[macvillage.net]

I stated the following a few days ago

I'm going to make a prediction here. There will be one last splurge as this summit starts up. Soon after, much will die off. Hamas will break into two factions:

The Palestinian Military (those who have the same beliefs as when it all began, to protect their own people).

The biggot's aka "Reigious zealots".

Tracking down the remaining violent offenders will most likely take years. Similar to the WOT.

From: http://forums.macnn.com/showthread.p...hreadid=162173

Read:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/...ast/index.html

More here discussing how it's forming a gap between the new PM and Hammas:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...lestinians_697
(sure that yahoo link will brake in an hour or so).

Interesting, how it appears to be happening. There is a split between the palestinians.

There is also a distinct split between Israeli hardliners that want the Palestinians exterminated, and those who want to adopt the roadmap and start the move towards peace.

My bet is that there will be some serious violence in the next 2 months as Hammas splits. Perhaps even attacks on Palestinian leadership to attempt to shake the roadmap out of their grasp.

I'm wondering if both sides will work through the opposition on their respective sides and continue... or if the opposition on the respective sides will call off any talks of a treaty, and strap on the bomb belts, turn on the bomb cars.. and fire up the bulldozers and tanks.

[boots]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
My bet is that there will be some serious violence in the next 2 months as Hammas splits. Perhaps even attacks on Palestinian leadership to attempt to shake the roadmap out of their grasp.

If this happens, it will be the worst move Hammas could make. Look at the internal repercusions in Saudia Arabia after the last bombing. People sudden;y sat up and said "My god, these people are just nuts, not freedom fighters. They are killing their own people!"

And there have always been two (at least) factions on both sides. This just forced them all to lay their cards out on the table. That alone is a monumental step becuase it clarifies the real tensions.

[xi_hyperon]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
I'm wondering if both sides will work through the opposition on their respective sides and continue... or if the opposition on the respective sides will call off any talks of a treaty, and strap on the bomb belts, turn on the bomb cars.. and fire up the bulldozers and tanks.

I hope they take choice A, because it's fantasy to think that Hamas will not rear it's ugly head during the peace process. Regardless of how hard both sides try to stop it. Sharon's previous position of no talky until no more bombs is understandable, but given the fanaticsm of the terrorist group, it's not realistic. It all depends on how much pain both sides are willing to endure for the sake of a greater peace.

[macvillage.net]

Originally posted by xi_hyperon:
I hope they take choice A, because it's fantasy to think that Hamas will not rear it's ugly head during the peace process. Regardless of how hard both sides try to stop it. Sharon's previous position of no talky until no more bombs is understandable, but given the fanaticsm of the terrorist group, it's not realistic. It all depends on how much pain both sides are willing to endure for the sake of a greater peace.

You've sumarized my thoughts for the past 2 years in a nice consolidated paragraph.

It's not realistic. It's impossible. This is Israel's main test. If it could for 1 time work around Hamas, just like they are now working around Arafat... it could work.

Build trust with the new PM, and the Palestinian people. Then Hamas, will have their own people against them. THAT is how this situation will end.

Israeli retailiation has done nothing but rub salt in old wounds. Each retailiation creates a larger attack.

Finally it appears Sharon may have realized this. I'm shocked that this is happening.

Now the question is can he enlighten the others in his party about this... and hold out long enough to let this work.

This will be a long road. If Israel can hold out, and let Hamas ruin themselves... that will be their victory.

Not all wars are fought with weapons. Some are fought with the lack of. History has shown that.

Once the settlements are down, and Palestinians start to see benefits of easing Israeli policies... they will want to start building lives for themselves... That means working *with* Israel.

That means Hamas will be attacking business partners... That's not good for palestinians.

Let them rust from the inside out. The first step in that process is beginning.

[typoon]

We should let Israel Destroy Hamas and the other terroist groups like Hesbullah. They should tell the new Prime minister of the PA that if they can't handle it Israel is going to take care of the job then and only then will there be peace. I know the rest of the world probably wouldn't like it but if Hamas isn't going to stop then the only way to stop them is to destroy them to end it. If they want peace the Palitinian Authority better rein in Hamas. If not I say let Israel take care of the job.

[chris v]

Once again, religious zealotry threatens to derail the process. When a certain number of adherents to religion "A" want all adherents to religion "B" dead, it makes civil discussion difficult.

I hope the new Palistinian leadership can find some way to bring Hamas under control, if not do what really should be done, and wipe it out entirely as a viable concern. (either by dismantling it politically, or jailing its leaders as murderers if they want to do what is really right)

Step one on the road to peace: people should stop killing one another.

