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Sep 8, 2008, 12:29 PM
 
At $155+ now, down over 4 bux. It seems AAPL isn't following the greater market higher.

I guess people aren't really optimistic about tomorrow's event.
     
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Sep 9, 2008, 03:08 PM
 
AAPL now down 5+ bux to $152.70. People apparently weren't to happy with the show.
     
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Sep 9, 2008, 03:12 PM
 
Doesn't their stock usually go down after a presentation?
     
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Sep 9, 2008, 03:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by xi_hyperon View Post
Doesn't their stock usually go down after a presentation?
Well, this time it went down before the presentation, and then it went down again after the presentation.
     
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Sep 9, 2008, 04:01 PM
 
It's all my fault the stock went down so far. I'm thinking of selling, but haven't yet.

If I pulled the trigger two weeks ago, it would be up to $250 right now....
     
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Sep 12, 2008, 11:28 AM
 
$148 and change now.

Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
It's all my fault the stock went down so far. I'm thinking of selling, but haven't yet.

If I pulled the trigger two weeks ago, it would be up to $250 right now....
Please hold onto it until it drops another $30. Then I will buy back in.
     
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Sep 15, 2008, 08:15 PM
 
Closed down almost 6% to $140.38, and then now after hours, it has drifted below $140.

Hmmm... When will it hit bottom?
     
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Sep 15, 2008, 08:52 PM
 
Actually, I sold at $153 last week.
     
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Sep 16, 2008, 08:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
Actually, I sold at $153 last week.
Should have sold, too. I'm so tired of that Amaracan stock market - financial market panic bullsh1t...

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Sep 16, 2008, 08:28 AM
 
I have some cash sitting in my brokerage acct, but I'm too scared to buy right now. Everyone's negative in their outlook, and AAPL is still dropping. Now below $139.
     
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Sep 17, 2008, 04:28 AM
 
Bah. I was tempted to buy at < $135 but didn't. Now they're over $142.

However, even at < $140 prices, AAPL makes me nervous. Had there not been an AIG bailout, I could see AAPL in the 120s today (which is when I would have bought) or lower. Yes, I actually thought the feds might just allow an AIG bankruptcy.
     
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Sep 17, 2008, 08:17 AM
 
The AIG bailout and the Lehman issues had trounced the entire market. There is currently little other reason for the AAPL "adjustment" (except for the overall crappy economy).

Of course, that's because I still hold shares and I want them to go back up. I could have sold at $180, $170, $160, $165, etc., but it fell so fast, now I have to wait and hope it will rise again.

When is the next quarterly results conference call? It usually rises just as they approach and dips just after.

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Sep 17, 2008, 11:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post
The AIG bailout and the Lehman issues had trounced the entire market. There is currently little other reason for the AAPL "adjustment" (except for the overall crappy economy).
That is a pretty good reason. Not just general sentiment, but also potential for lower consumer spending.

Of course, that's because I still hold shares and I want them to go back up. I could have sold at $180, $170, $160, $165, etc., but it fell so fast, now I have to wait and hope it will rise again.
I hear ya. I bought at $150+ and then watched it drop to $117, so I just bided my time (very nervously) until it hit $150+ and $160+ before I sold again. The stupid part is that I actually lost a little bit of money even though my average sell price was higher than my buy price, because of the exchange rate and foreign exchange commissions. (During that period the US$ went further into the toilet.)

When is the next quarterly results conference call? It usually rises just as they approach and dips just after.
Perhaps, but not necessarily. I've seen it rise after the CC.

The next conference call is likely mid to late October.

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Sep 17, 2008, 12:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Bah. I was tempted to buy at < $135 but didn't. Now they're over $142.

However, even at < $140 prices, AAPL makes me nervous. Had there not been an AIG bailout, I could see AAPL in the 120s today (which is when I would have bought) or lower. Yes, I actually thought the feds might just allow an AIG bankruptcy.
I'm back in. Bought at under $132.

It seemed that $130+ was a barrier, so I decided to buy in at $131.87. I figure I won't lose much even if it does drop into the 120s, esp. if there are more big financial disasters announced, but there is a significant upside potential too if the greater markets stabilize.
     
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Sep 17, 2008, 02:49 PM
 
It just broke the $130 barrier. Now $129 and change.
     
