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djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 09:05 AM

I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

lil'babykitten · Jul 23, 2004, 09:08 AM

ya huh

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by lil'babykitten:
ya huh

Glad you are agreeing with me!

Logic · Jul 23, 2004, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Doesn't look to good for the Bushies

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 09:10 AM

A predictor based on what???

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 09:12 AM

For those that dont want to open a new page:

Strong Kerry (196)
Weak Kerry (26)
Barely Kerry (63)
Exactly tied (11)
Barely Bush (38)
Weak Bush (79)
Strong Bush (125)

Looks like 63 BK is a lot more then 38BB

I still say that Bush will win. I bet it is by a good majority too.

dreilly1 · Jul 23, 2004, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

Oooh, you think the other guy is a weiner. That's sure to make the evening news tonight. I'm sure Kerry is quaking in his boots, and asking Edwards to hold him and make all the mean people go away.

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 09:18 AM

Logic: Thanks for the site. Have any more like it?

dreilly1: I bet he is! At least 1 person thinks he is a weiner. He might as well drop his bid now!

Wiskedjak · Jul 23, 2004, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

Wow ... looks like you've put alot of thought into that reasoning

voyageur · Jul 23, 2004, 09:46 AM

Make it a nice, sweaty, muddy sock.

Princeton professor predicts 98% chance of Kerry win. This is based on a cumulative analysis of polls.

He has some other interesting predictions about which states will go for which candidate, and a new blue-red map which displays state size according to number of electoral votes, rather than actual size. It will be interesting to see how close he comes.

And what in God's name is a "weiner"??

xi_hyperon · Jul 23, 2004, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by voyageur:
Make it a nice, sweaty, muddy sock.
Princeton professor predicts 98% chance of Kerry win. This is based on a cumulative analysis of polls.

He has some other interesting predictions about which states will go for which candidate, and a new blue-red map which displays state size according to number of electoral votes, rather than actual size. It will be interesting to see how close he comes.

And what in God's name is a "weiner"??

Logic and voyageur, thanks for the links.

MacGorilla · Jul 23, 2004, 09:57 AM

I believe Kerry will win and I think it will be a karge margin; I don't think it will be close.

BlackGriffen · Jul 23, 2004, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

Quoted, and I'm tempted to bookmark it, just to see you eat humble pie with a hint of athlete's foot.

BG

Lerkfish · Jul 23, 2004, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

Reasons why Bush will win:

1. Kerry is a liberal weiner.
2. Bush is the bomb.
3. Read #1

How can anyone challenge such a well-thought out argument?
I see the republicans have the corner on the vote from People Who Make Policy Decisions On The Basis Of Schoolyard Taunts.

Lerkfish · Jul 23, 2004, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by MacGorilla:
I believe Kerry will win and I think it will be a karge margin; I don't think it will be close.

Actually, IF the elections are held at all (no guarantee of that at this point), I agree Kerry will easily win the popular vote by a large margin, but Shrub will still be annointed el presidente for life through either blatant manipulation of electoral college, diebold-ing the votes or simply installing martial law.

He's the antichrist. He HAS to stay in power.

Spliffdaddy · Jul 23, 2004, 10:41 AM

else your prong theory is totally wrong...

Troll · Jul 23, 2004, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am forecasting a win this year. If I am wrong, I will eat a sock. Anyone want to challenge me on this?

My, my, my. What a silly boy you are! Okay, I challenge you to that. If Bush loses, I will contribute to the costs of having the MacNN'er who lives closest to you meet you to verify your consumption of 1 time sock.

Wiskedjak · Jul 23, 2004, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by MacGorilla:
I believe Kerry will win and I think it will be a karge margin; I don't think it will be close.

I think the massive, publicly thwarted at the last minute, terrorist attack will sway the tide in Bush's favour.

Lerkfish · Jul 23, 2004, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
else your prong theory is totally wrong...

so far, its been proven correct, unfortunately.

MacGorilla · Jul 23, 2004, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Wiskedjak:
I think the massive, publicly thwarted at the last minute, terrorist attack will sway the tide in Bush's favour.

If that happens, then yes Bush will win. His approval ratings shot up just after 9/11.

Spliffdaddy · Jul 23, 2004, 10:56 AM

Let's see here...

Dubya is dead even with Kerry - and Dubya is the most hated man on Earth right now.

Gotta love the Democrats.

MacGorilla · Jul 23, 2004, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
Let's see here...

