[roger_ramjet]

No, not Howard Dean - although he has plenty of problems of his own. I'm talking about Wesley Clark. He's currently third in the polls in New Hampshire. After sitting out Iowa this is NOT good. Clark had New Hampshire to himself during the run-up to Iowa. For a little while there he appeared to be moving up. Now, however, all that momentum seems to have evaporated.

With all the noise about Kerry's rise and Dean's meltdown it's hard to see how Clark can get noticed short of setting himself on fire. And it's not going to get easier. I'm betting Dean bottoms out right about... now. This morning's polls from the Boston papers have Dean roughly 10 points behind Kerry. From here on out the story will be "Can Dean Come Back?" If we hear Clark's name mentioned it will be over some real or imagined gaffe. Say goodnight, Wesley.

[zigzag]

Yes, it's interesting. Clark was going to be the un-Dean until Kerry and Edwards rebounded. Now Clark has to fight three foes instead of one.

Clark seems like the perfect candidate on paper - southern, military, centrist - but there's a chilly Gore-like quality about him that can be off-putting. I realize that that might be putting style over substance but voters notice these things.

The big question mark is: can Kerry carry his momentum into the South, and the answer is probably No. That leaves an opening for Edwards and Clark.

I still don't see Dean rebounding very far or for very long, but stranger things have happened.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by zigzag:
... I still don't see Dean rebounding very far or for very long, but stranger things have happened.

Dean's already seen his highwater mark. The south is going to be hell on him. That said, he still has a boatload of cash. And he'll be the story just long enough to crowd Clark to the sidelines. I think Edwards has a real shot, though.

[BRussell]

Clark is sitting pretty well right now in the post-NH states. His only real competition has been Dean, and if Dean falls, it's easy to see him winning a bunch of those states. It's gonna be fun.

Kerry is, right now, nowhere to be seen in those post-NH states. But given his rise over just a few days in Iowa and NH, who knows...

And those polls show Clark pulling ahead of Dean in NH in the tracking, or really Dean dropping below Clark. I think if Clark comes in second in NH, I think he still has a chance.

And I think it's true that Clark is not a political natural like an Edwards, but he has that "Washington outsider" factor that Kerry lacks, and that often seems important to people.

[edit] I wonder if his coming out will help him with the gay vote?

[roger_ramjet]

Dean Leads Kerry in Battle for Underdog Status

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by BRussell:

[edit] I wonder if his coming out will help him with the gay vote?

I saw that on Drudge. Hysterical. Clark dressed in full early 90s clone. Next he'll appear on Will & Grace.

It's just a shame he didn't voice his opposition to Don't Ask, Don't Tell when it might have mattered -- like when he was a general.

[thunderous_funker]

Over a year ago, I said Dean would be a great VP on the Dem ticket. He says all the wonderful reformist, populist things that people want to hear and has serious street cred. The Dems could nominate the usual DLC phoney and add Dean as a harmless VP to draw out the young and independents without actually risking the chance that he'd actually reform anything.

Then he launched to the front and I got my hopes up. Way up.

When Clark came in I predicted he would be the VP, perhaps even on the Dean ticket. That sounded like a goldmine to me. Dean to draw the young, disenfranchised, working class, etc and Clark to allay any fears of Dean's inexperience in foreign affairs. Hell, on paper it still sounds like a dream ticket. Well, except that Dean appears to have done so well "outside the box" he can't get back in.

After Iowa, I think the only thing that will keep Edwards from being the VP is if he actually wins the nomination. He will be on the ticket, top or bottom. I don't see how that could possibly change now.

As for Clark, I'm not sure what it is that makes people reluctant to latch on. I watched a blurb of a speech last night and he was unbelievable. He laid down the law on his vision of what a commander-in-chief should be and what should be done in Iraq and it was fiery, eloquent, persuasive and pretty damned impressive. But every time he paused in his speech expecting some audience reation, he didn't get it. In fact, the room was so damn quiet I turned to my wife and asked if there actually was an audience (the TV only showed him at a podium). We were just about to conclude that he was alone with a camera crew when he finished and the applause started. Very polite applause.

Maybe he's just harped military too much? Maybe voters are really concerned about a General as president when the current guy already seems way too militant? I haven't really heard him talk about domestic stuff and that seems to be what the voters are responding to so far. Voters love his credentials, but they just don't seem to be warming up to him the way he needs them to.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
As for Clark, I'm not sure what it is that makes people reluctant to latch on. I watched a blurb of a speech last night and he was unbelievable.

You've answered your own question.

[slow moe]

"They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!

Everyone loves the king of the sea,
Ever so kind and gentle is he,
Tricks he will do when children appear,
And how they laugh when he's near!

They call him Flipper, Flipper, faster than lightning,
No-one you see, is smarter than he,
And we know Flipper, lives in a world full of wonder,
Flying there-under, under the sea!"