[besson3c]

A bit of a sensational headline, but I keep on coming back to the idea that touch computing will someday become the new norm of computing based on Apple's emerging platform, and what these ramifications will be. I know I've created a few related threads on the future of computing and all of this, but as you can tell I'm somewhat fascinated with what is going on now and how things will shake out.

For starters, those marketshare numbers that we keep on hearing about... When/if the mobile/cell phone/tablet type devices become the main devices that we use to measure overall success in the mass market, right now (although a zillion things could change) it looks like Google is set to become the new Microsoft in terms of sheer numbers of users to their platform. If this is the case, does that mean that it is accurate for Linux's marketshare to increase if these devices continue to be Linux based? What about iOS? It looks like this could easily overtake Windows if Microsoft is not able to compete ably in this new market.

It has been said that no dynasty lasts forever. The end of Microsoft has been predicted for years and years, but if Microsoft cannot catch up to Google and Apple, could this really be the beginning of the end for them?

Is it too late to predict the eventual demise of the desktop/laptop as we know it and it being replaced by lightweight, cloud focused, touch based, relatively inexpensive devices such as the iPad?

[downinflames68]

No. It is impossible to "create" on these small devices. yeah, you can do some stuff, but the power and control of a real desktop will not be replaced by the desktop. I think instead we'll see a shift for consumer lines to be more touch oriented, which are aimed towards consuming media... think ilibrary, itunes, imovies, ibooks, etc. This is what most "sheeple" will own. They will be able to watch youtube videos and hulu and play games on them.

But to CREATE anything worthwhile... be it music, art, design, cad, write papers, video editing, and anything that's of decent quality worth consuming, I think the desktop will still exist. I think it'll be more like mixing boards. They're cool, fun, and useful, but normal consumers don't need them. They're delegated to professionals.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

No. It is impossible to "create" on these small devices. yeah, you can do some stuff, but the power and control of a real desktop will not be replaced by the desktop. I think instead we'll see a shift for consumer lines to be more touch oriented, which are aimed towards consuming media... think ilibrary, itunes, imovies, ibooks, etc. This is what most "sheeple" will own. They will be able to watch youtube videos and hulu and play games on them.

But to CREATE anything worthwhile... be it music, art, design, cad, write papers, video editing, and anything that's of decent quality worth consuming, I think the desktop will still exist. I think it'll be more like mixing boards. They're cool, fun, and useful, but normal consumers don't need them. They're delegated to professionals.

Why not just bigger form factor touch devices that are conducive to creativity? Wouldn't a touch-based Photoshop, Final Cut Pro, text editor, or anything else work once these apps exist and we are used to this new input method? Sure these devices would need a more powerful CPU, more RAM, etc. but wouldn't the solution be to offer the same consumer type devices with this computing power rather than have a totally separate device?

[Spheric Harlot]

^ exactly.

I think time will show Rob to be completely wrong. And not much time, at that.

I am extremely curious how Apple will pull it off, though.

[brassplayersrock²]

[besson3c]

There is also so much interesting potential in the redesign of apps for touch... How cool would it be to do something like a Photoshop smudge by actually smudging the picture with your finger?

[mattyb]

I think that you'll see Photoshop competitors claim the 'touch' space. On Android PicSay Pro is far better than Photoshop. Companies without any 'legacy' will probably do better in the long term for the touchy feely based devices.

One thing that I'm unsure of is the keyboard. Even the touch devices have keyboards, are we ever going to move away from having some sort of keyboard? I cannot see how programmers (for example) could code without a keyboard.

I can't see some pics from certain sites at work, but have you seen the fine art stuff done on the iPad?

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

No. It is impossible to "create" on these small devices. yeah, you can do some stuff, but the power and control of a real desktop will not be replaced by the desktop. I think instead we'll see a shift for consumer lines to be more touch oriented, which are aimed towards consuming media... think ilibrary, itunes, imovies, ibooks, etc. This is what most "sheeple" will own. They will be able to watch youtube videos and hulu and play games on them.

But to CREATE anything worthwhile... be it music, art, design, cad, write papers, video editing, and anything that's of decent quality worth consuming, I think the desktop will still exist. I think it'll be more like mixing boards. They're cool, fun, and useful, but normal consumers don't need them. They're delegated to professionals.

Just for reference, how many books have you read/classes have you taken on this subject? It's important to us to know whether or not we're supposed argue with you.

[Laminar]

Also, LOL at "those who don't create are sheeple."

[The Final Dakar]

More like, lol, if I consume content on a device made for it, I'm sheeple.

[Laminar]

But how many books has he read on "sheeple"?

