[turtle777]

Royal Bank of Scotland warning:
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert - Telegraph

"The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks."

Barclay's warning:
Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles - Telegraph

"Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm..."
"They will have to slam on the brakes. There is going to be a deep global recession over the next three years as policy-makers try to get inflation back in the box."

When is the last time that you heard banks publish such pessimistic warnings, basically telling their clients to get the **** out of the stock market ?

Even if it doesn't come as bad, it shows that the worldwide economy is in more trouble than many would like to admit.

-t

[el chupacabra]

The stock market should of crashed months ago. The whole economy is going t down the sewer.
problem is the US doesn't do anything anymore. everythings been outsourced. they say we are a nation of services...
Well services are usually considered luxury items so as things get worse people will purchase less. the way i see it our main service is credit /debt/banking anyway....worthless.

Things have gotten so bad we cant manufacture to save ourselves.
Take it from an outsourcer such as myself.. I dont outsource to china because it's cheaper I do it because the services I need are no longer available in the united states.

Oil is going to hurt us too, we aren't like other countries who can handle high gas prices because most of them use public transportation, a bike, or walk. Our towns are spread out, we have no public transportation and we will not adapt quickly.

Our government allowed banking companies to commit criminal activities and their solution to the mess is infuse them with free money; hand us the inflation tax.... this wont solve anything. they can fart all they want but eventually they're going to have to take a ****.

[Quantum Trader]

'The Quantum theory of modern market dynamics'

Have you heard of the theory? Well be very afraid if you are holding any stocks, the theory suggests that as of the close of the Dow Jones on Friday 27th June 2008 there is a 90% chance that the Dow will crash on Monday the 30th June 2008. This theory has made me a fortune over the years as it is the only theory which I know of that can acurately predict such events. Good luck and good trading.

[imitchellg5]

I don't know if it will crash. It's been bad, but it seems whenever it has bad days like over the last week, it always springs back up, just not to the previous level. That being said, there are a lot of parallels between today's market and the stock market of June 1930.

[rozwado1]

Just buy some puts on the S&P and ride it down. Cash in some of your successful longs that you've been holding, make some money to invest and wait for the drop. If you look at a 1 year S&P, it looks like there will be support around 1225 (downtrend line), but I'm not sure if I believe that technical junk.

People have been crowding the copper trade, with everybody I know in FCX - so I think that's getting sketchy. Maybe with the current state of affairs, a call spread on the GLD is worth a look.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

'The Quantum theory of modern market dynamics'

Have you heard of the theory? Well be very afraid if you are holding any stocks, the theory suggests that as of the close of the Dow Jones on Friday 27th June 2008 there is a 90% chance that the Dow will crash on Monday the 30th June 2008. This theory has made me a fortune over the years as it is the only theory which I know of that can acurately predict such events. Good luck and good trading.

Heh. Gotta love the fear mongers (new member, first post) trying to use the net to manipulate the market. Same thing happens on the stock forums all the time.

[64stang06]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

'The Quantum theory of modern market dynamics'

Have you heard of the theory? Well be very afraid if you are holding any stocks, the theory suggests that as of the close of the Dow Jones on Friday 27th June 2008 there is a 90% chance that the Dow will crash on Monday the 30th June 2008. This theory has made me a fortune over the years as it is the only theory which I know of that can acurately predict such events. Good luck and good trading.

Maybe your fortune that was made can be used to get you a life, and maybe a woman(man)?

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Heh. Gotta love the fear mongers (new member, first post) trying to use the net to manipulate the market. Same thing happens on the stock forums all the time.

Hi Eug
I can understand your scepticism, but please, I am not under any illusion that my post may influence a market the size of the Dow Jones. It is not my wish that the theory suggests such a scenario. Unfortunately maybe, it has on other occasion’s. I can however tell you, that for this suggestion to be correct, the overnight futures on the Dow would need to indicate an opening price of around -300 points on Monday 30th June 2008. I hope you do not mind if I use this reply to answer other welcome interest in my post.

[turtle777]

Quantum Trader,

Why don't you explain your theory a bit, and what leads you to the conclusion ?

-t

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Quantum Trader,

Why don't you explain your theory a bit, and what leads you to the conclusion ?

-t

Hi Turtle777

Thank you for your interest.

