[turtle777]

Interesting moves. While I expected continued volatility, the latest strength in the USD was a bit a surprise in terms of how fast it happened.

However, since the US government is not changing their policies (more debt, more money printing), this will be a temporary move.

I'm happy to be able to add to my gold, silver and commodity positions at a lower price.

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

January 4, 2010

CAD: $0.963
GBP: $1.612
Euro: $1.442
Yen: $0.0108
Yuan: $0.146

The US$ continues the slide... As a consequence, oil is now $81.15 per barrel.

March 17, 2010

CAD: $0.989
GBP: $1.528
Euro: $1.373
Yen: $0.0111
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $82.32
Gold: $1124.48

Nobody likes the UK £ these days....

[Big Mac]

Sterling briefly dipped below $1.48 in heavy selling weeks ago before regaining support at $1.50. . .

[Eug]

I guess the US dollar has shown at least a little bit of strength... against the Euro and UKP. However, my view gets distorted because the Canadian dollar is still gaining on it, because of oil.

That's annoying for where I live, since Ontario is heavily manufacturing based. That's usually a good thing, as opposed to just being a resource exporter, but the problem is that our primary market is the US. Everything from us seems so expensive now for American buyers.

[OldManMac]

Dollar, schmollar. It won't matter soon.

China: the coming costs of a superbubble / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com

[Eug]

I do agree with the idea that China is not doing itself any great favours by artificially devaluating their yuan, and keeping its growth rate artificially high.

They need to:

1) Let the yuan float more. They don't need it to be free-floating, but they need some real movement upwards against the US dollar... esp. when the US dollar is falling against other currencies.
2) Increase support for workers. They are a communist govt. after all. Ideologically, such a govt. should be the first to support the rights of workers, but they are almost treated like the Untouchables nowadays.
3) Increased attention to environmental issues. They already get almost a free pass from the western countries. Some effort to clean up their factories would make them look good to the world, and would make the western countries look good for "successful peaceful lobbying" or whatever, while at the same time would help tame their overzealous development.
4) Try to make a real attempt at controlling corruption. I met a guy who was a Chinese communist party member, and who worked his way up to the top of a small dept in the government. A few years later I met him again and asked him what he was doing. He had left his position and gone into the private sector. I asked why. He said it was because he couldn't reconcile the requirement for corruption to work in government. ?!?! It turns out that earn something close to a half decent living, he states that basically all higher level administrators (and lower level administrators for that matter) take bribes these days. At least in the private sector one can earn an honest living, even if that honest living means playing hard ball in business deals on a regular basis.

None of this is easy, but it also seems to me that there is no real effort to try to do much of the above. I find it interesting. The Chinese govt in the 1970s had absolute control over absolutely everything. The Chinese govt in 2010 has gone to the other extreme, with an ultracapitalistic bent that is far beyond anything the US or Canada has seen in the last 50 years, lack of democratic process notwithstanding.

[Eug]

China economic chiefs at odds over yuan

China displayed new divisions on Tuesday over how to respond to mounting U.S. pressure to let its exchange rate rise.

Two new advisers to the central bank called for the yuan to resume its gradual appreciation, but they were slapped down by Commerce Minister Chen Deming, who said a stronger currency would not wipe out China's trade surplus with the United States.

“It has been proved both in theory and practice that the appreciation of a nation's currency provides little help for improving the balance of payments,” Mr. Chen said in a detailed defence of China's trade policy.

---

I get the impression the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has its head in the sand.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

March 17, 2010

CAD: $0.989
GBP: $1.528
Euro: $1.373
Yen: $0.0111
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $82.32
Gold: $1124.48

Nobody likes the UK £ these days....

April 6, 2010

CAD: $1.000 <- parity
GBP: $1.519
Euro: $1.338
Yen: $0.0107
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $86.17
Gold: $1138.80

This popped up on XE.com page today:

Rate Explanation
This rate means that the CAD is worth more than the USD.
Each US Dollar is worth 0.99992 Canadian Dollars.
Each Canadian Dollar is worth 1.00008 US Dollars.

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by Eug 

April 6, 2010

CAD: $1.000 <- parity, eh?

Fixed!

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Dork. 

Fixed!

Uh, you sure it's not par-eh-ty ?

-t

[olePigeon]

Heh. The Yuan $0.146, always. China's being accused of artificially controlling the value of their currency instead of leaving it to the currency market.

Edit: Helps if I read the previous comments.

[Andy8]

via Bloomberg:

China Considers Yuan Trading Against Ruble, Won, Official Says

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- China is considering allowing the yuan to trade against the Russian ruble, South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit to promote its use in cross-border trade, an official at the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said.

