[dcolton]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/ma...QUESTIONS.html
macnn/ macnn

I find this interesting. Anyone familiar with his equation?

As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy.

My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5 percent of the two-party votes.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by dcolton:
Bush Landslide!

Just for clarity's sake, I don't think 57.5% would count as a landslide. I think for it to be a landslide, it would have to be 65+ %

[BlackGriffen]

Looking really good for Bush at the moment, not: 327 Kerry 211 Bush.

Long story short: there's still a lifetime, politically, between now and Nov. The debates, events in Iraq, etc can all still make the electorate swing wildly, or do nothing.

BlackGriffen

[djohnson]

Bush will win.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by BlackGriffen:
Long story short: there's still a lifetime, politically, between now and Nov. The debates, events in Iraq, etc can all still make the electorate swing wildly, or do nothing.

I can't believe how long the American elections are. They almost dominate a full quarter of the Presidential term.

[MindFad]

As Randi Rhodes has started on her show:

KERRY ... LANDSLIDE. (It's better if you hear the audio clip.)

I doubt Bush will win. Like, highly. I'd like to think—hope?—Americans are brighter than that.

[BlackGriffen]

Originally posted by Wiskedjak:
I can't believe how long the American elections are. They almost dominate a full quarter of the Presidential term.

It wasn't this long in the past. Here's what it boils down to: immense resources are necessary to launch the media campaign to get the standing in the polls necessary to get into the debates and such. Except in cases where a person is individually wealthy, that means fund raising. There are a number ways to do it, but it eventually boils down to the fact that people don't want to donate to an unsuccessful campaign. So, it's necessary to start early if you don't want your opponents to get so far ahead you can't raise funds later. Believe it or not, but the Presidential campaign started before last year. In early 2003, major fund raising was already under way in both parties, but it didn't get too much media attention because of how far away the Presidential elections were. The attention cycle started a little early, about a year ago, because of Howard Dean. People really start paying attention during the primaries. Winning early primaries has become a way to parlay victories into, you guessed it, more fund raising. Because of that, the early primaries have paramount importance, and have crept earlier and earlier in the year. I believe there's some law or rule ensconcing Iowa and NH as first and where they're at in order to cut off that trend.

So, long story short, it all boils down to the massive amounts of money necessary to win a primary and then the general election.

BlackGriffen

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by MindFad:
I doubt Bush will win. Like, highly. I'd like to think—hope?—Americans are brighter than that.

I think I will be more surprised (relieved) by a Kerry win than a Bush win.

[voyageur]

On the flip side, if Bush wins, he'll have to live with the consequences of his policies of his first term. After 4 more years, his misguided policies may have done so much harm that the Republican party will have trouble recovering for years to come.

[KaBlooey]

Originally posted by djohnson:
Bush will win.

Kerry will win. More importantly, Bush will lose. Don't underestimate (or BushSpeak: "misunderestimate") the plethora of citizens Bush has pissed off and are determined to vote him out of office. I've never seen anything like this, and I've been around a while. I also predict record voting turnouts.

[djohnson]

Originally posted by voyageur:
On the flip side, if Bush wins, he'll have to live with the consequences of his policies of his first term. After 4 more years, his misguided policies may have done so much harm that the Republican party will have trouble recovering for years to come.

misguided only to liberals

[djohnson]

Originally posted by MindFad:
As Randi Rhodes has started on her show:

KERRY ... LANDSLIDE. (It's better if you hear the audio clip.)

I doubt Bush will win. Like, highly. I'd like to think—hope?—Americans are brighter than that.

Such as how you spell "Floridia"?

[voyageur]

Originally posted by djohnson:
misguided only to liberals

Time will tell.

[djohnson]

So if Bush wins, are ya'll all going to leave the US?

[MindFad]

Originally posted by djohnson:
Such as how you spell "Floridia"?

That's on purpose there, Tex, but nice try at ... whatever you were trying to do.

So if Bush loses, are ya'll all going to leave the US?

I'd considered it, yeah. Will you all please leave when Kerry is elected?

