[roger_ramjet]

Is Dean Done?

Looks that way.

[maxelson]

I dunno. Be really interesting to see how this little crisis is managed.

[roger_ramjet]

Look at it this way. He passed on the federal matching funds. Why? Well, it was assumed he had plenty of cash. Also, not talking the federal money meant he could spend as much as he wanted in Iowa and New Hampshire. Looks like he gambled to get the early momentum that would attract still more money later in the game. He didn't get the wins he needed and now the cashflow has slowed enough to cause this crisis. Problem is: this is the part where things start to get a LOT more expensive.

[Twilly Spree]

I'd like to read the whole article but it isn't available.

As I've said before I'd have liked to see Dean as the Dem pres candidate. There won't be any fun in seeing Kerry beaten to pulp by George Bush

For me it is a win/win situation. If Dean would have made it the elections this fall would have been slightly interesting but if Dean doesn't make it President Bush will make minced meat out of his opponents and make an easy win.

As an American I want the best for our country and both alternatives are positive in their own way.

[maxelson]

Not sure I'd count him out. He's hauled though tougher before. I suppose it depends totally upon whether or not he can convince folks that he can beat Bush. On the other side, don't count out Kerry too quickly. Remember, a LOT of people are pretty pissed and not a few of them are still angry about 2000 (this would be regardless of anyone's thoughts and feelings on that issue- it is a reality and folks can call it what they will- it may be the thing that costs Bush the White House). This is the way for them to express that.

Once again- I'm not going predict the election. I think it makes one look pretty dumb. NO ONE knows how this will fall. It will probably be just as close as the last one.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by Twilly Spree:
I'd like to read the whole article but it isn't available....

Yes it is. It doesn't cost you anything. You don't have to give them any info. You just have to click through an ad.

[Twilly Spree]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
Yes it is. It doesn't cost you anything. You don't have to give them any info. You just have to click through an ad.

I thought it was subscription based.

Ok now I've read the whole thing

[Nonsuch]

Even if he didn't win a single delegate, the Democrats would owe Dean a tremendous debt of gratitude for energizing the base and getting people (including the other candidates) motivated to defeat George Bush. While the DLC preached compromise and "playing ball" with the President, Dean refused to be cowed, showing a courage that was desperately needed and that has galvanized Bush's opposition.

I'd be more sanguine about Dean's dropping out of the race if I had more confidence in Kerry. I simply don't understand why everyone suddenly loves him so, and while his poll numbers are encouraging, I can't see them lasting. I'm not sure Kerry has the wit or the skill to deflect the Dukakising he's about to get from the GOP. (I'd enjoy seeing Edwards nominated just for the look on Karl Rove's face.)

Still, there was another Salon article today that provides an important perspective. Dean's campaign may be faltering, but the opposition to Bush is strengthening (the article is subscription only):

For the first time the country is hearing sustained criticism of President Bush -- and though the Democratic presidential primaries have been going less than two weeks, the effect has been immediate. Bush was already rattled and preoccupied with his suddenly full-throated opposition even before the Iowa vote. He scheduled his State of the Union address to follow it by a day. The speech was crafted as a sharply partisan, argumentative reply. [...]

Bush's State of the Union was the most poorly rated in modern times. By the weekend, his approval had fallen below 50 percent in a Newsweek poll and he was three points behind Sen. John Kerry, the new Democratic front-runner.

In New Hampshire, the turnout for the Democratic primary was the greatest in history, reflecting the party's determination to oust Bush. Of especial importance was the enormous influx of independents, whose participation constituted 48 percent of all voters, showing the turn of the moderates. Intensity against Bush has combined with the felt need for an electable candidate. Democrats don't want either/or, political clarity or political skill, but both in one package. Now, in the din, the party is finding its voice.

[...]

Dean can claim he opposed the Iraq war from the start, but they all lash Bush now on his falsehoods and abuse of intelligence to justify it. Among Democrats, the issue is no longer salient in defining one candidate against another. The nuance of difference means there are no irreparable internal divisions. For the next two months, though the result appears foreordained, the Democratic road show will barnstorm the country from coast to coast against Bush, more symphony than cacophony.

