The oil & gas crash and you
Fuel shortages soon
Summary:
The world’s oil and gas wells are running empty.
• After a hundred years of exploration and extraction very little new oil and gas is being found. See graph. Today, for every barrel of oil discovered, the world consumes four barrels.
• When energy get scarcer and dearer there is very serious disruption of transport, industry, business, government and private life. Serious shortages and disruptions
• Globally, 90% of transport (road/rail/air/sea) depends on oil. So does industrial & farm equipment (food).
• Much natural gas is used by power generating stations to generate electricity. Gas shortages can therefore trigger grid outages that disable computers, communications and electronic control equipment.
• More than 500,000 oil & gas-based products will also become scarcer and dearer: plastics, clothing, asphalt, tyres, medicines, sealants, inks.
Alternative energy sources cannot compensate
• Hydrogen is not the answer because it is actually made from natural gas, which itself is running out.
• Hydroelectricity, coal, nuclear, windmills, solar etc. cannot be increased sufficiently in time to prevent seriously disruptive shortages of energy.
Difficulties adapting
• Changeovers take years. Our immense existing infrastructure was built assuming plentiful fuels. (Cars, globalization, suburbs, arctic/tropical cities.)
• Changeovers demand fuels to implement them too.
• Coal, nuclear, oilsands etc involve serious pollution of air/water/soil. They use oil/gas/electricity to exploit them.
• The energy decline is strange, unwelcome news to the public. There is confusion, resistance and delay.
Evidence of decline of oil and gas
Some people still say oil and gas are abundant, and that money and technology will meet needs for decades. But oil and gas industry data indicates:
- A clear, 40-year trend of less and less discovery of oil
- Reported serious decline of oil and gas in regions including USA, the North Sea, Norway, New Zealand.
- Global oil supply is 80% from pre-1972 wells
- Steadily decreasing output from the existing wells.
- Big military takeovers of oil & gas resources.
- Misleading public reporting of oil inventories, by oil extracting countries and political interests.
When, and how bad, and where
North America’s gas supply: Start of decline: about 2003 - 2004. Electricity is 17% gas-powered. Grid blackouts, brownouts in North American workplaces, cities, homes. Importing gas is limited by lack of ships, terminals, security, willingness of suppliers. Impacts: Global internet, trade, economy.
Global oil supply: ‘Conventional’ (easy-to-extract) oil: Decline from about 2005 on. Increased prices not only for fuels, but all goods and services because all require energy to create and deliver them. ‘Unconventional oil’ (Expensive deep sea, polar, etc): Decline about 3% a year from 2009 on.
Price increased by fierce global competition for oil.
Duration of decline: Forever. Oil and gas took millions of years to form, in extremely rare conditions.
Barrels consumed globally/year: 28 billion (2002).
Barrels discovered globally per year: 6 billion of “conventional” plus 8 billion deep sea, oil sands etc. Discovery of oil fluctuates each year, but peaked in the 1960s, and has declined at an average of about 9 billion barrels per year over the past 40 years.
Billion barrels Discovered Extracted Consumed
(USA 15yr.1977-91 5 45 92
(World 10yr.1982-91) 91. 221 221
Those figures, & the following graph of discoveries are at: HYPERLINK "http://dieoff.org/page85.htm"
http://dieoff.org/page85.htm and HYPERLINK
http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.html HYPERLINK "http://dieoff.org/page90.htm"
http://dieoff.org/page90.htm
Proportion of global energy provided by oil in developed countries: 40% (1997)
The “invest more to find it” idea:
Yet-to-be located oil, globally: After a century of exploration, the earth’s geology and oil resources are generally well known. When the fields are emptying, money only helps to scrape out the hard-to-reach remainder. There are 210 billion barrels left to discover and 1000 billion barrels left to extract. This is indicated by the 40 year decline in discovery of oil. No amount of money will create oil that simply isn’t there.
Number of oil wells already in world/USA: More than 500,000. In USA, 80% of the wells now produce less than three barrels a day.