[djohnson]

Originally posted by MindFad:
That's on purpose there, Tex, but nice try at ... whatever you were trying to do.



I'd considered it, yeah. Will you all please leave when Kerry is elected?

You claimed that you hoped Americans were brighter than that. But, it seemed that, without reading your mind, you could not spell Florida.

Oops, a mistake on the second part...

[CreepingDeth]

I'm not sure. Bush isn't my favorite, but he's the best choice.
Bush could benefit from the rising criticism of John Kerry.
Bush could suffer from a lower economy, although that's not likely since the economy isn't the main theme.
Bush could benefit from an attack, unfortunately.
Kerry could benefit from the media focusing on Bush instead of him.

I'm not going to be cheap like everyone else and say that choice Y will win because he's choice Y.

[PacHead]

Originally posted by djohnson:
Such as how you spell "Floridia"?

If all anti-Bush dudes are as bright as him, Bush will indeed win in a landslide.

[daimoni]

.

[voyageur]

Originally posted by CreepingDeath:
I'm not going to be cheap like everyone else and say that choice Y will win because he's choice Y.

Yes, you're definitely not cheap like the rest of us. And of course it's not cheap to hope for a terrorist attack, just to prove your "crazy socialist dad" wrong.

[MindFad]

That's on purpose there, Tex...

In case the dummies missed it.

Originally posted by voyageur:
Yes, you're definitely not cheap like the rest of us. And of course it's not cheap to hope for a terrorist attack, just to prove your "crazy socialist dad" wrong.

[CreepingDeth]

I hope Bush wins, but I'm not sure he will.
And no, you misread. I don't want a terrorist attack. If there ever was one, I think he'd realize what happened. Of course, I'm not sure there will be one, but everyone says September. Although the way the schools are run, they won't even tell us what happened until we have to ask our parents or check online, or watch the news.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by CreepingDeath:
I'm not sure. Bush isn't my favorite, but he's the best choice.
Bush could benefit from the rising criticism of John Kerry.
Bush could suffer from a lower economy, although that's not likely since the economy isn't the main theme.
Bush could benefit from an attack, unfortunately.
Kerry could benefit from the media focusing on Bush instead of him.

I'm not going to be cheap like everyone else and say that choice Y will win because he's choice Y.

well said

[RAILhead]

If Bush loses — if he loses — I think it will be because people voted, not because they like Kerry so much, but because they dislike Bush. The Dems will see this as a Victory™ and a Win™ but it won't be because Kerry is so compelling or his policies so well thought...it will simply be to get Bush out of office.

It's kind of like winning a silver medal as per Seinfeld. Silver is like being the first place loser. "Of all the people that lost, you were the first of that group: you're the number one loser."

Regardless, I truly hope Bush wins. Do I think he will? Depending upon how many of the people that dislike him so much vote to get him out, he may not — but if it were to come down to people voting that truly support the candidate and their policies/values, I think more votes would be cast for GW.

We'll see. November is a dog long way off...

Maury

[Demonhood]

I still think it's a toss up. It's too close with too long to go before election day. A real nail-biter.

a slight aside
Originally posted by CreepingDeath:
Although the way the schools are run, they won't even tell us what happened until we have to ask our parents or check online, or watch the news.

Would they keep it from you so you don't panic? Wouldn't parents be calling their kids anyway? I know everyone would have their phones on silent, but someone would start to notice when they get a call from their parents every 5 minutes for an hour straight.

[CreepingDeth]

On 9/11, they acted like it was a normal day. They didn't tell us anything, even when we knew something was up. Half our class left early because we lived near the Pentagon. It would have been nice if we were given a heads up.

[Millennium]

I don't claim to know who will win; I'm no psychic. But I'm willing to bet that whoever wins, it won't be a landslide. In fact, I can already see the probable outcome: once again the winner loses the popular vote but wins the electoral, and whoever loses will be up in arms about how "unfair" the Electoral College is, despite the fact that a county-by-county breakdown will show such a messed up pattern of votes as to give pause to even the staunchest popular-vote advocate.

