[dcolton]

Nothing is forever. How do you think the United States will eventually fall? Do you think it will be through war or revolution (political, civil war, etc.) and when do you think it will occur.

[Logic]

economical collapse.

I might elaborate more later.....

[Zimphire]

Ah the haters are already planning America's demise.

[fromthecloud]

Wow.

I think I'm going to throw out that idea that it's not going to for a very very long time. Perhaps thousands of years.

The beauty of the Constitution is just how flexible it is. It can be modified and changed over time, that way a radical change in government is not needed for simple socilogical climate changes. It can adjust for the times while still providing the basic foundation that makes the US arguably the most desirable place to live currently and perhaps in history.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by fromthecloud:
Wow.

I think I'm going to throw out that idea that it's not going to for a very very long time. Perhaps thousands of years.

The beauty of the Constitution is just how flexible it is. It can be modified and changed over time, that way a radical change in government is not needed for simple socilogical climate changes. It can adjust for the times while still providing the basic foundation that makes the US arguably the most desirable place to live currently and perhaps in history.

While I agree with you to an extent, I don't think so. We have already reached the point in a society where wants outweigh needs. There are a lot of intelligent people on this board, and perhaps they can shed a little light on the different phases a government/ society goes through - ie. Aguarian, post aguarian, pre-industrial, industrial, post-industrial and so on.

I believe, that we will definatly experience a deeper divide on social issues. And if the economy takes a downturn, that divide could easily turn into the catalyst for civil war.

[Zimphire]

Eh, we weathered through one civil war and made it. We can do it again.

And if it happens, it wont be a victory for the anti-gun America haters I can assure you that.

[lil'babykitten]

Anubis shall destroy America (and the rest of the world) unless SG1 find the lost city of the ancients where a powerful weapon is located......

OK I've been watching too much Stargate...

It will be economic.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by Zimphire:
Eh, we weathered through one civil war and made it. We can do it again.

And if it happens, it wont be a victory for the anti-gun America haters I can assure you that.

LOL

But, do you really think America will last forever? It's great and easy to say that we have the greatest constitution and form of government in the world...but everything comes to an end. I never imagined that the USSR would have fallen. The roman empire fell. All great empires come to an end...and I believe (and I am pro-American more than you can imagine) that the USA will eventually fall. To push the envelope even further, I think that we are experiencing the beginning of the end right now.

Lets make up a scenario:

War with N. Korea - 100,000 troops die
Social Divide - War or no war
War on Terror - Diminishing Freedom and more government intrustion
Big Business - More executives convicted of stealing money
Racial Tensions - White cop put to death for killing black villain
Political Movement - leftest liberal anti-everything to have something to cry about

[Zimphire]

Originally posted by dcolton:
LOL

But, do you really think America will last forever?

I don't think this earth is going to last forever. So no.

I never imagined that the USSR would have fallen.

I did. It was ran by socialists.

Lets make up a scenario:

War with N. Korea - 100,000 troops die
Social Divide - War or no war
War on Terror - Diminishing Freedom and more government intrustion
Big Business - More executives convicted of stealing money
Racial Tensions - White cop put to death for killing black villain
Political Movement - leftest liberal anti-everything to have something to cry about

This has been going on since the start of America. Nothing really new. And again, if this brings out a civil war, I think we all know who is more prepared and equipped.

[UNTeMac]

Originally posted by dcolton:
LOL

But, do you really think America will last forever? It's great and easy to say that we have the greatest constitution and form of government in the world...but everything comes to an end. I never imagined that the USSR would have fallen. The roman empire fell. All great empires come to an end...and I believe (and I am pro-American more than you can imagine) that the USA will eventually fall. To push the envelope even further, I think that we are experiencing the beginning of the end right now.

Lets make up a scenario:

War with N. Korea - 100,000 troops die
Social Divide - War or no war
War on Terror - Diminishing Freedom and more government intrustion
Big Business - More executives convicted of stealing money
Racial Tensions - White cop put to death for killing black villain
Political Movement - leftest liberal anti-everything to have something to cry about

It's always the left's fault with you isn't it?