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Sep 17, 2008, 04:23 PM
 
Back up to 132 now, though. It'll bounce back after this mess is over with.

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Sep 17, 2008, 05:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Back up to 132 now, though. It'll bounce back after this mess is over with.
Closed down $12.05 at $127.83. It was $139.88 yesterday, so that's a drop of almost 9%.

I should have just had that buy order of $129 again I had yesterday. Didn't work yesterday so I figured $131.87 was close enough (esp. since that was already an $8 drop). Well, whatever. As long as I it doesn't drop below $120 I'll be OK with that.

Catch a falling knife, as they say...

     
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Sep 17, 2008, 05:42 PM
 
And once again stupid ******* Amaraca rocks the financial world as we know it. Hey, I have a genius plan: Why don't we all just all sell all our shares?! That will teach "them up there".

Amaraca: How many badly financed, ill guided, rotten to the core companies do you have that need to be socialized? Just tell me now, so I can get out of my stocks totally as long as this sh1tstorm tries to reach Old Europe. :-/

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Sep 17, 2008, 05:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by Powerbook View Post
And once again stupid ******* Amaraca rocks the financial world as we know it. Hey, I have a genius plan: Why don't we all just all sell all our shares?! That will teach "them up there".

Amaraca: How many badly financed, ill guided, rotten to the core companies do you have that need to be socialized? Just tell me now, so I can get out of my stocks totally as long as this sh1tstorm tries to reach Old Europe. :-/

PB.
Sell your stock and buy radishes, you don't have the nerve for it.


I'm set to buy (again) at $125.
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Sep 17, 2008, 06:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
Sell your stock and buy radishes, you don't have the nerve for it.
That would be giant turnips.
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Sep 18, 2008, 11:09 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
Sell your stock and buy radishes, you don't have the nerve for it.


I'm set to buy (again) at $125.
You recognize, I'm royally PI$$ED at the moment. I wonder what excuses the Lemmings will have to write Apple down for the Christmas quarter.

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Sep 18, 2008, 11:09 AM
 
Originally Posted by Powerbook View Post
You recognize, I'm royally PI$$ED at the moment. I wonder what excuses the Lemmings will have to write Apple down for the Christmas quarter.
Well, AAPL is on a little bit of a mini-rally at least (as is the greater market). Now in the $132+ range. Green is better than red.

P.S. I saw this on the Google Finance discussion forums for AAPL:

The perils of the margin buy.

Have to come up with $70k by noon so I am hoping and praying for a big
run this a.m!! It aint goingt to happen for me so here's to a nice big
loss!!


He bought on margin at $167. Ouch. BTW, that's about when I sold. Maybe he bought my stocks!

EDIT:

Well, that didn't last long. Now into $126 territory. Shaddim may be buying sooner rather than later.

EDIT:

And the $125 mark has been been achieved... and broken right through. Into the $123s. Ouch.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 18, 2008 at 12:00 PM. )
     
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Sep 18, 2008, 12:18 PM
 
Yep, just got an email, I bought 200 shares at $124.75.
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Sep 18, 2008, 12:24 PM
 
I think it was Warren Buffett who said that you shouldn't see it as money lost, you should look at it like a seasonal sale. If you're investing for the long term, dips like this (Apple is not in trouble, so its stock is not going to crash and burn) are just opportunities to get the most bang for your investment buck.
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Sep 18, 2008, 12:24 PM
 
I wonder what drove everything down so quickly. Everyone liquidating AAPL to pay for their enormous margin calls?


Originally Posted by Chuckit View Post
I think it was Warren Buffett who said that you shouldn't see it as money lost, you should look at it like a seasonal sale. If you're investing for the long term, dips like this (Apple is not in trouble, so its stock is not going to crash and burn) are just opportunities to get the most bang for your investment buck.
Well, in my case, I'm not in it for the long term. I hope to sell within three months (or maximum 6 months).

But like I said, I was sort of expecting a drop into the 120s. I would be annoyed if it dropped into the teens though, since it would be that much harder to make it back into the 140s after that in 3 months. I was hoping to sell at $150 or higher, but would be OK with $140+. I need to sell at $135+ just to break even (because of the brokerage and foreign exchange commissions).
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 18, 2008 at 12:34 PM. )
     
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Sep 18, 2008, 12:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
I wonder what is drove everything down so quickly.
As of this morning, everyone's dumping and running to T-bills.

