[gadster]

It seems odd to me that this is a non-issue. Someone recently tried to kill the Pakistani president. Pakistan has nukes. Worried?

[insha]

Worried?! You bet (about as much as I am worried about India having Nukes, or perhap N.Korea having them and dare I say it, United States having them)!

But it's a bit more complicated than that -- Killing the president of Pakistan (Musharaf) will not put the Nukes in the hands of the so called religious extremist; despite what you hear on the main media outlets in the US.

The reason I say this is that a good part of the government of Pakistan's high ranking officals (from the president on down) are on CIA's payroll, and they have been for a long time, before Musharaf ever came into the picture (Whom do you think brought him into power?!?)

[Shaddim]

They barely have the means of propulsion to get the nukes out of their own country, and since I don't see them nuking themselves (though that's probably what would end up happening considering whose technology they're using ie. China and Russia), I don't see it as an issue.

[insha]

Originally posted by MacNStein:
They barely have the means of propulsion to get the nukes out of their own country, and since I don't see them nuking themselves (though that's probably what would end up happening considering whose technology they're using ie. China and Russia), I don't see it as an issue.

Officially they are using Chinese tech.; unofficially it's China, Russia, France, Germany.

[dtriska]

Originally posted by insha:
Officially they are using Chinese tech.; unofficially it's China, Russia, France, Germany.

Germany has nukes? Wow, where have I been?

[Spliffdaddy]

Originally posted by dtriska:
Germany has nukes? Wow, where have I been?

Ever taken an outdoor photograph in Germany? You'll, without fail, see a cooling tower in the background. Germany has about fifteen reactors of various descriptions. More than France. More than anyone else on that side of the globe.

It ain't a stretch to think that Germany could design, assemble, and launch a nuclear warhead at the US within 45minutes.

[dtriska]

By your reasoning, so could Canada.

[wang_himself]

Pakistan and Nukes, looks like if the Pakistan pres dies, India is fux0r3d

[Spliffdaddy]

*fast-forward 9 months*


After nine months on the run, U.S. soldiers captured Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in a raid on September 13, 2004. The once-defiant German leader was captured without a shot being fired near a compound of buildings inside his ancestral hometown of Hanover. He was found in a ventilated "spider hole" with six to eight bedrooms, guest quarters, and gourmet kitchen. Its entrance camouflaged with a door.
Shroeder was described by US troops as "a tired man...a man resigned to his fate."
Found asleep on a reclining chair in his livingroom, Shroeder made no effort to resist. He repeated several times, in English, "I'm the chancellor of Germany, what in the hell are you assholes doing in my house?". He was found with a wallet containing the equivalent of $180 US based on current published exchange rates.
"He was in the bottom of a hole with no way to fight back," said Maj. Gen. Raymond Odierno. "He was caught like a rat."

[gadster]

Originally posted by MacNStein:
They barely have the means of propulsion to get the nukes out of their own country, …

Er, they have trucks, right?

[theolein]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
Ever taken an outdoor photograph in Germany? You'll, without fail, see a cooling tower in the background. Germany has about fifteen reactors of various descriptions. More than France. More than anyone else on that side of the globe.

It ain't a stretch to think that Germany could design, assemble, and launch a nuclear warhead at the US within 45minutes.

Spliff, if this is what you consider as being "right" then I've got to point you towards google. Germany recently signed into law the intent to get out of atomic energy in the next 20 years. The anti-atomic power lobby in Germany is very strong, and there are remaining nightmares from Chernobyl for the worried to think about. Germany doesn't even have any conventional short or medium range ballistic missiles.

France on the other hand, has around 65 nuclear power plants, quite a bit more than any other country in Europe and the highest density of them in the world in fact. It also has had ICBMs since the late 60's and has a fairly large nuclear armoury. However, despite the odd factors of greed and incompetence governing France's foreign policy, they haven't sold their nuclear warfare secrets to anyone, as far as anyone knows.