How's this...

War with North Korea - Country further upset by reelected Bush's warlike stance.
Social Divide - Further evangelical Christian infiltration of high levels of government leading to bans on abortion and eventually non-procreative sex as well as the beginning of government funding religion.
War on Terror - (agree with you there 'cept we'll never "win" the war on terror.)
Big Business - (there too)
Racial Tensions - we already survived the worst forms of that.
Political Movement - right-wing ultra conservatives begin banning everything they don't agree with, Fascist party of America becomes a viable 3rd party.

[Zimphire]

Originally posted by UNTiMac:

War with North Korea - Country further upset by reelected Bush's warlike stance.

That would be the liberals again. You need to replace "Country" with "Liberals"

Social Divide - Further evangelical Christian infiltration of high levels of government leading to bans on abortion and eventually non-procreative sex as well as the beginning of government funding religion.

But that isn't happening and you wont see it happen. It's moving towards the OTHER direction.

Big Business - (there too)

You do know the left receive just as much or more big business contributions compared to the Right, right?

Political Movement - right-wing ultra conservatives begin banning everything they don't agree with, Fascist party of America becomes a viable 3rd party.

Or a ultra left liberals banning everything they don't agree with, Facist party of America becomes a viable 3rd party.

Remember who was trying to get certain records and books banned.

[Logic]

Only thing I know for certain is that if Bush is re-elected it will bring the end closer.

Please re-elect him

[Timo]

"Fall of America" is our nickname for the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota.

[ghost_flash]

Originally posted by Logic:
Only thing I know for certain is that if Bush is re-elected it will bring the end closer.

Please re-elect him

The end of liberals and their childish thought process.

[Spliffdaddy]

I'm moving to Iceland after the collapse of the USA.

word.

[Logic]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
I'm moving to Iceland after the collapse of the USA.

word.

Why not now?

[Logic]

Originally posted by ghost_flash:
The end of liberals and their childish thought process.

Would that be a personal attack? Or just +1?

And are you sure I'm a liberal?

[nonhuman]

Originally posted by lil'babykitten:
Anubis shall destroy America (and the rest of the world) unless SG1 find the lost city of the ancients where a powerful weapon is located......

OK I've been watching too much Stargate...

It will be economic.

Mmm, Stargate. I need to watch the rest of season 5 and catch up so I know what's going on in the new episodes.

[SimeyTheLimey]

The US is in no danger of civil war so long as there is still some spirit of compromise. In general, I think that spirit is alive and well. Americans are generally a live-and-let live sort and despite our strong differences on some issues, in general, we have more in common with one another than deep differences. Of course, we have our share of idiots who think that someone else's life makes theirs unbearable to the point where no compromise is possible. But give and take is very well entrenched here.

A good example is the election of 2000. For all the rancor and heated passions, there was no violence whatsoever.

I don't have enough of a crystal ball to be able to predict the future. It is interesting to me that people talk about "America falling." Nobody talks about countries like France, Sweden, the Netherlands, etc. falling. I think the difference is that people are reluctant to believe that being an American is a nationality in the same way as being French is. Even after 200+ years, there is still this persistent idea that this is an artificial country, and therefore a temporary one. I think it is becoming time to give that up. For all its diversity, America has a distinct culture and that binds us together far more than pessimists admit and in just the same way as other, older, countries are bound together. Even if we tore up the constitution we'd still be the same country with a new constitution just as France has remained France through its different constitututions.

(note: please don't kneejerk this as an attack on France. I'm merely using it as an example of a country with a strong sense of national identity.)

[phoenixboy]

Originally posted by dcolton:
Nothing is forever. How do you think the United States will eventually fall?

it will stumble over its megalomaniacal attitude.

[ghost_flash]

Originally posted by Logic:
Would that be a personal attack? Or just +1?

And are you sure I'm a liberal?

Uhm, It doesn't matter what *you* are, get over yourself. Based on your response, I would say liberal anyway, to satisfy your childish response to my post.

