Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning?

who is winning the blu-ray/hd-dvd format war?

Right now, HD DVD.

FWIW, this is a real-time assessment of the race at Amazon.com: The DVD Wars

To give you an idea... Only the #1 Blu-ray seller is in the top 1000 at Amazon.com, whereas the top 8 HD DVDs are all in the top 1000.

interesting! thanks for posting that link!

IMHO, HD-DVD seems to be ahead, but the real question is... will the PS3 impact the future of Blue-ray?

500,000 units saturating the market is significant considering HD-DVD isn't standard on the Xbox 360.

We'll just have to see. One negative point for Blue-Ray is the price of the units. $1000 at Best Buy is going to make a considerable number of people either go HD-DVD or wait for PS3 units.

Anything with "HD" in the name should do better.

Wait till everyone who wants an PS3 gets one and then ask.

By mid next year it should be very different.

Blu-Ray has also shown it can look just as good or better than HD-DVD with the latest titles like X3 so the former advantage in that area that HD-DVD in that area is gone.

I've only seen commercials that tout blu-ray. While I don't know which one is technically better or which one may be winning the marketing war, I have only see stuff about blu-ray

Perhaps, or perhaps not.

Given the very low apparent Blu-ray disc attachment rate for the PS3, it seems that PS3 owners aren't really as into HD movies as others.

My prediction is that by summer 2007, Blu-ray disc sales numbers may be more competitive than now compared to HD DVD... which means that nobody wins the far. ie. I'm predicting a stalemate in 2007.

The other thing is I'm predicting that Sony's prediction of 6 million PS3s by March 2007 will simply be another missed target.


That's just it. Blu-ray has been saying for just about forever that they're better, but only recently have they equalled HD DVD in image quality.

The HD DVD players cost half as much, but the image quality was either the same or was better.

Add in the fact that Sony failed to reach their published estimates on the PS3. MSNBC While I do expect the PS3 to be a success its quite surprising to see that sony forcasted 400,000 units but sold only between 125,000 and 175,000 on the first day.

To bring this home regarding the thread, lack of huge PS3 numbers means less blu-ray units being sold.

Judging by how long this has taken I'd say that no one really gives a crap about either format. Especially the people with already huge DVD collections.

This is extremely relevant. I was just considering getting a player today. I checked the Netflix collection, and they have slightly more HD-DVD discs (about 5-10 titles more) than Blu-Ray. Either one appears to be up for the title. However, with the price of the Toshiba HD-DVD player (A2), it looks like this will be the best player in town.

Right now I'm siding with HD-DVD only because it's cost me $150 dollars to get the 360 HD-DVD player. I already had the 360 so this was a good deal for me.

Another plus is the fact that the USB hookup can also work (after downoading drivers) under XP. Hopefully there will be a OS X driver someday, I know it sees the drive.

I hope one format wins soon, It's frustrating seeing the splits on the studios. I just want nicer looking video!

If I'm reading what you said correctly, you misunderstood that article. It sounds like you're implying that the PS3 isn't selling as well as expected. However, the article states that Sony shipped only 125K-175K units instead of the 400K estimated.

I don't think I misunderstood it, perhaps my wording in the thread. The analyst was stating that the PS3 failed to achieve its inital goals which sony set. Sony remains committed to hitting their goals for year end sales but inital day sails were far below expectations (125k - 175k) instead of the 400k

My post was two fold, I don't think that the failure to hit the estimates means that the PS3 will be a failure but less units means less blu-ray drives getting into the hands of the consumers.

I'm not buying either - their greed is not going to be enhanced by my wallet. The biggest loser in all of this is the consumer - remember betamax?

Are you equating units shipped with units sold? I'm interpreting what you're saying as demand isn't as strong as Sony had estimated, hence the lower numbers. However, what's really happening is that Sony is failing to ship as many units as they predicted due to supply problems whatever they may be. Sony isn't supplying as many as they hoped so the PS3 is even more scarce.

In either case, you're right that the number of Blu-ray drives getting out there is lower.

You know, with studios backing both formats, and dual-format players on the horizon, I think it'll end up a non-issue.

That's what Sony is betting the farm on. However, there are some significant problems with that. Among other things, Sony created a rather impressive parts shortage with the PS3, hurting not only themselves but also other companies that make (or wish to make) Blu-Ray drives.
That would be true, but Sony hasn't been able to ship anywhere near 500,000 units yet, so the point is moot.

Here's what bugs me. One format is obviously a better picture quality, one format holds more data per disc than the other, and one format has a lower priced player. Now which of these is more important?

I really, really wish these stupid manufacturers would learn to play nice in the sandbox and agree on a common format. Instead of advancing society for the good of all people on this planet, they choose to fight over a money instead. Just agree on a format, and then innovate and make the next HD sucessor technology.

That's a fair assessment. HD DVD is beating Blu-ray right now, but both pale in comparison to DVD, and will continue to do so for several years.

:lol:

Sorry, but that's hilarious. Advancing society by choosing a single format. :D

I'm just waiting for someone to come out with a player that will play both formats...

I recall LG working on one.

I came across an article recently that was saying that both are dead in the water because of lack of titles, poor shipping, and because Movies are starting to be available over the net...

At any rate, it'll be a while before I can/want to get something.

that's what i'm gonna wait for. What's the point with two different formats, and the movies could be one format and not the other, forcing people to have two diffrerent players?

I agree that HD-DVD is on the edge right now.

FYI. Apple is on the Blu-ray camp according to wikipedia.

Yeah, Steve Jobs said Apple is favouring Blu-ray. I also expect Apple will release Mac Pros and MacBook Pros with Blu-ray drives in Q1 2007.

OTOH, DVD Studio Pro already burns HD DVD (non-DRM'd on DVD media), and DVD Player.app will play them back on any fast Mac.