Poopie hits the fan very, very soon.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
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Sep 18, 2008, 12:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
As of this morning, everyone's dumping and running to T-bills.
That's just it. They weren't dumping everything at that time.

When AAPL suddenly went south, the greater market was in positive territory... and still is:

S&P TSX
12,123.43 +245.74 (2.07%)
Dow
10,664.21 +54.55 (0.51%)
Nasdaq
2,099.96 +1.11 (0.05%)
S&P 500
1,162.30 +5.91 (0.51%)

OTOH, AAPL dropped over 6% in less than an hour.

EDIT:

So I just checked. As of just after noon, individual stocks from my own (limited) stock portfolio:

Financial stock: Up 2.0%
Energy stock: Up 7.2%
Manufacturing stock: Up 2.3%
Tech stock (AAPL): Down 3.8%
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 18, 2008 at 01:27 PM. )
     
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Sep 18, 2008, 01:51 PM
 
Pussies, short sellers and Lemmings have just joined to a gigantic circle jerk. If that isn't the disgusting face of capitalism I haven't seen it yet.

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Sep 18, 2008, 04:49 PM
 
Quite the market rally at the end of the day. Now over $135. We'll see if this holds. The lemmings are finally going the right direction.

BTW, it did hit the 120+ range, but never did go below the 120 barrier. Tomorrow's another day though.

EDIT:

Closed at $134.09. Wowsers. The low for the day was 120.68, and the high was $135.38 for a range of $14.70 - 11%.
Volume was WAY up at 55 million. The average volume is less than half that.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 18, 2008 at 05:05 PM. )
     
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Sep 19, 2008, 11:38 AM
 
Back up to 140. I think if it ever hits 200 again in the short term I'll sell and find a more stable stock to stick with. The roller coaster of AAPL doesn't help my blood pressure.

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Sep 19, 2008, 10:50 PM
 
Closed at $140.91, and held at $140.65 by the end of after hours trading. Nice.

As I said, I'm in it for the short term too. However, I'm not confident it will hit 200 soon. It might, but it might also hit just $175 or so before a drop. Thus, I'm likely going to cash out long before it hits 200, perhaps split into two trades, one somewhere above $150 and one above maybe $170. But like I said, I'm only in for the short term. I want to be out before the end of the year, and maybe even out before the Oct. 20 Q4 conference call.

I do think a pullback is likely for Monday or Tuesday, but hopefully not too much. I'm guessing it will settle under $140, but probably over $135. Hopefully I'm dead wrong, and it settles north of $145.

P.S. I am amused... I did a Google search for "AAPL", and my blog showed up as #2 for linked blogs. (The blogs are listed at the bottom of the search page.) I'm very surprised, because my blog post on AAPL has no analysis or anything like that whatsoever. Furthermore, I didn't advertise the blog either (except as a link in my sig here).
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 19, 2008 at 10:57 PM. )
     
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Sep 21, 2008, 03:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Back up to 140. I think if it ever hits 200 again in the short term I'll sell and find a more stable stock to stick with. The roller coaster of AAPL doesn't help my blood pressure.
Absolutely, and it's a totally illogic roller coaster. In Germany AAPL was jumping some +13% on Friday, basically just to "catch up". Can't wait to cash out those options in 2009 (hopefully in the greens!)...

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Sep 21, 2008, 04:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by Powerbook View Post
Absolutely, and it's a totally illogic roller coaster. In Germany AAPL was jumping some +13% on Friday, basically just to "catch up". Can't wait to cash out those options in 2009 (hopefully in the greens!)...

PB.
Yeah I think if their stock price correlated to the current news/performance of the company I'd feel much better about it. But in reality the stock crashes because Steve Jobs looks too skinny? WTF is that? I bought in around $40 or so I've made quite a bit, but it's just frustrating to see the stock fall for bullshit reasons.

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Sep 22, 2008, 05:08 PM
 
And down we go...

AAPL down almost 10 bux today. Exactly -7%.
     
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Sep 23, 2008, 04:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
And down we go...