[Person Man]

I think there will be a mix of both. Handheld touch based devices will become more powerful and the interface will evolve to allow most people to "create" as well as they can on laptops and desktops currently. I think it's foolish to say that desktops/laptops will go away entirely, though. There will always be applications that require more than what a handheld system can provide.

I do think that even the desktop and laptop systems will evolve to include touch as a major input mechanism as well.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

I think there will be a mix of both. Handheld touch based devices will become more powerful and the interface will evolve to allow most people to "create" as well as they can on laptops and desktops currently. I think it's foolish to say that desktops/laptops will go away entirely, though. There will always be applications that require more than what a handheld system can provide.

What will a handheld system not be able to provide with a beefed up processor/RAM/disk, and say the ability to connect to an external monitor?

I do think that even the desktop and laptop systems will evolve to include touch as a major input mechanism as well.

When/if they do, how would they differ from these emerging touch devices and hypothetical options for more computing power? I'm under no illusion that the iPad is the final resting place for touch devices and tablets, it is just getting the party started.

I don't get people wanting touch screen desktops. Imaging having to lean across your desk to touch buttons, move windows, etc. - very annoying.

And well, if the screen was down on the desk itself, well, could work for some but my desk is much to messy for that. I have to dig out my keyboard and mouse every day.

[downinflames68]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Why not just bigger form factor touch devices that are conducive to creativity? Wouldn't a touch-based Photoshop, Final Cut Pro, text editor, or anything else work once these apps exist and we are used to this new input method? Sure these devices would need a more powerful CPU, more RAM, etc. but wouldn't the solution be to offer the same consumer type devices with this computing power rather than have a totally separate device?

No. Try manipulating a line in illustrator with even a trackpad. It is nigh impossible. It's doable, but a mouse is much easier, and more efficient. The same minute, precise control is required for all sorts of things. For data entry, again, the keyboard trumps a touch screen due to indexing the fingers on individual keys. You can get 'decent' at inputting data with a touch screen, but it will never be as fast as buttons. For something where the data was less precise though, and more 'organic', maybe it would make sense... but for video editing, sound production, CAD, illustrator, and photoshop, no, it will not be good with a touch interface.

Photoshop could be OKAY, if you were using it for painting... maybe... but even then, a cintiq is better. Until they have accurate pressure sensativity it will be something purely for consumers, not professionals.

[downinflames68]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

There is also so much interesting potential in the redesign of apps for touch... How cool would it be to do something like a Photoshop smudge by actually smudging the picture with your finger?

It'd be awesome. But how much would it SUCK to try to select a complex marquee, or manipulate a circular marquee exactly over something? For 'gestural' non-precise inputs, I can see it happening. I have a cintiq right next to me, which is basically a touch interface. Some programs are already taking advantage of this technology, like Sketchbook Pro, which has tool 'pools', in which you click and flick different directions for different tools. This is faster than moving a cursor to a precise small box on the left side of the screen, but again, it is not as precise. If you only use photoshop for basic retouching, I could see it working. If you use it for 'painting', I could see it working... but whenever you need to get precise, it will suck. And again, it lacks any sort of pressure sensativity, which limits drawing abilities.

[downinflames68]

Originally Posted by mattyb 

I can't see some pics from certain sites at work, but have you seen the fine art stuff done on the iPad?

All of which would be better with pressure sensativity. And if you have ever painted anything in real life, you'll know that having a fine brush for details is extremely necessary. With your big fat finger in the way, you can't see what you are doing, since the finger obscures the exact cursor.

Again, for gestural stuff, I can see it happening because it's basically already here. But complex cad, video editing or anything that requires minute control, no way in hell.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

What will a handheld system not be able to provide with a beefed up processor/RAM/disk, and say the ability to connect to an external monitor?

There will always be things which will require more processing power/memory, etc than is practical to put into a handheld device. Things such as 3D rendering, for instance.

But in general, desktops as we know them will probably be used by only very specific sectors (and hardware geeks, of course... the way things are now).

When/if they do, how would they differ from these emerging touch devices and hypothetical options for more computing power? I'm under no illusion that the iPad is the final resting place for touch devices and tablets, it is just getting the party started.

I think we're going to have hybrids. Things with touch interfaces that have the characteristics of a desktop or laptop, with the option of using other input devices for the task at hand.

Rob, for instance keeps talking about Photoshop. Yes, the current iPad is not very good for doing that sort of thing. But he cited several different things that require different tools. For instance, a touch screen would be good for a "smudge tool." A mouse is good for fine-grained selections. A keyboard is good for heavy data-entry. A Cintiq is good for sketching.