[theolein]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
*fast-forward 9 months*


After nine months on the run, U.S. soldiers captured Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in a raid on September 13, 2004. The once-defiant German leader was captured without a shot being fired near a compound of buildings inside his ancestral hometown of Hanover. He was found in a ventilated "spider hole" with six to eight bedrooms, guest quarters, and gourmet kitchen. Its entrance camouflaged with a door.
Shroeder was described by US troops as "a tired man...a man resigned to his fate."
Found asleep on a reclining chair in his livingroom, Shroeder made no effort to resist. He repeated several times, in English, "I'm the chancellor of Germany, what in the hell are you assholes doing in my house?". He was found with a wallet containing the equivalent of $180 US based on current published exchange rates.
"He was in the bottom of a hole with no way to fight back," said Maj. Gen. Raymond Odierno. "He was caught like a rat."

Sometimes, you really are weird, you know? Funny but strange, as they say. But you have a certain amount of prescience, that one must grant you, because your scenario above is probably what the head of the opposition, Stoiber, would love to see.

There's a joke making the rounds at the moment that goes:
Q. When will Germany finally be able to look forward to the future again?
A. When Chancellor Stoiber (current oppposition) asks the Widow of ex-Foreign Minister Fischer at the funeral of ex-Chancellor Schröder who the murderer of Ex-Minister Trittin (Greens cabinet member) was?

[theolein]

Originally posted by insha:
Officially they are using Chinese tech.; unofficially it's China, Russia, France, Germany.

If you want the history of Pakistan's nuclear effort, I should point you to FAS.

[theolein]

Originally posted by MacNStein:
They barely have the means of propulsion to get the nukes out of their own country, and since I don't see them nuking themselves (though that's probably what would end up happening considering whose technology they're using ie. China and Russia), I don't see it as an issue.

You should perhaps research a bit more on the topic before making statements like that. Here is a page from the FAS site with descriptions of their missile technology, which includes their Ghauri, which is technology bought from N.Korea (No Dong missile) with a range of around 1500 km's. They recently test fired the Ghauri III with a range of around 4000 km's.

But the danger of Pakistani nuclear technology falling into the wrong hands is a real one, and one which has often been mentioned in the press. In fact, during the invasion of Afghanistan, two leading weapon scientists were arrested there because of their contacts to both Al Qaida and the Taleban. I have no idea whether Al Qaida would ever really consider using a nuclear weapon in a terrorist attack. They are probably quite aware what the scale of the retribution would be, and this time I'm pretty sure there would be no disagreements between France, the US, the UK, Russia and China about that.

[DBursey]

... [France Hasn't] sold ... nuclear warfare secrets to anyone, as far as anyone knows.

I disagree. France's scientific, technical and material aid was instrumental in the construction of Israel's Dimona reactor and in the subsequent production of Israel's atomic arsenal.

From FAS:

For reactor design and construction, Israel sought the assistance of France. Nuclear cooperation between the two nations dates back as far as early 1950's. On October 3rd, 1957, France and Israel signed an agreement calling for France to build a 24 MW reactor (although the cooling systems and waste facilities were designed to handle three times that power) and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, a chemical reprocessing plant. This complex was constructed in secret, and outside the IAEA inspection regime, by French and Israeli technicians at Dimona, in the Negev desert.

France would supply the uranium and components already placed on order ... French contractors finished work on the reactor and reprocessing plant, uranium fuel was delivered and the reactor went critical in 1964.

Israel's nuclear weapons programme was achieved with considerable French assistance, which included the transfer of technology, provision of fuel, construction of the reactor, even a reprocessing plant to supply plutonium.

[theolein]

Originally posted by DBursey:
I disagree. France's scientific, technical and material aid was instrumental in the construction of Israel's Dimona reactor and in the subsequent production of Israel's atomic arsenal.

From FAS:



Israel's nuclear weapons programme was achieved with considerable French assistance, which included the transfer of technology, provision of fuel, construction of the reactor, even a reprocessing plant to supply plutonium.

You're right, but I also should have specified more clearly what I meant. I meant that France hasn't, as far as I know, sold warhead reentry vehicle or long range missile technology to anyone.

