[NYCFarmboy]

Who do you think will win the Democratic Primary in NH and why?


I think Dean will pull off an upset and win.
Why: New Hampshire voters are very independant and traditionally don't like being led around by the nose by Iowa voters.

[BRussell]

Dean upset? He's been leading there for months, and is still ahead there in the polls.

I think Kerry will edge out Dean, and Clark will come in third. The problem is that Kerry isn't even on the radar in the Feb. 3 states, whereas Clark should do well since Dean has lost some thunder. It's gonna be a fun primary.

Edwards will come in 4th, nothing will happen for him in the south in the week after, and he will drop out Feb. 4.

Lieberman will be 5th in NH with maybe 5% and will drop out the next day.

Kucinich and Sharpton will get like 16 votes between them but will keep running right through to the convention.

[NYCFarmboy]

Originally posted by BRussell:
Dean upset? He's been leading there for months, and is still ahead there in the polls.

I think Kerry will edge out Dean, and Clark will come in third. The problem is that Kerry isn't even on the radar in the Feb. 3 states, whereas Clark should do well since Dean has lost some thunder. It's gonna be a fun primary.

Edwards will come in 4th, nothing will happen for him in the south in the week after, and he will drop out Feb. 4.

Lieberman will be 5th in NH with maybe 5% and will drop out the next day.

Kucinich and Sharpton will get like 16 votes between them but will keep running right through to the convention.

Kerry is ahead by 3 points today according to FoxNews.

[Lerkfish]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
Who do you think will win the Democratic Primary in NH and why?


I think Dean will pull off an upset and win.
Why: New Hampshire voters are very independant and traditionally don't like being led around by the nose by Iowa voters.

*finds self in the odd position of agreeing with NYCFarmboy*, except for the last line.* I don't think that enters into it, a rivalry with Iowa.

[BRussell]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
Kerry is ahead by 3 points today according to FoxNews.

I don't know what poll they're using, but according to the 2 tracking polls out right now, Dean is ahead of Kerry 25-23 (Zogby poll), and according to the ARG poll Dean is ahead 28-26. Well, it is closer than I thought, but I was at least right that Dean is ahead.

[BlackGriffen]

Well, Kerry definitely got his bounce from Iowa. If I understand correctly, Iowa is traditionally worth about 4-5 points in NH.

I think Dean has the best chance of winning, but that it's too close to say either him or Kerry will definitely win.

BlackGriffen

[NYCFarmboy]

everyone watching the debate tonight?

It appears there might be a backlash against the showing of the Dean Iowa concession speech over and over.

[Nonsuch]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
everyone watching the debate tonight?

It appears there might be a backlash against the showing of the Dean Iowa concession speech over and over.

I'm very curious how Dean will look on Letterman tonight. If he does well, it may give the press something positive to talk about and the clip can start to (mercifully) go away.

[slow moe]

Issues are off the table, and which ever candidate they think can beat Bush is the one they'll blindly follow.

[Lerkfish]

Originally posted by slow moe:
Issues are off the table, and which ever candidate they think can beat Bush is the one they'll blindly follow.

You're free to think that.

[kindbud]

Reckon we'll have to wait until they find somebody that can beat Dubya.

[NYCFarmboy]

Originally posted by kindbud:
Reckon we'll have to wait until they find somebody that can beat Dubya.

I saw on the news last night that Dean was gaining in the polls...back to within single digits behind Kerry (he had been 20 points down in some polls but is picking up again after the Diane Sawyers interview..which is being widely distributed in NH by the Dean campaign.).

All of today's Sunday morning talk shows were about how overblown the reaction was to the "I had a scream" campaign rally....Dean's huge war chest against Bush and Kerry's political voting record weaknesses.

Is a Dean revival at hand?

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
I saw on the news last night that Dean was gaining in the polls...back to within single digits behind Kerry (he had been 20 points down in some polls but is picking up again after the Diane Sawyers interview..which is being widely distributed in NH by the Dean campaign.).

All of today's Sunday morning talk shows were about how overblown the reaction was to the "I had a scream" campaign rally....Dean's huge war chest against Bush and Kerry's political voting record weaknesses.

Is a Dean revival at hand?

20 points down? What polls showed that? I haven't seen anything even close to that large of a spread.

[BRussell]

Today, the smallest Kerry-Dean gap is 13 points, and several are over 20 still.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by BRussell:
Today, the smallest Kerry-Dean gap is 13 points, and several are over 20 still.

Thanx. It's been a couple of days since I last checked. I'm surprised things have deteriorated that much for Dean. More than surprised, I'm skeptical, actually. I just don't see Kerry winning by that much.

[perryp]

http://www.davidwissing.com/demstatepolls.html

According to Zogby, Kerry has only 3% lead. The other polls put his lead between 8 and 20%.