Personal Attack? On what? Liberals in the USA? Sure, ok.

[Scientist]

Before we can answer this question we first need to define what a "fall" is. And what is the US anyways? It changes every second of everyday. What threshhold needs to be passed in order for a change to be considered a fall?

If the US was to undergo a massive cultural change and all its citizens embraced veganism, the french language, camel worship and noctural living, would that be a fall?...even if the government remained similar?

What if the US was annexed by canada but remained similar culturally and economically. WOuld that be a fall? THe cultures of canada and us are largely the same anyways...

[macvillage.net]

I'd put my money on the fact that it will be economic and political, rather than military (though you can argue military is political).

Our government doesn't scale very well. It's a known weakness. It's slow and bulky. We just ignore laws, because it's to much work to change/remove them. Look at the books on stupid laws, that people just don't have the time/effort to remove.

We still debate civil rights.
Our congress is so bloated and slow, economic policy change on their behalf takes years to take effect, by then the economy has completely changed.

As the country grows, and there are more representitives, perhaps even more states (ppl wanting to annex Puerto Rico are a growing group, some even talk about Cuba once Castro keels over). It will only get worse.


I'd bet, the colapse of the US will be from within. Just to much bloat, and inefficiency to get anything accomplished.


It's pretty much like running Windows XP on a old 486.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
Our government doesn't scale very well.

Au contraire. It scales very well. In 1789, the United States consisted of about four million people (including many with no, or next to no voting rights) scattered up and down the Atlantic seaboard in 13 states. Now it is over 290 million, in 50 states stretching out as far as Alaska and Hawaii. Moreover, the franchise has been extended to women, racial minorities, non-property owners, and 18-20 year olds.

We've also acquired a fourth branch of government in the administrative state that the Framers wouldn't have recognized at all, and vastly increased the scope of the federal government. In fact, many would argue that our government scales too well.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by SimeyTheLimey:
The US is in no danger of civil war so long as there is still some spirit of compromise. In general, I think that spirit is alive and well. Americans are generally a live-and-let live sort and despite our strong differences on some issues, in general, we have more in common with one another than deep differences. Of course, we have our share of idiots who think that someone else's life makes theirs unbearable to the point where no compromise is possible. But give and take is very well entrenched here.

A good example is the election of 2000. For all the rancor and heated passions, there was no violence whatsoever.

I don't have enough of a crystal ball to be able to predict the future. It is interesting to me that people talk about "America falling." Nobody talks about countries like France, Sweden, the Netherlands, etc. falling. I think the difference is that people are reluctant to believe that being an American is a nationality in the same way as being French is. Even after 200+ years, there is still this persistent idea that this is an artificial country, and therefore a temporary one. I think it is becoming time to give that up. For all its diversity, America has a distinct culture and that binds us together far more than pessimists admit and in just the same way as other, older, countries are bound together. Even if we tore up the constitution we'd still be the same country with a new constitution just as France has remained France through its different constitututions.

(note: please don't kneejerk this as an attack on France. I'm merely using it as an example of a country with a strong sense of national identity.)

I would disagree, if we tore up our constitution, we would not be the same country. While the name France has remained the same, they aren't the same country they were 100 years ago.

If we were defeated in a war, and a foreign military occupied American land...we would not be the same nation...even after the occupation (maybe France would come to our rescue).

I guess what I am trying to say is that that "unique"culture that binds us together could also be the thing that seperates us.

[Ayelbourne]

Originally posted by dcolton:
How do you think the United States will eventually fall?

Hmmm... I thought it already did, right around 1987...







Seriously, though, there are so many factors in play, it's hard to make a prediction like that. However, as a good friend of mine sometimes says, "The pendulum always swings back the other way.". Empires always fall. America appears currently at the "bread and circuses" stage. Oh, and gladiator shows...

Personally, I feel Wim Wenders had it right in Bis ans Ende der Welt: slow devolvement into a "third world superpower".

Paddy Chayefsky was also was quite the prescient fellow. Televised executions, indeed!

