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Jun 7, 2010, 12:50 PM
 
Well we're down a point with 15 minutes til the keynote starts. Maybe 5-10 point drop total? Almost time.

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Jun 7, 2010, 03:21 PM
 
Just over 4 point drop, but it seems to be in line with everything else for the day.

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Jun 16, 2010, 01:19 AM
 


Good little day for AAPL. En route to $300, mark my words.
     
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Jun 16, 2010, 01:47 AM
 
The market as a whole is quite low right now, I think we can expect the majority of stocks to rise over the next few months.
     
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Jun 17, 2010, 02:38 AM
 
Probably sounds like a killjoy to even speculate on this, but is Apple hitting its peak as a stock? No doubt they'll have an amazing next 18 months, but I think I'll be looking to take a majority of my profits off the table steadily. Here's my concern:

1.) I know that nobody wants to think of it, but if it's one thing we've seen in the last 2 years, it's that: a.) Steve Jobs will not live forever, b.) There is nobody in line to succeed him that has ANY panache or charisma. So when he goes... (which may not be too far in the future) - the company will be in a BAD position.

Unless that is, you think Phil Schiller or Timothy Cook can come up with the next "one more thing."

2.) Another thing to think about... where can Apple really go from here? Sure they'll always make nice machinery, and at the very least they'll continue to make handsome computers and peripherals. But with Jobs gone, where would the innovation come from? Who has the leadership?

3.) Even assuming the unlikely and Jobs lives another 20 years, what other space could Apple realistically enter? They own the mobile platform and show no signs of letting up. The new Mac Mini should all but help them slowly take over the TV and entertainment area. They have an ad platform. They're not going to do search (or so they say) I just don't see what other mountain there is to conquer. And that means no more explosive growth or crazy units being sold. I have little belief they'd enter the gaming arena (again).

With Steve Jobs referring to computers as "trucks," and ultimately suggesting the trend is shifting towards pad computing... ? What 'new' genre of devices could Apple really pioneer?

All that said, obviously Apple will continue to thrive and they're not going anywhere. But in reality, all we can really look forward to now are product revisions. The stock's rampant growth has been fueled by the company revolutionizing a variety of devices and lifestyle mediums. They've more or less tackled all of them short of a huge new technology emerging (unlikely)

So... without the continued potential for future growth on the same scale we've seen in the last 6 years, I see the stock flat lining at best.

Mind you, this won't be realized for at least another 18 months after the iPhone 4 sells world-wide (or Steve dies), but I am not as bullish on this after thinking long and hard on this stock.

Am I crazy?
( Last edited by Eyenigma; Jun 17, 2010 at 02:39 AM. Reason: typo)
     
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Jun 17, 2010, 09:20 AM
 
I think you are crazy. Just because you don't have the vision to see new market opportunities for Apple doesn't mean that they don't exist.

Also, they do NOT own the mobile market:


That's through 1Q 2010. There is a lot of room for growth in the mobile market.

I agree that Apple will suffer without Jobs. But if you think they aren't preparing for that now you're even crazier than I thought.

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Jun 17, 2010, 10:03 AM
 
The market already got to peek at how Apple would fare without Jobs during his little sabbatical; Quite well.
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Jun 18, 2010, 02:10 AM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
The market already got to peek at how Apple would fare without Jobs during his little sabbatical; Quite well.
Eh, not so fast Maynard. I don't think anyone for one second believed Jobs wasn't still at the helm. Sure he wasn't the acting CEO during that hiatus, but my guess is the company had a clear direction of what to work on while he was away. (My guess is it was the iPad finalization, which likely kept them quite busy.)

I'm thinking bigger picture here, really. Think for a second - does anyone for one second believe anyone OTHER than Steve is the driving force behind the majority of everything cool that comes out of Cupertino.

Anyone remember Gil Amelio? Scully? Apple is really screwing the pooch by not grooming in the NEXT cult leader to succeed the current. Honestly, Steve Jobs is the PT Barnum of our day and he's convinced a legion of people to not just buy WHAT Apple produces, we buy WHY Apple produces it. It's a lifestyle. A culture.

Without the "why" the what doesn't matter.

There's a movement taking place. A paradigm shift. Walk into any Starbucks or public setting and you'll likely see a pretty staggering amount of Apple products. Coming from someone who's been an Apple user for a LONG time, this wasn't nearly the case just a few years back. People used to stare when I pulled out anything with an Apple logo. There's a tipping point in progress... but the one thing that can completely derail the train (and stock price) is Jobs dying. *Especially suddenly.