[Edit: Added URL]

[thunderous_funker]

Wow. Did they really blow their wad on Iowa and New Hampshire??

No wonder Dean had to do some demotions. Yikes. Well, they raised with small donations before, they can do it again as long as they can keep the press from prematurely declairing them dead.

Perception is reality and the media controls perception in a national campaign.

[Evan_11]

The elections are a ways off. Regardless of the current WMD debacle only 2 things will matter come next November:

1) The Economy.
2) Are soldiers still getting killed at a dozen a week over in Iraq.

I see both improving so I would gander that who ever is up against Bush will have a difficult fight.

The reality is that the populace is fickle. There is a tide that you must weather to make it.

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
Perception is reality and the media controls perception in a national campaign.

I'll agree to a point, but the media wasn't pulling the strings behind Dean during his post-Iowa howl, or when he told that New Hampshire senior citizen Bush man to "sit down...".

[Nonsuch]

Originally posted by Evan_11:
The elections are a ways off. Regardless of the current WMD debacle only 2 things will matter come next November:

1) The Economy.
2) Are soldiers still getting killed at a dozen a week over in Iraq.

1a) The Deficit/Debt.

In happier times, the GOP was the party of hard money, balanced budgets, and a shrinking public debt. Back then, it was Democrats itching to prime the pump with deficits while blithely ignoring the size of the debt. Now the roles are reversed. And the public has noticed. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll last year, 64 percent disapproved and only 29 percent approved of tax cuts as the best way to improve the economy. In a CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll last September, 74 percent said a candidate's position on the deficit would be taken into account this year. By a whopping 60 to 21 percent, Americans said they would reduce the deficit by canceling some tax cuts, rather than spending less on health and education. And now, in a Pew Research Center poll this month, 51 percent call the deficit a top priority for Bush and Congress. All of which would seem to give Democrats a major issue, especially as Bush proposes to make the tax cuts permanent, at a cost of $1.7 trillion added to the deficit over the next decade.
— US News & World Report

I laugh when Bush claims candidates like Kerry are "out of step" with "real" Americans ...

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by Nonsuch:
I laugh when Bush claims candidates like Kerry are "out of step" with "real" Americans ...

Where did you see this quote?

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
I'll agree to a point, but the media wasn't pulling the strings behind Dean during his post-Iowa howl, or when he told that New Hampshire senior citizen Bush man to "sit down...".

Your characterization of both events demonstrates just how utterly and completely the media coverage has colored your view of those 2 incidents.

“Dean is finished! Once the elite media is out to get you, you’re done.” -- Bill O'Reilly commenting on the "howl" being shown an estimated 600 times in one week.

Last night I saw yet another "pundit" on MSNBC say Dean is "looney left" without anyone even bothering to ask them to back that assertion up. Or even define what the hell it was supposed to mean.

Noam Chomsky is "looney left". The Green party is "looney left". You know what Vermont Greens think of Dean? They think he is "the best republican governor we ever had."

Is this the same "looney left" guy who is being attacked for making a speech that seemed to favor National ID cards like some members of Homeland Security would like? The same "looney left" that gets full marks from the NRA? Balanced budgets? Harry Truman's 50 year old idea for universal healthcare?

Bill O'Reilly talks about Dean getting "hammered" by the media

[spacefreak]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
Your characterization of both events demonstrates just how utterly and completely the media coverage has colored your view of those 2 incidents.

I saw the howl live, and was quite perplexed and disturbed, and I saw the entire replay of the "sit down...GWB is not my neighbor" outburst in its entirety - from when the man started speaking to Dean's finishing his statement.

Neither event was "colored" by the media, contrary to your accusation. You are just upset that the media is replaying these Dean missteps so that everyone interested can see them and make up their own minds about the man.

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
I saw the howl live, and was quite perplexed and disturbed, and I saw the entire replay of the "sit down...GWB is not my neighbor" outburst in its entirety - from when the man started speaking to Dean's finishing his statement.

