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Apple in 2018
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Apr 4, 2008, 03:36 PM
 
Here's a fun Friday time-waster. Guess what Apple's lineup will look like in 10 years. What do you think will be the biggest changes in the world of computing? What will not have changed so much? What will the iPod and iPhone line look like?

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Apr 4, 2008, 03:45 PM
 
That all depends if Steve and Jonathan are still with Apple.

-t
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 03:45 PM
 
Apple will make flying cars.

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Apr 4, 2008, 04:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
Apple will make flying cars.
With no steering wheel and only one button.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 04:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
That all depends if Steve and Jonathan are still with Apple.

-t
I prefer not to think about this horrible inevitability.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 04:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by ::maroma:: View Post
I prefer not to think about this horrible inevitability.
Why would it be "horrible?"

Steve Jobs is going to hand-pick his successor. He wouldn't choose someone that wouldn't continue his legacy.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 04:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by Person Man View Post
Why would it be "horrible?"

Steve Jobs is going to hand-pick his successor. He wouldn't choose someone that wouldn't continue his legacy.
What if there is no suitable candidate, and Steve suddenly gets really sick ?

The point is, Apple's strength is also a big weakness: it hinges more or less on two brilliant people.
You can't easily replace brilliant people like that. A Steve Jobs person in the computer industry is a once in a lifetime event.

-t
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 05:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by wallinbl View Post
With no steering wheel and only one button.
Perhaps with a one finger click-steering-wheel?
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 05:26 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
What if there is no suitable candidate, and Steve suddenly gets really sick ?
My guess is that there's already a successor picked by Jobs. He probably has a few people chosen, in case anything happens to his first pick.

After the pancreatic cancer scare, he'd be foolish not to have someone already chosen. I wouldn't put it past Jobs to only reveal it after he'd died though, via a will if he doesn't get to choose for himself when to step down.

The point is, Apple's strength is also a big weakness: it hinges more or less on two brilliant people.
You can't easily replace brilliant people like that. A Steve Jobs person in the computer industry is a once in a lifetime event.
Perhaps, but whomever is picked by Jobs will not lead the company astray. Perhaps the next CEO will take Apple in great directions Jobs never imagined. Perhaps not.

But, I do believe he's picked a successor. Jobs doesn't strike me as someone who'd overlook a detail like that. Even if he did delay treatment for his cancer for nine months.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 07:06 PM
 
A few obvious things:
1) All the notebooks will have a MacBook Air size form factor.
2) 8 GB of RAM standard on pretty much everything, 16 GB on the Mac Pro.
3) Final Cut Studio 4.
4) MacBook Air becomes a tablet of sorts with multi touch.
5) iPhones on any network.
6) Three computer lines: iMac, MacBook, Mac Pro.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 08:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by imitchellg5 View Post
2) 8 GB of RAM standard on pretty much everything, 16 GB on the Mac Pro.
10 years from now? No. It'll be more like 8 TB of RAM standard on everything and 16 TB on the Mac Pro.
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 08:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by imitchellg5 View Post
A few obvious things:
1) All the notebooks will have a MacBook Air size form factor.
2) 8 GB of RAM standard on pretty much everything, 16 GB on the Mac Pro.
3) Final Cut Studio 4.
4) MacBook Air becomes a tablet of sorts with multi touch.
5) iPhones on any network.
6) Three computer lines: iMac, MacBook, Mac Pro.
Wow, that was quite unimaginative. 8GB ? LOLZ. We'll have that in 2011.
THREE ??? computer lines ? Why so many steps back ?

-t
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 10:25 PM
 
This is a nice little site, although it only works backwards 10 years....what's up with that?
1st site listed is of some interest.

It's Knuttz - Famous sites through the years
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 10:51 PM
 
The future is sort of strange when you think about it. In 1950, we thought by the year 2000 we would have flying spaceships in every garage. Instead, we just have more efficient and better running cars of the same type we had in 1950, plus a few extra features.

In 10 years, I bet we have the same type of computers, just with a few more features (iris scanners to log in), more processing power but programs that continue to hog our resources just like we have today. In short, other than a few shape, color, and name changes, computers will look much like what we have now.

How depressing.

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Apr 4, 2008, 11:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by alligator View Post
The future is sort of strange when you think about it. In 1950, we thought by the year 2000 we would have flying spaceships in every garage. Instead, we just have more efficient and better running cars of the same type we had in 1950, plus a few extra features.
Bad example. And bad generalization.

Cars (as a vehicle of transportation) have indeed not developed as much as we might have thought. But to use this as an analogy to computers is wrong.

If you look at what they thought computers would be like in 2000, you'll find that many developments in computer technology were utterly underestimated.

In other areas of technology, you will also find examples of under- AND overestimation of future developments. E.g. , who would have thought that we'd be cloning animals by now, playing God and what not.

-t
     
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Apr 4, 2008, 11:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by alligator View Post
In 10 years, I bet we have the same type of computers, just with a few more features (iris scanners to log in), more processing power but programs that continue to hog our resources just like we have today. In short, other than a few shape, color, and name changes, computers will look much like what we have now.
Really? I completely disagree.

