I know this is late, but the thought occurred to me a few days ago and I didn't follow up on it.
With every major leader in the al Qaeda organization who is captured, wounded or killed, the person taking his place is less experienced and less effective than the person before him. New, untested, unsure, he has to establish his leadership and gain a hard won ability to accurately assess battlefield and 'enemy' actions.
It's all very difficult when you have the combined coalition forces hot on your trail night and day and your organization is (allegedly) running out of money.
Here, American forces kill 20 terrorists including the #2 AQ guy in that area near the Syrian border.
Hmm...why would he and 19 of his guys be THERE? Could it be because he is smuggling jihadists into Iraq from outside the country???
http://billroggio.com/archives/2005/...eda_comman.php
September 26, 2005
al Qaeda Commander and 20 Terrorists Killed in Raid
By Bill Roggio
The Coalition continues to conduct targeted strikes on al Qaeda in the Qaim region along the Syrian border. A safe house in the town of Al 'Ushsh, which is about two miles from Qaim, was destroyed. Abu Nasir, who according to CENTCOM was believed to be “a senior al Qaeda in Iraq foreign fighter facilitator and the alleged new al Qaeda in Iraq Emir of Karabilah” was among an estimated twenty terrorists killed in the attack.
Abu Nasir's tenure as al Qaeda Emir of the Qaim region was short-lived. He follows in the footsteps of Abu Ali, who was confirmed killed during a targeted airstrike in Haditha on September 18. Command in the Qaim region, like that in the Mosul region, is becoming a difficult job to retain.
Coalition intelligence in western Anbar appears to be improving, as senior al Qaeda leaders and large cells have been the targets of numerous successful operations. Col. Stephen Davis, the commander of the Marines Regimental Combat Team 2 states that the recent push along the Euphrates is the direct result of intelligence gains; “The buildup is driven by the fact that intelligence pulls us where the threat is… We always go where the intel drives us.”
Whether the operations in and around Qaim are beginning to achieve the desired result of disrupting al Qaeda’s organization as has been done in northern Iraq in the Tal Afar-Qaim region remains to be seen. As the terrorist’s area of operations shrink, they are likely to congregate in the areas where they are most comfortable, and attack from these areas. A greater density of terrorists means a greater pool of talent to draw from, so there is very likely much additional work to be done to whittle down al Qaeda’s command structure in Anbar.
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