[zigzag]

Originally posted by Scientist:
If the US was to undergo a massive cultural change and all its citizens embraced . . . nocturnal living

Would the EPA have to regulate nocturnal emissions?

[dcolton]

Scientist,

Very good point. Let's define a fall as any change made in the US government, policy or political, not accomplished through the democratic process.

[phoenixboy]

Originally posted by dcolton:
Let's define a fall as any change made in the US government, policy or political, not accomplished through the democratic process.

you mean like amending the constitution to ban homosexuals from becoming legally married?

[dcolton]

Originally posted by phoenixboy:
you mean like amending the constitution to ban homosexuals from becoming legally married?

We can use that as an example. What if MA decided that they weren't going to recognize the amendment? What would happen then, how would the President enforce the law...by simply not recognizing the marriages. Wouldn't the refusal be an affront to the very essence of America and the constitution? Would the federal government stop all federal monies to Mass. Would gays flock to Mass

We are already seeing mayors around the nation ignore laws and issue marriage certificates to gays. So MA, CA, VT, and a few other states refuse to follow the constitutional amendment claiming states right's. What then?

[fizzlemynizzle]

Originally posted by macvillage.net:
We still debate civil rights.

The day that debates over issues like civil rights end is the day America falls.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by dcolton:
Scientist,

Very good point. Let's define a fall as any change made in the US government, policy or political, not accomplished through the democratic process.

Our constitution isn't designed to be strictly democratic and never was.

A better definition would be a change not made throgh the constitutional process. But I still think that what makes America America isn't contained within the four corners of that one document. After all, the United States of America was born in 1776, not 1789. The constitution we currently have is our second constitution.

[phoenixboy]

Originally posted by dcolton:
So MA, CA, VT, and a few other states refuse to follow the constitutional amendment claiming states right's.

honestly, in the long run i don't think it would change things all that much. the percentage of gays in the us is (as in every country) relatively small (and the ones wanting to get legally married even smaller).

[dcolton]

Originally posted by SimeyTheLimey:
Our constitution isn't designed to be strictly democratic and never was.

A better definition would be a change not made throgh the constitutional process. But I still think that what makes America America isn't contained within the four corners of that one document.

Your point is taken as well. But I am not talking about something minor. I am talking more about a devastating blow to the American way of life. Something on the magnitude of the civil war - which we survived, but resulted in a major change in the United States. I would argue that the US pre-Civil War and post-Civil War are two different nations

[cpt kangarooski]

Ayelbourne--

Personally, I feel Wim Wenders had it right in Bis ans Ende der Welt: slow devolvement into a "third world superpower".

Great movie, but it got _way_ too slow and boring in the second half or so.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by dcolton:
Your point is taken as well. But I am not talking about something minor. I am talking more about a devastating blow to the American way of life. Something on the magnitude of the civil war - which we survived, but resulted in a major change in the United States. I would argue that the US pre-Civil War and post-Civil War are two different nations

I wouldn't agree with that particular example. But the only way to pursue it is to get into a semantic argument about the definition of nation.

I think most people I've read would use nation much more broadly than I think you do. For example, recognizing that the Polish nation existed even when Poland wasn't on the map as an independent country.

I think it is certainly true that the Civil War marked a turning point for the US and somewhat changed how we viewed ourselves. I read an interesting book that traced a linguistic change. Prior to the Civil War, most Americans referred to the United States in the plural -- "these United States." Afterwards, the norm became referring to it in the singular -- "the United States." So psychologically there may well have been a profound shift. Politically, also, there is no doubt that the Fourteenth Amendment profoundly changed the way the federal government interacts with the states. But there have been other similar turning points -- most notably, the New Deal. That changed the nation, but I think it is still the same nation.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by SimeyTheLimey:
I wouldn't agree with that particular example. But the only way to pursue it is to get into a semantic argument about the definition of nation.

I think most people I've read would use nation much more broadly than I think you do. For example, recognizing that the Polish nation existed even when Poland wasn't on the map as an independent country.