Used the iPhone? Multi-touch is coming to macs within 5 years... in 10 it'll most likely be standard. But even if multi touch doesn't turn out to be "the way of the future" something else surely will. You really think people will be using a standard mouse and keyboard 10 years from now? Even if the mouse/keyboard are advanced and all that, I think there will be a MAJOR shift in computing within 10 years.

Think of the iPod even 5 years ago. If memory serves me right, we were on the 2nd or 3rd gen iPods. Monochrome screens. It could play music. And that's it.

Compared to iPod touch/iPhone: Virtually flipping through color album covers, etc. etc. etc. I mean I think we are all taking it for granted... think of how major a thing this new platform is. It is a complete game changer in the computing world. And I think the iPhone/iPod touch platform will grow and grow, and eventually become a viable replacement for a laptop.

So, long story short, 10 years from now, I think we'll laugh at the idea of a notebook computer and how big and chunky they were. Heck, I even picked up my TWO YEAR old iBook today and thought, "man, this thing was huge" compared to my macbook. I remember thinking how great the iBook was, as it was smaller than my previous (non-Apple) notebook.


Originally Posted by imitchellg5 View Post
A few obvious things:
1) All the notebooks will have a MacBook Air size form factor.
2) 8 GB of RAM standard on pretty much everything, 16 GB on the Mac Pro.
3) Final Cut Studio 4.
4) MacBook Air becomes a tablet of sorts with multi touch.
5) iPhones on any network.
6) Three computer lines: iMac, MacBook, Mac Pro.
...If that's where Apple is in 10 years then we're all in trouble. Your predictions sound MUCH more like ~3 years in the future, not 10.

And to finish answering the original question: I don't think there will be an "iPod" 10 years from now as we know it today. I doubt they would change the name because of its popularity, but iPod will grow into MUCH MUCH more than just a music player. This reverts back to what I was saying before, how the iPod (touch)/iPhone lines are really going to take off and morph the whole industry. They might keep around something like the iPod shuffle (with 128gb of flash!?), but the iPod, as we know it (dedicated music/movie player), is as good as dead.
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 01:56 AM
 
I agree. I think the iPhone and devices like the iPhone will dominate the computing world. People will carry their PC in their pocket. Just walk up to a monitor and keyboard and they will instantly sync with your iPhone. It will be powerful enough to run just about any app, and will be able to stream movies, TV, radio and whatever instantly and on demand. Video phone calls will of course also be on every iPhone. Storage will not be an issue, because we will all have access to massive amounts of online storage.

I think you are right about laptops going away. You will see iPhone like devices, and people who require more will simple carry a portable screen and keyboard with them to sync up to the iPhone. I also think we'll see a big bump in screen resolution at some point.

As for desktops, they will start to become less and less popular. It might take a little more then 10 years, but I don't think our kids will be bothering with things like desktop computers. Everything will be integrated into a big system that links all of the televisions and devices in your house to a big network. Every device you turn on would be linked back to some sort of massive system that would be controlling everything. If someone came over, they would be able to just call up their personal files by logging into their system from your house. You would see the info on a TV screen, but access it with a wireless keyboard or the touchscreen on your iPhone. Or maybe you would have a laptop like device that would also tap into this network. The main thing is that you would not have multiple computers, or TVs or game systems or DVR or anything like that. You would have one box and multiple access points. A desktop computer would just be a screen, keyboard and mouse dialed into your main box. Your TV would be the same, as would your iPhone, laptop and everything else. I think this is more then 10 years off, but we will definitely be seeing it starting in 10 years.

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Apr 5, 2008, 02:19 AM
 
Originally Posted by Nodnarb View Post
...If that's where Apple is in 10 years then we're all in trouble. Your predictions sound MUCH more like ~3 years in the future, not 10.

And to finish answering the original question: I don't think there will be an "iPod" 10 years from now as we know it today. I doubt they would change the name because of its popularity, but iPod will grow into MUCH MUCH more than just a music player. This reverts back to what I was saying before, how the iPod (touch)/iPhone lines are really going to take off and morph the whole industry. They might keep around something like the iPod shuffle (with 128gb of flash!?), but the iPod, as we know it (dedicated music/movie player), is as good as dead.
Hmmm. If you look at how the industry has changed over the two years, not much has really happened. Computers have basically become more streamlined, but nothing incredible and amazing has happened. Heck, I'm writing this from a 1998 PowerBook G3. While it may only have a 466 MHz processor (266 standard) it still can do pretty much everything that most people need in a computer. I can wirelessly print, wirelessly browse the web, email, etc. I think the industry has somewhat slowed down. If you look at a Mac from 1990 and compare it to one from 1998, there were a lot of changes. If you look at a Mac from 1998, not a whole lot has changed besides Intel processors. Specifications have just increased a bit. Now, if and when multi touch makes it on a Mac, I think the industry will be renewed. Nobody has been able to replicate mutli touch very well on even a phone, but Apple is using it on notebooks already and nobody else can.
I also think that we may see the demise of the Apple desktop, besides maybe a Mac Pro. If you look at Apple sales figures, the notebooks handily outsell desktops. It doesn't seem to far fetched that Apple will eventually stop making desktops at all. Sometimes I feel even now that they just offer an iMac to have it there.
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 04:29 AM
 
At the same time though, dedicated desktops will always have their place.
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 04:40 AM
 
Originally Posted by imitchellg5 View Post
Hmmm. If you look at how the industry has changed over the two years, not much has really happened. Computers have basically become more streamlined, but nothing incredible and amazing has happened.
Your view is too narrow. Don't focus just on hardware, especially not with Apple.

