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Jan 22, 2008 09:42 AM
Market Crash
Any ideas about money today?

I've been saying to family and friends that this was going to happen and it did. Inevitable.

How much have you lost - if only on paper?

Today's gonna be a rough one.
 
Dakar the Fourth Jan 22, 2008 09:46 AM
 
badidea Jan 22, 2008 09:52 AM
I lost about 23%...so far...
 
Jan 22, 2008 10:28 AM
badidea: It's probably a badidea to sell right now.

2 minutes to go before the eagle lands...

(before market opens)
 
Jan 22, 2008 10:41 AM
down -400+.

Not too bad, considering overseas...
 
air Jan 22, 2008 10:48 AM
oh. my. lawd. down 23%
 
Jan 22, 2008 10:51 AM
The end of the day will tell what's what. If people sell off or the sharks are out to buy. Market coming back slightly.

Apple is down, way down. Almost 7%.

:hmm:
 
osiris Jan 22, 2008 10:55 AM
Crash? The market is better than it should be.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_dji
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 11:13 AM
Uhm, ok, bottomed out yet ? Don't think so.

Last recession, from highs in early 2000 to lows in 2002: DOW JONES down about 35%.
This time, highs in Oct 2007 to now: DOW JONES down about 17%.

It took 3 years to recover from the dotcom bust, the mortgage crisis is gonna take at least that long.

We still have a long way to go...

-t
 
MacosNerd Jan 22, 2008 11:24 AM
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.

While my 401k is taking a beating, I don't own any stocks outright. There's little that I can do and I'm not about to shuffle my money around because of this.
 
Jan 22, 2008 11:29 AM
We don't move money around at all when the market is volatile. It just sits in a time-out.

I agree that the market could be a lot worse. In '87 the market went down about 2500 points. We have a long way to go before we approach that.

Hearing talk, though, that Ben Bernanke may be given the boot.

Not sure if that's good or bad. He's no Alan Greenspan.

Ben Bernanke vs. Greenspan
 
badidea Jan 22, 2008 11:29 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by (Post 3584560)
badidea: It's probably a badidea to sell right now.
Don't worry, I didn't sell when the stocks were at ~ +85% and I won't sell now, of course!
It's not that much money and they were a present of my insurance company anyway!
So in fact I'm still on the positive side - those stocks just lost around 23% in 2 days and around 50% in 3 months! :(
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 11:41 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by MacosNerd (Post 3584613)
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.
What controls ?
What action ?

It's too late, the Fed blew it by not cutting quickly enough, now the mess will spread. There is nothing that can prevent it from getting worse.

-t
 
Lateralus Jan 22, 2008 11:45 AM
I'm so glad I slept past the market open. I'd have had a heart attack if I hadn't.

I'm really not having a bad day at all at the moment. Still down but not much. Partly because my largest stock is up on the rate cut.

Trying to decide if I should totally get out of everything now, before the market decides that the rate cut means nothing and tanks again.
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 11:46 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by Lateralus (Post 3584634)
Trying to decide if I should totally get out of everything now, before the market decides that the rate cut means nothing and tanks again.
Well, if you can get out and still take a way some gains, do it.

If you already incurred loses, you might as well stick it out. :hmm:

-t
 
Lateralus Jan 22, 2008 11:49 AM
Can't even log in to my brokerage site. It's getting hammered.
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 11:50 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by Lateralus (Post 3584638)
Can't even log in to my brokerage site. It's getting hammered.
Let's hope your broker is not broke ;)

-t
 
andi*pandi Jan 22, 2008 11:52 AM
is this part of a trend, perhaps why my 401k did so poorly last quarter? the only thing that made money was Stable Income.

I guess I'm leaving my 401k as is, I don't know what to shuffle it to.
 
Dakar the Fourth Jan 22, 2008 11:56 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by andi*pandi (Post 3584641)
is this part of a trend, perhaps why my 401k did so poorly last quarter? the only thing that made money was Stable Income.

