[adamk]

A Dangerous New Policy Toward Taiwan? - 2003/12/02

We hope the Bush Administration will pull back from this catastrophic change of course. The Clinton Administration bent to China on the issue of Taiwan as well, but never as dangerously as senior Bush Administration officials are now proposing. Nor so immorally. Taiwan is a thriving democracy. The Beijing government remains a tyranny. Will the Bush administration stifle democracy in Taiwan -- actually demanding that it not hold popular votes -- to curry favor with the dictatorship?

on this issue i agree with the "neo-cons". a democratic country (at least, they are trying to be one) that is not getting support from the world super-power democratic leader? in fact, their efforts being curtailed to appease a communist dictatorship? does the domino effect only apply to the mid-east? is the moral high-ground not so lofty after all?

[theolein]

Considering that China, along with Japan, is the US' biggest trading partner, I think the moral high ground here is one defined by $ and ¢...

Welcome to the honest and pure world of geopolitics, where selling one's own mother and stealing the food off children's plates is more often than not a question of price, not ethics.

[MacGorilla]

Originally posted by theolein:
Considering that China, along with Japan, is the US' biggest trading partner, I think the moral high ground here is one defined by $ and ¢...

Welcome to the honest and pure world of geopolitics, where selling one's own mother and stealing the food off children's plates is more often than not a question of price, not ethics.

Well said!

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

There's a lot of 'iffy' language in that article.

Senior Bush Administration officials may be engineering a dramatic and dangerous shift...

...one of which may actually...

Both policy changes are being pushed by the staff of the National Security Council over the objections, we understand,...

however, if the administration makes this change,

So could maybe people wait for something to actually happen *for real* before theo starts selling his mother and stealing food from children? (Pretty bad habits if you ask me!)

I have to say, the idea that stating officially -just in case it isn't already clearly understood- that we won't defend Taiwan no matter what it chooses to do regarding rattling it's saber around declaring independence and doing things it KNOWS will provoke an aggressive response from China- seems like a smart move to me. Sure, I suppose one can paint that position as 'boo hoo we're trying to stifle their Democracy' if one views the US as Taiwan's guaranteed protector.

The reality is: Go right ahead. Taiwan can do as it wishes- even things it KNOWS will provoke an angry reaction from China. But can they do so and bank on a 100% guarantee that the US will take on freakin' China over whatever the consequences are? What, are people high or something? I don't think anything so insane has ever been US policy.

There has to be a dose of reality applied here- Taiwan exists in a very precarious location. Yes, we'd love for them to have their *guaranteed* independence, and for China to say "Hey, that's cool. Go on with you bad self."

But let's get back to reality; China isn't cool with that, and Taiwan has to play the game accordingly. Reality dictates that, yes, we'd defend them in the case of a completely *unprovoked* attack by mainland China- but there's a pesky keyword in there that probably should be closely observed. Hint: *__*



Does the situation suck? Yup. But that's life.

[theolein]

Originally posted by CRASH HARDDRIVE:
There's a lot of 'iffy' language in that article.



So could maybe people wait for something to actually happen *for real* before theo starts selling his mother and stealing food from children? (Pretty bad habits if you ask me!)

....


Reality dictates that, yes, we'd defend them in the case of a completely *unprovoked* attack by mainland China- but there's a pesky keyword in there that probably should be closely observed. Hint: *__*



Does the situation suck? Yup. But that's life.

Depends on one's definition of unprovoked I suppose. Note that I'm not doing the usual left wing polka here. Taiwan's situation is a crappy one. They have been abandoned by just about every nation on earth politically (Including the US) a long time ago in favour of China (China got the Taiwanese seat at the UN). Partly due to China supporting just about every nutjob third world Maoist insurrection, and these days mostly because China is bigger business than Taiwan.

Everyone knows the US would provide a guaranteed defense of Taiwan (The right wing polka crowd's favourite hate person, Clinton sent in the Navy in 1998 in a show of force), at least until recently. Now it looks as if Bush is making it known to the Taiwanese that he isn't too happy about them wanting to become independant and China going apesh1t about it. Privately he may think taiwan just dandy, but publicly the Chinese, who just about own the bonds of the US, want a show of sympathy for their BS.

[BlackGriffen]

Originally posted by theolein:
Considering that China, along with Japan, is the US' biggest trading partner, I think the moral high ground here is one defined by $ and ¢...

Last I checked, which was admittedly a couple years ago, Canda, Britain, Germany, et al were far bigger trading partners than Japan or China.

Thanks to Wal-Mart that may have changed, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

I'm too lazy to look up statistics myself at the moment, so would someone else care to look it up?

BlackGriffen

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally posted by theolein:
[B]Depends on one's definition of unprovoked I suppose.

Let's get real. China DOES get to dictate the definition of provocation in this case. No doubt about it. They've been saying for years, if Taiwan gets a bit too uppity for their tastes in outright declarations of independence, they'll consider that provocation.

So in truth, that means Taiwan HAS to play their game. Sure, we'll recognize them (privately) as the Republic of China and all that good stuff, but BE REAL. They can’t go hanging their asses at the mainland, thumbing their noses, rattling the saber and believing that we've got their back no matter what.