[voodoo]

Originally posted by Millennium:
I don't claim to know who will win; I'm no psychic. But I'm willing to bet that whoever wins, it won't be a landslide. In fact, I can already see the probable outcome: once again the winner loses the popular vote but wins the electoral, and whoever loses will be up in arms about how "unfair" the Electoral College is, despite the fact that a county-by-county breakdown will show such a messed up pattern of votes as to give pause to even the staunchest popular-vote advocate.

It is rare that the winner of the U.S. presidential election wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college, no?

[BlackGriffen]

Originally posted by Millennium:
I don't claim to know who will win; I'm no psychic. But I'm willing to bet that whoever wins, it won't be a landslide. In fact, I can already see the probable outcome: once again the winner loses the popular vote but wins the electoral, and whoever loses will be up in arms about how "unfair" the Electoral College is, despite the fact that a county-by-county breakdown will show such a messed up pattern of votes as to give pause to even the staunchest popular-vote advocate.

Wouldn't it be funny as crap if Bush won the popular, but lost the electoral? Judging from the electoral-vote.com map, Bush's support in the deep red states is insanely strong. Kerry's edge, however, isn't quite as strong his the deep blue states. I could easily see Kerry winning the college and losing the popular in this scenario, even though the most recent Zogby poll (the most recent major poll that I know of) gives Kerry a solid lead (I define solid as outside of the margin of error, FYI). Just barely, if Nader is included. It is my understanding that he hasn't made it on the ballot in all 50 states, so it is likely to be somewhere in between.

BlackGriffen

[Wiskedjak]

Originally posted by RAILhead:
If Bush loses — if he loses — I think it will be because people voted, not because they like Kerry so much, but because they dislike Bush. The Dems will see this as a Victory™ and a Win™ but it won't be because Kerry is so compelling or his policies so well thought...it will simply be to get Bush out of office.

From my perspective, that's exactly how Bush won; not because the voters liked Bush so much, but because they disliked Gore.

[KaBlooey]

Well, whatever...but here's more grist for the mill:

What if the 2004 presidential election isn't even close?

[Spliffdaddy]

Originally posted by MindFad:
As Randi Rhodes has started on her show:

KERRY ... LANDSLIDE. (It's better if you hear the audio clip.)

I doubt Bush will win. Like, highly. I'd like to think—hope?—Americans are brighter than that.

Clinton got re-elected.

I rest my case.

[Spliffdaddy]

Originally posted by Wiskedjak:
I think I will be more surprised (relieved) by a Kerry win than a Bush win.

Just stand behind the line and let the real Americans vote. We'll let you know who was chosen.

[zigzag]

Originally posted by voodoo:
It is rare that the winner of the U.S. presidential election wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college, no?

Yes, in fact, that's one of many excellent reasons for getting rid of it: it's not needed, and doesn't serve any apparent purpose, much less its original purpose. Its effects have been rendered arbitrary. But we've had that debate many times . . .

[CreepingDeth]

Yeah, EUropeans and the such have no business in our elections.
Vote in your own damn country.

[Millennium]

Originally posted by voodoo:
It is rare that the winner of the U.S. presidential election wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college, no?

Counting the 2000 elections, it has happened four times, or a little less than once in every ten elections.

However, for the electoral and popular votes to disagree takes some very strange voting patterns. 2000 provides an interesting example, actually. Throw out the map of red and blue states; break it down by district, and the picture really gets weird. Even the blue states have large areas of red, and even the red states have large blue spots, but the blue is almost entirely concentrated in the major cities. What happened in 2000 was quite literally an EC-advocate's worst nightmare: a handful of cities pretty much swept the popular vote.

[CreepingDeth]

But popular vote is mob rule, and alot easier to mess up, to be.

[BlackGriffen]

I love Pollkatz! Lot's and lots of analyses of the various polls on the site. Including another electoral map, a projection of Kerry's electoral votes (including an explaination of how he calculates the state level numbers), and the classic Bush disapproval raw data graph.

BlackGriffen

[Zimphire]

I know who DOESN'T want him to win...

[CreepingDeth]

John Kerry. Ask the board, terrorist love Bush for attacking him.