[roger_ramjet]

Zellweger Stretches Lead on Dean in New Hampshire

(2004-01-26) -- Renee Zellweger, the Golden Globe-winning actress, widened her lead in New Hampshire by six points over former Democrat presidential frontrunner Howard Dean, according to the latest CNN-NYT-NPR-ET Zogby tracking poll...

[Zimphire]

Even funnier

"If I had been an actor in 'Cold Moutain'," said Mr. Kerry, "I would have pretended to fight for my country in the Civil War, instead of pretending to harbor deserters, like Ms. Zellwegger did."

Mr. Kerry, who has served as a Vietnam veteran for more than 30 years, refused to say which side of the war he would have pretended to be on.

[BRussell]

So at this point the polls suggest:

1. Kerry by a healthy margin
2. Dean clear second
3. Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman tied for third, with Edwards having a bit of an edge.

[HoosierK]

Hoping for Dean.

Kerry is just another Washington insider politician..who DID vote for giving Bush authorization to do anything he wanted in Iraq.

Dean is the only true candidate who is anti-war.... Clark/Kerry/Edwards are just saying whatever is popular at the moment to get elected.

[HoosierK]

3:14 p.m. in the afternoon..what do the exit polls show?

[BRussell]

Originally posted by HoosierK:
3:14 p.m. in the afternoon..what do the exit polls show?

I don't think they talk about them until after the voting stops.

[BlackGriffen]

Originally posted by BRussell:
I don't think they talk about them until after the voting stops.

Heh heh, right. From DailyKos:

Here are the 1 p.m. exit poll numbers I've been able to get my hands on (from a media source. Caveat emptor):
LA Times:

Dean 34
Kerry 33

ABC News:

Kerry 37
Dean 31
In both these polls, both Clark and Edwards are hovering around 12 percent.

The National Review's The Corner has Kerry 36, Dean 31, Edwards 12 and Clark 12. Probably the ABC News tracking poll with Kerry's number rounded down.

BG

[NYCFarmboy]

Going to be an interesting night.

Looks like Dean is back with at the minimum a VERY STRONG 2nd place which is amazing considering he was down in the polls over 20 points as little as 2 or 3 days ago.

Amazing comeback for Dean.



EDIT: at 8:39 p.m.

ooops...now CNN shows Kerry winning in landslide!

so much for the amazing comeback! a respectable 2nd place showing for Dean..but...a double digit loss would not be something to "scream" about.

[BlackGriffen]

Results are on their way.

BlackGriffen

Edit: That link doesn't work. Try this one or this one.

BG

[kindbud]

whoa!

Al Sharpton shows a big upswing in popularity by getting 53 votes. Roughly the same number of people that were given free beer, cigarettes and a bus ride to the polling station by Sharpton supporters.

[BlackGriffen]

Here are the most current results I can find:

Precincts Reporting: 32 percent

Kerry: 39
Dean: 25
Edwards: 14
Clark: 13
Lieberman: 10 _

Hmmm. Two observations:

• Dean spent too long as the frontrunner - I don't see the supporters of the other candidates going to Dean as their candidate drop out, instead they'll coalesce around a non-Dean candidate.
• Given that, barring several victories amongst the Feb 3 states that signal a massive increase in momentum, Dean is out. The best he'll be able to hope for is a brokered convention.

A brokered convention may be in the best interests of the Democrats, anyway. A primary that is contested till the end will keep the news cycle tied up, reducing Bush's free publicity. It will also mean that Bush will have greater trouble "opening fire" until the convention because the Dems will have a plan B waiting in the wings.

The nomination is Kerry's to lose, now. Let's see if the media will put him under as harsh a microscope as they did Dean.

BlackGriffen

[zigzag]

Originally posted by kindbud:
whoa!

Al Sharpton shows a big upswing in popularity by getting 53 votes. Roughly the same number of people that were given free beer, cigarettes and a bus ride to the polling station by Sharpton supporters.

Reminds me of an old joke: "I won almost as many states as McGovern, and I wasn't even running."

[Zimphire]

I am just glad Dean isn't leading.

http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1107_2-5147158.html

[itai195]

I'd take anything on zdnet with a grain of salt... or a few grains...

[BlackGriffen]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
I am just glad Dean isn't leading.

http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1107_2-5147158.html

You mean the same guy who promulgated the lie about Al Gore claiming to have invented the internet (admittedly, a biased source, but the facts and quotes stand up)?

The Register has a nice, tidy, rebuttal.

Then there's the fact that Lawrence Lessig has been an advisor since last September.

In fact, here's what Lessig had to say about the article in a blog posting:

what declan doesn’t get (how to read)

Free free to try this at home:

(1) Read what Dean said about privacy here.

(2) Read what Declan said Dean said about privacy here.