Would we start WWIII over Taiwan, if they were to step afoul of China's definition of 'provocation'? Personally, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Everyone knows the US would provide a guaranteed defense of Taiwan

I think if the Taiwanese believe that, they'd better pack for the mainland sooner, rather than later.

Let's see here- the US 'guaranteeing' an Asian nation defense against communist aggression... hmmmm.... I dunno... somehow that sounds oddly familiar to me. Sounds like a ‘been there, done that, got burned, no sir, didn’t much like it’ to me.

Also sounds like a really BAAAAAAD idea whose time has come and gone.

Privately he may think taiwan just dandy, but publicly the Chinese, who just about own the bonds of the US, want a show of sympathy for their BS.

Not sure what you mean by ‘own the bonds’, but why do people seem to forget the fact that the Chinese carry an AWFULLY big stick?

Might that have something to do with it?

If anything, the timing sucks for Taiwan. Right NOW especially, while our military is busy with about a gazillion other things to tend to, is just simply NOT the time for Taiwan to go making a whole bunch of ‘Independence’ noise and betting the farm on guaranteed US support.

That scenario has ‘Rude Awakening’ written all over it.

[theolein]

Well, I agree with you on most of that, but one can just as well look at it from the other side: Would the Chinese be willing to go to war with the US if the US resolutely backed Taiwan? The balance of power between the US and China hasn't changed much since 1998 when Clinton sent the Navy into the straights when Chinese war games were getting out of hand.

What has changed is that the US invaded Iraq on far shakier grounds than defending Taiwan would be. Taiwan is the place where a good deal of western computer technology gets built (Almost all the PC mainboards are made there, and all Macs too), and a war or invasion would bring that to a shuddering halt even if only temporarily before the Chinese got things going again. Not only that but Taiwan is actually a country where the "freedom" slogan that you Americans love slinging about all over the place actually has meaning.

Note that I'm not saying that the US is obliged to defend Taiwan, but what I am pointing out is that US geopolitical interests there are at a lower priority at the moment than they are elsewhere, whereas China is crapping its geopolitical pants that an independant Taiwan would make a good case for Tibet and the Moslem Uighurs to also go for independance, apart from that age old Asian problem of losing face.

[nonhuman]

Originally posted by CRASH HARDDRIVE:
Not sure what you mean by ‘own the bonds’, but why do people seem to forget the fact that the Chinese carry an AWFULLY big stick?

China's "big stick" is their army. Army, as in people on foot and in trucks. Last I checked, there's not land access between China and the US. On sea and in the air, the US would tear China to bits like a piece of rice paper. The only way China poses any threat to the US is economically (and possibly in terms of nuclear capability, but MAD makes it unlikely that that would become an issue). I don't know the numbers, but trade with China has increased dramatically in recent years, and is still increasing quickly. They're basically revamping their economy to a capitalist model because they need the money and as a result are getting all sorts of overseas investment and business, much in the form of manufacturing contracts, all of which could easily be moved to different countries (Mexico, Korea, India, you name it) with only a slight interuption in service and a (relatively) small, one-time cost.

True, they could hurt the US by cutting us off from their economy, but that would hurt them far more than us. There are literally billions of people in China. There are not enough jobs. If China stopped doing business with the US, they'd lose a lot of their manufacturing contracts and with them, a lot of jobs. They'd also lose a huge influx of cash that comes from foreign business opperating in Chinese territory. Basically, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.

The only possible justification I can see for not backing Taiwan, is that pissing off China could cause a severe depression that would undoubtedly kill a large portion of China's population. It might hurt us economically, but not severely, and only short-term.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally posted by nonhuman:
[B]China's "big stick" is their army. Army, as in people on foot and in trucks. Last I checked, there's not land access between China and the US. On sea and in the air, the US would tear China to bits like a piece of rice paper.

Somehow I could see the same assesment being made about the strength of North Vietnam back in the 60's. We saw how that turned out. I think the last thing we need to do is underestimate the Chinese, and the idea of getting into a direct war with them is just insane.

The only possible justification I can see for not backing Taiwan, is that pissing off China could cause a severe depression that would undoubtedly kill a large portion of China's population. It might hurt us economically, but not severely, and only short-term.

It's sad, but I can see the position that Taiwan 'falling' under complete mainland control wouldn't be such an unfavorable situation. It's a safe bet all they want is Taiwan's manufacturing base and income. The Chinese didn't dismantle and enslave Hong Kong did they? The hope is, that China will eventually become more open and capitalist anyway- why get into some nasty war with them, when they may be a decade or two away from a Soviet-style 'folding' of their communist ways anyway?

Not that the situation wouldn't suck for Taiwan, but as I said before- the US promising to fight nasty battles against communist agression? That's a 1950's-60's era idea. And we got nothing but burned for our efforts anyway. Heck, even after the US fought some nasty war to 'liberate' Taiwan, we'd catch nothing but the usual "you're just trying to conquer them!" flack for it from the usual peanut gallery anyway, and never hear the end of it. Hell, eventually even the Taiwanese would probably join the chorus themselves! I should think we've learned our lesson by now.

[theolein]

If learning the lessons of history was a job requirement for politicians then I seriously doubt that many politicians would have made it to the positions they have.