Percentage of oil recovered from a typical oil well: 20% to 60% . It relates primarily to the density of the oil. You get less from a heavy oil than a light one because it sticks in the reservoir.
“Technology will solve it” idea
Challenge to technology: To compensate for the expected 3% oil decline (at today’s 28 billion barrels a year), create and install, by year 2009, permanent supplies of portable energy, equivalent to 660 million barrels of oil a year. Then as oil keeps declining forever, increase this new energy it until it replaces 40% of the world’s energy supply (28 billion barrels a year) OR reduce energy demand equivalently as the global population increases by almost a quarter million people every day.
The “better efficiency” idea
Increases in efficiency usually fail to reduce consumption (More m.p.g. just causes people to travel more or buy two cars, or other goods unless they are personally determined to reduce energy consumption.)
What about nuclear power?
Nuclear supplies 16% of the world’s electricity.
Its ability to soften the oil & gas crash is problematic:
- Past accidents. Risk of more, and terrorism.
- Many more reactors would be needed at huge cost and against local opposition. Tons of radioactive materials to transport at risk to public.
- Nuclear waste disposal is still the major,
unresolved problem, especially breeder reactors producing plutonium a nuclear weapon/terrorist raw material, half-life contamination is 24,000 years. All abandoned reactors are radioactive for decades or millenia.
- Nuclear is not directly suitable for aircraft and vehicles. Adapting nuclear to make hydrogen or other fuels is be a huge, costly, energy-demanding project.
- Nuclear fusion is still not available, after 40 years’ research and billions of dollars invested.
Natural gas
Proportion of global energy provided by gas: 20% of global energy supply (1997).
Natural gas is also running short: Regional decline is already apparent e.g. North America. Demand in North America is outstripping supply as power utilities take the remaining gas to generate electricity. Gas is not suited for existing jet aircraft, ships, vehicles, and equipment for agriculture and other products. Conversion to gas consumes large amounts of energy and money. Natural gas also does not provide the huge array of chemical by-products that we currently get from oil.
Hydro-electric
Present use: 2.3% of global energy supply (1997). Many rivers are already exploited.
As a replacement for oil: Very minor compared with 40% provided at present by oil. Unsuitable for aircraft and the present 800 million existing fuel-powered cars.
Coal
Current global use: 24% of global energy supply.
As a replacement for oil: Is 50% to 200% heavier than oil per energy unit. Bulky and dirty. Expansion of coal mining causes land ruin, and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Hard to fine-control the rate of burn (oil/gas is easy), therefore is used in power stations to make electricity, wasting half of its energy content. Present coal-mining machinery and transportation runs not on coal, but on oil-based fuels..
Large pollution & environmental problems: A single coal-fired station can produce a million tons of solid waste each year. Burning coal in homes pollutes air with acrid smog containing acid gases and particles. Smog, greenhouse gases, acid rain.
Liquid fuels from coal: Major pollution, very inefficient, and huge amounts of water required.
Solar and wind
Global solar use: About 0.006% of global energy supply. Energy varies constantly with weather or day/night. Not storable or portable energy like oil or natural gas so unsuited for present vehicles and industry. Batteries bulky, expensive, wear out in 5-10 years. Photovoltaic solar equipment (US$4/watt) is about 15% efficient, giving about 100 watts of the 1 kW per square metre exposed to bright sunshine (enough for one light bulb). A solar water panel array can deliver 50% to 85% of a home’s hot water though. Using some of our precious remaining crude oil as fuel to manufacture solar & wind equipment may be wise.
Global wind power use: 0.07% of 1990 global energy supply. As with solar, energy varies greatly with weather, and is not portable or storable like oil and gas. Each wind turbine from Denmark produces an average of 698 kW averaged over a year.
Hydrogen
Current global use: US (only) 1998 consumption is 0.01% of global energy.
As a replacement for oil: Hydrogen is actually manufactured from natural gas, which is running short. Hydrogen is therefore an energy “carrier” not a source. It can be produced in other ways, such as electrolysis, but always with a loss of the energy needed to do that. Usually it is better to simply use the original energy directly.