You guys will remember a while back LG coming out and saying that they consider making a combo Blu-ray & HD DVD player. Same with Samsung. Then, a few months later, they were Blu-ray only.

It's clear that Sony is trying its hardest to prevent the existence of such a device. They are terrified of a combo player. A combo player would instantly end the format war. It would simply become a format stalemate. While Sony and the Blu-ray consortium would continue to make money off licencing, a combo player would suddenly mean that the Playstation 3 is obsolete. Thus, it's obvious that Sony is deathly afraid of this.

The same could be argued about the Xbox 360's HD DVD, but the difference here is that the platform itself is not dependent upon HD DVD. It's just a bonus. This is in stark contrast to the PS3's Blu-ray drive, which is a requirement. After the release of a combo player, Sony would be stuck in a very difficult place: Either stick with Blu-ray only and be obsolete, or upgrade the units to combo players at even higher cost, while simultaneously irritating all its early customers.

Sony's PS3/Blu-ray aspirations are high, and had the potential of being synergistic items key in winning the format war. However, in the end, it could prove to be the Achilles' heel of the format as well, since Sony has had a hard time getting stuff out anywhere near its expectations. The next six months to a year are going to be very interesting...

Not happening, at least not legally.

That is a rumour that has never been substantiated. In fact, many have said quite the opposite.

ie. There is no proven legal reason why a combo player couldn't happen, since neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD specifically preclude such a player, at least according to insiders. There are all sorts of political and economic reasons why it might not happen anytime soon though.

In regard to a combo player, and Eug's post. Is there anything that Sony could do to stop a combo player from being made?
Ignoring paying off the manufacturer.

edit: I guess my question got answered.

It's been stated MANY times that Sony has a clause in their license agreement that says that a hardware unit cannot be licensed by Sony if that same unit has HD-DVD support.

Some of the upcoming titles for Blu-ray are pretty killer in many ways and are going to be better overall and in some cases cheaper than the same HD-DVD titles.

Cheaper...why? Some HD-DVD versions are hybrids.

HD-DVD still has the advantage in many ways. Superman Returns has a serious advantage on HD-DVD because of the lossless audio.

There have been rumours of this repeated ad nauseum on some forums, but insiders on those same forums have stated that in fact to their knowledge no such clause exists.

The lack of a combo unit is purely a political and economic decision, not a legal one, as far as the available information indicates.

I think it is because some titles aren't coming out as stand alone HD-DVD so the hybrid disks cost more than the Blu-ray.

Bingo! People are going to eat up anything that has HD attached to it.

can both players play standard DVDs?

Yes.

Really? I thought Blu-Ray wasn't backwards compatible.

I think the Sammy can't play CDs. That might have been what you heard. I haven't tried it myself since I have a dedicated CD player in that room.

Nope. The PS3 also reads just about every disk type you throw at it.

It isn't. Neither is HD DVD.

Both players include secondary lasers for DVD.

I have a Samsung Blue-ray player, and I think it'll read every disc format, save for DVD-RAM and the "+" variety of writables (DVD+R, DVD+RW). The "+" thing seems odd, but I haven't tried it yet.

Would a multi player have to be licenced? Could someone release a "HD player" or "HD drive" that doesn't use the bluray name licence but simply states... "plays both HD formats" or "plays all discs"


What kind of "economic decision" would lead someone not to build a player that everyone wants. There are a billion people that would rush to the store and buy a multi player today if one existed. I don't understand how not building one could be a political or economic decision. Could you explain rather that just tossing around terms that make it sound like you know what you're talking about and we don't need to know or couldn't undertstand if you told us?

I don't see how it could get away with it. If you want to have blu-ray compatible on the box you have to get rights from sony.

Then again I am sure it won't take long for an illegal one to come out of China that is cheap, ugly and buggy... but works sometimes.

Sounds like Product suicide to me. If it doesn't actually have the logo that people can associate with the available formats then there's a question in their minds... I wouldn't be interested in spending $300+ for a player that wasn't licensed.

Yes, if they want to be legal.

Yes, but.... Some cheap Chinese DVD players that showed up here from companies that didn't licence DVD were taken off the market.

The market is very small at the moment. Building a combo player at say $799 is not going to make "a billion people" rush to the store to buy it. Maybe 100000 if it was a top notch product and they were lucky.

That's profit, but not a huge amount of profit, given the costs of the actual hardware and the licencing. Sony and friends could easily have financial agreements with these companies to be format exclusive at this early stage of the game, since it's not as if the CE companies are going to make sheetloads of cash off players this early in the game. Plus, it doesn't pay to p!ss off the people licencing the technologies to you.

All bets are off later in 2007 or in 2008 though, when the potential market is larger.

In any case, the dogmatic claims that 'hybrid players can't be made because it's specifically disallowed by Blu-ray' are so far bull, because I've never seen a single person making that claim give credible evidence for that, and I've never seen a single Blu-ray/HD DVD insider claim that at all. One could argue that my stuff about "economic and political" factors is speculation, but I have never denied that. I am just responding to the other claims that often get repeated, despite having nothing whatsoever to substantiate them.

The Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD thing wont be a short term thing. it's going to go on for a few years imo. I mean the DVD just took over VHS after some 10 years, right ? and most people havent even seen the quality that DVD can deliver anyway. Im sure that HD-DVD/BR-DVD has been image quality, etc...i just dont think home consumers will just jump on so quickly. sure HD-TVs are selling more now than they did a few years ago....but nothing thats going to overtake the DVD just yet imo.

Ill just sit this war out and then get either a hybrid player or the winning format.

I'll likely pick up HD attachment for my 360, and get either a PS3 or standalone BD player when the price hits $200 or so, assuming one format hasn't died at that point.