every week?

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Sep 25, 2007, 11:39 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Too bad it's only one week. Wonder why they can't do that every week?
They do, and it's publicly available every week.


Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Translation: if you quote the Digital Bits, HD partisans won't listen because of a reflexive animosity to the guy who, well, calls up the people at studios and asks them what's going on instead of speculating on internet boards, because he prefers the rival format.
I guess he must have called up Sony's marketing division then when he posted that Microsoft gave Paramount $150 million.

The guy's full of it, and full of himself too, and everyone knows it.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 25, 2007 at 11:45 PM. )
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 04:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
They do, and it's publicly available every week.
Actually they don't. They just release percentages for most weeks. Check out this weeks for example (pages 10-11): NXTbook flash detection page

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Sep 26, 2007, 05:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Some hard numbers here.

Go to pages HD16 & HD17 for the top 20 for each format.
BING! More people have been buying HD-DVD stand alone players that I have known than people buying BLueray stand alones.

The thing is a lot of people count the gaming systems as "sales" and that isn't really a decent way of doing such a thing. Most gamers I know just care about games. They could care less what movies it plays.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 05:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
Really? Weird. What do the rules say considering you introduced me to that site?
What does him introducing you to the site have anything to do with him saying the site isn't credible?

I've introduced Bekah to Wikipedia, but that doesn't mean I think it's full of truthes. The rest of what he said was dead on as well. Stop posting articles as if they were your own thoughts of beliefs.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 05:57 AM
 
Also at one time Bill Hunt's site was a great place to get industry news. Now it's a good place to get Sony PR news.

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Sep 26, 2007, 07:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Also at one time Bill Hunt's site was a great place to get industry news. Now it's a good place to get Sony PR news.
Just curious, but is it possible in your estimation for a site to come out in favor of Blu-ray without it being nothing more than a Sony shill?
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:01 AM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
Just curious, but is it possible in your estimation for a site to come out in favor of Blu-ray without it being nothing more than a Sony shill?
I am sure it's very possible. It's just not the case in this instance.

Most people actually don't know what HD-DVD or Blueray is actually. Those that do USUALLY have a bias either way because of products they own.

I don't own any of said products, and just know about said formats at what I have been reading forever in this thread (again long time reader..) and from what I've heard around the office and from friends.

Everyone seems to agree what is cheaper, and has more options as far as who makes it, licensing fees etc is what format will be the "winner" Most people I know don't care WHICH one "wins" they just want a choice to be made. And until that choice is made, what is cheaper will usually top what is more expensive. Regardless of quality or features.

It's the reason why more people have Windows equipped PCs instead of MacOS one.

The Mac OS is certainly a better OS, but since it's was EASIER to find and CHEAPER to own a Windows based PC, people went to that. And therefore it became the "standard"

But like others have said, both may go to the wayside if they don't come to an agreement soon. Something will come out better and make them both irrelevant.

It's happened before.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:03 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
Really? Weird. What do the rules say considering you introduced me to that site?
I introduced that site to you... something like 8 years ago, when it was actually somewhat decent. However, 2000 is not 2007.


Originally Posted by icruise View Post
Just curious, but is it possible in your estimation for a site to come out in favor of Blu-ray without it being nothing more than a Sony shill?
It's quite possible to favour Blu-ray without being a Blu-ray shill. Nonetheless, he is a Blu-ray shill.

BTW, I particularly like the pix of his Blu-ray sponsored TDB birthday party complete with two paid babes.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
I introduced that site to you... something like 8 years ago, when it was actually somewhat decent.
Seems you aren't the only person that thought it was at one time too..

Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Also at one time Bill Hunt's site was a great place to get industry news. Now it's a good place to get Sony PR news.
Just like MacOSRumors used to be decent at one time..now it's a joke.
It's quite possible to favour Blu-ray without being a Blu-ray shill. Nonetheless, he is a Blu-ray shill. BTW, I particularly like the pix of his Blu-ray sponsored TDB birthday party complete with two paid babes.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:18 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Actually they don't. They just release percentages for most weeks. Check out this weeks for example (pages 10-11): NXTbook flash detection page
Oh, I see what you mean. I stand corrected.

