[moki]

I've discussed this issue with a number of people I know from Tawain; the general consensus among them is that they consider themselves Taiwanese, and do not wish to become part of China.

On the other hand, economic interests such as the heavy investment of Taiwan in China may draw the two countries together anyway -- or make any kind of an independence too costly to happen.

from: http://www.economist.com/agenda/disp...ory_id=2101686

.....

The forbidden word

The highly sensitive and potentially dangerous issue of independence has gripped Taiwan, and is unlikely to go away


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THE president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, has once again kindled a debate that he knows will infuriate China and worry the United States: whether the country should formally declare itself independent. In a speech last Sunday, marking the 17th anniversary of the founding of his Democratic Progressive Party, Mr Chen called for a new constitution that would reflect a mature Taiwan and “meet the demands” of its 23m people. As he spoke, his people waited for him to utter the most politically sensitive word in the language. But the president is a canny man. He did not want to go so far as to provoke China to invade the island, as it has frequently threatened to do should Taiwan declare independence. Instead, he warned his rivals not to twist the constitutional issue into a debate on independence, knowing that his speech would be sure to trigger such a debate.

All this week, Taipei has been agog over the issue. On Thursday October 1st, the government lost a minister who is believed to oppose independence. He objected that Mr Chen is aiming to bring in legislation that would allow public policy to be decided in many cases by referendum. One might be a vote on independence. In Washington, Taipei-watchers noted that when Mr Chen was elected president of Taiwan in 2000 he promised not to declare independence. He made five promises, known as the “five noes”, but this was the most important. The Bush administration was said to be angered that Mr Chen had not repeated the “five noes” this week. Those pledges, said a spokesman, were fundamental to stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing did not immediately respond. This week China has been busy celebrating the anniversary of the Communist Party’s takeover of the country in 1949. The country’s leader, Hu Jintao, made a speech saying China “must enrich the forms of democracy, make democratic procedures complete, expand...political participation and ensure that the people can exercise democratic elections, democratic decision-making, democratic administration and democratic scrutiny.” This may have been more than the usual party waffle brought out on these occasions. Mr Hu is a new man. He became party leader only last November, and president of the country in March. He inherited the party’s long-standing policy of encouraging Taiwan to return to what it calls the Chinese family, joining the two other prodigals, Hong Kong and the former Portuguese colony of Macau. Although it is unlikely that China under the communists could evolve into a pluralistic state, as Taiwan has, Mr Hu may believe that constant references to “democracy” may strengthen the hand of those Taiwanese who do not support independence. There is still a solid body of support in Taiwan for “reunion with the mainland”.

Would China actually attack Taiwan if it went its own way? It has a battery of missiles aimed at Taiwan and stationed just across the strait. According to a report by the Pentagon in July, the battery contains about 450 ballistic missiles with conventional warheads and China is expected to expand that number by 75 missiles a year for the next few years. China, the Pentagon said, also aims “to complicate United States intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict”. Its strategy would be to move so quickly in any Taiwan crisis that the United States could not intervene effectively. China would “compel a quick negotiated solution on terms favourable to Beijing”. However, the Chinese leadership is composed of intelligent people, aware that the use of force could get out of hand. Even a limited missile attack on Taiwan would, at least, destroy a relationship that has been hugely profitable to China. Taiwan’s investors have poured around $100 billion into China, despite tensions over the years, helping to make China increasingly rich.

So it is in China’s interest to tolerate the reality: that what it regards as a “rebel province” is, in all but name, an independent state. In September, China gritted its teeth when Taiwan began describing itself as Taiwan on the covers of its passports. It will “clear confusion”, said a Taipei spokesman, smoothly. Previous passports carried the name “Republic of China”—this was the name that Chiang Kai-Shek’s nationalists had used for the whole of China, before they fled to Taiwan from the mainland after losing to the communists in the 1940s. Beijing did not care much for this name either, but at least it sounded similar to their own “People’s Republic of China”. The Chinese leadership will have been irritated at the way last month’s passport change encouraged pro-independence supporters. About 150,000 attended a rally calling for, if not independence at this stage, a formal change of the island’s name to Taiwan, the name by which it is known to most of the rest of the world.