Compare 1998 Mac OS 8.1 with 2008 Mc OS X 10.5
Not much happened ?

Compare 1998 cell phone with 2008 iPhone.
Not much happened ?

Compare 1998 disc or MD player with 2008 iPod.
Not much happened ?

-t
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 04:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by imitchellg5 View Post
It doesn't seem to far fetched that Apple will eventually stop making desktops at all. Sometimes I feel even now that they just offer an iMac to have it there.
Oh yes it does. Every stupid technology analyst makes this dumb prediction, but it will not happen anytime soon.

Why ?

Because it will ALWAYS be cheaper to build a computer in a big box rather than in a small portable design. ALWAYS.

And there will ALWAYS be people who are not willing to spend the extra $$$ for a portable design. ALWAYS.

The desktop is here to stay for much longer than we think. In what form factor and what capacity, that remains to be seen.

-t
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 06:09 AM
 
Well, predictions are really tough. Obviously we can't say never, we just don't know, but by 2018, let me take a stab...

Apple TV... just the way we compute. Skype already is ported on it. Apple is working on the iChat thing. Sooner, rather than later, the "Demolition Man" style interaction with a large Flat Panel display in our living room or office will be the norm. We will video chat with our friends and associates, we will surf the web more so on this (at home).

The iMac... Warped screen, curved around you for a panoramic view. You will be able to use hand gestures and a keyboard/mouse. 3D and multi-touch become "one", and Ink takes off: less and less paper. All static memory (flash derivative). Panoramic view allows an array of windows to be open at one time, where you can still focus on the center screen.

MacBook: Well, the Apple Tablet really takes off in the next two years, and people everywhere realize how ridiculous it is to lug around what is really supposed to be a portable desktop. With the tablet, we can bring our comptuer with us to the lobby, or meeting, get people to digitally sign forms, etc. etc. So the laptop, if anything, will be a hybrid tablet. By 2018, flexible LCDs have taken hold, and Apple may offer the flexible screen laptop option.

iTunes: Of course, everything is digital. iTunes is completely 3D. You shop like you would a real store, browsing shelves, etc. Music, TV shows, Movies, Video Games, etc.

iPhone: 3D interface, oodles of storage, everything wireless. Apple may offer some flexible phone model, like the Nokia prototype floating around YouTube.
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 10:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Oh yes it does. Every stupid technology analyst makes this dumb prediction, but it will not happen anytime soon.

Why ?

Because it will ALWAYS be cheaper to build a computer in a big box rather than in a small portable design. ALWAYS.

And there will ALWAYS be people who are not willing to spend the extra $$$ for a portable design. ALWAYS.

The desktop is here to stay for much longer than we think. In what form factor and what capacity, that remains to be seen.

-t
That's what Dell is for. I didn't say that we'll see the total destruction of the desktop, because I think that companies like Dell and HP will always be around and always be selling desktops at least commercially. And Apple only builds one computer in a big box, the Mac Pro which is what I think will always be around. As for cost, maybe, maybe not. Sure it might be more expensive to build a laptop and they might cost a bit more, but most people don't seem to care a ton. If laptops were Apple's main product production costs would go down.
     
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Apr 5, 2008, 10:58 AM
 
If we're taking 10 year steps, then here's have Macs have moved on. Very general categorisation here...

Home computer
1988 Macintosh Classic SE 9" Screen
1998 iMac G3 15" screen
2008 iMac Intel Dual Core 24" screen

Pro computer
1988 Macintosh II
1998 PowerMac G3 (beige box)
2008 Mac Pro Intel 8 Core

Portable/Laptop computer
1989 Macintosh Portable
1998 Powerbook G3
2008 MacBook Air (Not using Macbook or MBP here because they are essentially old designs now).

Handhelds didn't exist 'til 1993 so

1993 Newton
1998 eMate and Newton 2000
2008 iPhone

My guesses -

In terms of power the 2018 basic macs will kill todays maxed out Mac Pro stone dead. That is if home computers as we know them even exist. 2018 Macs could be a set top box a la Apple TV, but a home server sending out to your handheld or slate portable, wherever you are (Wimax range is measured in miles, not feet, and Wimax is available now, gawd knows what the range and speed will be in 10 years!).

Looks and interface - Ask Jeff Han, or watch some sci fi films. Multi touch, MS Surface etc are the first baby steps in interfaces and design.

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