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Clinically Insane
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Jan 24, 2013, 09:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Apple just closed out the most profitable year in the history of corporations. Ever.

SELL!!! PANIC!!!1!!!
It's not a panic.

Apple was priced as a growth stock, but that era is coming to an end.
That doesn't mean growth or profits stop, you just won't see the same amount of growth any more, and margins are going to head lower.

-t
     
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Jan 24, 2013, 11:04 AM
 
I got in at 458 and sold at 463 and change today about 30 minutes later. Made a few hundred dollars. Maybe should have waited longer, but I'm happy with my decision.
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Jan 24, 2013, 09:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by mindwaves View Post
I got in at 458 and sold at 463 and change today about 30 minutes later. Made a few hundred dollars. Maybe should have waited longer, but I'm happy with my decision.
I bet tons of people got burned. They got in in the morning, expecting a pop, and it never materialized.

-t
     
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Jan 25, 2013, 12:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I bet tons of people got burned. They got in in the morning, expecting a pop, and it never materialized.

-t
Yes, that was my idea also, but a few dollars pop was all I wanted and got. You never know, tomorrow it might go up 50. But I'm happy as is.
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Jan 25, 2013, 06:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by mindwaves View Post
Yes, that was my idea also, but a few dollars pop was all I wanted and got. You never know, tomorrow it might go up 50. But I'm happy as is.
Last week I was a bit skeptical when the technical analysts talked about a head and shoulders top that formed over the last few months. I figured, they'd post good results this quarter and the stock would go back up. Then, sure enough, they posted good results and the stock tanked. My memory might be a bit hazy, but IIRC after such big drops, AAPL doesn't recover all that quickly.
     
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Jan 25, 2013, 10:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by mindwaves View Post
Yes, that was my idea also, but a few dollars pop was all I wanted and got. You never know, tomorrow it might go up 50. But I'm happy as is.
That's just gambling, and you got lucky.How many poor souls greedy speculators got in at $450, and are now under water. Yes, you can always hold and hope, but that's just stupid gambling.

You might as well go to the casino.

-t
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 04:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
That's just gambling, and you got lucky.How many poor souls greedy speculators got in at $450, and are now under water. Yes, you can always hold and hope, but that's just stupid gambling.

You might as well go to the casino.
Heh. I sort of feel that way but then again with the casino the odds are stacked in favour of the house. With the stock market in general, the odds are stacked in favour of the investor (sort of), since the market overall goes up with time long term.

Of course though, if you only wager... errr... invest... small amounts, you'll get killed by transaction fees. And if you bet $10000 at the casino, everyone thinks you need an intervention for your compulsive gambling.

Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
It's not a panic.

Apple was priced as a growth stock, but that era is coming to an end.
That doesn't mean growth or profits stop, you just won't see the same amount of growth any more, and margins are going to head lower.
People are clamouring for an increased stock buyback or increased dividends, or both. Kinda makes sense given that they have $137 billion in cash now.

With that they could buy either Qualcomm or Intel outright in cash.

5 Tech Companies That Apple Could Buy Just With Its Cash | Benzinga

They've fallen back to 2nd biggest company though, after Exxon-Mobil.
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 03:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Heh. I sort of feel that way but then again with the casino the odds are stacked in favour of the house. With the stock market in general, the odds are stacked in favour of the investor (sort of), since the market overall goes up with time long term.
LOL, but not true.

In stock market gambling, it's the same as with the casino: the odds are stacked in favour of the house.

The house in this case is large investment banks, that front-run investors with HFT schemes, and use insider knowledge to be always a step ahead of the "ordinary" investor.

-t
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 05:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
The house in this case is large investment banks, that front-run investors with HFT schemes, and use insider knowledge to be always a step ahead of the "ordinary" investor.
Not just a step ahead, they actually 'make' the markets.
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 05:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by mattyb View Post
Not just a step ahead, they actually 'make' the markets.
Well, no. "Market making" is not an illegal activity, and should (in theory) add liquidity to the markets. Market makers don't (shouldn't) put small investors in a disadvantageous position.

What's really happening is much more than market making.

But then again, the SEC is busy checking our pr0n, so they're not doing anything about it. Meanwhile, more than 80% off the market and trades are HFT computers, fleecing the small investors.

-t
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 06:31 PM
 
Well yes. Notice the quotes that I used. Large investment banks, being joined at the hip to savings banks, 'make' (notice the quotes there) the products that are sold to savings banks customers, sometimes known as investors. They also 'make' (quotes again there) or did 'make', products such as Credit Default Swaps which they also sell to savings bank customers as well as investment bank customers, also known as investors. They also 'made' and sold to each other, these (to use Warren Buffet's term) financial weapons of mass destruction.