P.S. It has been said by some in the industry that if you sell less than 50000 units for a big title, you're probably losing money. Or, at best, you're not making much money. (It's an overgeneralization I know, but nonetheless it's useful insight into this war.)

The vast majority of the top 20 on the list have sold less than 50000 units this year (although I'm not sure if the 50000 applies to box sets and dual-format releases), and some of the titles were released last year.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:27 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
I guess he must have called up Sony's marketing division then when he posted that Microsoft gave Paramount $150 million.
Nope, he just reported what was reported in the LA Times and later in the NYT (about a third of the way down):
None of the participants in this deal are willing to openly disclose just how MUCH money was exchanged, but the L.A. Weekly is reporting (based in part on a confidential report from media analysis firm Pali Research) that it was in the neighborhood of $50 million in "promotional considerations" for Paramount and $100 million for DreamWorks.
He also later speculated that MS was the source of the cash, but corrected that when the facts came out (not digging out the links).

Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
BING! More people have been buying HD-DVD stand alone players that I have known than people buying BLueray stand alones.
Except that BD stand alone players (excluding PS3s) started outselling HD DVD players about 14 weeks ago, so you can cross that talking point off your list.

Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
Everyone seems to agree what is cheaper, and has more options as far as who makes it, licensing fees etc is what format will be the "winner"
Well, as to cheaper, more options, and licensing fees, its: HD DVD (for now), Blu-ray (for now), HD DVD by a marginal amount (for now). But I don't think that everyone agrees that these factors will decide the winner of the format war. I certainly don't.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 08:38 AM
 
Except that BD stand alone players (excluding PS3s) started outselling HD DVD players about 14 weeks ago, so you can cross that talking point off your list.
What are the margins again? 1.5 - 1? I am sure it's just a spike. It went back and forth in the Beta/VHS world too. One day Beta was the hot thing to get, and the next VHS was.

Well we will soon find out. My bet? Neither of them will become a standard. They will both fall to the wayside of something even better/cheaper. And it will be their own faults.

Again, I will just keep my DVD player I have for the time being. Nothing I am missing out on, and I am not about to waste my money on something that could very well be obsolete in less than a year.

I just remember my dad and his friends having the SAME arguments when VHS/Beta standard was in full swing. And the two sound JUST alike.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 09:10 AM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Nope, he just reported what was reported in the LA Times and later in the NYT (about a third of the way down):

He also later speculated that MS was the source of the cash, but corrected that when the facts came out (not digging out the links).
Exactly. He made up the MS part, and reported it as fact. That's indicative of the overall problem.

What's amusing though is he goes on to say it's bad for MS to do it (even though they didn't), but it's OK for Sony to do so. Talk about a hypocrite.

For the record, I think it's OK for BOTH sides to do so. But the bottom line is that MS never made any such payment, and the original article never claimed it did.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 09:26 AM
 
He didn't "make it up", he linked another source.

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Sep 26, 2007, 09:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Exactly. He made up the MS part, and reported it as fact. That's indicative of the overall problem.
That's probably a fair criticism; IIRC, he went a little too far out on the limb with his speculation.

That being said, the foundation for his conspiracy theories were comments that Microsoft reps had made to him (again, when he met with them personally). And he corrected his comments when it became clear that no direct payoff from MS had occurred.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 09:41 AM
 
Originally Posted by Kevin View Post
What are the margins again? 1.5 - 1? I am sure it's just a spike. It went back and forth in the Beta/VHS world too. One day Beta was the hot thing to get, and the next VHS was.
Nobody's reported numbers, only market share percentages. And the numbers don't matter; the only thing that HD DVD had going for it was it could say "we've sold more standalones." If they can't do that anymore, they're on shakey ground.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 09:59 AM
 
Question - is there anything out there that shows BD players overtaking HD DVD players BESIDES the slide that Sony had? I only ask because some of the numbers on their slide just didn't add up and I'd like to see someone corroborate the overall data.

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Sep 26, 2007, 10:28 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
He didn't "make it up", he linked another source.
The original source is the LA Times article, and it made absolutely no claim of a payoff by MS.

