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Market Crash
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Jan 22, 2008, 09:42 AM
 
Any ideas about money today?

I've been saying to family and friends that this was going to happen and it did. Inevitable.

How much have you lost - if only on paper?

Today's gonna be a rough one.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 09:46 AM
 
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 09:52 AM
 
I lost about 23%...so far...
***
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:28 AM
 
badidea: It's probably a badidea to sell right now.

2 minutes to go before the eagle lands...

(before market opens)
     
 (op)
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:41 AM
 
down -400+.

Not too bad, considering overseas...
     
air
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:48 AM
 
oh. my. lawd. down 23%
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:51 AM
 
The end of the day will tell what's what. If people sell off or the sharks are out to buy. Market coming back slightly.

Apple is down, way down. Almost 7%.

     
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:55 AM
 
Crash? The market is better than it should be.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:13 AM
 
Uhm, ok, bottomed out yet ? Don't think so.

Last recession, from highs in early 2000 to lows in 2002: DOW JONES down about 35%.
This time, highs in Oct 2007 to now: DOW JONES down about 17%.

It took 3 years to recover from the dotcom bust, the mortgage crisis is gonna take at least that long.

We still have a long way to go...

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:24 AM
 
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.

While my 401k is taking a beating, I don't own any stocks outright. There's little that I can do and I'm not about to shuffle my money around because of this.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:29 AM
 
We don't move money around at all when the market is volatile. It just sits in a time-out.

I agree that the market could be a lot worse. In '87 the market went down about 2500 points. We have a long way to go before we approach that.

Hearing talk, though, that Ben Bernanke may be given the boot.

Not sure if that's good or bad. He's no Alan Greenspan.

Ben Bernanke vs. Greenspan
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by  View Post
badidea: It's probably a badidea to sell right now.
Don't worry, I didn't sell when the stocks were at ~ +85% and I won't sell now, of course!
It's not that much money and they were a present of my insurance company anyway!
So in fact I'm still on the positive side - those stocks just lost around 23% in 2 days and around 50% in 3 months!
***
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:41 AM
 
Originally Posted by MacosNerd View Post
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.
What controls ?
What action ?

It's too late, the Fed blew it by not cutting quickly enough, now the mess will spread. There is nothing that can prevent it from getting worse.

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:45 AM
 
I'm so glad I slept past the market open. I'd have had a heart attack if I hadn't.

I'm really not having a bad day at all at the moment. Still down but not much. Partly because my largest stock is up on the rate cut.

Trying to decide if I should totally get out of everything now, before the market decides that the rate cut means nothing and tanks again.
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
Trying to decide if I should totally get out of everything now, before the market decides that the rate cut means nothing and tanks again.
Well, if you can get out and still take a way some gains, do it.

If you already incurred loses, you might as well stick it out.

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:49 AM
 
Can't even log in to my brokerage site. It's getting hammered.
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:50 AM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
Can't even log in to my brokerage site. It's getting hammered.
Let's hope your broker is not broke

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:52 AM
 
is this part of a trend, perhaps why my 401k did so poorly last quarter? the only thing that made money was Stable Income.

I guess I'm leaving my 401k as is, I don't know what to shuffle it to.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
is this part of a trend, perhaps why my 401k did so poorly last quarter? the only thing that made money was Stable Income.

I guess I'm leaving my 401k as is, I don't know what to shuffle it to.
Yeah, mine took a beating, and kinda killed what was a good year.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
What controls ?
What action ?

-t
Generally the market restricts trading in situations like this. In the past this has helped stem the bleeding. Its really a short term fix and stops people from really panicking. It does not address the situation that causes the free fall but it helps people catch their breath.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by MacosNerd View Post
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.
Government intervention!?

DAMN YOU SOCIALISS!

     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:02 PM
 
Here's a snapshot as of 11:00am
Not too bad, it looks like its trying to fight back
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth View Post
Yeah, my thread on this is from yesterday. No surprise, since the crash already happened yesterday everywhere else in the world.

The surprise was that it wasn't worse, because Ben Bernanke decided to cut rates by a whopping 0.75%, before the crash started.

Thus, today's US crash is quite muted.

Anyways, AAPL dropped below $150 today. I didn't get in on that, but I got some at above $150.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:10 PM
 
Too bad it wasn't a full point. I'm looking to refi my house and I want to lower my monthly mortgage payments.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:10 PM
 
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.

Is anybody using today as opportunity to step out until things calm down?