I guess I'm leaving my 401k as is, I don't know what to shuffle it to.
Yeah, mine took a beating, and kinda killed what was a good year.
 
MacosNerd Jan 22, 2008 11:56 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by turtle777 (Post 3584632)
What controls ?
What action ?

-t
Generally the market restricts trading in situations like this. In the past this has helped stem the bleeding. Its really a short term fix and stops people from really panicking. It does not address the situation that causes the free fall but it helps people catch their breath.
 
analogika Jan 22, 2008 11:59 AM
Quote, Originally Posted by MacosNerd (Post 3584613)
Hopefully the controls kick in and limit the damage. This may also spur the president and congress, not only to quicker action, but a more comprehensive stimulus package.
Government intervention!?

DAMN YOU SOCIALISS! :mad:

;)
 
MacosNerd Jan 22, 2008 12:02 PM
Here's a snapshot as of 11:00am
Not too bad, it looks like its trying to fight back
http://www.macintosh128k.com/img/djia.png
 
Eug Jan 22, 2008 12:03 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth (Post 3584518)
Yeah, my thread on this is from yesterday. No surprise, since the crash already happened yesterday everywhere else in the world.

The surprise was that it wasn't worse, because Ben Bernanke decided to cut rates by a whopping 0.75%, before the crash started.

Thus, today's US crash is quite muted.

Anyways, AAPL dropped below $150 today. I didn't get in on that, but I got some at above $150.
 
MacosNerd Jan 22, 2008 12:10 PM
Too bad it wasn't a full point. I'm looking to refi my house and I want to lower my monthly mortgage payments.
 
Lateralus Jan 22, 2008 12:10 PM
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.

Is anybody using today as opportunity to step out until things calm down?

(Still can't login to TDAmeritrade....)
 
Eug Jan 22, 2008 12:18 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Lateralus (Post 3584675)
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.

Is anybody using today as opportunity to step out until things calm down?
I had cashed out much of my stock last summer, since I bought a house. Today I put a bit more money back into the market. :)

I don't quite understand why you'd get out now anyway. The time to get out was months ago. Or do you think the market is going to tank some more? It could, but I think the value now is reasonable for a correction, at least in light of the rate cut. I was expecting more of a 600 point drop, but that was before the early and big 0.75% rate drop.

Quote
(Still can't login to TDAmeritrade....)
Interesting. Must be on completely different servers. I had no problem with my TD Waterhouse in Canada, to buy US stocks.


Quote, Originally Posted by MacosNerd (Post 3584674)
Too bad it wasn't a full point. I'm looking to refi my house and I want to lower my monthly mortgage payments.
Consider yourself lucky. 0.75% was already unexpected.
 
Railroader Jan 22, 2008 12:29 PM
I've lost about 0.18% so far today.

And my 5 year average has been about 18% AYPR.

What crash? :D
 
osiris Jan 22, 2008 12:38 PM
I pulled out years ago too... thinking about silver, gold, poppy crops, slaves.;)
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 12:47 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Lateralus (Post 3584675)
So what is everybody's strategy?

To me, the market mood doesn't seem to have changed at all. So I have the feeling that the losses are definitely not over.
I started selling in Nov, so right now, my 401k holdings are about 70% stock and 30% cash.

I'm not decided yet how I'm gonna continue, but I think I might only sell a few more stocks (those that I absolutely see no upside potential in the near future), keep the rest and start buying into the weakness in the next 6 months.

I will probably buy more stock with great dividend yield. Yes, the dividends are going to be cut, but right now, some stock have just unbelievably great yield.

E.g.
AYR Div yield 12.5%
GLS Div yield 11.1%
DSX Div yield 10.8%
MO Div yield 3.9% (pretty recession safe)
USB Div yield 5.6% (holding up well for a financial, 1.5% gain compared to mid of Aug 07 crash)

-t
 
andi*pandi Jan 22, 2008 12:52 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Railroader (Post 3584693)
I've lost about 0.18% so far today.

And my 5 year average has been about 18% AYPR.