A market maker is another term, I'll post a link here for you : Market maker - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
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Jan 26, 2013, 08:45 PM
 
So invest in the large investment banks then.

     
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Jan 27, 2013, 02:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
So invest in the large investment banks then.
Sure: Heads- you lose, Tails - they win.

-t
     
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Jan 28, 2013, 07:22 AM
 
Yea boi turtle, rage against the machine maaaaaan
Mankind's only chance is to harness the power of stupid.
     
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Jan 30, 2013, 12:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by ShortcutToMoncton View Post
Yea boi turtle, rage against the machine maaaaaan
I am, I'm buying silver and gold

-t
     
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Jan 30, 2013, 01:57 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
It's not a panic.

Apple was priced as a growth stock, but that era is coming to an end.
That doesn't mean growth or profits stop, you just won't see the same amount of growth any more, and margins are going to head lower.

-t
I think you hit the nail on the head.
     
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Feb 14, 2013, 08:24 PM
 
So it looks like various hedge funds dumped a ton of Apple shares last fall:

Big hedge funds fueled Apple's 4th-quarter share plunge | Reuters

EDIT: I see it was already posted on MacNN News and the Tech News forum, but I'm a Lounge rat.
     
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Mar 11, 2013, 06:10 PM
 
Time to buy guys. If you can put it aside for 6 months then i don't see how you can lose money on this one.

disclaimer: bought shares today @ $429
     
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Mar 11, 2013, 08:29 PM
 
I agree. I also bought today but at $427. Most likely will sell tomorrow as I'm hoping to make some quick cash.
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Mar 13, 2013, 12:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sealobo View Post
Time to buy guys. If you can put it aside for 6 months then i don't see how you can lose money on this one.
That's almost as convincing as that clown Cramer.

-t
     
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Mar 13, 2013, 08:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
That's almost as convincing as that clown Cramer.

-t
the share price of Apple has now been driven down to ridiculous level. has it bottomed? i don't know. but is it cheap? sure as hell it is.

i only did 2 trades on AAPL ever; i bought 800 shares @ $175 back in 2008... and sold them all @ $680 last year. Yes i held onto them for 4 years. now i'm buying again for the following reasons:

- company is still growing
- gross margin is healthy
- company has zero debt
- take out all the cash, the shares are trading at P/E under 6.5x
- iOS is a unique experience. Android isn't. Nokia can be making an android phone next year and "kill" samsung's margin and drive product quality down for all i know.
     
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Mar 13, 2013, 11:04 AM
 
I'd be really leery of buying a stock that doesn't seem to go up or down based on what's actually happening in the real world.

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Mar 13, 2013, 06:30 PM
 
Am I crazy or is the amount of crazily spun anti-apple articles coming from legitimate news sources going way up?

I'm not one to be all conspiratorial, but at some point you just have to ask yourself what the heck is going on.

It's like they look at a sheet full of facts, 20 of which are good for apple, 2 of which are neutral or bad and then write a story about the 2 bad things, completely ignoring every piece of positive information.

I really think it's starting to have some effect. My father, who knows f***all about computers and the tech industry, but a metric s***ton about the financial world and I were having a conversation about his Apple stock the other day, and the "information" he had about the mobile landscape and whatnot was just so far removed from reality that it shocked me. He's getting his information about this stuff from all of these big news sources and financial reporters and they are feeding him and people like him total misinformation.

What's the deal?

EDIT:

Main Theories...
1. Apple stories generate crazy page-views and anti-apple stories are even better.
2. People planting goofball stories to manipulate the stock.
3. Many tech writers fall into the android/windows superfan category and have a bone to pick with Apple.

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Mar 13, 2013, 07:34 PM
 
Whatever is bad for Apple seems to be the news du jour for the tabloids, because people sense weakness at the helm, and they can get away with it. Steve plowed through any storm (giving it the finger), but Tim apologizes and then corrects the ship at every little change of the wind. He isn't CEO material, at least not for a company like Apple.
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Mar 13, 2013, 11:24 PM
 
For AAPL to have another big run, there needs to be a catalyst.
None of the stocks really trade on fundamentals these days, so just a nice P/E or Dividend Yield means nothing.

-t
     
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Mar 14, 2013, 04:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
For AAPL to have another big run, there needs to be a catalyst.
None of the stocks really trade on fundamentals these days, so just a nice P/E or Dividend Yield means nothing.

-t
very true. and who would bet against Apple for not having something up her sleeves?
     