The People’s Bank of China is investigating the possibility of offering new foreign-exchange pairs, said an official at the Shanghai-based interbank exchange, a subsidiary of the central bank. He asked not to be identified as authorities have yet to make a final decision. Traders now can buy or sell the yuan against the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, the Hong Kong dollar and the British pound.

“That would be a further step towards making the yuan an international currency,” said Liu Dongliang, a Shenzhen-based foreign-exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank Co., the country’s fifth-largest lender by market value. “The move would help foreign companies buy or sell the Chinese yuan at lower costs.”

China is seeking greater use of the yuan to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar after Premier Wen Jiabao said last month he is “worried” about holdings of assets denominated in the greenback. From July, the government started allowing companies in Shanghai and four cities in the southern province of Guangdong to use yuan in cross-border trade with Hong Kong, Macau and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

President Barack Obama will keep pressing China to end the yuan’s 21-month-old peg to the U.S. dollar and likely will bring up the topic when he meets Chinese President Hu Jintao next week, spokesman Robert Gibbs said. Executives at Chinese banks have supported a stronger currency to allow it to play an increased role in global trade and to spur growth in financial markets.

Critical Meetings

China’s currency has been held at around 6.83 since July 2008, after appreciating 21 percent in the previous three years. Twelve-month non-deliverable forwards advanced 0.2 percent to 6.6346 per dollar yesterday, reflecting bets the currency will climb 2.9 percent from the spot rate in the coming year.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner four days ago announced the postponement of the April 15 deadline for an annual foreign-exchange policy review, which may have resulted in China being labeled a currency manipulator. He said meetings over the next three months will be “critical” to bringing policy changes that lead to a more balanced global economy.

Expectations that China’s currency will appreciate drove yuan trade settlements to 7 billion yuan ($1 billion)in the first two months of this year, almost twice the 3.6 billion yuan in the second half of 2009, Zhang Yanling, vice chairman of Beijing-based Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s biggest foreign- currency lender, said in a March 19 interview.

“If the yuan is expected to be a strong currency, neighboring countries will prefer to hold the yuan instead of the dollar,” she said.

Mounting Reserves

Since December 2008, China has set up 650 billion yuan worth of swap agreements with Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Belarus and Argentina, broadening access to the yuan. The central bank has also proposed expanding the use of International Monetary Fund depository receipts in reserves instead of dollars.

China’s dollar purchases to maintain the currency link have driven currency reserves to $2.4 trillion. Chinese investors held $889 billion of Treasuries on Jan. 31, the biggest overseas holdings of such debt.

It will take 15 to 20 years to make the yuan an international currency, Dai Xianglong, chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund and a former central bank governor, said April 2.

--Judy Chen. Editors: James Regan, Sandy Hendry

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Andy8 

via Bloomberg:

China Considers Yuan Trading Against Ruble, Won, Official Says

Yeah, saw that. I hope it comes true, both for China's sake, and for everyone else's sake.

P.S. I just cashed in some US stock ETFs. After the foreign exchange commission (1%?) to convert it to Canadian $, I got less in CAD$ than I sold it for in US$.

I'm moving some to CAD stock dividend ETFs. My prediction is the US$ is going to continue to fall further, esp. in comparison to the CAD$.

[Andy8]

Eug - can you guys buy CNY to hold in your bank accounts, like other foreign currencies?

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Andy8 

Eug - can you guys buy CNY to hold in your bank accounts, like other foreign currencies?

I'm not sure if you can just buy CNY, unless you have a Chinese bank account.

You can buy CNY ETFs, which use derivatives to mirror the development of the CNY.

Ultimate Guide To China Yuan ETF Investing | ETF Database

-t

[Andy8]

We can buy and hold CNY in our HK bank accounts.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Andy8 

We can buy and hold CNY in our HK bank accounts.

Well, yeah, you're in HK.

-t

[Andy8]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Well, yeah, you're in HK.

-t

Well the CNY will appreciate sooner than later, would have been nice if you guys could share in some gain too.

[Eug]

I'm not much of a forex trader. I'd rather just buy stocks in that country. Actually I haven't. I just own a broad ETF which includes some pacific rim countries... and none of those include mainland China. There are some Hong Kong holdings though, like HSBC, but then again, I think they're actually held in UK pounds, not Hong Kong dollars or Chinese yuan.

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I'm not sure if you can just buy CNY, unless you have a Chinese bank account.

You can buy CNY ETFs, which use derivatives to mirror the development of the CNY.