Other sources of energy
Options: Shale, tar sand, coalbed methane, ethanol, biomass (from vegetation), etc.
Effectiveness as replacements for oil: Huge investment in research and infrastructure to exploit them, plus large amounts of now-expiring oil supply. A major problem is that they cannot be exploited before oil and gas shocks cripple attempts to bring them on line. Also, the rate of extraction is far too slow to meet the huge global energy demand.
How it will affect us
Food supply depends on oil and gas
• Food grains now contain between 4 and 10 calories of fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of solar energy. Example: 4% of USA’s energy budget is used to grow food, while 10 to 13 percent is needed to process it and transport it onto plates.
• Fertilizers are made from natural gas. Grain yield without fossil fuel support can fall from 130 bushels/acre down to 30 bushels/acre. The worsening fuel shortages will make agriculture increasingly expensive and land-needy. Localizing agriculture closer to cities will help, as will more-vegetarian diets.
Percentage of US grain used to feed cattle: 70%
Efficiency: The meat feeds 1/5 as many people as the grain could.
Number of cats & dogs in USA: 131 million
Food given to pets: Nth. American pet food business is $30 billion/yr, and is growing.
“Future food” being consumed by using gasoline in vehicles: Gasoline consumed ‘now’ will deprive future agriculture of energy for producing food. Below are examples of how much “future food” a 30 mile-per-gallon vehicle is “eating” now. Also shown is the heavy physical labour humans will have to do in future when gasoline is unavailable for farm/industrial/office/home machinery:
Bread, 1 kg loaf = 6 miles= one slice per 422 yards
That 1/5 gallon=human heavy farm labour for 23 hrs
Beef, 1 kg = consumed by driving 76.2 miles
That 2.5 gallon=human heavy farm labour 300 hrs
Canned corn 1 kg= consumed by driving 5.4 miles
Again, 1/5 gallon=human heavy farm labour ~20 hrs
Oil for transportation
Automobiles, globally: 800 million
Automobiles, USA: 132 million
Trucks (all types, in USA): 1.5 million
Buses: (all types, in USA): more than 654,000
Locomotives: (USA) 26,000
World aircraft fleet: 11,000 aircraft more than 100 passengers. All 11,000 designed for oil-based fuel.
World shipping: 85,000 ships in world.
Decked fishing boats in the world: 1.2 million
Globalization: Will end. (Fuel costs & scarcity).
Oil for industry
Industry, example: Construction industry example: Energy to build an energy-efficient home is equivalent to 6,500 gallons of gasoline.
Number of by-products of oil: Over 500,000 including fertilisers, medicines, lubricants, plastics (computers, phones, shower curtains, disposables, toys, etc.), asphalt (roading and roofs), insulation, glues/paints/ caulking, modern synthetic rubber tires and boots, carpets, synthetic fabrics/clothing, stockings, insect repellent.
City drinking water, govt services
Number of cities in the world: over 55,000
Services to consider: Water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police,
fire services. National defense (land, sea, air). Possibility of wars over remaining oil.
Economy and employment
International oil import costs: Sharp rises (increasing global competition for dwindling oil & gas of five Middle-East countries and former Soviet Union.). International tensions.
National debt, inflation: Money goes out of country, to oil producers. Money gets scarce. Interest/mortgages rise. Government prints more money to pay overseas energy bills. Money devalues. Inflation. Prices rise.
Poverty: Public, and businesses become poorer paying higher energy costs, and taxes.. Less spending, less sales.
Welfare costs up: Therefore taxes up. Pensions for aging/disabled reduced, and devalued by inflation..
Migration: People will migrate away from hardship into less uncomfortable areas. Regionally, globally.
Other serious quality-of-life aspects
Heating and cooling: In cold regions oil heats buildings (burned as fuel in homes or in oil-fired electric power stations). In hot areas oil power provides air conditioning. As natural gas is substituted for oil, the gas price will rise too.