Dubya is dead even with Kerry - and Dubya is the most hated man on Earth right now.

Gotta love the Democrats.

All the Democrats have to do is put someone reasonably charismatic and able to speak the issues as their candidates and I believe they'll win big. Whether or not Kerry meets these requirements is up in the air.

dreilly1 · Jul 23, 2004, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
else your prong theory is totally wrong...

Can someone please clue me in on this prong business? I must have missed it...

Spliffdaddy · Jul 23, 2004, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by dreilly1:
Can someone please clue me in on this prong business? I must have missed it...

When Dubya does anything at all - it's one of the three prongs.

simple, huh?

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 12:18 PM

Ahh I knew I would get a good response from all of the liberal/democrat people here. Anyone want to say they will eat a sock if Kerry wins? It is only fair...

Lerkfish · Jul 23, 2004, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by dreilly1:
Can someone please clue me in on this prong business? I must have missed it...

Well over a year I posted this here. those items that have either come true or appear about to come true I will bold (though there is some room for disagreement):

From another thread:
Here's just something to stimulate conversation. Here is my pet "conspiracy theory". I like to think about them, even if I view them with a healthy grain of salt...

How would the neocons achieve their goals?

I envision a three prong approach...

prong one: control all three branches of the government, and the intel community. Rumsfeld has already created his "CIA within the CIA" group, and the office of Homeland Security puts everything under the purview of Tom Ridge. More and more power controlled by less and less people.

prong two: quell with extreme prejudice the rights of citizens to protest by removing their access to due process, paving the road for political prisoners, like there used to be in South Africa. Sure, now its "suspected" terrorists, but how long until its anyone who disagrees with the administration? without access to legal counsel, the outside world and being held indefinitely and executed without trial, the US will have the ability to "disappear" citizens who are vocally antiadministration, and there won't be any way to prevent it since it will all be done in secret, with no protections.

prong three: rubber stamp the middle east, and then the world, in the US image. with prongs one and two in place, prong three will proceed without interference.

I know I'm extrapolating a bit, but you have to admit, everything is heading in this direction.

now, how will we know this plan is in place, or working in the coming days?

--elimination of civil liberties, weakening the ability of the citizens to stop the juggernaut
-- reshaping of the present character of the checks and balances system (like trying to stop filibustering), in such a way to advantage the executive branch over the other branches.
-- More and more "disappeared" people, along with executions in Guantanamo.
--

Also look for:
-- scenario: Bush loses the popular vote, again, and wins the electoral vote, but the chasm is wider, making it obvious the electoral college has been manipulated.
-- the rescinding of the two term presidency.
-- the permanence of US bases in Iraq as a base of operations, with the dropping of the MOAB on Syria or Iran, to "make a strong case" for submission to the US.

anyways, you get the idea.
Keep in mind, I'm just freeforming this, but I also think at least some of it is probably accurate, as far as strategy.
Feel free to discuss it, tear it apart, come up with your own, etc.

MindFad · Jul 23, 2004, 12:25 PM

Just warmin' 'em up for ya.

mikellanes · Jul 23, 2004, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by MacGorilla:
All the Democrats have to do is put someone reasonably charismatic and able to speak the issues as their candidates and I believe they'll win big. Whether or not Kerry meets these requirements is up in the air.

Hence the decision of Edwards?

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 02:47 PM

Since no one is saying that they will eat a sock if Bush wins, I guess you are all scared that Kerry will lose!!!!

mikellanes · Jul 23, 2004, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
Since no one is saying that they will eat a sock if Bush wins, I guess you are all scared that he will lose!!!!

I don't think anyone is that stupid to wager on the outcome of an election that is over 4 months way, especially with the problems of last years election... err, oh, wait... sorry...

CRASH HARDDRIVE · Jul 23, 2004, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by voyageur:
He has some other interesting predictions about which states will go for which candidate, and a new blue-red map which displays state size according to number of electoral votes, rather than actual size. It will be interesting to see how close he comes.

First off, I'm not making any actual predictions, such is pure folly at this stage.

But it is interesting. Once again it looks like Florida is going to be the do or die battleground if this chart is any indicator.

He has Florida going for Kerry, but currently it's barely squeaking by for Bush. If it remains, then combined with this guy's indicators Bush would win it.

*repeat: not an actual prediction, just pointing it out.*

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by mikellanes:
I don't think anyone is that stupid to wager on the outcome of an election that is over 4 months way, especially with the problems of last years election... err, oh, wait... sorry...

