[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

Isn't it just as telling that even though the PS3 has sold millions of consoles they have yet to pull away from HD DVD??? It's essentially the same argument...

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by jokell82

Guys - the mail in offers for free discs DO NOT count towards the sales numbers.

We know this.

Originally Posted by jokell82 

Isn't it just as telling that even though the PS3 has sold millions of consoles they have yet to pull away from HD DVD??? It's essentially the same argument...

I wouldn't even go as far as to assume every one or even a majority of those millions of PS3 are being used as a Blu-ray player. But you can't deny a sizeable number of people do buy the PS3 to use solely as a Blu-ray player, and even more buy it as a game console can play high def movies.

Originally Posted by ort888 

Do you really think that they aren't getting a cut for these "free" movies? As if Toshiba is just pressing their own copies and throwing them in the box?

Of course I don't think that. The money's got to come from somewhere, and it's likely out of Toshiba's pockets. But the situation you have is that the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps both have movies that come free in the box and both have 5-10 disc free mail-in offers, and after all these free movies are given to the consumer Blu-ray sales still top HD DVD sales. For all the talk of standalone owners are more likely to buy movies, a whole lot of someones out there aren't buying movies.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Are you kidding? For all of 2007 every month had some sort of "Buy a HD-DVD player get 10 free movies". HD-DVD also had more Bogo sales.

Free movies don't count toward HDDVD sales numbers. If it did, the sales numbers would be:

10 movies x 500,000 players sold = 5 million HDDVD movies

How many Bluray movies sold in 2007? I think it's around 3 million.

I've only been following HDDVD and Bluray since Nov. 2007. I've seen only about 3 BOGO sales for HDDVD. Amazon has the best one so fare with under 40 titles. Bestbuy had a BOGO sales for like 10 movies. This week at Bestbuy it's buy 3 get 2 free. Not the greatest.

[ort888]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

Well, even with it's disappointing sales, the PS3 sells at least 100,000 a month.

So 100,000 HD DVD players is just going to offset 1 month of PS3 sales.

At any rate... I have one of those $99 HD DVD players, and I just can't motivate myself to buy a bunch of titles.

For one thing, the HD selection is still pretty crappy, and all the movies are too damn expensive anyway.

Also, there is a little voice in the back of my head is telling me that there is a good chance that HD DVD might lose, and I'll get stuck with a bunch of movies in an obsolete format.

That said I still own 5 movies now. (Transformers, Children of Men, Planet Earth, Serenity and Bladerunner)

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Sez who?

There were strong rumors that Pixar was involved with iHD and HD-DVD, which would make sense given how much they like interactive content. Google's not being very helpful in this matter though, it's mostly returning really old results from when Steve said that something like managed copy would be needed on HD-DVD to prevent movie piracy.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I gotta get me some of your grass!

Here's a topic on the Hi Def Digest forums on point to Warner sales ratios: Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD: Warner's 300, The Departed, Planet Earth - High-Def Digest Forums

As for The Departed and 300 first week sales, the win went overwhelmingly to Blu-ray -- and this is before Toshiba decided to include 300 free in the box. On that note, I'm sure Warner is loving the fact that Toshiba is giving away their titles for free! Sure, give away titles for free so that the consumer doesn't have to go out to buy these titles. Good for the consumer, no doubt; not so good for the studios. And note, HD DVD began their buy a HD DVD player, get 5 movies free deals before the Blu-ray camp jumped in to compete. And lastly, HD DVD has their own BOGO and B2G1 free specials from time to time too, and even then fail to win a week against Blu-ray sales.

You are wrong about when 300 was included free in the box. Those sales numbers are for the week ending in Nov. 11. 300 was already included with the HD-A3 before Nov. 11. The HD-A3 was on sale sometime in Oct.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

If Warner does go HD exclusive I am swearing off this whole round of HD disks.
Since the PS3 will always have BR in it there will always be BR movies for sale making the war NEVER end.

I swear if they dare do something as stupid as HD only when BR has been outselling HD for 12 months it will look like nothing more than another payout and consumers will be fed up with all this **** and both formats will slowly die till the next thing comes around.

Warner does not do any development of Bluray discs in house, while they already have a workflow set up for HD-DVD. Financially, going Bluray makes little to no sense for them. They'd have to set up new production lines, new workflow, and spend major bucks on going Bluray. On the other hand, they are in a position where they can make the format war go any way they want. If they go HD-DVD, Bluray sales won't really matter because they'll shift the entire format war in HD-DVD's favor, and HD-DVD sales will rise.

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Warner does not do any development of Bluray discs in house, while they already have a workflow set up for HD-DVD. Financially, going Bluray makes little to no sense for them. They'd have to set up new production lines, new workflow, and spend major bucks on going Bluray. On the other hand, they are in a position where they can make the format war go any way they want. If they go HD-DVD, Bluray sales won't really matter because they'll shift the entire format war in HD-DVD's favor, and HD-DVD sales will rise.

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

Oh dear lord

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

You are wrong about when 300 was included free in the box. Those sales numbers are for the week ending in Nov. 11. 300 was already included with the HD-A3 before Nov. 11. The HD-A3 was on sale sometime in Oct.