AAPL down almost 10 bux today. Exactly -7%.
Probably because Steve Jobs' brother-in-law's sister's ex-husband's dog pooped on the sidewalk.

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Sep 24, 2008, 08:21 AM
 
This Apple dip may represent a buying opportunity. Many stocks dumped because of the problems in the financial market. As long as it is not an adjustment, but a feakout dip, it will recover. It could represent a real buying opportunity for those who who wished they bought in long ago.

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Sep 24, 2008, 08:27 AM
 
It probably is a buying-opportunity, but I would counsel waiting to see some stabilization before any major buys. Personally speaking, AAPL got difficult to trade north of $100 (illiquidity), and I would be leery of holding it until we have a better sense of SJ's long term medical outlook.

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Sep 24, 2008, 09:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
I would be leery of holding it until we have a better sense of SJ's long term medical outlook.
Exactly the BS that causes this problem in the first place.

I'll give you Steve's long term medical outlook: he's going to die. Guess what, that's the long term medical outlook for everyone.

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Sep 24, 2008, 09:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Exactly the BS that causes this problem in the first place. I'll give you Steve's long term medical outlook: he's going to die. Guess what, that's the long term medical outlook for everyone.
You're right, but I wouldn't want to be holding any substantial position if he were to go prematurely, heaven forbid. You'd take a 50% haircut pretty quickly, I'd say. I'm hoping SJ will live another 50 years, but I wouldn't want to invest on that hope.

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Sep 24, 2008, 09:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
It probably is a buying-opportunity, but I would counsel waiting to see some stabilization before any major buys. Personally speaking, AAPL got difficult to trade north of $100 (illiquidity)
Why does a stock price of $100 mean illiquidity? As far as I can see, it trades extremely well. There are LOTS of buyers and sellers of the stock, just like there are LOTS of buyers and sellers of GOOG... which happens to go for $429.


Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Exactly the BS that causes this problem in the first place.

I'll give you Steve's long term medical outlook: he's going to die. Guess what, that's the long term medical outlook for everyone.
Personally I think it's foolish not to take his health into account. Indeed, Jobs himself felt it necessary to comment (even in jest) about his health at the last iPawd press event. AAPL stock is very different from many others, in that a very significant portion of its value is due to Jobs himself.

That said, I am still quite happy to invest in AAPL, esp. for the near term.

Anyways, I still think that $120 should represent an effective bottom. I'd be quite surprised to see AAPL below $100 (which is why I bought at $131 obviously). Of course things could change very quickly if some other big company fails... or Jobs says he's stepping down for health reasons.
     
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Sep 24, 2008, 09:51 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Why does a stock price of $100 mean illiquidity? As far as I can see, it trades extremely well. There are LOTS of buyers and sellers of the stock, just like there are LOTS of buyers and sellers of GOOG...
Ah, good question - the explanation is kind of involved. In the trading world there's a distinction drawn between liquidity and volume. A highly liquid stock trades a consistent amount of large lots, say over 1000 shares. An illiquid stock trades 100 or 200 share lots consistently. There can be high volume liquid stocks, but there can also be high volume illiquid stocks as well. AAPL south of $100, back where I used to trade it a few years ago, was a high volume liquid stock trading 500 to 1000 share lots pretty constantly.

North of $100, however, it remained high volume but became illiquid, trading 100 to 200 share lots. A lot of trading goes on but in smaller amounts per trade. The high prices reduce the number of active AAPL traders as well as the amount of shares traders can afford to buy and sell. And the reason why high liquidity is important traders is because it lets one trade a sufficient number of shares with little "slippage." I was accustomed to trading 500, 1000 or even 2000 share lots of AAPL. (Its also much more expensive to buy those quantities now, which is one important ramification. Working with fewer shares means it's much harder to produce desired trading gains.) Slippage is a big deal to traders.