Ultimate Guide To China Yuan ETF Investing | ETF Database

I had been considering money market funds, but the rate of return on them is almost nil. So, I've been considering bond ETFs, which at least have a return closer to 1%. Still not very impressive, but a lot better than nil. Not very good compared to 5-10% in a few months though if China were to allow a relative unpegging in a signficant fashion in the next little while. However:

Financial Post: Hu tells Obama: China to make its own call on yuan

-

BEIJING/WASHINGTON -- China will chart its own course in reforming the yuan, President Hu Jintao told President Barack Obama, reinforcing the view that Beijing is likely to tip-toe, not leap, toward appreciation.

The yuan edged down in the offshore forwards market on Hu's comments and Asian currencies, which have gained in recent weeks on expectations of a Chinese revaluation, also dipped. The Malaysian ringgit, often used as a proxy for the yuan, dropped 0.8 percent.

-

It also should be noted that China had a pretty significant trade deficit last quarter, and are using that to justify going slowly on the re-valuation of the yuan.

-

WSJ: China Says Trade Data Justify Its Yuan Policy

China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March, data issued Saturday show, a development that, while likely temporary, was quickly seized on by the nation's commerce ministry to argue against the need to revalue the country's currency.

With imports of commodities surging last month, China swung to a trade deficit of $7.24 billion in March from a surplus of $7.61 billion in February, according to figures issued by China's Customs agency. Overall, imports were up 66% from a year earlier in March, with purchases of crude oil and copper at near-record levels in volume terms. The import bill was further boosted by rising commodity prices.

-

So, for someone like me who lives Kanuckistan, it seems a bit risky to just leave a whole bunch of cash sitting a yuan-based money market ETF just to have it sit there for months, and then see the yuan only appreciate slightly initially. It might make more sense just to stick it in a bond ETF and make 0.75% or whatever.

In the meantime...

Originally Posted by Eug 

April 6, 2010

CAD: $1.000 <- parity
GBP: $1.519
Euro: $1.338
Yen: $0.0107
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $86.17
Gold: $1138.80

This popped up on XE.com page today:

Rate Explanation
This rate means that the CAD is worth more than the USD.
Each US Dollar is worth 0.99992 Canadian Dollars.
Each Canadian Dollar is worth 1.00008 US Dollars.

April 13, 2010

CAD: $0.998
GBP: $1.543
Euro: $1.360
Yen: $0.0108
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $83.64
Gold: $1156.37

BTW, China's Sinopec just spent US$4.65 billion to invest in oil in Canada. That values their portion at the equivalent of oil being over $95 a barrel according to some.

China's big move into Alberta

If oil really does hit that price sooner rather than later, then the Canadian dollar could appreciate faster than the yuan actually, since (somewhat unfortunately) the Canadian dollar is an oil-dependent currency.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

April 13, 2010

CAD: $0.998
GBP: $1.543
Euro: $1.360
Yen: $0.0108
Yuan: $0.146

Oil: $83.64
Gold: $1156.37

May 6, 2010

Bad day for the Dow, good day for the US $.

CAD: $0.950
GBP: $1.476
Euro: $1.263
Yen: $0.0110
Yuan: $0.146

Bad day for oil, good day for gold.

Oil: $76.93
Gold: $1207.41

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

May 6, 2010

Bad day for the Dow, good day for the US $.

CAD: $0.950
GBP: $1.476
Euro: $1.263
Yen: $0.0110
Yuan: $0.146

Bad day for oil, good day for gold.

Oil: $76.93
Gold: $1207.41

Today, China announced a managed revaluation of the Yuan .That said, the yuan rose only a little, about 0.4% or so. Nonetheless, the stock markets are happy all around the world.

CAD: $0.985
GBP: $1.484
Euro: $1.238
Yen: $0.0110
Yuan: $0.147

- 6288
FTSE 100 - 5298
Nikkei - 10238
Hang Seng - 20912

Dow - 10570
S&P 500 - 1129
TSX - 12063

In the meantime, the Euro continues to drop against the US dollar and other currencies. In Canadian dollars, it's now about 4 Euros for every 5 CAD$ (exchange 1.258). As for the UK pound, it's about 2 pounds for every 3 CAD$ (exchange 1.506). Makes it easy to calculate.

Oil is also doing well at $79.71 while gold is down slightly at $1257.00. Personally I think gold is overvalued, but that's just me apparently. Well, maybe not just me.

[ort888]

When Obama brings about the end times, you are going to want to be heavily invested in handgun rounds and canned goods. It's really hard to beat back a starving mob of suburbanites gone feral with a gold certificate.