The Quantum Theory of modern market dynamics is a broadly based theory that is designed to predict minor and major tops or bottoms to all markets which have underlying futures. The Theory uses a complex set of measurements along side of the more conventional technical indicators and takes into account the relevant market’s leveraged positioning, it uses all this information to determine whether a top or bottom is due, if so it then finally looks for its own unique indicator called a Quantum Jump which always occurs the moment a top or bottom is in place. The Theory can also then be used to accurately trade the resulting corrections. In the case of the current Dow Jones a Quantum Jump occurred which indicated a Major top on the 11th October 2007. The initial reaction to this and all Major tops is for the market to form a pattern called a Quantum Oscillation which is further defined by a set of intricate measurements, these measurements are then used to define Quantum Trigger Points which if broken in the case of a Major top will almost certainly result in a market crash scenario, one of these Trigger Points was clearly breached on Thursday 26th June 2008.

-qt

[Visnaut]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

these measurements are then used to define Quantum Trigger Points which if broken in the case of a Major top will almost certainly result in a market crash scenario

Oh boy!

We can only hope Dow Jones's next Quantum Jump will be the jump home.

All jokes aside, your theory does sound interesting.

[King Bob On The Cob]

Last thing we need is a market crash again...

High fuel prices, low food production... Egads...

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

Hi Turtle777

Thank you for your interest.

The Quantum Theory of modern market dynamics is a broadly based theory that is designed to predict minor and major tops or bottoms to all markets which have underlying futures.

-qt

Is there a software that does that ?

Or is there a web site / subscription service that informs about this ?

-t

[Kerrigan]

I think we will be seeing stagflation in the next quarter as business cycles slow down worldwide and central banks hesitate to raise interest rates. I'm young so I don't have a large portfolio but I've moved everything out of stocks into savings and anticipate a move into treasury bonds if coupon yields improve.

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Update

As of the opening on the Dow Jones 30/6/08 the final part of the theory was not fulfilled, i.e. the overnight futures needed to indicate an opening of around minus 300 points to bring the crash scenario to a 100% probability. However the scenario still holds a 90% probability whilst the Dow trades below Thursdays Trigger Point level of 11800. Whilst the Dow trades below this level the overnight futures price on each opening day holds the key to the timing of this event. Calling the actual day before hand of a crash scenario (particularly on world stock markets) as indicated by a Trigger Point breach is always at my own peril.

-qt

[turtle777]

So, we just dodged the bullet ?

That's how I have been feeling about the markets for the past 6 months

-t

[Uncle Doof]

No crash. Slow slide instead.

Unless you vote the wrong guy in in November, in which case your economy's going to go tits-up real quick.

[turtle777]

Doofy, is this you ?

-t

[Uncle Doof]

No Turty, that was you. This is me.




(Explanation here.)

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Uncle Doof 

No Turty, that was you. This is me.

Oh, I thought I was me

-t

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Is there a software that does that ?

Or is there a web site / subscription service that informs about this ?

-t

Hi Turtle777

I have been unable to produce software on this theory for numerus reasons, mainly based on the broadness of the indicators as some are fundamental. The theory has taken 25 years of trading experience, 5 years to produce and a further 5 years of practical application. In the last 3 years of practical application it has been 100% faithful. Over the last 8 months it has made only two calls, which were the Canadian Dollar top just short of 110.00 and Silver at 21.50. Currently it is tracking the Aussie and Euro currencies, Oil, Dow Jones and ASX200. The next 5 trading sessions are critical for its credibility, now that the Dow call has been made. The Dow call has been extremely stressful over the past week for two reasons; one is that its Quantum Oscillation period has lasted for longer than the theory suggests, secondly is the difficulty measuring this markets leveraged positioning, the theory suggests that there is a significant amount of stressed leverage out there, particularly at the Dows current level, however to date these positions have been maintained, I think I have the reason for this anomaly, but I prefer to observe the market for a few more days before I head down that path, because if this reason proves to be correct we are looking at a much more serious situation than anyone could possibly imagine. It is my intention to start a Blog with a free subscription service; I am not interested in making money from subscribers as I am comfortable in the theories ability to do that.

-qt

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by Uncle Doof 

No crash. Slow slide instead.

Unless you vote the wrong guy in in November, in which case your economy's going to go tits-up real quick.

Hi Uncle Doof

The Quantum Theory of Modern Market Dynamics states that all markets with underlying futures must, after establishing a major or minor top at some point (Quantum Trigger Point) experience a brutal period of capitulation. It refuses to accept a slow and orderly unwinding of leveraged positions. However I think I have a plausible reason why the market has so far been able resist this capitulation, which would be impossible to predict using any theory, I will explain this reason on Monday next week if the crash scenario has not materialised.

-qt

[flabasha]

If you're diversified as you should be (1/2 to 2/3 in savings, rest in mixture of small and large cap stocks) and looking long term, there's actually nothing too wrong with a "crash" (except for the fortunes of those leveraged badly).