I think it is certainly true that the Civil War marked a turning point for the US and somewhat changed how we viewed ourselves. I read an interesting book that traced a linguistic change. Prior to the Civil War, most Americans referred to the United States in the plural -- "these United States." Afterwards, the norm became referring to it in the singular -- "the United States." So psychologically there may well have been a profound shift. Politically, also, there is no doubt that the Fourteenth Amendment profoundly changed the way the federal government interacts with the states. But there have been other similar turning points -- most notably, the New Deal. That changed the nation, but I think it is still the same nation.

I would say that the civil war defined the role of the federal government and limited the power of the states. A huge change in the way the country operated.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by dcolton:
I would say that the civil war defined the role of the federal government and limited the power of the states. A huge change in the way the country operated.

No doubt about that at all. But I think the United States before the Civil War and after it was still the same nation.

A more interesting question: what was it during the Civil War?

[dcolton]

Originally posted by SimeyTheLimey:
No doubt about that at all. But I think the United States before the Civil War and after it was still the same nation.

A more interesting question: what was it during the Civil War?

So are you saying that as long as a nation keeps the same name, there is no major change. Is Italy the same as before WWII?

During the Civil War? It just proves how strong convictions can be. Thats why I wonder, in our want based nation, how long and how deeply seperated the left and right will become. What do you think would happen if the government tried to take guns away from the people? What do you think would happen if the government paid retribution for slavery? What do you think would happen if the governement forced one state's to share limited resources (water) to the point it is a hardship?

[Ayelbourne]

Originally posted by SimeyTheLimey:
But the only way to pursue it is to get into a semantic argument about the definition of nation.

So what's stopping you?








Sorry, Simey, couldn't resist!

[zigzag]

I think the occasional malcontent will try to incite civil war, but everyone else has too much at stake. The fact is that we're becoming an increasingly homogeneous, interdependent, and federally-controlled place, which is both good (more tolerant) and bad (more bland). And we've survived far more divisive issues than gay marriage and Iraq. Indeed, I think Dubya couldn't be more grateful to the people who are pushing the gay marriage issue - it enables him to throw meat to his base in the form of a constitutional amendment, forces the waffling Dems to take a position, and distracts everyone from more important matters. If he wins the election I doubt you'll ever hear him mention it again.

As for post-industrial decline, etc., I'm not smart enough to speculate, and if such patterns hold, there's nothing we can do about it anyway. I think our biggest fears at this stage should be (a) Islamic fundamentalism, (b) environmental catastrophe, and (c) that Styx is considering a reunion.

[nonhuman]

Speaking philosophically, it is generally considered that if something becomes divided (as the US was during the civil war) it is destroyed and there are two new things, neither of which is the original thing. When you put those two things back together you're going to have a fourth thing which is different from the original thing and from both of the two parts it was split into.

The internal dynamics of the US after the Civil War were significantly differant from the internal dynamics of the US before the Civil War. If that wasn't the case, there wouldn't still be people flying the Confederate flag. There was a lot of damage done to both the South and the North in the course of the war, both physical and psychological. Neither side was the same at the end of the war as they were at the beginning of the war. So, I think the US is a different nation now than it was before the Civil War.

[UNTeMac]

Originally posted by Zimphire:

That would be the liberals again. You need to replace "Country" with "Liberals"

No, large numbers of conservatives have voiced concerns about the war, especially the enormous spending it involves.

But that isn't happening and you wont see it happen. It's moving towards the OTHER direction.

http://www.phc.edu/news/trumpet/2003_03/2003_03_01.asp
http://www.whitehouse.gov/government/fbci/
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...age/index.html

You do know the left receive just as much or more big business contributions compared to the Right, right?

Read what I replied to, and yes I know.

Or a ultra left liberals banning everything they don't agree with, Facist party of America becomes a viable 3rd party.

Remember who was trying to get certain records and books banned.

She had huge Republican support on that issue due to the "morality" concerns, etc. Using one terribly misguided person to encompass the entire left-leaning part of the nation is hardly a sound argument. What has the left tried to ban recently anyway?