What crash? :D
quick everyone, get him! we'll divvy up his wallet, mastrap can have his hats, but I want his SHOES!
 
xi_hyperon Jan 22, 2008 12:54 PM
401k getting no love, but ima keep everything where it is. Just bide my time and ride it out.
 
Lateralus Jan 22, 2008 01:18 PM
Here's to hoping AAPL annihilates earnings estimates...
 
Railroader Jan 22, 2008 01:30 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by andi*pandi (Post 3584715)
quick everyone, get him! we'll divvy up his wallet, mastrap can have his hats, but I want his SHOES!
railROADER not railHEAD. :D

I have no hats other than a Red Wing baseball hat. I do have a nice pair of Simards though. Otherwise it's K-Swiss all the way.




Seriously, didn't you people see this thing coming months ago? Look in any local newspaper (yes, the paper version) and look at the legal notices of foreclosure. Look at the debt people are carrying!

You people had to duck and move off the path to not see the signs of a major correction getting ready to occur.
 
Eug Jan 22, 2008 01:42 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Lateralus (Post 3584735)
Here's to hoping AAPL annihilates earnings estimates...
I'm not counting my chickens, but I hope so, considering I bought today.

C'mon Apple, don't follow that sell-on-news rule! :p
 
Lateralus Jan 22, 2008 01:58 PM
I just crossed into the green for the day. Man, I love NLY...
 
Tesselator Jan 22, 2008 02:09 PM
I hope nothing bad happens but the News I listen to has been talking about this
as an inevitability for about 2 years now saying that collapsing the dollar is part
of a publicly researchable plan that goes along with the merger of US, Canada,
and Mexico.
WorldNetDaily: 'Bush doesn't think America should be an actual place'
WorldNetDaily: London stock trader urges move to 'amero'

Most of those same news people say that Brittan is the main player in all this.

Ya think they're still mad about the tea? :D

--
These seem relative as well:
WorldNetDaily: U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse?
The Declining US Dollar: Winners And Losers
WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets ***
 
Eug Jan 22, 2008 02:17 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Tesselator (Post 3584771)
I hope nothing bad happens but the News I listen to has been talking about this
as an inevitability for about 2 years now saying that collapsing the dollar is part
of a publicly researchable plan that goes along with the merger of US, Canada,
and Mexico.
WorldNetDaily: 'Bush doesn't think America should be an actual place'
WorldNetDaily: London stock trader urges move to 'amero'

Most of those same news people say that Brittan is the main player in all this.

Ya think they're still mad about the tea? :D

--
This seems relative as well: WorldNetDaily: U.S. dollar facing imminent collapse?
I think you should get better news sources.
 
Jan 22, 2008 02:18 PM
WorldNetDaily?

:err:

I'm conservative but think that the market is going to keep on bumping and grinding all along the bottom leaving those of us along for the ride with skinned knees.

But, if you can hold on then hold on and your skinned knees will heel.

Someday.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the day closes.

I think a lot of today had to do with Bank of America's issues - China had some issues today because they dumped Bank of America and Bank of China was also way down. (Are they dumping their own money? No confidence in themselves?)
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 02:20 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Tesselator (Post 3584771)
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.

Did you even look at the date ?

Posted: December 10, 2006
5:38 p.m. Eastern

WTF ? :stick:

-t
 
Eug Jan 22, 2008 02:29 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by (Post 3584620)
Hearing talk, though, that Ben Bernanke may be given the boot.
Where have you heard that? I haven't heard any reputable sources suggest that.

Quote
Not sure if that's good or bad. He's no Alan Greenspan.

Ben Bernanke vs. Greenspan
Definite a different style... which may be a good thing.
 
Tesselator Jan 22, 2008 02:40 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by turtle777 (Post 3584789)
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.

Did you even look at the date ?

Posted: December 10, 2006
5:38 p.m. Eastern

WTF ? :stick:

-t
But that was my point. They and 20 or 30 other news services, have been
issuing warnings of this for years now. That date is just proof of claim is
all.