Andy O’s got a nice piece of reporting about this “reporting” at The Register.

Sounds like you bought into the lie of a professional spin-doctor. Please be more careful next time.

BlackGriffen

Edit: You can read the anti-democratic ranting (that's democratic, with a small 'd', iow, not the party) of Declan here.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by BlackGriffen:
<snip>

I'm just glad Dean isn't leading.

[BlackGriffen]

I'm just glad he still has a chance.

He could have finished like Lieberman or Clark, then he'd be screwed. As it is, he has a hard fight ahead of him, and he'll need some luck to win it, but he sure as Hell isn't dead.

BlackGriffen

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
I'm just glad Dean isn't leading.

It's a good thing he read his concession speech from note cards tonight. It gave him something to focus on and helped keep him stable.

The only problem was whoever wrote those notecards decided that Dean was going to solve every problem in the world. I don't know how one man can do all this. He's going to solve global warming. He's going to rid our dependence on oil, and on, and on... I guess when you are behind, you need to spark it up a notch and start promising more things to more people. But if he continues at this rate, no one's going to believe any of it because it will border on the ridiculous.

Maybe someone needs to step in and remind him that there is no global warming, or tell him to say that he already solved it.

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by BlackGriffen:
He could have finished like Lieberman or Clark

No he couldn't have - not with his bankroll and money spent. That's why Iowa was such a disaster.

New Hampshire could be considered as much of a disaster, being that it and Dean's Vermont are tight, next-door neighbors.

[Zimphire]

Black all the links read like a spin. ]

Dean still doesn't have a chance.

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
Dean still doesn't have a chance.

We'll know a week from now where he stands.

Do you think he'd run as a third-party candidate?

[Zimphire]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
We'll know a week from now where he stands.

Do you think he'd run as a third-party candidate?

I don't think he will try if he isn't a winner after this week. IMHO.

Not that I think Kerry is any better.

[NYCFarmboy]

Dean's speech tonight at times was incredible. I just wish he would have given that speech in Iowa instead.

Its not over yet though.... CNN.com tonight showed Dean is very close to Kerry in terms of the actual number of delegates awarded so far.

Kerry is going to be raked over the coals for the next few weeks...his free ride is over...but..I guess he can always just keep writing checks to his campaign from his wife's dead husbands fortune.

[ghost_flash]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
Dean's speech tonight at times was incredible. I just wish he would have given that speech in Iowa instead.

Its not over yet though.... CNN.com tonight showed Dean is very close to Kerry in terms of the actual number of delegates awarded so far.

Kerry is going to be raked over the coals for the next few weeks...his free ride is over...but..I guess he can always just keep writing checks to his campaign from his wife's dead husbands fortune.

I'm going to guess you don't like Kerry too much.

Dean is one scary dude man. There is another thread with a link to an interview he gave about privacy and wowsers. NO WAY!

Let me just paraphrase him and say, he is not a fan of privacy.

[quandarry]

i say kerry with dean coming in second.

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by ghost_flash:
Dean is one scary dude man. There is another thread with a link to an interview he gave about privacy and wowsers. NO WAY!

Not that I am a Dean fan, but BlackGriffen posted this link that gives another angle on that privacy stuff. It's worth a look, especially since you seem quite disturbed by it.

[Zimphire]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
Not that I am a Dean fan, but BlackGriffen posted this link that gives another angle on that privacy stuff. It's worth a look, especially since you seem quite disturbed by it.

Yeah it was exaggerated. But the register did point out he was supportive of a lot of "anti-freedoms" esp in the computer field.

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
Yeah it was exaggerated. But the register did point out he was supportive of a lot of "anti-freedoms" esp in the computer field.

I know. And with Dean...it's either his way or the highway.

I sure hope there are some rest areas on that interstate.

[ghost_flash]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
I know. And with Dean...it's either his way or the highway.

I sure hope there are some rest areas on that interstate.

Dean does not look very computer literate to begine with, so I'm choosing to still be a bit shocked by this. This is so, non-democratic of him.

[slow moe]

[Twilly Spree]

Originally posted by slow moe:

:o

Enough said!

I've given this a good thought and I agree with Spacefreak on Dean. Every single one of the other Dem candidate hopefuls is a worthless scumbags or dangerous liberal.

I'm still hoping for a Bush/Giuliani ticket against the Dems

[hyteckit]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
I am just glad Dean isn't leading.

http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1107_2-5147158.html

National identity card. Good idea. No more people stealing my credit card number and using it online. I'm all for National identity card for use with a PC (um Mac).

[NYCFarmboy]

Originally posted by slow moe:

The smile of spending your wife's dead husbands fortune.

[roger_ramjet]

Dean Blames N.H. Loss on 'Dial-Up Net Neanderthals'