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by dcolton:
So are you saying that as long as a nation keeps the same name, there is no major change. Is Italy the same as before WWII?

During the Civil War? It just proves how strong convictions can be. Thats why I wonder, in our want based nation, how long and how deeply seperated the left and right will become. What do you think would happen if the government tried to take guns away from the people? What do you think would happen if the government paid retribution for slavery? What do you think would happen if the governement forced one state's to share limited resources (water) to the point it is a hardship?

No. I'm saying that you can have major changes and still be the same nation. I can't tell you at what point a change becomes severe enough for a nation to no longer be a nation because what a "nation" is is basically subjective. People identify themselves as belonging to a nation. When they change that subjective identification, the nation breaks up. This may, or may not be directly connected to a political change. To gove an example, Poles considered themselves to be Polish even when they were part of the Russian Empire.

Here, I think the core of what it is to be an American was the same before and after the Civil War. And in fact, I think that is reflected in the historical record. Both north and south saw themselves as protecting their rights as Americans. And after the war, there was quite an effort to come together again as one nation.

But, like I say, "nation" is a subjective term. Everyone is going to define it a bit differently.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by zigzag:
I think the occasional malcontent will try to incite civil war, but everyone else has too much at stake. The fact is that we're becoming an increasingly homogeneous, interdependent, and federally-controlled place, which is both good (more tolerant) and bad (more bland). And we've survived far more divisive issues than gay marriage and Iraq. Indeed, I think Dubya couldn't be more grateful to the people who are pushing the gay marriage issue - it enables him to throw meat to his base in the form of a constitutional amendment, forces the waffling Dems to take a position, and distracts everyone from more important matters. If he wins the election I doubt you'll ever hear him mention it again.

As for post-industrial decline, etc., I'm not smart enough to speculate, and if such patterns hold, there's nothing we can do about it anyway. I think our biggest fears at this stage should be (a) Islamic fundamentalism, (b) environmental catastrophe, and (c) that Styx is considering a reunion.

That is the point I am trying to eventually get to zig...post industrial decline. We are a wants based nation now, the only thing we have to unite (or divide) us is ideology. More issues come into play that wouldn't have even been considered a decade ago. Without any specific examples, I guess I would say that America is becoming more liberal, while people like me remain steadfast with our conservative ideals. I think this will result in a number of different factions fighting for power (gained democratically) while the minority factions wait for a catalyst to force change.

[SimeyTheLimey]

Originally posted by dcolton:
That is the point I am trying to eventually get to zig...post industrial decline. We are a wants based nation now, the only thing we have to unite (or divide) us is ideology. More issues come into play that wouldn't have even been considered a decade ago. Without any specific examples, I guess I would say that America is becoming more liberal, while people like me remain steadfast with our conservative ideals. I think this will result in a number of different factions fighting for power (gained democratically) while the minority factions wait for a catalyst to force change.

Is your problem change, or democracy?

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by Logic:
And are you sure I'm a liberal?

[SARCASM]If you're not a conservative, you must be a liberal.[/SARSASM]

If the US falls from the inside, it will likely be a result of some government trying to restrict too many rights or increase police powers too much. If it is taken down from the outside, it will likely be the result of a coalition of countries tired of US unilateral decisions that have global impacts.

I don't see either scenario happening anytime soon.

[forkies]

Originally posted by nonhuman:
Speaking philosophically, it is generally considered that if something becomes divided (as the US was during the civil war) it is destroyed and there are two new things, neither of which is the original thing. When you put those two things back together you're going to have a fourth thing which is different from the original thing and from both of the two parts it was split into.

(speaking of philosophy) check up on closest continuer theory

[nonhuman]

Originally posted by forkies:
(speaking of philosophy) check up on closest continuer theory

Ok, ok, so not all philosophies agree with that statement... But in this case, I think it holds true if for no reason other than that the two halves were altered significantly before being put back together.

[nonhuman]

Originally posted by Wiskedjak:
If you're not a conservative, you must be a liberal.

Sarcasm?