Smog: Energy price and shortages will increase wood and coal burning in homes, increasing city smog.
Why public warning is so late
Very misleading reports of actual stocks of oil:
(a) By firstly understating discoveries, and then later overstating discoveries, oil companies have given the false, but pleasing impression of an increasing discovery trend. Investors respond accordingly, and finance more exploration.
(b) The seven major oil-extracting countries have for years reported unchanged reserves (even though they were extracting and selling billions of barrels of oil, and that the reserves would therefore be less each year). See table of “spurious reserve revisions”.
(c) In 1988 five of those countries claimed they each had about twice as much reserve oil as in 1987. See
HYPERLINK
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif
(d) The most important fact to focus on is that, in the confusion, the public perceives an increasing discovery trend while the discovery rate has drastically declined.
OPEC countries depend on income from exports:
OPEC countries need to earn as much oil revenue as possible to support rapidly growing populations where the public health care, education and other services are provided free, from oil revenues, not by taxes. See table of reserves:
What you can do
Personal preparations: Reduce energy dependence of family, home, lifestyle. The less fuels and goods you consume, the less affected you will be. Live simply as possible.
Workplace: Observe, reduce energy need.
Talk with family, friends: Workmates, neighbourhood, city, governments. The ideal use for remaining oil and mineral reserves is in industries that create inexhaustible alternative energy equipment like windmills, solar water heaters, biomass (vegetation that creates fuels), etc.
Share your feeling with others. Try to stay positive and active rather than ignore it or blame people for it. Where there’s life there’s hope, esp. if we collaborate and are creative. “It’s not that new”. Humans have always faced hardships, and many among us do so constantly now.
Learn from them.
Emergency measures to consider:
- Alert the public so people understand the energy decline and cooperate to adapt to it. This includes alerting your city council and local media, the government. Everyone needs to collaborate, at all levels.
- Prepare the community for conserving and rationing of dwindling fuels & oil/gas-derived products.
- Discontinue projects that assume abundant fuel, such as road widening, overseas trade
- Re-localize life, business. Un-globalize
- Relocate food production nearer to cities
- Population control to prevent children being born into extremely harsh conditions that seem likely, and to conserve soon-scarce resources for those already alive.
- Reconsider immigration, which adds load.
- Strengthen the police and army to deal with social chaos & to control distribution of supplies.
- Alert national leaders to organize well against this major threat that faces us all.
More information
Documented evidence, key websites
• A web version of this leaflet is available at HYPERLINK "http://www.geocities.com/RunningOnEmptyNZ"
www.geocities.com/RunningOnEmptyNZ
• The full, 12-page version showing sources and authorities can be downloaded there too.
• The oil and gas die-off is explained at HYPERLINK "http://www.hubbertpeak.com"
www.hubbertpeak.com, and HYPERLINK "http://www.dieoff.org"
www.dieoff.org
• HYPERLINK "http://www.oilcrash.com"
www.oilcrash.com is a NZ-based site
• Dr. Richard Duncan’s important site about outages of the US electric grid is
HYPERLINK "http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm"
www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/olduvai2000.htm
Major listing of documents and websites
HYPERLINK "http://quasar.physik.unibas.ch/~fisker/401/oil/hubbheir.html"
http://quasar.physik.unibas.ch/~fisk.../hubbheir.html
Discussion forum - Technical/scientific: HYPERLINK
http://www.egroups.com/group/energyresources www.egroups.com/group/energyresources
Discussion forum-Implications, action: HYPERLINK "http://www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmptyNZ2"
www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmptyNZ2
Author of this sheet: Bruce Thomson, moderator of RunningOnEmptyNZ2 forum
Most of the sources of the data in this sheet are specified in the longer 12-page version HYPERLINK "http://www.geocities.com/RunningOnEmptyNZ/OCAY19.doc "
www.geocities.com/RunningOnEmptyNZ/OCAY19.doc
There are no political or commercial allegiances associated with this document.
It was created as a personal enquiry, and in the public interest. This version: Nov 2003.
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