All I'm saying is Apple should be showcasing the successor at every keynote. We should see him/her with Steve. We need to hear Steve tell us that he/she is the next 'Employee 0' -- because without that captain of the ship, I just don't see Apple really continuing the growth they've experienced long term. It's a short term play with the risky health of the company's leader. The closer AAPL gets to $300, the more I'm going to sell.

Obviously, I'll keep a little invested, so in this case I'm happy to be completely wrong. Who knows, maybe they ARE working on the Pippin 2...
     
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Sep 20, 2010, 10:26 AM
 
Bumping for the new high.
     
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Sep 20, 2010, 08:38 PM
 
It's been gaining steadily for the last few weeks now. My hunch is that it will hang around the $280 area for a while now as investors start selling a bit more to cash in on the recent gains. I'm guessing $300 by the end of the year...
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Oct 13, 2010, 10:31 AM
 
     
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Oct 13, 2010, 12:09 PM
 
I guess I was off in my prediction on when it would hit $300. We are really in unchartered waters at this point...
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Oct 13, 2010, 12:41 PM
 
Yeah, they're pegging it at $385 now. Crazy.
     
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Oct 13, 2010, 01:23 PM
 
Thats a pretty aggressive prediction, but then again, if they keep delivering the profits they way they have every.single.quarter for the last 3 years, I don't see why it wouldn't hit that target sooner rather than later. Especially considering the success of the iPad, the continued iPhone sales, and the potential for iPhone sales in 2011 (everyone knows what I'm referring to).
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Oct 13, 2010, 02:30 PM
 
Yeah. If they really do open up the market by bringing the iPhone to all the major US carriers (which, if they have a CDMA phone, covers everybody but T-Mobile), the number of iPhones out the wild could rise substantially.
     
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Oct 13, 2010, 08:27 PM
 
As long as Apple keeps firing on so many cylinders and upping revenue and profitability, the share price has to naturally increase. Don't be phased by the ostensibly high share price. For the last number of years Apple has been building a consumer technology empire that few tech companies could ever hope to create.

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Oct 17, 2010, 01:43 AM
 
my #1 concern right now reamins Steve's health. it's been a while now and he still hasn't gained back much weight.
     
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Oct 18, 2010, 08:33 PM
 
First $20 billion quarter, with over $4.3 billion in profit.

Pretty good. So good that AAPL dropped 6% back to below $300.
     
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Oct 18, 2010, 10:44 PM
 
It was up to $319. Pretty sure it'll catch up tomorrow.
     
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Oct 18, 2010, 11:36 PM
 
it drifted BELOW $300 in aftermarket trading!

god knows what happen tomorrow... hmhm....
     
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Oct 19, 2010, 12:17 AM
 
It was due for a pull back. Tomorrow's session will be telling.

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Oct 19, 2010, 12:40 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
It was due for a pull back.
Why? (Genuinely curious, I do own shares that I got at about $35.)
     
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Oct 19, 2010, 01:02 AM
 
Well you've done really well then. Congratulations, hope you got in big back then.

Stocks (and similar financial instruments) don't just go up (or down) in a straight, uninterrupted trajectory normally, and when they do you know you're ready for a pull back (or a relief rally in the case of a down stock). There are technical indicators that traders use to determine when things are overbought (or oversold). Even if a stock has everything going for it, it will on occasion sell off if for no reason other than being technically overbought.

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Oct 19, 2010, 01:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Well you've done really well then. Congratulations, hope you got in big back then.
Not even.. I had a friend that had just started working as an investment rep, and he kept BEGGING me to open an account. I didn't have a pot to piss in, but managed to scrape up the minimum he needed ($2K) to open an account. He told me I was making a huge mistake, and that he could "play with" my money and make me huge profits, but I made him put it all in apple and just sit on it. (He is no longer an investment rep).
Stocks (and similar financial instruments) don't just go up (or down) in a straight, uninterrupted trajectory normally, and when they do you know you're ready for a pull back (or a relief rally in the case of a down stock). There are technical indicators that traders use to determine when things are overbought (or oversold). Even if a stock has everything going for it, it will on occasion sell off if for no reason other than being technically overbought.
That's interesting, thanks.

Part of the reason I asked was because I was very, very close to putting in a sell at $300 and unloading. However, my risk is so small that it seems like a much better idea to ride it up for a while longer. Just like Sealobo, I'm watching what Steve LOOKS like every time I see him in public. If he starts to look "bad" I will pick up the phone and sell.

I can buy back in after the stock tanks with his departure.
     
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Oct 19, 2010, 01:36 AM
 
Cool. Your friend still was helpful to you, even though you didn't follow all of his advice.

And that's exactly the strategy I would employ if I had still had a direct interest in the stock, although it may be very difficult to predict SJ's departure and time a Sell order accordingly.