There's no reason that any of those devices couldn't be hooked up to a future touch device. After all, you can hook up a real keyboard to the iPad today.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by hayesk 

I don't get people wanting touch screen desktops. Imaging having to lean across your desk to touch buttons, move windows, etc. - very annoying.

And well, if the screen was down on the desk itself, well, could work for some but my desk is much to messy for that. I have to dig out my keyboard and mouse every day.

I'm sure there will be a whole host of peripherals and different alternative input devices for different purposes just as there is now (Wacom tablets, mice, trackpads, etc. Perhaps for some tasks even having a stylus to use with the screen rather than your fingers would be a plus?)

It seems to me that touch will become the new main input method. For starters, it enables all sorts of interesting organic sort of gestures like Apple is implementing with their trackpads and iPad, but it also enables devices to be thinner and more like a piece of paper.

It also provides us with the opportunity to rethink the next generation of operating systems like Apple is doing with iOS. The primary input method is a very important facet to how software is designed and conceived. OS X is built for mice and trackpads, and although it has gotten a lot trimmer with Snow Leopard compared to Leopard, it is still too bulky to used exactly as is on a device such as the iPad, hence the leaner and meaner iOS.

So, my point is that I think that the legitimate problems you have cited are more or less solvable problems, and that there is a tremendous future in more tablet-like, touch based, lightweight, cloud based, netbook sort of devices for a great many people (consumers and creators alike).

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

No. Try manipulating a line in illustrator with even a trackpad. It is nigh impossible. It's doable, but a mouse is much easier, and more efficient. The same minute, precise control is required for all sorts of things. For data entry, again, the keyboard trumps a touch screen due to indexing the fingers on individual keys. You can get 'decent' at inputting data with a touch screen, but it will never be as fast as buttons. For something where the data was less precise though, and more 'organic', maybe it would make sense... but for video editing, sound production, CAD, illustrator, and photoshop, no, it will not be good with a touch interface.

Photoshop could be OKAY, if you were using it for painting... maybe... but even then, a cintiq is better. Until they have accurate pressure sensativity it will be something purely for consumers, not professionals.

Like I said, I don't see why it would have to be one or the other, there are many different input devices today, I just see touch pushing the mouse/trackpad aside as being the primary and most commonly used input device. Supporting a USB mouse or any other input device for when useful is not an insurmountable hurdle.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

All of which would be better with pressure sensativity. And if you have ever painted anything in real life, you'll know that having a fine brush for details is extremely necessary. With your big fat finger in the way, you can't see what you are doing, since the finger obscures the exact cursor.

Again, for gestural stuff, I can see it happening because it's basically already here. But complex cad, video editing or anything that requires minute control, no way in hell.

Pressure sensitivity would be cool. Do Wacom tablets or anything else today support this?

[Spheric Harlot]

wacom yes - pen only

Originally Posted by downinflames68

But to CREATE anything worthwhile... be it music, art, design, cad, write papers, video editing, and anything that's of decent quality worth consuming, I think the desktop will still exist

Originally Posted by downinflames68

Photoshop could be OKAY, if you were using it for painting... maybe... but even then, a cintiq is better. Until they have accurate pressure sensativity it will be something purely for consumers, not professionals.

Well, I can see pressure sensitivity being a benefit for artists and photo retouchers. But for music, design, cad, write papers, and video editing?

[downinflames68]

You don't see a benefit for pressure sensitivity in music creation!!?!

[Spheric Harlot]

Somewhat.

Actually playing instruments is mostly only useful in a pinch on the iPad; for any serious work, you probably want dedicated controllers.

Multi-touch capability is far more interesting IMO.

[The Godfather]

I can see Android and it's marketplace outgrowing the iPhone, specially if the iPhone remains in exclusive deals with mobile carriers and Android is available everywhere else.
In addition, if Google starts advertising the virtues of Android, this takeover will be even faster.
I don't know if developers are sold on Android, though, given the model fragmentation that prevents "write once, run everywhere", in a worse degree than in iOS devices.

Regarding touch interfacing, I also think that graphic (2D/3D) design with a touch surface is akin to trying to type your dissertation with fat fingers, legendary record breaking fat fingers.
Another interface must one-up the touch screen and be adopted in Cocoa Touch: the touchless interface. It was already demonstrated by Japanese researchers this year. You simply move your finger in the air and a cursor (or ghost finger in the case of Natal) moves accordingly. Clicking is done by finger gesturing.

[Spheric Harlot]

The point of the iOS is that it does away with the cursor.

"Touchless" might be an INPUT alternative (not a new interface design) for production workstations (i.e. anything not iOS), but it wouldn't entail ANY actual enhancement/radical change of the user interface.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

I can see Android and it's marketplace outgrowing the iPhone, specially if the iPhone remains in exclusive deals with mobile carriers and Android is available everywhere else.