CV

[finboy]

Listening to the rhetoric of the militarists over the last few days has done even more to convince me that the only solution to the problem involves hunting some people down and killing them. I'd like for everyone to "just get along" but it doesn't look like that's going to happen without actually taking out the leadership of the folks who think it's OK to kill civilians. To those who argue, yet again, that this will "just make more of them" -- that's OK, the "more" will have to be killed too. Bulldozing the houses of terrorists and their families, building containment walls, whatever it takes -- the bombings have to stop.

I'm more and more convinced that Hamas and others may never be "controlled" without some of the vested leadership bearing a lot more cost than they are bearing now. It's not about control, as such, as much as it is about finding a solution, and when someone wants to kill everyone of another group, there may be only one range of fixes that actually work.

[OreoCookie]

Israel's extremists are doing the same thing. His security has been tightened, not because of Palestinian attacks, but rather ultranationalist-Jewish attacks. (One group has threatened that he will be another Rabin.) So the question is whether or not both leaders will be able to persuade the broad public to go forth and make peace despite their respective extremist groups.

[macvillage.net]

It's not like there aren't Jewish groups inciting violence against Palestinians in a similar fashon.... They just don't kill themselves in the process. They set fire to homes, use guns, etc.

They don't die for their cause.


Another attack is a 100% possibility. It's not "if" but "when". The question is when it happens... Will Israel rip up the roadmap as Hamas demands... or will they hold to it?

[moki]

I think it is pretty clear that some of the more fanatical groups in the middle east do not want peace with Israel, they want the destruction of Israel. The interesting thing here is that it seems that Hamas is now at odds with the Palestinian Authority. Are we going to let the radicals control the direction of this contentious area of the world again?

Does history repeat itself, or will all sides involved show the resolve to make a real, if uneasy, peace?

One thing to keep in mind: a real peace with Israel means that Hamas is no longer relevant. That may account for some of their "reluctance"

[vmarks]

The number of Israeli extremists who actually believe that Palestinians need to be eradicated is infintesimally small. And they don't act on it.

You don't call these extremists hardliners, because they aren't. They're extremists.

Hardliners are people in Likud, but they don't wish to kill all Palestinians. They just place the first and most important priority on ending all attacks within Israel's borders, with no hesitation to retaliate following an attack.

[itai195]

Stopping Hamas goes hand in hand with getting states to stop sponsoring it. Now's the time, Syria...

It's one thing to be freedom fighters, but I don't see any reason to reject a cease fire while peace negotiations are going on.

[moki]

Originally posted by itai195:
Stopping Hamas goes hand in hand with getting states to stop sponsoring it. Now's the time, Syria...

It's one thing to be freedom fighters, but I don't see any reason to reject a cease fire while peace negotiations are going on.

It's also more than a bit disingenuous. The states around Israel don't want the Palestinians either. Rather they cynically use them against Israel.

Ah well, at least the funding from Iraq that went to Hamas/Hezbolah is over with.

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by finboy:
Listening to the rhetoric of the militarists over the last few days has done even more to convince me that the only solution to the problem involves hunting some people down and killing them. I'd like for everyone to "just get along" but it doesn't look like that's going to happen without actually taking out the leadership of the folks who think it's OK to kill civilians. To those who argue, yet again, that this will "just make more of them" -- that's OK, the "more" will have to be killed too. Bulldozing the houses of terrorists and their families, building containment walls, whatever it takes -- the bombings have to stop.

Paraphrase: "war is peace"

The idea is to find a way to end the fighting.

Hamas can't fight without support. If they become marginalized by Palestinians for rejecting what is necessary (in the eyes of the majority) then they will eventually whither and die.

Palestinians are waking up to the fact that Hamas cannot deliver what they want--peace and security.

If Abbas can deliver, the tide will quickly turn.

The key is will Abbas be able to deliver where Arafat and Hamas have failed. Sadly, much of his success depends on Israel. They control the checkpoints, roads and settlements. Only Israel can change that.

Hamas can continue to be a fly in the ointment, but if both sides are committed to moving forward (instead of waiting for one side to deliver something it cannot without the cooperation of the other), then there is still a glimmer of hope.

[roger_ramjet]

I fear that the road to peace must pass through a Palestinian civil war first.

[boots]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
I fear that the road to peace must pass through a Palestinian civil war first.

Maybe an Israeli too. Settlements are a big deal.

[OreoCookie]

Originally posted by moki:
I think it is pretty clear that some of the more fanatical groups in the middle east do not want peace with Israel, they want the destruction of Israel. The interesting thing here is that it seems that Hamas is now at odds with the Palestinian Authority. Are we going to let the radicals control the direction of this contentious area of the world again?

Does history repeat itself, or will all sides involved show the resolve to make a real, if uneasy, peace?

One thing to keep in mind: a real peace with Israel means that Hamas is no longer relevant. That may account for some of their "reluctance"

You are forgetting the radical Jews. They tell the exact same things as radical Palestinians: there is just enough space for one of us, and it's not you. Saw an interview with an illegal settler. Cut the locks, beard, etc. and it could've been a Palestinian radical.

