[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

It doesn't matter, it won't undo votes that have taken place, and it definitely isn't big enough to cause superdelegates to flock to either candidate in droves (and Clinton would need a a very significant percentage of superdelegate support to catch up - over 63%, I believe)...

In Presidential campaign ads, besson. In October.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Just be prepared for your party to lose BIG in November, Besson.

Whatever Big Mac, I'm not really interested in having this conversation with you. I prefer my debate to be well-reasoned and not dripping in emotion and partisanship.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

There is little here to be irked about. If you want to be irked, you should be irked about something far more important such as how a candidate voted or represented an issue you care deeply about, or about whether your candidate betrayed your trust on something that actually matters (getting a blowjob not qualifying).

The fact that it irked a pro-Obama blogger and maximum dollar campaign contributor enough to release it, and that it was enough to actually shift polls, speaks volumes methinks.

Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth 

In Presidential campaign ads, besson. In October.

Ah, very good point. McCain is lovin' it.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth 

Nope. But as a swing state, you probably want to be a little more careful about insulting it.

PA went for Kerry in 2004 and for the Democrats strongly in 2006. I don't think they are really much of a swing state.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

PA went for Kerry in 2004 and for the Democrats strongly in 2006. I don't think they are really much of a swing state.

No one state can dictate a presidential victory (except Florida ), but politicians nonetheless usually try not to insult their proletariat too badly.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

PA went for Kerry in 2004 and for the Democrats strongly in 2006. I don't think they are really much of a swing state.

Christ besson, do you know what they say about chicken eggs?

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are three of the more key sates in the past few elections.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth 

In Presidential campaign ads, besson. In October.

Hillary has given McCain far stronger material to use for ad material in other areas, and McCain has plenty of tarnishes in his own record that will keep him on the defensive, especially with Obama's campaign financing abilities (assuming that neither McCain nor Obama can work out an agreement for working with public financing).

I feel comfortable enough predicting that this little story will be completely irrelevant well before October.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Ah, very good point. McCain is lovin' it.

I think its more likely a Swift Boat style group will beat the ever living tar out of those quotes.

But yeah, McCain will be grinning (cue Popeye pic)

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Hillary has given McCain far stronger material to use for ad material in other areas, and McCain has plenty of tarnishes in his own record that will keep him on the defensive, especially with Obama's campaign financing abilities (assuming that neither McCain nor Obama can work out an agreement for working with public financing).

I don't get what you're saying. Hillary has blemishes on her record that McCain can use against her? Who cares if you think Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination? What matters for Obama-for-prez are blemishes on Obama's record, not Hillary's.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth 

Christ besson, do you know what they say about chicken eggs?

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are three of the more key sates in the past few elections.

True, but things are changing... Many say that Texas might be winnable, as well as New Mexico, North Dakota, Nevada, and even states like Virginia. I think the map will be much different this time around, but so far PA seems strongly democratic outside of polling margins for error.

A lot can happen though, so I agree with what you're saying about the chicken/egg.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Whatever Big Mac, I'm not really interested in having this conversation with you. I prefer my debate to be well-reasoned and not dripping in emotion and partisanship.

Laughable.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Eug 

The fact that it irked a pro-Obama blogger and maximum dollar campaign contributor enough to release it, and that it was enough to actually shift polls, speaks volumes methinks.

Don't underestimate the short attention spans of voters. We've seen this before over and over and over again.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I don't get what you're saying. Hillary has blemishes on her record that McCain can use against her? Who cares if you think Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination? What matters for Obama-for-prez are blemishes on Obama's record, not Hillary's.

I'm saying that Hillary has provided McCain with plenty of ammo and arguments he can recycle, complete with observational analysis of the effectiveness of these tactics.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

I'm saying that Hillary has provided McCain with plenty of ammo and arguments he can recycle, complete with observational analysis of the effectiveness of these tactics.

So are you really trying to suggest then that that's all he'll ever need?

Lemme just say... In a war, the more ammo the better...

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Eug 

So you're saying then that that's all he'll ever need?

Lemme just say... In a war, the more ammo the better...

I'm saying that he will have to zero in on a few key arguments and repeat them over and over again for them to sink into the American consciousness, and this particular argument is definitely one of the weaker ones in his arsenal not worth the emphasis.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

I'm saying that he will have to zero in on a few key arguments and repeat them over and over again for them to sink into the American consciousness, and this particular argument is definitely one of the weaker ones in his arsenal not worth the emphasis.

Actually, I think Obama has run a fairly good campaign, but I consider this gaffe to be one of his more noticeable ones, at least in terms of popular media sound bites.

This isn't some stupid "Obama is cahoots with muslim terrorists" idiocy posted in some blogs, but a series of words uttered by the man himself.

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Don't underestimate the short attention spans of voters. We've seen this before over and over and over again.

Don't underestimate the persistence of your competitors, to remind the voters of the past. We've seen this before over and over and over again.

[besson3c]

Here is an interesting map of what some of the swing states might be this time around:

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

I disagree with the way this guy collects this data, so take this with a huge grain of salt bearing in mind that a lot of polling data in these states that have already held primaries is very old, but again, this is just a rough idea.

One of the reasons why I disagree with this methodology is in actually taking seriously the idea that New York would go for McCain. I don't think he actually weighs the reliability of certain polls over others based on historical accuracy, he just uses whatever the latest poll happens to be regardless of who ran it.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Actually, I think Obama has run a fairly good campaign, but I consider this gaffe to be one of his more noticeable ones, at least in terms of popular media sound bites.

This isn't some stupid "Obama is cahoots with muslim terrorists" idiocy posted in some blogs, but a series of words uttered by the man himself.



Don't underestimate the persistence of your competitors, to remind the voters of the past. We've seen this before over and over and over again.

We shall see. History indicates that the campaigns do not emphasis tactics and attacks that have not gained traction in the past. This one is not generating much traction at all, so far.