However, a lot of Blu-ray geeks claimed it must have been MS, and without any fact checking, TDB just went with that.


Originally Posted by *TL View Post
That being said, the foundation for his conspiracy theories were comments that Microsoft reps had made to him (again, when he met with them personally). And he corrected his comments when it became clear that no direct payoff from MS had occurred.
Huh? MS reps suggested to him that MS paid off Paramount and Dreamworks, even though MS didn't pay off Paramount and Dreamworks?


Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Question - is there anything out there that shows BD players overtaking HD DVD players BESIDES the slide that Sony had? I only ask because some of the numbers on their slide just didn't add up and I'd like to see someone corroborate the overall data.
Well, FWIW, Toshiba did not dispute the claim that Blu-ray standalone sales for that listed short period exceeded HD DVD's. (I can't remember exactly, but I think it had been a 9 week period or something like that when they made the claim.) What Toshiba said was that overall standalone HD DVD player sales were higher than standalone Blu-ray player sales for the year.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 26, 2007 at 10:35 AM. )
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 10:28 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Question - is there anything out there that shows BD players overtaking HD DVD players BESIDES the slide that Sony had? I only ask because some of the numbers on their slide just didn't add up and I'd like to see someone corroborate the overall data.
NPD provided the numbers; AFAIK, there is no reason for them to be suspect. I also believe that their data is proprietary, and that's why Sony only presented it in summary form.

What didn't add up?
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 10:41 AM
 
Yes, NPD numbers are the best we have. They don't include numbers from places from Wal-Mart, but they're apparently quite representative. Furthermore, like I said, Toshiba didn't dispute them.
     
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Sep 26, 2007, 02:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
NPD provided the numbers; AFAIK, there is no reason for them to be suspect. I also believe that their data is proprietary, and that's why Sony only presented it in summary form.

What didn't add up?
They had a chart showing player market share, and they also had numbers for the market share, but if you correlated the data it just didn't work out right (especially back in late 2006 and early 2007). I'll have to search for it.

I don't think the NPD data is wrong, I think Sony's slides were manipulated a bit...

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Sep 27, 2007, 04:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Nobody's reported numbers, only market share percentages. And the numbers don't matter; the only thing that HD DVD had going for it was it could say "we've sold more standalones." If they can't do that anymore, they're on shakey ground.
I've heard Betamax users say the same things in the 80s. Again, we will see

I doubt this even goes that far. Neither is gonna make it IMHO.
     
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Sep 27, 2007, 01:57 PM
 
So, Warner says that starting in 2008, it will stop releasing combo HD DVD/DVD discs for new releases.

I wonder if Universal will do the same.
     
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Sep 30, 2007, 09:13 AM
 
Circuit City and BB have the A2 for $249. On top of that CC is also giving a $100 gift card with any Toshiba HD DVD purchase. BB offers two free HD DVDs at time of purchase in addition to the 5 free by mail.
( Last edited by Chongo; Sep 30, 2007 at 07:44 PM. )
     
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Sep 30, 2007, 01:48 PM
 
The A2 helped sales in August. September has been a disastrous month for HD-DVD on all fronts.
     
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Sep 30, 2007, 01:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
So, Warner says that starting in 2008, it will stop releasing combo HD DVD/DVD discs for new releases.
Because of lack of interest from the average consumer I am sure.
     
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Sep 30, 2007, 05:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by PaperNotes View Post
The A2 helped sales in August. September has been a disastrous month for HD-DVD on all fronts.
Care to explain that at all? Or are you just making it up?

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Oct 1, 2007, 02:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Care to explain that at all? Or are you just making it up?
I don't make stuff up like you do.

Take our beloved Amazon sales for example. Everyone loved posting them a month ago. This month complete silence because HD-DVD sales plunged. Out of the whole of September HD-DVD dominated the salesrank top 10 for one single day and never dominated the salesrank top 25. Blu-ray also beat HD-DVD on price all month long except for two days.

Amazon is just one online reseller. It's worse for HD-DVD in retail stores (as always) and this coming week should have updated figures in the news. Sony's new campaign to remind PS3 owners that they have a Blu-ray drive that plays movie is working.