Unless one is predicting the imminent demise of the United States, the stock market will eventually (within three to four years) be up to new highs again, and a crash just allows you to buy in cheap, then watch with a grin as your money doubles over time.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by flabasha 

Unless one is predicting the imminent demise of the United States, the stock market will eventually (within three to four years) be up to new highs again, and a crash just allows you to buy in cheap, then watch with a grin as your money doubles over time.

Indeed. I don't retire for at least 28 more years, so my 401(k) is heavy in stocks. Only 5% in bonds, and none in cash. Other than scheduled rebalancing, I'm not touching it. I can't touch the money right now anyway, so I don't really care too much what it looks like right now. My only regret is that I'll be at the maximum contribution for the year in July, and I won't be able to pick up the good deals once the market hits rock bottom in a few months (give or take a few), unless I invest outside my 401(k).

I also have roughly 12 months' worth of savings readily available if anything really bad should happen.

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Update

Again today as of the opening on the Dow Jones 1/7/08 the final part of the theory was not fulfilled, however today the London FTSE also breached its trigger point and fell sharply, the Australian ASX200 is only 50 points away from its trigger point being breached, the theory now suggests that a global stock market crash is imminent over the next few trading sessions.

-qt

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

Theory Update

Again today as of the opening on the Dow Jones 1/7/08 the final part of the theory was not fulfilled, however today the London FTSE also breached its trigger point and fell sharply, the Australian ASX200 is only 50 points away from its trigger point being breached, the theory now suggests that a global stock market crash is imminent over the next few trading sessions.

-qt

lol

[Chuckit]

I have a theory that the "quantum theory" hasn't really done much to earn any credibility here.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Perhaps if they hired Scott Bakula to be their spokesman, that would help?

[olePigeon]

olePigeon's Theory: The value of stock is directly proportional to the perceived value of the company by its investors.

Let's see how it plays out.

[64stang06]

Originally Posted by Quantum Trader 

Theory Update

Again today as of the opening on the Dow Jones 1/7/08 the final part of the theory was not fulfilled, however today the London FTSE also breached its trigger point and fell sharply, the Australian ASX200 is only 50 points away from its trigger point being breached, the theory now suggests that a global stock market crash is imminent over the next few trading sessions.

-qt

Surprise there.

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Update

Sadly it appears that the central banks liquidity pumping has been used as play money by world financial institutions to maintain stressed leveraged stock market positions. It does not take much of an imagination to workout the dire consequences to these actions on central bank credibility and financial institutions viability should a world stock market crash occur as imminently suggested. This latest revelation has made it difficult for the theory to analyse the exact amount of these stressed leveraged positions, an important part of the theories exactitude, nevertheless with its now overwhelming esoteric indicators, the theory is comfortable with the crash scenario over the next few trading sessions.

-qt

[torsoboy]

Quantum Trader: What is considered a "crash"? Lose 800 points in a day? Lose 1000?

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

Quantum Trader: What is considered a "crash"? Lose 800 points in a day? Lose 1000?

Give it up. He's rapidly starting to lose credibility.

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

Quantum Trader: What is considered a "crash"? Lose 800 points in a day? Lose 1000?

Hi Torsoboy

Thank you for your interest, when the Theory suggests such calamities, it is never a popular thing; it was much more enjoyable over the past few years when it was suggesting large upward swings after each correction. However to answer your question, the Theory defines a stock market crash scenario as a one day downward movement of at least 10%.

-qt

[Quantum Trader]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

Quantum Trader: What is considered a "crash"? Lose 800 points in a day? Lose 1000?

Hi Torsoboy

Thank you for your interest, when the Theory suggests such calamities, it is never a popular thing; it was much more enjoyable over the past few years when it was suggesting large upward swings after each correction. However to answer your question, the Theory defines a stock market crash scenario as a one day downward movement of at least 10%.

-qt

[turtle777]

Well, 10% drop in a day, I can see that happening in the current environment.

-t

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Alert

Last night on the Dow financial stocks appeared to establish a short term bottom; this has now been duplicated on ASX200 today. In this scenario The Quantum Theory of Modern Market Dynamics reclassifies recent Quantum Trigger Point breaches into Quantum Flash Overs; this means that profits should now be taken on all short positions and long positions established in anticipation of a short term correction for financial stocks in a bear market. This is the nature of modern markets which this dynamic theory is able to detect the moment these changes occur, anyone following the theory should now be deep in profit on their short positions.