300 was not included as a Toshiba in-box upon its release on Aug. 1, 2007, or for a while after that. And first week sales were overwhelmingly Blu by a matter of 2:1.

See:
'300' Breaks Blu-ray, HD DVD Sales Records | High-Def Digest

A week after its initial release, '300' has eclipsed all previous releases to become the fastest and highest selling high-def disc yet. . . . According to Warner Home Video, more than 250,000 copies of the CGI epic have been sold to consumers on Blu-ray and HD DVD.

and then:

'300' Blu-ray Outsells HD DVD by 2 to 1 | High-Def Digest

[T]he 65:35 ratio roughly matches the overall market share for both formats, HD DVD supporters had hoped that a series of supplemental features exclusive to the HD DVD edition of '300' might help the format pull out from under its next-gen rival.

Guess it didn't so much so that Toshiba had to throw it in their boxes for free.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

300 was not included as a Toshiba in-box upon its release on Aug. 1, 2007, or for a while after that. And first week sales were overwhelmingly Blu by a matter of 2:1.

See:
'300' Breaks Blu-ray, HD DVD Sales Records | High-Def Digest



and then:

'300' Blu-ray Outsells HD DVD by 2 to 1 | High-Def Digest

[T]he 65:35 ratio roughly matches the overall market share for both formats, HD DVD supporters had hoped that a series of supplemental features exclusive to the HD DVD edition of '300' might help the format pull out from under its next-gen rival.[/i]

Guess it didn't so much so that Toshiba had to throw it in their boxes for free.

Again, I haven't been following the market until Nov. 2007. You've provided me with the link to Nov. 11 numbers, so my response was based on that.

Besides, the number of HDDVD players has doubled since Aug. 2007.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by goMac 

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

If Warner were to go HD DVD, they'd cut themselves off from over half their high def paying customers. I still think from a financial standpoint, Warner will remain neutral (as it commands something like 30% of the HD market by catering to both HD DVD and Blu-ray) or go Blu (which arguably produces more Warner sales week after week).

If Warner were to go HD DVD, from a long-term view, it would only produce a continued stalemate and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple just to get the titles they want, and/or (3) jaded and confused consumers who will never drop down upwards of $500 for two different formats. You'll have Blu-exclusives with Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate and HD DVD-exclusives with Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal, and hypothetically Warner. Unless CE companies begin producing affordable dual-format players, HDM will never get off the ground (especially true if the popular notion that consumers are waiting for a winner to emerge is correct).

That all said, it is about money, and I've read in recent months that both camps have been trying to sway Warner to go exclusive. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony or Toshiba offered an incentive payment to Warner for exclusivity.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Besides, the number of HDDVD players has doubled since Aug. 2007.

Ok even better. So if the player sales are so high why the low attachment rate? Movie selection perhaps?

Warner might want to think about that before they go for the "selling you razors" method.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

The last numbers I saw a month ago showed it costs $0.50 more to make a BR. That is peanuts considering HD doesn't hold as much and might come with a second disk anyway.

Not to mention studio's often make it a multi-disk set just to sell more and they don't think twice about dropping $1.00 or more for that with increased packaging and disk costs so I think they will survive paying fifty cents more for a BR disk.

If that is the last leg HD supporters are standing on it is pathetic.

[ort888]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ok even better. So if the player sales are so high why the low attachment rate? Movie selection perhaps?

Warner might want to think about that before they go for the "selling you razors" method.

I think it's simply that the PS3 and standalone Blu-ray players are selling enough to offset any gains that HD DVD can make.

HD DVD players have doubled... and Blu-ray players probably have too.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony or Toshiba offered an incentive payment to Warner for exclusivity.

Are you kidding. Both sides have been knocking down their doors for a while with cash in hand. Lets hope they just don't pull a Paramount those whores.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

I'm not talking about disc prices. I'm talking about a mastering workflow.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

If Warner were to go HD DVD, they'd cut themselves off from over half their high def paying customers. I still think from a financial standpoint, Warner will remain neutral (as it commands something like 30% of the HD market by catering to both HD DVD and Blu-ray) or go Blu (which arguably produces more Warner sales week after week).

I'm not sure you understand. Warner is in a position to decide the war. If they go HD-DVD, people will buy HD-DVD, and Warner will have an audience to sell to. If they go Bluray, people will buy Bluray, and they will have an audience to sell to. I think the sales figures are important only so far as making sure HD-DVD is a plausible opponent to Bluray.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

If Warner were to go HD DVD, from a long-term view, it would only produce a continued stalemate and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple just to get the titles they want, and/or (3) jaded and confused consumers who will never drop down upwards of $500 for two different formats. You'll have Blu-exclusives with Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate and HD DVD-exclusives with Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal, and hypothetically Warner. Unless CE companies begin producing affordable dual-format players, HDM will never get off the ground (especially true if the popular notion that consumers are waiting for a winner to emerge is correct).

It certainly wouldn't make for a quick resolution either way they go, but it would certainly have a certain effect on the Bluray camp. Disney would be pretty quick to go neutral, further weakening the Bluray camp.