[turtle777]

Gold Spot hit $ 1,265 today, (close to ?) alltime high.

24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days

I'm not sure how this relares to that article that states a futures Gold price of $ 1,220.

-t

[Lateralus]

Originally Posted by ort888 

When Obama brings about the end times, you are going to want to be heavily invested in handgun rounds and canned goods. It's really hard to beat back a starving mob of suburbanites gone feral with a gold certificate.

^I think a book of MacNN quotes would sell quite well.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ort888 

When Obama brings about the end times, you are going to want to be heavily invested in handgun rounds and canned goods. It's really hard to beat back a starving mob of suburbanites gone feral with a gold certificate.

Gold CERTS ? Hell no.

I got physical Gold, in addition to guns and canned food, of course

-t

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Personally I think gold is overvalued, but that's just me apparently. Well, maybe not just me.

The bloke you're agreeing with said "I do not fully understand the movements in the gold price".

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Gold Spot hit $ 1,265 today, (close to ?) alltime high.

24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days

I'm not sure how this relares to that article that states a futures Gold price of $ 1,220.

From a couple of weeks ago.

Originally Posted by Doofy 

The bloke you're agreeing with said "I do not fully understand the movements in the gold price".

And I agree with that statement. I don't understand it either, given the context of the rest of the market.

Then again, I've never understood it.

[turtle777]

Eug, you should apply to become Fed chairman, since you obviously don't have full understanding

-t

[Eug]

Wow. The US$ has really been in the crapper in the last little while, esp. against the Euro and GBP. Hell, it even managed to move down against the Yuan - doesn't bode well for future Apple hardware pricing. Meanwhile, gold continues its tear.

Originally Posted by Eug 

CAD: $0.985
GBP: $1.484
Euro: $1.238
Yen: $0.0110
Yuan: $0.150

- 6288
FTSE 100 - 5298
Nikkei - 10238
Hang Seng - 20912

Dow - 10570
S&P 500 - 1129
TSX - 12063

In the meantime, the Euro continues to drop against the US dollar and other currencies. In Canadian dollars, it's now about 4 Euros for every 5 CAD$ (exchange 1.258). As for the UK pound, it's about 2 pounds for every 3 CAD$ (exchange 1.506). Makes it easy to calculate.

Oil is also doing well at $79.71 while gold is down slightly at $1257.00. Personally I think gold is overvalued, but that's just me apparently. Well, maybe not just me.

CAD: $1.000
GBP: $1.603
Euro: $1.410
Yen: $0.0123
Yuan: $0.147

- 6473
FTSE 100 - 5740
Nikkei - 9584
Hang Seng - 23852

Dow - 11096
S&P 500 - 1178
TSX - 12673

Gold - $1379
Oil - $83.27

[turtle777]

Heck, Silver is doing even better than Gold, as predicted. Up 42% this year.

Bought my first silver at around $10, now it's $23.50.

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

CAD: $1.000
GBP: $1.603
Euro: $1.410
Yen: $0.0123
Yuan: $0.147

DAX - 6473
FTSE 100 - 5740
Nikkei - 9584
Hang Seng - 23852

Dow - 11096
S&P 500 - 1178
TSX - 12673

Gold - $1379
Oil - $83.27

CAD: $1.033
GBP: $1.621
Euro: $1.393
Yen: $0.0121
Yuan: $0.152

DAX - 7189
FTSE 100 - 5962
Nikkei - 10590
Hang Seng - 23810

Dow - 12222
S&P 500 - 1322
TSX - 14013

Gold - $1434
Oil - $105.13

Traders ‘short’ dollar as currency loses attraction

Hedge funds and forex dealers are betting record amounts against the dollar, reflecting a growing belief that the US currency has lost its haven appeal and that eurozone interest rates will soon rise.

As the crisis in the Middle East has worsened, the latest exchange data show that traders are selling “short” the currency. The big US fiscal deficit and concerns about the effect of rising oil prices have been blamed by some for the dollar’s slide.

“Dollar bears have become a marauding horde,” said David Watt, analyst at RBC Capital Markets. Given the continued losses for the dollar this month, he said it was likely that investors had since added to their bets against the US currency, short of an “absolutely stunning” reversal in sentiment.

“We may be seeing a turn in the longer-term outlook for the dollar – for the worse,” said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Société Générale. He said the US Federal Reserve was likely to react more dovishly to a supply-side inflationary shock caused by rising oil prices than other central banks.

[turtle777]

Silver, bitchez.

$36 and going strong.

-t

[ort888]

I'm putting all of my money in Barrack Obama Collectible Coins! AS SEEN ON TV!