Another view: According to this analysis the AH sell-off can be at least partially attributed to disappointment over iPad sales. Yes, I wrote disappointment over iPad sales. Even though it's well known that sales have been red hot and the company can't keep up with demand. Nontheless, some were apparently disappointed that more weren't sold this quarter.
( Last edited by Big Mac; Oct 19, 2010 at 02:06 AM. )

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Oct 19, 2010, 04:11 AM
 
Sometimes (most of the time) analysts (and the stock market in general) burn me up! Take a company that, in a recession is making profit at a faster rate than the US treasury can print money, manufactures the two hottest tech products on the planet, and analysts are "disappointed".
     
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Oct 19, 2010, 08:18 AM
 
The price of the stock wasn't reflecting reasonable estimates. It got inflated, by inflated iPad sales number guesses and inflated guidance guesses.

Anyways, I wouldn't be surprised to see a small pullback with the market at large today, given that China has raised its lending rate.
     
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Jan 3, 2011, 04:06 PM
 
this thread deserves a bump today.

AAPL now a 300 billion company.

Amazing.
     
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Jan 3, 2011, 05:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sealobo View Post
this thread deserves a bump today.

AAPL now a 300 billion company.

Amazing.
Very strong day today. I see it going to $400, but I am putting trailing stops along the way.
I still shudder to think what would happen if Uncle Steve kicked off. There's no successor that has ever been clearly identified.
     
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Jan 10, 2011, 01:19 AM
 
Facebook for iPhone Statistics

Facebook for iPhone is often among the first applications people download upon getting their iPhones... so i guess this chart would serve as a good proxy for the actual pace iPhone (iOS device?) activation.
     
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Jan 11, 2011, 05:24 PM
 
Verizon iPhone is announced, and the stock drops? Sometimes I hate AAPL.

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Jan 11, 2011, 06:50 PM
 
If you have a lot of money, you can set up computers with fancy spatial algorithms and exploit the fact that there's no mediated time between trades. There are investors making millions of dollars doing absolutely nothing but using computing clusters to trade stocks at factions of a cent in change by exploiting the milliseconds it takes for the Stock Exchange to register a trade and report the stock value.

Now there are hackers who are doing the same thing. All of it is currently legal.

They could fix it by setting all trades to a regular, timed interval. Say every 1/4 second the system completes trades. Unfortunately the people with lots of money exploiting the market system are also the biggest lobbyers.
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Jan 12, 2011, 02:20 AM
 
Originally Posted by olePigeon View Post
If you have a lot of money, you can set up computers with fancy spatial algorithms and exploit the fact that there's no mediated time between trades. There are investors making millions of dollars doing absolutely nothing but using computing clusters to trade stocks at factions of a cent in change by exploiting the milliseconds it takes for the Stock Exchange to register a trade and report the stock value.

Now there are hackers who are doing the same thing. All of it is currently legal.

They could fix it by setting all trades to a regular, timed interval. Say every 1/4 second the system completes trades. Unfortunately the people with lots of money exploiting the market system are also the biggest lobbyers.
I don't understand such "exploit".

All the trades are queued. for every buy or sell there must be counter bid/offer of equal amount for a trade to bind. There is no way a computer can find out SOMEONE has decided to buy up to 5 ticks over current market price and then decide to act and buy up to 4 ticks over current and OFFER to sell at 5 ticks over.

I would be very interested to know how it can be worked out.
     
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Jan 12, 2011, 02:35 AM
 


I guess I was way off, albeit right...
AAPL is going to level off soon I think. I don't see it going above $400 unless there is a breakthrough product (technology) in the works. e.g. iPhone 5 or iPad 2 *that blows our socks off.
     
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Jan 12, 2011, 02:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sealobo View Post
I don't understand such "exploit".
The algorithms don't need to "trick" anyone. They're simply looking for spreads of FRACTIONS of a penny. The profit is made on the littlest of margins, in volume.
     
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Jan 12, 2011, 05:34 AM
 
I agree, its a little frustrating. A huge announcement like this and both AAPL and VZ are both down. :/
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Jan 12, 2011, 10:09 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eyenigma View Post
The algorithms don't need to "trick" anyone. They're simply looking for spreads of FRACTIONS of a penny. The profit is made on the littlest of margins, in volume.
so it's not really an exploit. it's just arbitration done by computer.

i have a friend who programs for high frequency algorithm trading for JPM and he said the modeling personality trades like a wuss.
     
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Mar 16, 2011, 10:23 AM
 
Any insight on the ~15 point drop over the past two days? I figured with the iPad 2 being such a hit we'd see a surge.

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Mar 16, 2011, 10:46 AM
 
I wouldn't touch AAPL with a 6-foot pole anymore, at least not as a long-term investment.

