[moki]

An interesting conundrum for countries in Europe; even if the birth rate is changed now, the effects of that won't be significant for some time. Immigration, though equally contentious, seems to be the only recourse, especially given the questionable sustainability of welfare/pension systems in the face of a falling birthrate and an aging population

from: http://www.economist.com/displaystor...ory_id=1923383

.....

Europe's population implosion



Europe's population is shrinking and greying—with grim consequences

THE convention on Europe's future finally packed its bags last week in Brussels. At one of the many events to celebrate its achievements, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, an elderly former president of France who has been chairing it, was asked to address an organisation called Friends of Europe. With unintentional irony, the event was held in the dinosaurs' hall of the Natural History museum in Brussels. The image of a 77-year-old man standing in front of a diplodocus was uncomfortably apt. The dramatic change in Europe's demographic profile will weigh far more heavily on the continent's future than the institutional minutiae that have been preoccupying the conventioneers.

Fertility rates across Europe are now so low that the continent's population is likely to drop markedly over the next 50 years. The UN , whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate, predicts that the world's population will increase from just over 6 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion by 2050. During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to fall by 6%, from 482m to 454m. For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is dramatic. By 2050 the number of Italians may have fallen from 57.5m in 2000 to around 45m; Spain's population may droop from 40m to 37m. Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find itself with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: “Even assuming (no doubt unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population would decline to about 50m by 2100.”

Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the economic and political consequences are alarming. In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100 people of working age. By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for every 100 workers; in Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be one-to-one. Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to fund the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages into the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.

Governments are in a bind. It is no accident that in the past year France, Austria, Italy and Germany have all experienced angry outbreaks of labour unrest, sparked by attempts to make their pension systems less generous. But the longer governments wait, the worse the problem. Pension obligations will only get more onerous; and as voters age it will become ever harder to persuade them to cut pensions back. A struggle for resources will emerge between generations. Pensioners will press for higher taxes to fund the pensions and health care they believe they have been promised. Younger workers will demand cuts in increasingly onerous taxes.

Tensions are also likely between countries in the European Union. Britain and the Netherlands, which have high levels of private-pension provision and whose populations are predicted to remain more or less stable, are better placed to cope with the pensions problem. But they might still be affected by the financial problems of other EU countries, which could force up interest rates across Europe and undermine the euro. The fact that Europe's population is shrinking and ageing will inevitably also affect the aspirations of some Europeans to create a superpower to rival the United States. A recent report from the French Institute of International Relations predicts that, by the middle of the century, the EU 's GDP will be growing at just over 1% a year compared with more than 2% in North America and at least 2.5% in China. The EU , the report gloomily concludes, faces a “slow but inexorable ‘exit from history' ”.

But while the EU has a rich, old and shrinking population, countries on the Mediterranean's other side have poor, young, growing ones. The tide of immigrants, legal and illegal, crossing the sea is an obvious reaction. So shouldn't Europe be more liberal about immigration, to redress its population imbalance? An appealing idea. But the OECD calculates that immigration might have to be between five and ten times its current level just to neutralise the economic effects of ageing populations. Even today's inflow is causing political strains, with anti-immigration politicians like France's Jean-Marie Le Pen, Italy's Umberto Bossi and the Netherlands' late Pim Fortuyn popping up all over Europe.

A very European muddle-through

Persuading Europeans to have more children is the obvious alternative answer. Part of the problem may be what Italians call the “partial emancipation” of women, who are free to go out to work but are then still expected to bring up children, look after the grandparents and do the housework. Making family life easier or less expensive might help keep up the population. France, which has some of the most extensive state-funded child care in Europe, also has one of its highest birth rates. Sweden boosted its birth rate in the early 1990s by raising tax benefits for mothers. But the effect of that tailed off after a while. And as well as being costly and unpredictable, policies to encourage childbirth also make some Europeans uneasy, since they are associated with authoritarian government.

So Europe will probably try to muddle through its demographic problem. There will be some pension reform, a bit more immigration, more family-friendly policies, higher taxes, growing fiscal problems for many governments and slower economic growth. With luck the European Union will avoid or postpone a really huge economic crisis. But the political and economic renaissance of Europe that was predicted at the European convention is likely to be stillborn.

[Uday's Carcass]

Germany has had negative population growth for some time now. It's not surprising, and can be correlated (though correlation isn't necessarily causation) with high levels of industrialisation. The Great Satan, with its extremely high levels of immigration, is an exception.

