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Doc HM · Mar 9, 2011, 02:34 AM

Say you are having a dream. And in that dream you enter the lottery, and scoop the jackpot. When you wake up you remember the numbers you used clearly.

I was thinking, would you then go down to the store and buy a ticket using those numbers.

I was discussing this with Mrs DHM and said I would not. She agreed that the idea of a dream predicting a win was stupid but she thought she would probably buy a ticket anyway on the basis of "what if", while I said No.

Which way would you go?

mattyb · Mar 9, 2011, 02:58 AM

Whats a lottery ticket, £2? Why not?

Laminar · Mar 9, 2011, 03:29 AM

Sure.

design219 · Mar 9, 2011, 06:45 AM

If you look at the lottery as entertainment, there is nothing wrong with buying a ticket now and then. If you spend every extra dollar in expectation of getting rich on the lottery, you have a problem.

Lighten up, buy a ticket.

Big Mac · Mar 9, 2011, 07:06 AM

I absolutely would buy a ticket in that scenario. I usually don't dream of winning the lottery, and even then it would be that much more remarkable if I actually remembered the numbers from the winning ticket. Plus, I've read that some jackpot winners claim the numbers they played came to them in a dream.

I agree with design's view on buying lottery tickets occasionally. I'll buy every now and then when the jackpot has rolled over a number of times.

Doc HM · Mar 9, 2011, 07:19 AM

Well I really don't have any issue with buying a ticket per se, and I do on occasion do just this. I fully realise the odds are stupid bad but my daughters enjoy it so it's fine. It is absolutley just entertainment.

However, My take is that to but a ticket based on numbers that came to me in a dream goes so much against my rational beliefs that it feels too much like betraying my fundamental values.

I would happily buy a ticket with different numbers although I would probably hesitate to even buy a ticket on the week that I had had the dream.

Big Mac · Mar 9, 2011, 07:49 AM

That sounds somewhat contradictory. You already know that it's for entertainment because the chance of winning is so low, but on principle you wouldn't buy a ticket based on numbers that came to you in a dream? If your system of behavior is always and at all times rational, then I'd argue that you shouldn't be buying tickets at all since rationally you know you're basically guaranteed to lose.

design219 · Mar 9, 2011, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by Doc HM

My take is that to but a ticket based on numbers that came to me in a dream goes so much against my rational beliefs that it feels too much like betraying my fundamental values.

Well, this is your chance to bolster your fundamental beliefs. Buy a ticket and lose... you win.

The Final Dakar · Mar 9, 2011, 09:42 AM

If you have the motivation (and the complete memory) totally worth a shot. That's a double-win if you hit.

ort888 · Mar 9, 2011, 10:14 AM

I've bought 2 or 3 lottery tickets in my entire life, but if I had a crystal clear recollection of the numbers used I just might have to.

I'm not a spiritual guy, but meh, you know. Why not.

Can I also add that I hate the lotto? What a hot load of crap. The average American spends something like $500 a year on lotto tickets. That's just pure insanity. I bet that if you take out all the people who don't play the lotto, and people who spend less then $20 a year... your average regular lotto player probably spends thousands of dollars a year on lotto tickets... and these are most likely the very people who really should NOT be spending money on things like lottery tickets. The lottery really is just a scam that targets poor stupid people.

The only thing worse then the lottery is rent-to-own and check cashing places. I know people are free to make their own decisions with their money, but the thought of people giving these legalized criminal organizations their money just makes my skin crawl.

I see commercials all the time for rent-to-own TVs. They have a no-name crappy ass 40" FLAT! screen TV (worth probably $500 tops) for just $27.99 per week!!!! (104 total payments $2,900 total)

The Final Dakar · Mar 9, 2011, 10:21 AM

...and now I'm depressed.

turtle777 · Mar 9, 2011, 10:28 AM

Originally Posted by ort888

I see commercials all the time for rent-to-own TVs. They have a no-name crappy ass 40" FLAT! screen TV (worth probably $500 tops) for just $27.99 per week!!!! (104 total payments $2,900 total)

Bwahaha. Some people just can't be helped.

-t

The Final Dakar · Mar 9, 2011, 10:30 AM

Bwahaha! Stupid poor people!

ort888 · Mar 9, 2011, 10:32 AM

YES! Thread successfully derailed!

OAW · Mar 9, 2011, 10:34 AM

Given this scenario I would definitely buy the ticket. If you can afford it. And to ort888's point .... the lottery is a tax on people who don't know any better. Getting a ticket every now and again is one thing if you can spare the money. Gambling away rent or grocery money on lottery tickets is just dumb. There's no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

OAW

-Q- · Mar 9, 2011, 10:57 AM

What's the harm? Of course, if you win you will have to do some serious personal reflection as your current belief system is obviously wrong.

olePigeon · Mar 9, 2011, 11:30 AM

If you win, write a book about it, then sell a million more on Coast to Coast AM. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.

Doc HM · Mar 9, 2011, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by Big Mac

That sounds somewhat contradictory. You already know that it's for entertainment because the chance of winning is so low, but on principle you wouldn't buy a ticket based on numbers that came to you in a dream? If your system of behavior is always and at all times rational, then I'd argue that you shouldn't be buying tickets at all since rationally you know you're basically guaranteed to lose.

Really? It seems consistent. I'm not buying a ticket to win, I'm buying it to keep my two children entertained. And it's cheap at the price! So that's perfectly rational. The only non rational element is introduced by the dream.

