It's way too long. You shouldn't read it. But I am done with my school finals and felt inspired by 3 cups of coffee to articulate my thoughts. Here you go...
IRAQ: Al-Maliki has been working to become the new Shiite Dictator of Iraq against all US intentions and interests. If the US works against him, it has no other partners to work with and civil war is inevitable in a country with a Shiite majority. If it works with him, Al-Maliki and the Iranians will eventually push the US out of the country. At this point the best the US can do is not piss Iraq’s leadership off and make them a devoted enemy. The best we can do is build some kind of goodwill (and intelligence assets) before we leave. We tried to use him, he’s using us. The momentum is on his side – he will use us to maintain stability long enough to establish control, and then ask us to leave.
IRAN: The enemy of their enemy is their friend. They have nothing to lose in supporting a Shiite Iraq. And being the stronger power, Iran could conceivably take Iraq overtly or covertly once the US leaves. Iran is known to fund terrorism throughout the Middle East, and the major fear is that any oil revenue flowing from Iraq to Iran empowers Iran to commit more terrorism worldwide. But there are worse outcomes (see USA below).
ISRAEL: Whatever happens, Israel will get what it deserves. Nothing the West does is ultimately going to change its fate. US Support of Israel is little more than a dare: if a radical Arab nation attacks Jerusalem they give us an excuse to wage war on them. It’s a bullshit alliance serving our long-term imperial goals for Arab oil. The joke is that everyone knows it, the Israelis most of all. This is the shameful truth that undermines everything the US does in the Middle East, despite American naivete.
SAUDI ARABIA: Is slowing disengaging from the US and turning toward Arab alliances. Its culture is incompatible with the democratic/westernized Iraq that the US envisions, so it is digging in Muslim Style. It is the weathervane that has suddenly shifted direction – and it’s pointing at a firestorm.
USA: Right now US policy is to keep Iraq as THE battleground in the war of Western vs. Arab values. The longer the US stays, the more introspection created in the arab world, the more divisions develop, and the greater the demand for democratic processes to develop. Staying in Iraq provides a sphere of influence that keeps Iran somewhat contained. Staying in Iraq builds more intelligence networks in the region. By thinking they can drive us out of Iraq, terrorists are more attracted to attacking there than attacking US soil. And lastly, we imagine keeping Iraq oil out of terrorist hands restricts their anti-western terrorist projects. But if we overstay our welcome we will we piss off the region, and other arab nations will pitch in their oil money, anyway. And disinvest in the US. Iran will then have silent approval to act on behalf of arab interests.
WAR RATIONALE: The US presence is predicated on 2 primary assumptions as far as I can tell. 1) Now that we’ve nearly unified the entire muslim world against us, the US can’t afford this union to formalize (EU-style). 2) The muslim world, in general, holds a value system that threatens world stability. In its current form it is a cancer that must be removed from the body, or transformed into something else. We are capable of remaining in Iraq right now for one reason only: the arab nations distrust one another. The moment they feel a strong alliance against the US can hold them together, we will be asked to leave Iraq. It will be a polite request – the first time.
REPUBLICANS: The Republican citizens in the US are being pulled along by a tangent: the idea that the innocent masses in Iraq (and possibly Iran) do not really subscribe to a jihad and just want to live a peaceful life. US conservatives want to manipulate/”empower” the moderate Arab masses to recreate a democratic/westernized world. And most Republicans are ok with that. Make them democratic whether they like it or not – the world’s needs outweigh cultural preferences. The problem is Repub inability to accept the limits of US power to force these huge cultural changes, and they too easily discount the opportunity to accept more realistic short term changes. “You can’t always get what you want…but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need.” In their unwillingness to compromise their vision, Repubs are willing to blow the whole thing up to WWIII. The fact is the arab world does not, on the whole, see western democracy as a successful experiment. “How could they not love our freedoms?!?!” The irony is that the typical conservative Christian republican has a long list of what’s wrong with American culture, and yet is all too eager to export this “freedom” to the Arab world.
DEMOCRATS: Typically don’t see the big picture. Listen, guys: As Harvey Danger says “Only cream and bastards rise.” Imagine Bush without a system of checks and balances – that’s what most of the world faces. Democrats would like to believe that if we retreat to our corner the boxing match will be over. That the other boxer will somehow have an epiphany and realize “Hey, I’m tired, let’s call it a tie and be friends.” You may not see it as a fight to be won – but the paranoid, militaristic dictators do. You want environmentalism to work? Then you need stable, sympathetic partners worldwide. Want human rights for mankind? You gotta be willing to give some blood to the cause. If all you want is a selfish utopia surrounded by ocean, you’re living a pipe dream. An isolationist, “keep my hands clean” foreign policy is either hypocritical or naïve. Without French military help in the US Revolutionary War, we probably wouldn’t be a country enabling your values at all. Positive Visualization isn’t going to create benevolent Arab partners. Pelosi’s trip to Syria was a positive effort, but was worthless without a powerful military backing her up.
Let the Republican “Warrior Caste” bang their drums, and meanwhile the Democratic “Altruistic Dreamers” should be shaking hands and seeking partners. Each party should do its part and stop pretending its lopsided worldview can be wholly impressed upon reality. And when we’re asked to leave Iraq, we should just leave
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