[moki]

Originally posted by Uday's Carcass:
Germany has had negative population growth for some time now. It's not surprising, and can be correlated (though correlation isn't necessarily causation) with high levels of industrialisation. The Great Satan, with its extremely high levels of immigration, is an exception.

True; but even among non-immigrants, the birthrate in the US is not negative.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out; the balance between xenophobia and a need for replacement workers.

[Uday's Carcass]

Originally posted by moki:
but even among non-immigrants, the birthrate in the US is not negative.

I know; just forgot to make that clear. thanks.

[macvillage.net]

It's really not as bad as people make it.

The problem is these supremisists, either religious, sexist, racial, whatever are going to come out.


Europe throughout history bounces back and fourth. It grows, then war or disease wipe out 1/4 of it's population. Then the government forces it's people to breed like bunnies to rebuild the country... repeat.

It's a timeless tradition.

The fact that it's happening on it's own really isn't anything to worry about.

Less people per square mile is actually a good thing. American publications like the Economist fail to note that Europian cities make roads small, and inflate gas prices to keep their people from owning cars... there isn't enough space on the roads for 50% to own cars... much less the entire population (and here in America, we have more cars than drivers now).

This isn't really a bad thing. What could be bad is the perception of it.

It's not like Europe is going away. It's not like a culture is dying. Did French culture go away after WWI? No, they are still as obnoxious as ever, even after a 2nd world war. Germany survived quite a bit of population reduction. Same with Britain, Spain, and everyone else.


It's happened, and the bounce back.

Europe has had missing generations in several countries!

It all comes back. It all balances out. This is just an article of doomsday quotes to get people fired up against everyone whose not a 20 year old Europian Male.


Europe has rebounded from worse than this hundreds of times.

[simonjames]

Take Denmark as an example - an advanced country, economy, culture and fair welfare system that is now only seeing problems due to the imposition of Euro policies. Denmark does not see the need for population growth - it quite happily sustains itself on its 5 million or so inhabitants.

I believe this population growth argument is a crock. Governments and countries should get their houses in order and not blame population changes on their inadequate attempts to budget and rule fairly.

Countries like Australia and America can easily cut the fat by reducing or eliminating one of the tiers of governments. 3 tiers is one too many - there is no reason to repeat processes and legislation from one state to the next. There is no need for separate state vehicle and driver control systems. There is no need for separate state education systems.

The article implies that a user pays pension scheme is workable - well you tell that to the millions of Australians who have seen their pension funds go backwards these last few years. And there is no guarantee that any of the money squirreled away for a lifetime will be there when it is needed most.

Increasing the population of this planet is not the answer to declining economic fortunes.

[macvillage.net]

Increasing the population has many negative effects. In fact it's mostly negative, except more people = larger gross tax income.


This article sounds like some white supremacy bit. "save the white people".


There is nothing wrong with a cycle completing. Europe will still be there in 2 generations, as well as in 10. Still Europians living there.

Populations adjust to their environments. Right now the world is focused on growth and expansion again. But not population wise. For example economic growth. Women in the workplace. Women can't do everything. It's not easy to raise 3 children and work a day job 9-5. Many are choosing not to.


Also note people are having children later than ever. Baby boomers children aren't quite at the point where they want to settle down. Start a career, and have a family once you feel secure and confident. That may not happen until baby boomers reach 30. This creates a gap. People are living longer than ever. It's not like you need to have kids by 20 if you want to see them live to the age of 20 themselves. You can easily live into your 70's, and much longer. Have a kid at 30, and celebrate it's 50'th birthday at 80 years old. Now that I think about it... My grandfather just did.


There are 10k explanations for this happening. All reasonable. All logical.

The only thing that doesn't make sense is being concerned.

[Uday's Carcass]

[playing nice I am. Good Uday. ]

[voodoo]

Originally posted by Uday's Carcass:
I hope no one reads and takes seriously your over-chewed cud, robert.

welcome to my permanent ignore list

[Nicko]

Originally posted by voodoo:
welcome to my permanent ignore list

Ha ha! indeed! He gets the last slot in my list

[moki]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
This article sounds like some white supremacy bit. "save the white people".

hrm, I'm not so sure it can be summarily dismissed in that manner. Talk to anyone from France or Germany, the pension system issue is a big deal. The declining birth rate exasperates that issue in a very real way.