I'm not saying that I think the stock will tank, I just think we're at the point where the company's valuation is such that the risk now outweighs the potential gain.
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Mar 16, 2011, 11:55 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Any insight on the ~15 point drop over the past two days? I figured with the iPad 2 being such a hit we'd see a surge.
Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami.

In case you haven't noticed the stock markets have taken a broad hit. The earthquake is the primary driver at the moment.
     
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Mar 16, 2011, 12:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by Person Man View Post
Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami.

In case you haven't noticed the stock markets have taken a broad hit. The earthquake is the primary driver at the moment.
That's what I was thinking, but wasn't sure. I honestly don't pay attention to the overall market - the only stock I personally track is AAPL. Anything else is handled by people smarter than me.

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Mar 16, 2011, 01:22 PM
 
The whole market has reached some resistance now that its at a 2 year high. It's at the same level it was before the crash of 08. So people are hesitant to push stocks any higher. This is time for correction on the market. We should note that a few of apple's suppliers are in japan and some parts might be delayed a few weeks....which could effect apple's next earnings. Im really not sure whats going to happen now; Many, including me, are wondering if the economy is really doing as good as it was before the crash and if the current stock prices are justifiable considering how inflated they've been in the past 5 years. I'll be watching Apple for a call opportunity in the next few weeks. Definitely dont want to buy those when the markets flat.
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Mar 16, 2011, 03:50 PM
 
Some info extracted from the last quarter's 10-Q:

FY ending 25 Dec 2010
Regional OPERATING INCOME [share] (YoY growth) in USD millions

Americas: $2,899 [31.2%] (+60.1%)
Europe/Middle East/Africa: $2,756 [29.6%] (+27.3%)
Japan: $572 [6.2%] (+61.6%)
Asia-Pacific: $2,042 [22%] (+149%)
Apple stores worldwide: $1,030 [11.1%] (+114%)

TOTAL: $9,299 [100%] (+65.1%)
     
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Mar 16, 2011, 04:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Any insight on the ~15 point drop over the past two days? I figured with the iPad 2 being such a hit we'd see a surge.
I'm also seeing some concern, not about Apple, but about their suppliers. There's a story making the rounds today that Foxcomm is having difficulty keep up production to meet the demand of Apple products. So it's not that Apple's doing badly, it's that they're getting "punished" that their demand is so high and their suppliers are not stepping up.
     
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Mar 16, 2011, 06:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
I wouldn't touch AAPL with a 6-foot pole anymore, at least not as a long-term investment.

I'm not saying that I think the stock will tank, I just think we're at the point where the company's valuation is such that the risk now outweighs the potential gain.
I agree with the second part. I think that it is a sound long term investment at this point, but I think the days of huuuge short term gains (summer of 2007 to present in particular) are behind us. But I do agree that the risk outweighs the potential gain if someone is trying to turn a worth while profit with less than a year commitment.
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Mar 16, 2011, 06:18 PM
 
It's a very good longterm investment, compared to other stocks. I think it'll split soon (<9 months) and it'll go through the roof again.
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Apr 20, 2011, 04:40 PM
 
2Q11 EPS $6.40

holy sh!t.
     
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Apr 25, 2011, 12:24 AM
 
Apple seals $66 billion in Jobsian wallet - The Register discusses Apple's mammoth cash reserves

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Apr 25, 2011, 04:21 AM
 
Most modern companies expanded by M&A; a lot of banks and finance companies do that, and see that as the most effective way to move the company forward as the markets become increasingly saturated and competitors specialized. These companies expanded revenue stream and diversify shareholding structure at the same time.

Apple did it totally differently. They innovated, and buy (small) companies for their usable intellectual properties, not their proven revenue models. Apple comes up with an idea and they look for the parts they need to put it together.

I believe the liquidity will allow Apple to dream BIGGER than ever. And seriously, $66b isn't an crazy amount of money; the US military budget is 10 times as much this year... now THAT's a mother****ing crazy amount. $66b is probably barely enough for Apple to come up with something that will significantly change the world through applicable technology, again.

So no, i don't think Apple will do a major acquisition UNLESS the technology is so unique they must buy it out for them to secure an exclusive advantage over competitions. And nowadays there is nothing too unique anyway; everyone is copying everyone and the cost of potential settlement is probably cheaper than any buyout or in-house R&D.
     
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Apr 25, 2011, 04:53 AM
 
I agree with much of that, Sealobo. However, at a certain point Apple's terrific growth rate will slow, and share holders will demand dividend to keep the share price growing and to reward holders of it. That's not going to happen any time soon, but it will happen eventually.

At least only a fraction of the stockpile is actually in cash. Shareholders would have a right to complain if it were just all in fiat sitting around gaining measly interest given creeping inflation.

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