(Still can't login to TDAmeritrade....)
I like chicken
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.

Is anybody using today as opportunity to step out until things calm down?
I had cashed out much of my stock last summer, since I bought a house. Today I put a bit more money back into the market.

I don't quite understand why you'd get out now anyway. The time to get out was months ago. Or do you think the market is going to tank some more? It could, but I think the value now is reasonable for a correction, at least in light of the rate cut. I was expecting more of a 600 point drop, but that was before the early and big 0.75% rate drop.

(Still can't login to TDAmeritrade....)
Interesting. Must be on completely different servers. I had no problem with my TD Waterhouse in Canada, to buy US stocks.


Originally Posted by MacosNerd View Post
Too bad it wasn't a full point. I'm looking to refi my house and I want to lower my monthly mortgage payments.
Consider yourself lucky. 0.75% was already unexpected.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:29 PM
 
I've lost about 0.18% so far today.

And my 5 year average has been about 18% AYPR.

What crash?
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:38 PM
 
I pulled out years ago too... thinking about silver, gold, poppy crops, slaves.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.
I started selling in Nov, so right now, my 401k holdings are about 70% stock and 30% cash.

I'm not decided yet how I'm gonna continue, but I think I might only sell a few more stocks (those that I absolutely see no upside potential in the near future), keep the rest and start buying into the weakness in the next 6 months.

I will probably buy more stock with great dividend yield. Yes, the dividends are going to be cut, but right now, some stock have just unbelievably great yield.

E.g.
AYR Div yield 12.5%
GLS Div yield 11.1%
DSX Div yield 10.8%
MO Div yield 3.9% (pretty recession safe)
USB Div yield 5.6% (holding up well for a financial, 1.5% gain compared to mid of Aug 07 crash)

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Railroader View Post
I've lost about 0.18% so far today.

And my 5 year average has been about 18% AYPR.

What crash?
quick everyone, get him! we'll divvy up his wallet, mastrap can have his hats, but I want his SHOES!
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:54 PM
 
401k getting no love, but ima keep everything where it is. Just bide my time and ride it out.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 01:18 PM
 
Here's to hoping AAPL annihilates earnings estimates...
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Jan 22, 2008, 01:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
quick everyone, get him! we'll divvy up his wallet, mastrap can have his hats, but I want his SHOES!
railROADER not railHEAD.

I have no hats other than a Red Wing baseball hat. I do have a nice pair of Simards though. Otherwise it's K-Swiss all the way.




Seriously, didn't you people see this thing coming months ago? Look in any local newspaper (yes, the paper version) and look at the legal notices of foreclosure. Look at the debt people are carrying!

You people had to duck and move off the path to not see the signs of a major correction getting ready to occur.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 01:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
Here's to hoping AAPL annihilates earnings estimates...
I'm not counting my chickens, but I hope so, considering I bought today.

C'mon Apple, don't follow that sell-on-news rule!
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 01:58 PM
 
I just crossed into the green for the day. Man, I love NLY...
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:09 PM
 
I hope nothing bad happens but the News I listen to has been talking about this
as an inevitability for about 2 years now saying that collapsing the dollar is part
of a publicly researchable plan that goes along with the merger of US, Canada,
and Mexico.
WorldNetDaily: 'Bush doesn't think America should be an actual place'
WorldNetDaily: London stock trader urges move to 'amero'

Most of those same news people say that Brittan is the main player in all this.

Ya think they're still mad about the tea?

--
These seem relative as well:
WorldNetDaily: U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse?
The Declining US Dollar: Winners And Losers
WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets ***
( Last edited by Tesselator; Jan 22, 2008 at 02:35 PM. )
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by Tesselator View Post
I hope nothing bad happens but the News I listen to has been talking about this
as an inevitability for about 2 years now saying that collapsing the dollar is part
of a publicly researchable plan that goes along with the merger of US, Canada,
and Mexico.
WorldNetDaily: 'Bush doesn't think America should be an actual place'
WorldNetDaily: London stock trader urges move to 'amero'

Most of those same news people say that Brittan is the main player in all this.

Ya think they're still mad about the tea?

--
This seems relative as well: WorldNetDaily: U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse?
I think you should get better news sources.
     
 (op)
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:18 PM
 
WorldNetDaily?



I'm conservative but think that the market is going to keep on bumping and grinding all along the bottom leaving those of us along for the ride with skinned knees.

But, if you can hold on then hold on and your skinned knees will heel.