Sharon's security has been tightened due to possible attacks by Jewish extremists.

[OreoCookie]

Originally posted by vmarks:
The number of Israeli extremists who actually believe that Palestinians need to be eradicated is infintesimally small. And they don't act on it.

You don't call these extremists hardliners, because they aren't. They're extremists.

Hardliners are people in Likud, but they don't wish to kill all Palestinians. They just place the first and most important priority on ending all attacks within Israel's borders, with no hesitation to retaliate following an attack.

One person is sufficient. Look at what happened to Rabin. One young malleable mind is sufficient to change the climate.

I don't know whether or not there are only infinitesimally many Jewish extremists. But -- since that would be a set of Lebesgue measure zero -- I doubt that it is that few. I haven't counted them though.

We don't need to since one is sufficient.

[OreoCookie]

Originally posted by boots:
Maybe an Israeli too. Settlements are a big deal.

Yup. Some illegal settlers have said that they will fight against the clearance of their settlement.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by boots:
Maybe an Israeli too. Settlements are a big deal.

If even Sharon is willing to dismantle (some not all) settlements, they can't be a big enough of a deal to cause an Israeli civil war.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by OreoCookie:
Yup. Some illegal settlers have said that they will fight against the clearance of their settlement.

But how broad will their backing be across Israel? My guess: not very.

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
But how broad will their backing be across Israel? My guess: not very.

Again the irony that the position of the Settlers is the same as Hamas.

As they become more and more marginalized from the realistic pragmatic majority that is tired of the violence, they will not be able to continue to derail the invetitable.

If if we have to hunt each rogue settler down and eliminate them.....</poetic irony and play on previous posts....>

[AutoJC]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
I'm wondering if both sides will work through the opposition on their respective sides and continue... or if the opposition on the respective sides will call off any talks of a treaty, and strap on the bomb belts, turn on the bomb cars.. and fire up the bulldozers and tanks.

The roadmap to peace is really the avenue of doom.

What's on the table is no different than what was proposed in Oslo in the early 90's. There's still violence in that region.

[macvillage.net]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
But how broad will their backing be across Israel? My guess: not very.

That's the biggest problem that I see.

It's not hard to get the palestinian people to turn against Hamas... and even get some of Hamas to turn against eachother (read: self combustion).

The problem here is if Israel will hold out long enough for the roadmap to go beyond empty promises (which is what they are right now... just words).

My guess would be that there is a signifigant Israeli uprising. I don't think Sharon has much of a chance in having his people back him. If he doesn't get the buldozers started again himself... his own people will do it.

[OreoCookie]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
But how broad will their backing be across Israel? My guess: not very.

I have elaborated on that already. My point is that it doesn't matter how much backing they do have (but I'd take the proportion of right-wing and pro-settlement parties as a hint). One may be sufficient to stop progress on this matter. Be it an Israeli or Palestinian extremist.

Irony has it that both sides (extremists vs. more moderates) want the same thing: the one side wants peace (in one way or the other), the other wants to drive the others from `their' territory.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by OreoCookie:
I have elaborated on that already. My point is that it doesn't matter how much backing they do have (but I'd take the proportion of right-wing and pro-settlement parties as a hint). One may be sufficient to stop progress on this matter. Be it an Israeli or Palestinian extremist...

I speculated about a possible Palestinian civil war. boots suggested that there might be an Israeli one too. I'm skeptical. I rather doubt there's a perfect symmetry in the distribution of moderates and hardliners among the Israelis and Palestinians. How much backing the Israeli hardliners have certainly DOES matter if you are talking about an Israeli civil war. Stopping progress is not the same thing as civil war.

[macvillage.net]

Originally posted by OreoCookie:
Irony has it that both sides (extremists vs. more moderates) want the same thing: the one side wants peace (in one way or the other), the other wants to drive the others from `their' territory.

To true.

[boots]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
I speculated about a possible Palestinian civil war. boots suggested that there might be an Israeli one too. I'm skeptical. I rather doubt there's a perfect symmetry in the distribution of moderates and hardliners among the Israelis and Palestinians. How much backing the Israeli hardliners have certainly DOES matter if you are talking about an Israeli civil war. Stopping progress is not the same thing as civil war.

I'm not meaning to suggest it would be of the same scale. "Uprising" might be more appropriate. But the fanatics on the Israeili side of the settlement issue are essentially promising violence if Sharon goes through with even half of what he has said.

Sorry for the miscommunication.

[Zimphire]

Be weary of the man that brings "peace" to the land.

[AutoJC]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
Be weary of the man that brings "peace" to the land.

I think many of us are getting weary of the lack of a peaceful resolution in this region.

Arafat, even if he were considered to be genuine, failed to unite all of the Palestinian factions.

What makes us think Abbas will be more successful?