[NYCFarmboy]

Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Convention boosted voters' perceptions of John Kerry's leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what's happening with the electorate.

A Newsweek survey taken Thursday and Friday showed the Democrats with a lead of 49% to 42%, a four-point bounce compared with a poll taken three weeks earlier — the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll.

Analysts say the lack of a boost for Kerry may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say in the survey that they are confident they won't change their mind between now and the Nov. 2 election. That leaves little room for a candidate to gain support even when major events occur.





_Find this article at:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ll-kerry_x.htm


_

[BRussell]

All I can say is that I'm gonna love this. No matter who wins, it's going to be fun.

I love everything about it. Even the silly little attacks and responses. The media's absurd conventional wisdom. The polls. The october surprises. The convention bounces. The swing voter focus groups. The bus tours. The dueling campaign managers on Sunday morning. The talking points. The attack ads.

What's wrong with me?

[rambo47]

I heard on WBBR Radio (Bloomberg Radio New York) that Kerry has actually lost 2% in two different polls since the convention started. They attributed it in part to his talking about a "strong defense" and talk about "battling terrorism" sounding a little too much like Bush. Dunno, I never put any faith in polls anyway.

[Kitschy]

Originally posted by rambo47:
I heard on WBBR Radio (Bloomberg Radio New York) that Kerry has actually lost 2% in two different polls since the convention started. They attributed it in part to his talking about a "strong defense" and talk about "battling terrorism" sounding a little too much like Bush. Dunno, I never put any faith in polls anyway.

The whole convention sounded like it could have been a Republican convention. They may be trying a little too hard to reach for votes when they are going against the majority of their own party's delegates.

Also, from what I understand, at the Republican convention there are plans to have several liberal Republicans speak in order, I assume, to do the same thing the Dems tried to do: appeal to those other than their base constituency.

Both sides have to be very careful not to alienate their own base just to try to get votes from those on the other side of the fence.

[BasketofPuppies]

Others disagree.

Especially Newsweek.

[NYCFarmboy]

Originally posted by BasketofPuppies:
Others disagree.

Especially Newsweek.

I think the reason Kerry got no bounce (and has even went DOWN in the polls in some surveys) is that really his only base of support is the militant "HATE BUSH" crowd which doesn't really care about any issue other than espousing putrid hatred of the American President with a goal defeating Bush with any candidate no matter how flawed he is.

I think people in the United States are starting to realize that the Democratic Party made a big mistake nominating Kerry which is demonstrated by his incredibly poor performance in Boston in the polls.

Yes I'm sure Kerry got a big bounce in the polls in France after the convention, but not too many people in France vote in American Presidential Elections.



The issue of Gay marriage has exposed Kerry for what he is... a scumball who lacks any principles.

Kerry SUPPORTS banning gay marriage by constitutional amendment in Massachusetts. Thus kicking gay supporters of the Kerry campaign the teeth. I think that will cost him more votes than his campaign realizes. I've talked to a lot of gay friends of mine in NYC and in Indiana, and in Atlanta and in Miami........and after his endorcement of the Massachusetts Constitutional Ban on Gay marriage, they lost there "pro kerry" ferver. That really hurt Kerry in my opinion and demonstrated his "scumball" quality to a important base of support in the Democratic Party.

Yes a lot of gay organizations still support Kerry officially, however a telling sign is that a friend of mine does event planning in NYC. He knows of several gay fund raising events for Kerry that have quietly been dropped. The talk now in New York City is for Hillary in 2008.

[Kodachrome]

Originally posted by NYCFarmboy:
Yes a lot of gay organizations still support Kerry officially, however a telling sign is that a friend of mine does event planning in NYC. He knows of several gay fund raising events for Kerry that have quietly been dropped. The talk now in New York City is for Hillary in 2008.

Just what goes on at these gay fund raising events?

What is Hillary Clinton's position on Gay Marriage? we know Kerry is against gay marriage,.. but what is Hillary's official position?

[boots]

I think people already know who he is and what he's about. So I didn't expect a bounce. There was such a long period before the convention where he was already the nominee that the convention didn't really do anything. I am unaware of any challenger having that much time between locking the nomination and the convention. It makes sense that also that he may have seen a 2% flux since most of those polls have a larger margin of error...I don't expect to see much movement in the polls until October...and then it won't be much.

[Y3a]

Not since McGovern has a Democrat NOT gotten a boost after the convention. Heard that from Howard Fineman, who was on Imus this morning.

[Spliffdaddy]

I think there are just not very many 'undecided' voters in this election.

Not much room for either candidate to move up or down.

[xi_hyperon]

It's only the beginning of August. There's still the Republican convention, and plenty of time for someone on either side to screw up something. I wouldn't put much stock into the poll numbers yet.

[dcolton]

Originally posted by xi_hyperon:
It's only the beginning of August. There's still the Republican convention, and plenty of time for someone on either side to screw up something. I wouldn't put much stock into the poll numbers yet.

Although I would never put much stock in poll numbers. Polls are designed for people who are co-dependent upon what is perceived to be prevailing opinion.

[Millennium]

There aren't many swing voters this time around, frankly. If there's one thing this election isn't, it's dull; practically everyone has an opinion. Furthermore, a fair number of Kerry's "supporters" are simply Anything But Bush, and they've been going for Kerry ever since the first few primaries. In short, there is nothing that can be done at either convention except preaching to the choir; no one is sitting on the fence this time. Bush won't get a boost from the GOP convention either.

Frankly, at this point, Kerry no longer has control over who supports him; people have made up their minds one way or the other. The only way the numbers are going to change in any significant way is an event of cataclysmic proportions; Bush will have to do something good enough to turn Kerry supporters or bad enough to drive off his own supporters.

Will that happen? I don't know, and even if something does happen, there's still no way to tell which way it will go. An attack by al-Qaeda, for example, could drive people to Kerry as "a President which will make us safer", or drive them to Bush as "the President who saw us through 9/11 and will see us through this".

I'll say this much for Bush; elections involving him are never dull.