Someday.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the day closes.

I think a lot of today had to do with Bank of America's issues - China had some issues today because they dumped Bank of America and Bank of China was also way down. (Are they dumping their own money? No confidence in themselves?)
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by Tesselator View Post
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.

Did you even look at the date ?

Posted: December 10, 2006
5:38 p.m. Eastern

WTF ?

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by  View Post
Hearing talk, though, that Ben Bernanke may be given the boot.
Where have you heard that? I haven't heard any reputable sources suggest that.

Not sure if that's good or bad. He's no Alan Greenspan.

Ben Bernanke vs. Greenspan
Definite a different style... which may be a good thing.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.

Did you even look at the date ?

Posted: December 10, 2006
5:38 p.m. Eastern

WTF ?

-t
But that was my point. They and 20 or 30 other news services, have been
issuing warnings of this for years now. That date is just proof of claim is
all.

Here's their story on today's mess: WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets

--
But hey, what's wrong with WND?
     
 (op)
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:40 PM
 
Bernanke making an exit?

Heard it this morning on CNBC as a matter-of-fact.

I'm not sure that it's a good idea simply because Bernanke making ANY exit in any fashion is probably going to be interpreted as a weakness - which the market doesn't need right now.

The thing is, Bernanke is the one who kept saying, ad nauseam, that the subprime meltdown was "contained." Boy, was he wrong. Citigroup posting their worst losses, Merrill Lynch, and today Bank of America, he's way off.

Here are his words:

Even as the housing industry stumbles through its correction, major financial institutions should be spared. “Importantly, we see no serious broader spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market; troubled lenders, for the most part, have not been institutions with federally insured deposits,” Bernanke said.
That was last May.

Gold sure is doing well right now, I'll say that.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:44 PM
 
Originally Posted by Tesselator View Post
But that was my point. They and 20 or 30 other news services, have been
issuing warnings of this for years now. That date is just proof of claim is
all.

Here's their story on today's mess: WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets

--
But hey, what's wrong with WND?
Yes, please post more stuff from sources like that.

Maybe something from the Financial Weekly World News

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.
Dude, the dollar has been collapsing for a while now, and will continue to. Not long until it's just the American Peso.
The era of anthropomorphizing hardware is over.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:57 PM
 
Huh? Sources like what? Clue a brutha in will ya?
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 02:58 PM
 
I'm so insanely happy now, picked up 150 shares of AAPL at 150.74. It's like finding money on the sidewalk!
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:00 PM
 
Originally Posted by Don Pickett View Post
Dude, the dollar has been collapsing for a while now, and will continue to. Not long until it's just the American Peso.
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization.

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization.

-t
Really? When was the last time USD had a sustained period of valuation against foreign currencies?
The era of anthropomorphizing hardware is over.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization.

-t
With the current US Dollar worth about two cents of it's 1918 former self (when it was
bamboozled off it's hard metal backing) wouldn't you call that an "ongoing collapse"?

Admittedly some estimates put it at nearly four cents.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Tesselator View Post
With the current US Dollar worth about two cents of it's 1918 former self (when it was
bamboozled off it's hard metal backing) wouldn't you call that an "ongoing collapse"?

Admittedly some estimates put it at nearly four cents.
You are conflating two things. I don't know whether or not you're doing it purposefully or out of ignorance.

Comparing historical values, especially over almost 100 years, is a useless exercise, as the economic bases of America (and the world) in 1918 and the economic bases of America (and the world) now are so different as to defy categorization. You can only use the most general things as reference, i.e., all speculative bubbles burst, etc. You could've made the argument in August, 1929, and it would have held as much water.

The dollar has lost significant value in the last fie years against the currencies of all our major trading partners, and against the world in general. If you look back 30 years, the long term trend line is steadily down. If you look back five years, the downward slope is increasing. It has lost 1/3 of its value since 2002, and 12.5% in the last year alone. And the reasons for this are basic and deep-seated economic problems in the U.S. and structural problems with our economy. And, if you want a history lesson, look at what happened to the English economy in the years 1875-1914.

Now, you tell me what happens when the dollar is no longer the international reserve currency.

edit: One of the problems with a lack of historical perspective is people expect all crashes to look like the Depression, when stockbrokers were jumping out of windows. They don't.
( Last edited by Don Pickett; Jan 22, 2008 at 03:28 PM. )
The era of anthropomorphizing hardware is over.
     
 
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