In summary, the A2 has failed to dent Blu-ray movie sales in September like it did in August. And I did not make that up.
( Last edited by PaperNotes; Oct 1, 2007 at 02:13 AM. )
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 02:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by PaperNotes View Post
I don't make stuff up like you do.
Are you Eug now?
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Oct 1, 2007, 05:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by PaperNotes View Post
I don't make stuff up like you do.

Take our beloved Amazon sales for example. Everyone loved posting them a month ago. This month complete silence because HD-DVD sales plunged. Out of the whole of September HD-DVD dominated the salesrank top 10 for one single day and never dominated the salesrank top 25. Blu-ray also beat HD-DVD on price all month long except for two days.

Amazon is just one online reseller. It's worse for HD-DVD in retail stores (as always) and this coming week should have updated figures in the news. Sony's new campaign to remind PS3 owners that they have a Blu-ray drive that plays movie is working.

In summary, the A2 has failed to dent Blu-ray movie sales in September like it did in August. And I did not make that up.
Funny how when Amazon favors HD all the BD fanboys talk about how the numbers don't count...

NPD data has been on the rise for HD DVD for the entire month. I'm not sure how you can call that a failure for HD DVD, but whatever...

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Oct 1, 2007, 05:42 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
NPD data has been on the rise for HD DVD for the entire month.
Which pretty much correlates with the numbers of people I have spoken with that went HD-DVD over blueray.
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 10:03 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
NPD data has been on the rise for HD DVD for the entire month. I'm not sure how you can call that a failure for HD DVD, but whatever...
Is there a source for this?
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 10:17 AM
 
Yeah - NPD. HD DVD has been hitting 1.5:1 or so consistently for September, which is a rise from the usual 2:1 over the past few months.

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Oct 1, 2007, 10:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Yeah - NPD. HD DVD has been hitting 1.5:1 or so consistently for September, which is a rise from the usual 2:1 over the past few months.
Gotcha. I thought you were talking about player sales. But I think it's Nielsen that tracks software.

Sales results for this week (Oct. 2) and the following week will be interesting to compare to the week Heroes/Blades were released; BD has a lot of exclusives going up against next to nothing.
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 11:07 AM
 
Samsung BDP-2400 Blu-ray player cancelled

Although they were among the most eagerly anticipated of the season, it seems two of Samsung's previously-announced next-gen players will not hit store shelves later this month as originally planned.

WesleyTech.com first broke the news late Friday that Samsung had cancelled its higher-end BDP-2400 Blu-ray Player. Later, it was revealed that the manufactuer would also delay the launch of its dual-format HD DVD/Blu-ray player, the BD-UP5000.

Both players had originally been expected to hit store shelves before November 1st.

As announced by Samsung back in July, the BDP-2400 was set to be a slightly higher-end cousin to the just-released BDP-1400, including all of the later player's features, plus Samsung's proprietary de-interlacing technology.

The dual format BD-UP5000 player is now expected to hit store shelves sometime in December.



Originally Posted by Chuckit View Post
Are you Eug now?
Eh?
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 11:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
Gotcha. I thought you were talking about player sales. But I think it's Nielsen that tracks software.

Sales results for this week (Oct. 2) and the following week will be interesting to compare to the week Heroes/Blades were released; BD has a lot of exclusives going up against next to nothing.
Sorry, you're right - I meant Nielsen.

And I dunno about the exclusives - HD DVD has Top Gun this week.

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Oct 1, 2007, 03:34 PM
 
Eug so they are getting pushed back again..

I smell two formats that will soon be obsolete.
     
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Oct 1, 2007, 09:00 PM
 
I picked up a close-out Toshiba HD-A20 HD DVD player for CAD$349 today from Future Shop. Not totally awesome by US pricing standards, but a heluvalot better than the $599 Best Buy Canada is charging. WTF is Best Buy thinking? The weird part is Best Buy owns Future Shop.

I also saw the Canadian pricing for the A30 and A3. They're CAD$449 and CAD$349 respectively, which is about 15% higher than the US.