-qt

[Eug]

Yesterday on the NASDAQ, tech stocks appeared to break through a short term resistance level, and this has now been duplicated on other indices. In this scenario the EW Theory of 21st Century Market Directionalism reclassifies Directional resistance levels into base thresholds. This means that an overweight position should be taken in specific Directional tech stocks, for the long term in a marsupialized market. This is the nature of modern warm-blooded summer markets, which this moon-adjusted theory is able to model accurately. Anyone following this theory should now be deep in marsupialized profit, which can be reinvested in reptilian blue-water shoreline real estate.

[hyteckit]

According to the hyteckit index, the Dow will drop below 10,500 points this summer due to high crude oil prices and the overall instability of the global market. Using complex econometrics and statistical analysis, the hyteckit index forecast a long and deep recession. With the credit crisis, housing market crisis, and global banking crisis compounded with increasing inflation and decreasing consumer confidence, the recover will be very slow. It would be no surprise to me if the Dow dips below 10,000 points this year or early next year.

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Update

Central Bank Liquidity pumping has enabled world financial institutions to so far resist leveraged stress caused by the recent slow motion meltdown on world stock markets. It is not clear whether this situation will last, however for the time being all of the Quantum Theories esoteric indicators have turned on the Dow, FTSE and ASX200, indicating a sharp bear market reversal is possible. It is unclear whether or not a Major or Minor Bottom is in place. However at this stage the theory classifies it as a Minor short term bottom within a bear market. It will now dynamically monitor this correction looking for a re-entry back into the Quantum Oscillation Field, this re-entry is critical for a short term bottom to be in place; at that stage it will be able to determine the exact nature of this correction or market reversal.

-qt

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Yesterday on the NASDAQ, tech stocks appeared to break through a short term resistance level, and this has now been duplicated on other indices. In this scenario the EW Theory of 21st Century Market Directionalism reclassifies Directional resistance levels into base thresholds. This means that an overweight position should be taken in specific Directional tech stocks, for the long term in a marsupialized market. This is the nature of modern warm-blooded summer markets, which this moon-adjusted theory is able to model accurately. Anyone following this theory should now be deep in marsupialized profit, which can be reinvested in reptilian blue-water shoreline real estate.

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

According to the hyteckit index, the Dow will drop below 10,500 points this summer due to high crude oil prices and the overall instability of the global market. Using complex econometrics and statistical analysis, the hyteckit index forecast a long and deep recession. With the credit crisis, housing market crisis, and global banking crisis compounded with increasing inflation and decreasing consumer confidence, the recover will be very slow. It would be no surprise to me if the Dow dips below 10,000 points this year or early next year.

Both of these are great! If I had more time I'd come up with my own "theory" as well.

[turtle777]

Well, QT, keep entertaining us

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Give it up. He's rapidly starting to lose credibility.

Credibility?



Are we sure his account isn't just a joke account?

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Credibility?

Point taken.

Are we sure his account isn't just a joke account?[/QUOTE]

Could be. But I think most regulars with joke accounts would have given up a few posts earlier.

[hyteckit]

Well, I ain't joking. Dow will dip under 10,500 during the summer.

[Uncle Doof]

I ain't joking either. Vote Obama in and your inflation is gonna go through the roof and collapse your economy. See "Stop Tax Haven Abuse" bill for details.

[Eug]

I ain't joking either.

Invest in directional stocks in this marsupialized market, and you'll be able to reap a nice profit that you can then turn into blue-water shoreline real estate in 2009. ;)

[turtle777]

I ain't joking.

Paypal me all your money, I can guarantee eleventy billion % return

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Dow will dip under 10,500 during the summer.

This, I believe will happen too. But I don't believe in any theories that say, they predict "a 90% chance of a crash tomorrow," and keep repeating that every single day that the crash doesn't happen. Which is basically what this guy keeps saying. Every day, "market's gonna crash tomorrow." Tomorrow comes. No crash. "Well, it'll crash tomorrow, then." No crash tomorrow. Wash, rinse, and repeat ad nauseam.

[Quantum Trader]

Theory Update

The overnight short term bottom in a bear market was exactly that, the market failed on its initial re-entry back into the Quantum Oscillation Field. This was an extremely dire indicator. The ability of world financial institutions to maintain stressed leveraged positions will now be severely tested as all crash scenario indicators except the overnight futures price indicator are still in place for a global stock market crash over the next few trading sessions. Whilst the Dow continues to trade below its Quantum Oscillation Field there is a 90% chance of a crash scenario each day as 9 out of the 10 major indicators of this theory are in place. The overnight Dow futures need to indicate an opening price of around minus 300 points to trigger off this crash scenario, this is still the final indicator of the theory and holds the key to the exact timing of this event.

-qt