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Mar 14, 2013, 05:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
For AAPL to have another big run, there needs to be a catalyst.
Couldn't agree more. I think a bigger play for $AAPL could be the (alleged) finger print technology acquisition. Imagine if the next big thing, wasn't a thing at all. But rather a concept of simplifying passwords in a smart, Apple like way.
     
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Mar 14, 2013, 10:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sealobo View Post
very true. and who would bet against Apple for not having something up her sleeves?
I'm not betting against it, but I also don't see anything concrete on the horizon.
The rumored Apple TV set won't be it.

The one thing where I could see potential is making the ATV a gaming console pitted against the PS or XBox.

Problem is, how do you get more people to buy that than the iPhones and iPads. A gaming or entertainment console just isn't the same blockbuster as smart phones and tablets.

-t
     
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Mar 14, 2013, 10:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
The one thing where I could see potential is making the ATV a gaming console pitted against the PS or XBox.
Absolutely will not happen. Not to that level anyway. Apple would have no interest in competing in that ecosystem. But an TV running basic, low processor apps, like Angry Birds is realistic.

But for them to develop a full console with the horsepower of an XBOX or PS - would never happen. The landscape is too competitive and developers are already spread thin between two platforms as it is. We don't need a third (or fourth if you count Nintendo). PS4 has the right idea in running games that are also (effectively) ports of the PC counterparts. Apple has the same model, for the most part, with iOS. So -if- apps come to the TV, they'll be iOS ports and thus, limited to what a typical mobile device can run.
     
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Mar 31, 2013, 02:02 AM
 

Ripe for the taking
     
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Mar 31, 2013, 07:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mitt Romney View Post

Ripe for the taking
It'll dip into the $430's or even the $420's again. Apple desperately needs to announce... something.
Dividend. Buy Back. New Product. New... something.
     
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Mar 31, 2013, 09:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eyenigma View Post
It'll dip into the $430's or even the $420's again. Apple desperately needs to announce... something.
Dividend. Buy Back. New Product. New... something.
How do you know that's enough to substantially lift it ?

IMO, if the news is not absolutely big and unexpected, it's already mostly priced in.
AAPL is going to be in the $400-$500 channel for a looooooong time.

-t
     
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Mar 31, 2013, 09:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
How do you know that's enough to substantially lift it ?
I don't. Great observation. It just seems the average "investor" really cozies up to the stock when they hear of pending news or product announcements. Case in point, the rumors of an alleged large dividend seemed to propel the stock north.

IMO, if the news is not absolutely big and unexpected, it's already mostly priced in.
AAPL is going to be in the $400-$500 channel for a looooooong time.
Agreed. I think the white hot days of everyone and their pet chicken wanting a piece of the action are over. $GOOG for all intents and purposes is a better investment these days.

All theory and conjecture, but I suspect the next big "thing" from Apple won't be a product at all. It'll be a service. For instance, supposing this fingerprint recognition acquisition ultimately manifests itself into (hypothetically) a way you never needed a password ever again. Biometrics actually done right. Just a thought, but boy would that jumpstart the stock again.

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Apr 1, 2013, 02:44 AM
 
One of the laws of Apple rumors is this: the older a rumor is, the more likely it is to be based on fact.

Remember how we put up with the tablet, iWalk, iSlate ("is late"), etc., rumors for almost a decade before the iPad was released? Or the endless rumors of an Apple phone (punctuated by the abortive release of the ROKR)? If a rumor keeps lingering for years, it is likely because Apple really is working on that product, and waiting till the right time to release it.

So, I think the "iTV" rumors are true, and Apple really is working on a device/platform/etc. that will truly revolutionize TV. I could be completely wrong, but I have faith that TV will be Apple's next big thing, the stock will rebound, and Apple can enjoy a small break from the "Apple is doomed!" narrative.
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Apr 1, 2013, 03:10 AM
 
There is no doubt. None. That Apple is working on the TV. But the problem or challenge is not the product. It's the content. iTunes worked only because record companies disregarded the venture as a bad idea. So they were willing to play ball, with what they thought was, a model that would never rally gain traction.

TV, having seen record companies all but shrivel up and die, know they'd better hold on to their warped business model as long as they humanly can. So until Apple can deliver a content deal to compliment any new device, there will be no new Apple TV beyond the iteration we've already seen.

I'd say the iWatch is more likely to see the light of day than an Apple TV. And even that will be challenge unless a viable need can be filled. Apple's products are great but each new introduction comes at the expense or detriment of an existing product.
     
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Apr 1, 2013, 08:50 AM
 
Even if Apple came out with an iTV and an iWatch, I fail to see how these are "game changers" in the same way the iPhone and iPad were.
You're dealing with a much more limited customer base.