Neither event was "colored" by the media, contrary to your accusation. You are just upset that the media is replaying these Dean missteps so that everyone interested can see them and make up their own minds about the man.

How many replays did you see of the senior citizen in Iowa who spent 10 mintues telling Dr. Dean (in the middle of a Q&A sesstion) about his Divine Visions that predicted various weather events over the past 10 years (regaled in excrutiating detail) and how a similar Manifestation (received while taking a bath and watching TV) had revealed that Dean would be president while Dean patiently and politely listened, thanked him for his comments, and treated the man with dignity even while others in the room were getting rather snippy and heckling the old-timer?

Or when a Veteran proceeded to lecture Dean for 10 minutes on some obscure military fiasco during WWII that had left his unit POWs, the details of their torture, all leading to some obscure question about a pending lawsuit against the government and some DOJ legal gymnastics while Dean politely listened, thanked him for bringing it to his attention, apologized for not being aware of the incident or the pending legal issues and asked him to meet with him later so he could discuss it with in at their leisure?

I'd estimate that Dean's "howl" received more TV play than any speech he's made about healthcare, national security, or economic reform.

But yeah, the media isn't coloring public perceptions about the man. Not even when they call him "looney" on an alledged "news" program.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
How many replays did you see of the senior citizen in Iowa who spent 10 mintues telling Dr. Dean (in the middle of a Q&A sesstion) about his Divine Visions that predicted various weather events over the past 10 years (regaled in excrutiating detail) and how a similar Manifestation (received while taking a bath and watching TV) had revealed that Dean would be president while Dean patiently and politely listened, thanked him for his comments, and treated the man with dignity even while others in the room were getting rather snippy and heckling the old-timer?

Of course he was polite. The exchange had no opening for Dean to trash Bush. We already know how Dean reacts when the subject turns to the president.

This isn't complicated. Dean knew people were saying he was an angry person and that he "shot from the lip". So what does he do? He loses his cool with that guy who told him to stop trash-talking President Bush. If "Angry Dean" is a characature, right there Dean did nothing to dispel that idea. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Part of what a candidate MUST do is manage his message. Dean didn't. If people have the wrong idea about him, it's his own damn fault.

[Nonsuch]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
Where did you see this quote?

I'm afraid I don't remember where (I read a lot of quick articles off Google News), and in fairness it was probably a Bush campaign spokesman.

[GG Allin]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
Part of what a candidate MUST do is manage his message. Dean didn't. If people have the wrong idea about him, it's his own damn fault.

I agree. The more I watched Dean the less I liked what I was seeing. When a candidate is asked what his plan is. His plan should not be about what the present Admin has done. That is not a plan. That means his plan is to win the election and worry about his policies later.

It puts people off. You can start with a message against the current Admin but you had better have more to say. Otherwise the Dems realize that you are what you are railing against generally if not specifically.

If Dean had given the media enough positive news they would have gotten little mileage out of "the scream."

"You have the power" only goes so far. Then the people start saying "yeah the power to do what?"

[boots]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:


Part of what a candidate MUST do is manage his message. Dean didn't. If people have the wrong idea about him, it's his own damn fault.

While I agree that the media repeating the mis-steps every 20 minutes does color people's perceptions, I will support roger's statement here.

Dean isn't doing much to dispel the perception. More often that not, he's reinforced it. He may not have time to repair the perceptions now. There's still a long way to go, but people really do seem to have decided that Dean isn't electable...not next to Bush. It will be interesting to see what happens to Kerry in the southern states.

But Dean has been his own worst enemy so far.

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
Of course he was polite. The exchange had no opening for Dean to trash Bush. We already know how Dean reacts when the subject turns to the president.

This isn't complicated. Dean knew people were saying he was an angry person and that he "shot from the lip". So what does he do? He loses his cool with that guy who told him to stop trash-talking President Bush. If "Angry Dean" is a characature, right there Dean did nothing to dispel that idea. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Part of what a candidate MUST do is manage his message. Dean didn't. If people have the wrong idea about him, it's his own damn fault.

Its Dean's fault that his gaffes get endless TV coverage, but his warm and fuzzy moments get virtually none?