I didn't actually know about France building the reactor in Dimona but I do know that France did sell two reactors to Iraq, and one to South Africa, and possibly more to other countries. I think that the actual techniques of making an atomic weapon were pretty well known by then, so that moving from a uranium reprocessing plant to a bomb was probably not that much of a feat. (I assume this, I'm not sure)

[vmarks]

Mossad uncovered a 1961 plot by right-wing French army officers to assassinate President Charles de Gaulle. The agency traded information about the plot with France for nuclear-weapons technology.

Context matters, and information has value. Whether or not Israel did anything with the technology information is another matter entirely.

[gadster]

Just trying to nudge this back on topic. OBL (via old CIA contacts) is known to have strong ties to the Pakistani secret-service.

Shortly after 9/11, there was a big shake-up of the Pakistani military 'cos the Pakistani President was concerned about loyalty. General's sacked etc.

After Iraq, Moslem fundamentalists will probably have increased credibility al over. I dunno, i just think Pakistan is a bigger threat than Iraq ever was (esp. if the current Pakistani admin collapses).

[theolein]

Originally posted by gadster:
Just trying to nudge this back on topic. OBL (via old CIA contacts) is known to have strong ties to the Pakistani secret-service.

Shortly after 9/11, there was a big shake-up of the Pakistani military 'cos the Pakistani President was concerned about loyalty. General's sacked etc.

After Iraq, Moslem fundamentalists will probably have increased credibility al over. I dunno, i just think Pakistan is a bigger threat than Iraq ever was (esp. if the current Pakistani admin collapses).

Well, this has been discussed quite a lot before, but I think if the current flavour of the day collapses and some lunatic fringe group takes over, then things will become heady, no doubt. I think however that they would quickly run into problems with India, which hasn't been known to tolerate too much from the Pakistanis.

And that would be a truly frightening episode, if India and Pakistan ever went to war with one another. Wouldn't be much left over there if they did.

[DBursey]

Mossad uncovered a 1961 plot by right-wing French army officers to assassinate President Charles de Gaulle. The agency traded information about the plot with France for nuclear-weapons technology.

Well, that's a theory.

Cooperation between France and Israel goes all the way back to the Jewish state's founding in '48. Jewish scientists lent expertise developed in Nazi Germany to their French counterparts in the development of nuclear technologies in France.

There are those who believe that nuclear cooperation between the states has its roots in what is widely regarded as Anglo-Franco-Israeli complicity during the 1956 Suez crisis. Following Egypt's nationalization and closure of the Suez Canal, it is generally believed that France and Britain had conspired with Israel for the latter to provoke a war with Egypt. This would provide the pretext for European nations to send in their troops as peacekeepers to occupy and reopen the canal zone. We all know the strategic disaster this episode represented for the Europeans, but for Israel it represented an opportunity to pressure France as 'beholden' to it for having played its part in the crisis. French premier Mollet was even quoted at the time to have said privately that France "owed" the bomb to Israel.

To the topic: The Pakistani military is the state's sole power broker, and as such plays to threats from within as well as without. Military rulers won't be relinquishing control over the country's arsenal any time soon, regardless of hypothetical talk regarding the meting out of powers to a civilian administration following future elections. As long as Pakistan's military remains as fiercely secular an institution as it is today, I see no particular cause for alarm over its nuclear arsenal.

[insha]

Originally posted by dtriska:
Germany has nukes? Wow, where have I been?

It's not the Hardware (so called) that was supplied by France or Germany. It was the know how and tech specs (and to certain extent raw material) that were provided by France and Germany; of course China also contributed to this effort.

I just realized this, that Pakistan has been under sanction by the US for having nukes -- and that position has not changed (radically) since the so called "war on terror" began; yet, it is the only country being sanctioned by the US, even though US calls it an "Ally"; but the same sanctions are not extended towards it's neighbor (India) for having the nukes...

I'm not the expert on US foreign policy; so I could be mistaken.

[theolein]

Update: BBC has a story on an investigation in Pakistan into the spread of their nuclear technology.