Plus, I agree, those two products are expected to happen. Therefore, the iTV and iWatch are already for the most part priced into AAPL.

-t
     
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Apr 1, 2013, 02:53 PM
 
I agree with you Eyenigma that an iTV would have to be all about content. Also, the major players in the TV industry, like Comcast, have little or no incentive to change their business model. If Apple can find a way to shake up things on the content side, it would be huge. Not entirely sure if it's possible, though.

Turtle--I don't think an iWatch would be a game changer either. The idea seems gimmicky. Just my thoughts.
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Apr 1, 2013, 03:43 PM
 
I see the iWatch as more of an add-on or accessory and less of a new product pillar for the company.

The problem is that the whole world seems to expect every product they put out to change the world.

I think Apple would have trouble launching an iWatch and simultaneously making it seem great and desirable while at the same time keeping investors expectations about what it means to the company in check.

The really seem to have a problem with expectations. They really don't need to reinvent the whole watch industry. No one should really expect them too either.

The problem is that we all know as soon as it hits the media and market will start beating them up over it... no matter what it is, what it does and how much it costs.

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Apr 1, 2013, 03:52 PM
 
I feel like the watch would have to be revolutionary to get people to wear one again. Otherwise, all you're left with is the next AppleTV, at best.
     
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Apr 1, 2013, 05:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eyenigma View Post
It'll dip into the $430's or even the $420's again. Apple desperately needs to announce... something.
Dividend. Buy Back. New Product. New... something.
Well, worst day for APPL in 10 weeks. An no announcement. LOL.

-t
     
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Apr 2, 2013, 01:45 PM
 
Or close up shop and return the money to the shareholders.
     
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Apr 2, 2013, 03:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I feel like the watch would have to be revolutionary to get people to wear one again. Otherwise, all you're left with is the next AppleTV, at best.
That's the funny thing. I don't think they need or want it to be a new revolution... but if they put one out, knowing it's more of a "hobby" product... it could actually do more harm to the company from bad press and stock price drops that it would offset any financial benefit.

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Apr 9, 2013, 11:55 AM
 
who's ready to squeeze these mofo?

How Apple Inc. got swarmed - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech
     
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Apr 9, 2013, 02:43 PM
 
I've shorted AAPL many times over the last year, I don't feel bad at all. If they don't like it they can actually buy the stock instead of leasing it.

Remember, if any stock is worth selling, it's worth shorting.
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Apr 17, 2013, 10:30 AM
 
Bloodbath today? Was already trading $5 below close before the market opened.
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Apr 17, 2013, 01:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
I've shorted AAPL many times over the last year, I don't feel bad at all. If they don't like it they can actually buy the stock instead of leasing it.

Remember, if any stock is worth selling, it's worth shorting.
Same here, it's part of the rules of the game. I don't understand why people get so upset about it. In the old days they used to tell you don't invest in stocks unless it's extra money you can afford to loose, and you know EXACTLY what you're doing. Now they tell everyone just throw all your life savings in, it will go up forever... and it's so easy an etrade baby can do it.

I pictured it going the way of the microsoft a while ago. The iphone revolutionized how we do things. The TV is just a better TV; unless it's holographic or something.
( Last edited by el chupacabra; Apr 17, 2013 at 06:01 PM. )
     
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Apr 17, 2013, 01:29 PM
 
People selling on the Foxconn hiring for iPhone 6 rumors?
     
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Apr 17, 2013, 07:18 PM
 
Apple’s amazing decline, in four fascinating charts – Quartz

wow... woke up in the morning and AAPL @ $400

buying shares tomorrow, hope it will dip below $400 again.
     
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Apr 17, 2013, 07:29 PM
 
Supplier's warning pushes Apple stock below $400 | Reuters

So... Cirrus Logic made a negative forecast. They supplies for the iphone and ipad and its 90% of their business.

But how much Apple is relying on Cirrus Logic for the supplies? Apple must have multiple suppliers even for the very same component. It's common sense never to rely on a single supplier without alternative options. Maybe the component contract has been awarded to some Taiwanese manufacturer. who knows?
     
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Apr 17, 2013, 08:04 PM
 
Cirrus Logic owns the chip design. It's an audio decoder / DAC chip. This isn't like switching RAM suppliers or Flash storage manufacturers. Different manufacturers' chips sound different.

Up until the iPod with video, Apple used only Wolfson DACs IIRC. They switched to Cirrus in the classic and have been using them (to my knowledge) exclusively since then.

FWIW, LG seems to be agreeing with the story, with lower orders for their displays.

Of course, May could just be a new release, with the current displays just going into the original iPad mini, which will remain on sale at $229 for 8GB.
     
 
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