If I'm working with 500 shares (let's say) and want to buy or sell at or near market price, I need sufficient liquidity so that I can buy or sell most or all of the shares at the inside bid or ask. But if the stock isn't liquid enough and only 200 share lots are being traded, when I try to buy or sell 500 shares at once I'll only be able to fill 200 shares at the price I wanted and the other 300 will get filled at outside prices that I don't want. That's what slippage is, and it can definitely hamper trades that hinge on mere pennies. The other problem with AAPL being less liquid is that in my experience it is more volatile than it formerly was and doesn't trend as well as it used to, but that's just my more recent anecdotal trading experience. Anyway, I imagine little to none of that is of interest to you as an AAPL investor, but that's what I meant regarding trading.
( Last edited by Big Mac; Sep 24, 2008 at 02:58 PM. )

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Sep 24, 2008, 09:51 AM
 
My problem is more that the subject of his health has been asked and answered. There is nothing wrong with Jobs that would impact his ability to run Apple.

Until there is a *reason* to believe otherwise, why should it matter?

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Sep 24, 2008, 09:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
My problem is more that the subject of his health has been asked and answered. There is nothing wrong with Jobs that would impact his ability to run Apple.

Until there is a *reason* to believe otherwise, why should it matter?
He has ALREADY been diagnosed with a pancreatic endocrine tumour for which he had major surgery. We know that while these tumours are often not as aggressive as usual pancreatic tumors, they can be very serious. We also know that he looks quite frail these days. And even if his frailty is due to perhaps the procedure itself (and not the tumour per se), he's still frail. It's even possible that after a couple more years like this he might just step back a bit.

While I do agree with you to an extent, it's not surprising that people are concerned.
     
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Sep 24, 2008, 09:57 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Until there is a *reason* to believe otherwise, why should it matter?
It matters a great deal to day traders who use leverage, and it matters to investors who hold large positions and want to be able to sleep at night.

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Sep 24, 2008, 10:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
He has ALREADY been diagnosed with a pancreatic endocrine tumour for which he had major surgery. We know that while these tumours are often not as aggressive as usual pancreatic tumors, they can be very serious. We also know that he looks quite frail these days. And even if his frailty is due to perhaps the procedure itself (and not the tumour per se), he's still frail. It's even possible that after a couple more years like this he might just step back a bit.

While I do agree with you to an extent, it's not surprising that people are concerned.
The thing is, if he still had pancreatic cancer he'd already be dead. That's not a slow cancer - it kills you quick.

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Sep 24, 2008, 10:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
The thing is, if he still had pancreatic cancer he'd already be dead. That's not a slow cancer - it kills you quick.
Incorrect. He was not diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. He was diagnosed with a pancreatic endocrine tumour. There is a world of difference between the two. And yes, pancreatic endocrine tumours are curable, but they can also progress slowly (or quickly depending on the type).

Anyways, I'm not saying he's still has cancer. I'm just saying that people are concerned about his health, and somewhat justifiably so.
     
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Sep 24, 2008, 01:47 PM
 
I agree with this guy, Ives is more important than Jobs to Apple anyway: http://seekingalpha.com/article/9710...s?source=yahoo

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Sep 24, 2008, 02:12 PM
 
I disagree completely. Jobs is the vision, whereas Ives is the creative genius need to fulfill that vision, but just in terms of hardware aesthetic design. He's not a software guy, nor is he an OS guy. Personally I don't think we'll see Ives as the CEO. It will go to someone else when Jobs steps down. Plus, I'm not convinced that Ives even wants the job.

If Ives got hit by a bus tomorrow, that would be a huge loss, but not as big of a loss for Apple as losing Jobs.

EDIT:

I love perusing the Google investor forums for AAPL. I thought it was bad enough that guys like us talk in generalities about AAPL, but these guys take it to a whole new level. They speak with such precision about AAPL prices and directions and market indicators... and end up being wrong about 45% of the time.

I get the impression that people talk with so much confidence is just because of the general nature of the market, so they're slightly more right than wrong. Stocks tend to go up in time, so that if you invest, you're likely eventually going to make money (excluding the loss from inflation). ie. Their luck (and ours) is better than going to a casino, but not because we know a lot.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 24, 2008 at 02:52 PM. )
     
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Sep 29, 2008, 10:31 AM
 
AAPL opened below $120 today. Ouch.
     
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Sep 29, 2008, 10:33 AM
 
Apple Slides After Morgan Stanley Predicts 10% Drop (Update1)

o'Reilly!??!??!?!?!? So next week let's predict a rise!?
Sick F.cks. Christmas Quarter is coming, anything connected to that???
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