CDMA iPhone 4 on Verizon Soon a Reality, Due in January 2011? | Gadgets DNA

Currently, the most dominant supplier of CDMA chipsets in the world is Qualcomm and reports are coming that Apple has placed orders for millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets for a Verizon iPhone 4 (iPhone 5?).

Just rumors, but still...

[The Godfather]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

The point of the iOS is that it does away with the cursor.

"Touchless" might be an INPUT alternative (not a new interface design) for production workstations (i.e. anything not iOS), but it wouldn't entail ANY actual enhancement/radical change of the user interface.

I'll give you that touch interfaces are a radical change for computing. However, what you call enhancement, I call a compromise that was necessary in small handheld screens.
Perhaps consuming activities will find a happy space in iOS, but many creative tasks can't be accomplished with a precision equivalent to patting a 19" inch LCD with a brillo pad.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

I'll give you that touch interfaces are a radical change for computing. However, what you call enhancement, I call a compromise that was necessary in small handheld screens.
Perhaps consuming activities will find a happy space in iOS, but many creative tasks can't be accomplished with a precision equivalent to patting a 19" inch LCD with a brillo pad.

Do you think that touch will become the default input method for most people at some point in the future?

[The Godfather]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Do you think that touch will become the default input method for most people at some point in the future?

Of course, but Touch will be limited to non-office, non-creative activities.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

Of course, but Touch will be limited to non-office, non-creative activities.

I think that it will be the default too, but I don't think that it will necessarily be strictly limited in the way you describe.

[downinflames68]

I do.

[The Godfather]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

I think that it will be the default too, but I don't think that it will necessarily be strictly limited in the way you describe.

If we find out that Disney, Pixar or any of our legislatives is getting creative work done on an iPad, I will change my tune.

[Spheric Harlot]

I'm probably not the only content creator who'd kill for multitouch as an ADDITION - you can already get great controller software for iPad.

Build a way to connect a 13" iPad directly to Logic to eliminate WLAN latency, and keep the rest of the OS more or less as it is, with a mobile client/editor I can use to do rudimentary stuff on the iPad while on the road, and I'm stoked.

That would be a logical next step IMO.

[downinflames68]

I think logic would be much too complex to fumble along on an iPad. Good luck adjusting all the little knobs with your finger. Now, if it was a 20" iPad, maybe.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

I think logic would be much too complex to fumble along on an iPad. Good luck adjusting all the little knobs with your finger. Now, if it was a 20" iPad, maybe.

What if it was really easy to magnify parts of the board?

Larger tablets are of course also a possibility...

[The Godfather]

iLegalpad, 20 straight hours of ambulance chasing.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

I think logic would be much too complex to fumble along on an iPad. Good luck adjusting all the little knobs with your finger. Now, if it was a 20" iPad, maybe.

You do note that I wrote "13" iPad", implying it wouldn't be the current model?

Also, have you ever worked at a mixing console? All those little knobs...

Lastly, the nice thing about a computer screen is that it can change what you see to a form appropriate to working with it.

Check out AC-7 Pro and TouchOSC for good examples of what's possible.

[downinflames68]

Monkee Design - Industrial Design Blog/ Student Resource - Multitouch DJ Light Table�(Explained)

This was pretty freaking amazing.

[besson3c]

Very cool, Rob.

Lots of interesting potential with touch, huh? I suspect we haven't even uncovered half of it...

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by mattyb 

One thing that I'm unsure of is the keyboard. Even the touch devices have keyboards, are we ever going to move away from having some sort of keyboard? I cannot see how programmers (for example) could code without a keyboard.

Currently you're correct, I wouldn't dream of using a touch-based device for programming (although as I can use a bluetooth keyboard with my Nexus One or an iPad, it's not that huge of a limitation), but as we get more experienced with designing touch interfaces, I think even that limitation will be removed.

I've been using Swype for a while now, and it's completely revolutionized the way I use my phone. I used to use it for light consumption and maybe pecking out a short message. But with Swype, I often find myself writing long emails and such without even thinking about it. Combine that with a good programmer's text editor and a custom programming keyboard dictionary (so that the 'keyboard' would be context- and syntax- aware and know what all the keywords for the current programming language are), and I think it could actually be an improvement over programming with a keyboard.

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by downinflames68 

I think logic would be much too complex to fumble along on an iPad. Good luck adjusting all the little knobs with your finger. Now, if it was a 20" iPad, maybe.

You're a designer - where's your imagination? Knobs work in a 3D environment. Use something that works on a screen already.

[downinflames68]

I guess. I'm just saying the 'existing' logic would be godawful to use.