P.S. Target now listes the Venturer HD DVD player at $249. Meh. I was expecting a $199 list price, with sales down to $179 or less. It now looks like it's gonna be $249 list, with sales to $199.
     
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Oct 2, 2007, 01:57 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
P.S. Target now listes the Venturer HD DVD player at $249. Meh. I was expecting a $199 list price, with sales down to $179 or less. It now looks like it's gonna be $249 list, with sales to $199.
But Target is Bluray exclusive!!!!!1111
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Oct 2, 2007, 03:01 AM
 
Try and pick one up in-store.
     
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Oct 2, 2007, 07:41 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
I picked up a close-out Toshiba HD-A20 HD DVD player for CAD$349 today from Future Shop. Not totally awesome by US pricing standards, but a heluvalot better than the $599 Best Buy Canada is charging. WTF is Best Buy thinking? The weird part is Best Buy owns Future Shop.

I also saw the Canadian pricing for the A30 and A3. They're CAD$449 and CAD$349 respectively, which is about 15% higher than the US.
OK, another poster has confirmed the Canadian pricing:

A3: $349
A30: $449
A35: $549
XA2: $799

However, she also says that the machines will include 2 HD DVDs in the box (300 and Bourne Identity) and a mail-in deal for 5 free movies. I haven't seen verification of this part, but she says the machines won't be available for a couple of weeks yet in Canada, so I guess it makes sense we won't see the Canadian free movie deal advertised just yet.

I got the A20 for $349, but I think I'll keep that. I'd rather have a player for $100 cheaper than those free movies.
     
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Oct 2, 2007, 08:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
However, she also says that the machines will include 2 HD DVDs in the box (300 and Bourne Identity) and a mail-in deal for 5 free movies. I haven't seen verification of this part,
That's the deal in the States.

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Oct 2, 2007, 09:59 AM
 
Toshiba standalone HD DVD recorder - Vardia RD-RX7



The company behind the HD DVD format is apparently working on a new flagship Vardia DVD / HD DVD recorder (with hard drive) tentatively dubbed the RD-RX7, which is also capable of recording HD video to, wait for it, non-HD DVD DVDs (aka regular DVDs, like the kind your mom finally just got last month). Apparently Toshiba can even fit about 2 hours of HD video onto old school DVD media with "HD Rec technology", which ain't too bad compared to the 6 hours of HD video it gets on an HD DVD. It actually kind of leaves us wondering why the hell they're insisting we upgrade to HD DVD, dunnit? Oh, and the thing also supports HDMI out with 1080p/24, not unlike the other HD DVD recorder being shown off today (about which we've little info), the RD-A201. Enjoy.



Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
That's the deal in the States.
Yes I know. However, she says it's going to be the same in Canada, in a few weeks. I haven't yet seen verification of that yet for Canada, which maybe isn't surprising because the 3rd gens are not yet available here.
     
*TL
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Oct 2, 2007, 11:18 AM
 
That's a nice looking piece of gear. Unlike the Venture player, which bears a striking resemblance to the Fisher VHS deck my family got ca. 1985.
     
Eug
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Oct 2, 2007, 11:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by *TL View Post
That's a nice looking piece of gear. Unlike the Venture player, which bears a striking resemblance to the Fisher VHS deck my family got ca. 1985.
IMO the ugliest hi-def player overall is the Toshiba HD-A1 HD DVD player. It looks like a 1970s VCR.

     
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Oct 2, 2007, 05:25 PM
 
Yes it does! I know cause Dad had one.

I remember when he got his first Cam corder too. You had to bring a huge recorder and carry it around WITH you along with the camera.

There was nothing portable about it. I can still remember what those smelled like though.... it had a special smell to it.. odd.
     
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Oct 3, 2007, 07:59 PM
 
Looks like everything is going smoothly with Fox's new BD+ discs:
Fox's new Blu-ray titles with BD+ won't playing in all players - Engadget HD

Oh wait...

All glory to the hypnotoad.
     
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Oct 3, 2007, 08:08 PM
 
This is a prime example of why it's a bad idea to build a format while it's already on the market. It's like building a car while you're driving it. Again, HD-DVD's decision to wait to release until they finished the format is looking like the smart choice.
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