China reckons that it has bent backwards to be agreeable towards Taiwan. In July, worried that problems in Hong Kong would discourage Taiwan to return to the fold, it repeated a long-standing pledge not to send a single soldier to the island if it agreed to reunification. In September China invited Taiwan to co-operate in its first manned space flight, expected later this year. But the independence issue is not likely to go away. Rather the reverse. Taiwan is due to have a presidential election in March. Mr Chen, believing that a majority on the island favours further moves towards possible independence, has already started his campaign.

[moki]

(oops -- moderators, if you could move this to the Political/War forum, I'd appreciate it)

[Macfreak7]

I think we need some of these topics here to balance off the sh|t.

[Uday's Carcass]

Originally posted by Macfreak7:
I think we need some of these topics here to balance off the sh|t.

if you frequent the pol/war lounge, you'd see where the poop is. That's the reason it was separated from the Lounge proper. Me, I'm glad it was done. The Lounge is more pleasant, and the pol/war lounge serves as a channel for liberal, pacifist infidels to be enlightened.

[Zimphire]

Originally posted by Uday's Carcass:
if you frequent the pol/war lounge, you'd see where the poop is. That's the reason it was separated from the Lounge proper. Me, I'm glad it was done. The Lounge is more pleasant, and the pol/war lounge serves as a channel for liberal, pacifist infidels to be enlightened.

[MacManMikeOSX]

Pah, I wouldn't interfere with Beijing, they'd kick our ass they may not have wide spread pop culture but man they have a hell of a powerful country. I'd bet they're more or equally as powerful as The U.S.

[moki]

Originally posted by MacManMikeOSX:
Pah, I wouldn't interfere with Beijing, they'd kick our ass they may not have wide spread pop culture but man they have a hell of a powerful country. I'd bet they're more or equally as powerful as The U.S.

They certainly do have more bodies to throw into the equation, but their military is not nearly as technologically sophisticated, nor do they possess as much military hardware. Any war between China and the US really isn't worth thinking about in any event, because the consequences for both sides make it untenable for either side.

More interesting is exactly how the whole Taiwan situation pans out. I doubt the US would go to war over China assimilating Taiwan -- besides, Taiwan is the #1 purchaser of US military hardware, they have quite a little setup there themselves.

Unfortunately, the UN dropped the ball on the Taiwan issue. The Japanese were ordered out of Taiwan at the end of WWII, a territory they had occupied since the late 1800's, but the issue of what happens to Taiwan was left "to be decided" which allowed China in to stake their claim.

Had it been declared an independent country right then and there, none of this would be an issue today.

[Uday's Carcass]

Originally posted by moki:
but the issue of what happens to Taiwan was left "to be decided" which allowed China in to stake their claim.

Had it been declared an independent country right then and there, none of this would be an issue today.

hmm. Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and set up shop there. And Taiwan for a while was China in the United Nations, until Nixon's trip to China proper helped pave the way for booting Chiang and ushering in the commies.

http://www.encyclopedia.com/html/C/ChiangK1a.asp

The Great Satan continues to support a 'One China' policy. It will not support Taiwanese independence, and it is committed to the defense of that island from Chinese aggression. However, the idea is that one day (when china is not communist) they'll be one country.

[Phanguye]

Originally posted by MacManMikeOSX:
Pah, I wouldn't interfere with Beijing, they'd kick our ass they may not have wide spread pop culture but man they have a hell of a powerful country. I'd bet they're more or equally as powerful as The U.S.

considering their entire economy is based off their sweat shops making stuff for us, i dont think we will have to worry

if we ever pull our contracts they wont have oil to fight a war, or money to pay their soldiers

[MacGorilla]

I lived in Taiwan for a while so let me share some insights.

First is that we only hear about big confrontations between China and Taiwan but if you read Taiwan's papers, you soon learn they spat daily, like siblings.

My general feeling about Taiwan is that they want respect for what they have done and acoomplished, respect they feel the mainland is not giving them. Until they get that respect, they will continue to drift in the general direction of independence.