Here's their story on today's mess: WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets

--
But hey, what's wrong with WND? :confused:
 
Jan 22, 2008 02:40 PM
Bernanke making an exit?

Heard it this morning on CNBC as a matter-of-fact.

I'm not sure that it's a good idea simply because Bernanke making ANY exit in any fashion is probably going to be interpreted as a weakness - which the market doesn't need right now.

The thing is, Bernanke is the one who kept saying, ad nauseam, that the subprime meltdown was "contained." Boy, was he wrong. Citigroup posting their worst losses, Merrill Lynch, and today Bank of America, he's way off.

Here are his words:

Quote
Even as the housing industry stumbles through its correction, major financial institutions should be spared. “Importantly, we see no serious broader spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market; troubled lenders, for the most part, have not been institutions with federally insured deposits,” Bernanke said.
That was last May.

Gold sure is doing well right now, I'll say that.
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 02:44 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Tesselator (Post 3584810)
But that was my point. They and 20 or 30 other news services, have been
issuing warnings of this for years now. That date is just proof of claim is
all.

Here's their story on today's mess: WorldNetDaily: Holiday saves U.S. markets

--
But hey, what's wrong with WND? :confused:
Yes, please post more stuff from sources like that.

Maybe something from the Financial Weekly World News :rolleyes:

-t
 
Don Pickett Jan 22, 2008 02:57 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by turtle777 (Post 3584789)
Dude, you should be slapped left and right for posting this crap.
Dude, the dollar has been collapsing for a while now, and will continue to. Not long until it's just the American Peso.
 
Tesselator Jan 22, 2008 02:57 PM
Huh? Sources like what? Clue a brutha in will ya?
 
Shaddim Jan 22, 2008 02:58 PM
I'm so insanely happy now, picked up 150 shares of AAPL at 150.74. It's like finding money on the sidewalk!
 
turtle777 Jan 22, 2008 03:00 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Don Pickett (Post 3584823)
Dude, the dollar has been collapsing for a while now, and will continue to. Not long until it's just the American Peso.
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization. :hmm:

-t
 
Don Pickett Jan 22, 2008 03:08 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by turtle777 (Post 3584827)
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization. :hmm:

-t
Really? When was the last time USD had a sustained period of valuation against foreign currencies?
 
Tesselator Jan 22, 2008 03:09 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by turtle777 (Post 3584827)
I guess "collapsing" is a bit of overdramatization. :hmm:

-t
With the current US Dollar worth about two cents of it's 1918 former self (when it was
bamboozled off it's hard metal backing) wouldn't you call that an "ongoing collapse"?

Admittedly some estimates put it at nearly four cents. ;)
 
Don Pickett Jan 22, 2008 03:21 PM
Quote, Originally Posted by Tesselator (Post 3584836)
With the current US Dollar worth about two cents of it's 1918 former self (when it was
bamboozled off it's hard metal backing) wouldn't you call that an "ongoing collapse"?

Admittedly some estimates put it at nearly four cents. ;)
You are conflating two things. I don't know whether or not you're doing it purposefully or out of ignorance.

Comparing historical values, especially over almost 100 years, is a useless exercise, as the economic bases of America (and the world) in 1918 and the economic bases of America (and the world) now are so different as to defy categorization. You can only use the most general things as reference, i.e., all speculative bubbles burst, etc. You could've made the argument in August, 1929, and it would have held as much water.

The dollar has lost significant value in the last fie years against the currencies of all our major trading partners, and against the world in general. If you look back 30 years, the long term trend line is steadily down. If you look back five years, the downward slope is increasing. It has lost 1/3 of its value since 2002, and 12.5% in the last year alone. And the reasons for this are basic and deep-seated economic problems in the U.S. and structural problems with our economy. And, if you want a history lesson, look at what happened to the English economy in the years 1875-1914.

Now, you tell me what happens when the dollar is no longer the international reserve currency.

edit: One of the problems with a lack of historical perspective is people expect all crashes to look like the Depression, when stockbrokers were jumping out of windows. They don't.
 
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