I would point out that this is actually a hypothetical situation.

design219 · Mar 9, 2011, 02:15 PM

Originally Posted by doc hm

i would point out that this is actually a hypothetical situation.

what!!! ?

The Final Dakar · Mar 9, 2011, 02:18 PM

Originally Posted by design219

what!!! ?

This whole thread has been a lie. A terrible terrible lie. A nightmare really.

Doc HM · Mar 9, 2011, 02:20 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

This whole thread has been a lie. A terrible terrible lie. A nightmare really.

But I dreamt that I started a thread about it! And now it's come true.

I didn't say in the OP that I had had the dream I did say I had discussed the scenario with my wife.

The Final Dakar · Mar 9, 2011, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Doc HM

But I dreamt that I started a thread about it! And now it's come true.

mattyb · Mar 10, 2011, 04:48 AM

I bet that you're not even a real Doctor.

hayesk · Mar 10, 2011, 09:14 AM

I would, but wouldn't expect the odds to be any better. Lots of people play the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 - others say that's stupid because they're not "random" enough.

andi*pandi · Mar 10, 2011, 09:59 AM

If I could remember the numbers, I would buy a ticket. Win or lose it's a story.

I buy lottery tickets here and there. Not as often as I used to before pay at the pump.

design219 · Mar 10, 2011, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by hayesk

I would, but wouldn't expect the odds to be any better. Lots of people play the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 - others say that's stupid because they're not "random" enough.

Haha, those numbers have exactly the same odd as any other set of numbers.

osiris · Mar 10, 2011, 12:32 PM

I doubt that - you have to take into account the numbers already played and/or past winning numbers.

Is there a statistician in the house?

olePigeon · Mar 10, 2011, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by hayesk

I would, but wouldn't expect the odds to be any better. Lots of people play the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 - others say that's stupid because they're not "random" enough.

Just recently Mega Millions Lottery (multi state lottery here on the west coast) had an incident where 5 of the 6 numbers were exactly the same as the previous drawing.

That's an exceptionally low probability, but it happened. Probably not much less than drawing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. So it could happen.

Big Mac · Mar 10, 2011, 12:42 PM

What about the recent Mega Millions drawing that was nearly identical to the lottery numbers that won on Lost? Talk about coincidence!

Doc HM · Mar 10, 2011, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by olePigeon

Just recently Mega Millions Lottery (multi state lottery here on the west coast) had an incident where 5 of the 6 numbers were exactly the same as the previous drawing.

That's an exceptionally low probability, but it happened. Probably not much less than drawing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. So it could happen.

Surely it's exactly the same probability as any other set of numbers. Probability has no memory.

design219 · Mar 10, 2011, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by osiris

I doubt that - you have to take into account the numbers already played and/or past winning numbers.

Is there a statistician in the house?

I don't follow. Previous winning numbers are not thrown out, so wouldn't any set of numbers have the same odds as any other? I say they would.

reader50 · 08:20 PM

Regarding odds. How are the numbers drawn? It can matter.

Example: A common method is to draw numbered balls out of a bowl. One would assume they start with an equal number of balls for each digit. ie - if there are 90 balls in the bowl, there would be 10 of each digit from 1-9.

As each ball is selected, such as a '5', there will be fewer 5s left in the bowl than other digits. So the first ball to be drawn has a 10/90 (1 in 9) chance of being a '5'. If you did get a 5, the 2nd ball will only have a 9/89 (about 1 in 10) chance of being another '5'.

So winning numbers with repeat digits are less likely than numbers with unique digits. The more repeats, and especially the more repeats of a single digit, the less likely it is to win.

555555 (or other single-digit winner) = one of the 9 least likely numbers.
123456 (or other digit-unique winner) = among the more likely numbers. Still a very large group.

note: if people really are doing '123456' then your odds of winning are better than average. But you might have to split your prize with hundreds of other winners. Choose a different digit-unique number. And only split the prize with me when you win.

ghporter · Mar 10, 2011, 08:15 PM

The probability of any set of numbers being selected should be exactly the same as the probability of any OTHER set of numbers being selected. Lottery agencies go to some serious extremes to make sure that happens-otherwise there would be an identifiable bias and some mathematically inclined lotto player would wind up owning the state.

For example, the Texas Lottery provides all the frequency and distribution data any analyst could want for tracking repetitions. Nothing's shown up. Their Drawing Procedures page provides exacting details on how Texas Lottery drawings are conducted, with emphasis on how randomness of drawn numbers is preserved.

Statistically speaking, any individual number is exactly as likely to be selected as any other individual number, within the limits of time scale and mass measurement capability. This implies, but does not guarantee that any set of numbers is equally likely, but procedures are put in place to make sure that this does happen.

I'd like to see an analysis of which numbers were chosen in what order; that may be interesting, though probably not illuminating. But whatever the specifics, a valid, honest lottery is built to ensure as complete randomness as is possible. And of course, the odds are aimed at the house...

hayesk · Mar 11, 2011, 03:15 PM

Originally Posted by osiris

I doubt that - you have to take into account the numbers already played and/or past winning numbers.

No, you don't. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads nine times, the odds of it being heads on the tenth time is still 1/2, not 9/10.

For clatiry, the odds of playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 are equally likely as another set of numbers in lotteries where there is one of every number, and they are drawn from the same batch.

hayesk · Mar 11, 2011, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by Doc HM

Surely it's exactly the same probability as any other set of numbers. Probability has no memory.

In this context yes, the odds of any two sets coming up the same is the same as playing one set of numbers, but if we're talking a specific set of numbers, then it's lower, the square of the probability of one set winning one draw, to be precise.