I am not stupid, I just know what will happen.

voodoo · Jul 23, 2004, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
Since no one is saying that they will eat a sock if Bush wins, I guess you are all scared that Kerry will lose!!!!

Trust me, if Shrubbie wins I'll feel far worse than eating a sock.

mydog8mymac · Jul 23, 2004, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by Troll:
My, my, my. What a silly boy you are! Okay, I challenge you to that. If Bush loses, I will contribute to the costs of having the MacNN'er who lives closest to you meet you to verify your consumption of 1 time sock.

Count me in as a contributer to that cause, I'll send a few founding fathers that way. �and it has to be a real sock, and probably should be an adult size.

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 03:55 PM

You know, if everyone was as confident that Kerry would win, they should offer to eat a sock too... Maybe I am the only one confident enough here?

xi_hyperon · Jul 23, 2004, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
You know, if everyone was as confident that Kerry would win, they should offer to eat a sock too... Maybe I am the only one confident enough here?

Nah. If Kerry loses, then Bush is far worse punishment than a sock could ever be.

BlackGriffen · Jul 23, 2004, 04:04 PM

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is instead of your sock? The Iowa Electronic Market has futures markets for all sorts of events. Including two markets for the general Presidential election.

BlackGriffen

Lerkfish · Jul 23, 2004, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
You know, if everyone was as confident that Kerry would win, they should offer to eat a sock too... Maybe I am the only one confident enough here?

Why would I eat a sock if Kerry won? You keep asking us to do that (reread your challenge carefully)

Just because you are willing to eat a sock does not mean I have no confidence in Kerry if I'm not as stupid as you.

djohnson · Jul 23, 2004, 04:35 PM

Sorry, I am in a good mood today. I guess a getting a new job and quitting the one you have does that to a person! I want someone to say that if Bush wins, they will eat a sock. That is the same as me saying is Kerry wins, I will eat a sock.

Wiskedjak · Jul 23, 2004, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
You know, if everyone was as confident that Kerry would win, they should offer to eat a sock too... Maybe I am the only one confident enough here?

Does it count as a loss for Kerry if Bush declares Martial Law and suspends the elections until terrorism has been defeated?

mikellanes · Jul 23, 2004, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by djohnson:
I am not stupid, I just know what will happen.

What does the crystal ball say in terms of electoral votes? And what proof are you going to put up about this sock business when the time comes?

MacGorilla · Jul 23, 2004, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by mikellanes:
Hence the decision of Edwards?

I think so.

xi_hyperon · Jul 23, 2004, 09:21 PM

If Bush wins, I hope someone will put a sock in his mouth.

Krusty · Jul 23, 2004, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by mikellanes:
Hence the decision of Edwards?

Yes ... and more.
Edwards is STRONG in the weak Bush states of NC, SC, VA (He actually beat Kerry outright in SC in the primaries). Plus .... he was the "2nd runner": makes sense to broaden the ticket's appeal with the person who was most different from Kerry (in many ways). Things are looking good for Kerry/Edwards, IMHO.

The only thing that worries me is the whole silver-spoon-skull-and-bones-yankee-liberal thing with Kerry. With the exception of JFK, when a Democrat gets elected its a Southern Democrat (Johnson, Carter, Clinton, .... Gore ... *cough*

)

Spliffdaddy · Jul 23, 2004, 11:13 PM

Edwards doesn't have much support in NC. Because that's where he's from. see also: Al Gore & Tennessee.

Krusty · Jul 23, 2004, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
Edwards doesn't have much support in NC. Because that's where he's from. see also: Al Gore & Tennessee.

You may be right about the support level in NC for Edwards (who's technically "from" SC but moved to NC at a young age). I still think he will strengthen the Dem ticket in NC (though maybe not enough to win the state). I think NC Dems will be more comfortable voting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket than, say, Kerry/Dean ( a two-yankee ticket would be a harder sell, IMHO).

Spliffdaddy · Jul 24, 2004, 12:13 AM

A 2-yankee ticket wouldn't go over very well anywhere in the "old south".

I do agree that Edwards will get far more support in NC than Dean would have. But Edwards is not exactly loved and admired in North Carolina. Seems there are very few governors in any state that are held in high regard.

lil'babykitten · Jul 24, 2004, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by xi_hyperon:
If Bush wins, I hope someone will put a sock in his mouth.