The point isn't that his gaffes are a media fabrication, the point is that by only concentrating on his gaffes, the media creates the perception of the "angry" or "looney" guy whose camaign is "imploding", despite the fact he still has the most delegates.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
Its Dean's fault that his gaffes get endless TV coverage, but his warm and fuzzy moments get virtually none?

What do you know about Dan Quayle? There's nothing new about what's happened to Dean.

[boots]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
Its Dean's fault that his gaffes get endless TV coverage, but his warm and fuzzy moments get virtually none?

The point isn't that his gaffes are a media fabrication, the point is that by only concentrating on his gaffes, the media creates the perception of the "angry" or "looney" guy whose camaign is "imploding", despite the fact he still has the most delegates.

That can only be taken so far. I don't watch TV news and only listen to news radio for a while in the morning...but I do watch some of the speeches. I have not been impressed with Dean. He is not doing a very good job of conveying his ideas (not that the media covers ideas anyway...). The mis-steps I've seen have been virtually real time, not soundbite snips put together for the evening news.

He doesn't impress me. His record does, but he doesn't. I'm having a hard time bring those two out of dissonance. I don't go for the glitz and personality, so it isn't that. He just isn't making it easy for people to see why they should vote for him.

[GG Allin]

Originally posted by thunderous_funker:
Its Dean's fault that his gaffes get endless TV coverage, but his warm and fuzzy moments get virtually none?

It is obvious that the media are a bunch of hyaenas. I despise them.

It is Dean's fault that he is not really "liberal" much less lefty. I would say he is more of an opportunist. He has some liberal issues. I liked him at first but being against the war is not enough in a campaign just as it is not enough in this forum! You have to know the reasons you are against this war. And it ain't just because it was the wrong time.

[boots]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
What do you know about Dan Quayle? There's nothing new about what's happened to Dean.

I've said it before, I'll say it again...Dan Quayle is one of the most politically astute people we've seen in recent history. A complete social moron, but he has great political insight even if he doesn't/didn't use it.

That and the fact that he was one of the best VP's a president could ever have...he drew the heat from Bush I. If Clinton had had a Quayle on board, the number of scandals he would have had in office would have been virtually zero. His VP would have been running a perpetual diversion.

[thunderous_funker]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
What do you know about Dan Quayle? There's nothing new about what's happened to Dean.

I didn't say it was new, I said I thought it was more hostile than any I could remember.

I had forgotten about Quayle so I'll have to reconsider my opinion on which was worse. Quayle certainly got hosed unfarily. I certainly agree with that.

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by boots:
I've said it before, I'll say it again...Dan Quayle is one of the most politically astute people we've seen in recent history. A complete social moron...

What made Quayle a social moron?

[roger_ramjet]

Dean Shake-Up: Rove Takes Helm of Troubled Campaign

[maxelson]

combined with ::shudder::

[roger_ramjet]

This one isn't satire but it's still funny.

[boots]

Originally posted by roger_ramjet:
What made Quayle a social moron?

Maybe it was the backwards bazooka picture....

He seemed to get flustered when under scrutiny and made stupid mistakes that he would never have made if he wasn't in the spotlight.

To be fair, I'm a social moron too, so this isn't a value judgement, just a observation on why he was treated the way he was.

[roger_ramjet]

[Nonsuch]

OK, that's pretty funny.

[maxelson]

You kiddin'? That's HYSTERICAL!
Now. Rog. What're YOU doing with the Doons?

[roger_ramjet]

Originally posted by maxelson:
You kiddin'? That's HYSTERICAL!
Now. Rog. What're YOU doing with the Doons?

Why wouldn't I? It doesn't ALWAYS amuse me but I always read it.

[vmarks]

Originally posted by maxelson:
You kiddin'? That's HYSTERICAL!
Now. Rog. What're YOU doing with the Doons?

FWIW I always read what Garry has to write- being a fraternity bro and all.

[Evan_11]

Has Trudeau ever drawn a character who looks like they've gotten a good nights sleep?

Regardless its a direct hit on the Deaninacs. A shallow group they are.