[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

So you're saying they DO include PS3 sales? If not the number are just more FUD from the HD camp.

Um no. You said the Bluray standalone numbers would be low because of the high PS3 sales. I said I think the numbers are probably from before the PS3 price drop, when the PS3 price drop wouldn't have been affecting Bluray standalone sales.

And honestly, where is the long term viability for these PS3 sales? The more they sell, the faster they will sell out, and there are no more 60 gig units coming when they sell out. It's literally a clearance sale.

[Dakarʒ]

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

Well they're going to sell sometime. Whether they all sold now or sold over the next year, they were going to be sold. Either way, X number of units would be sold. The problem is, once these units are gone, there aren't any more. It isn't really a meaningful gain, it just means Sony sells a limited amount of units faster.

If Sony wasn't stupid, they'd notice these units are selling well and keep producing the 60 gig version, then they'd have a limitless supply and they'd keep selling tons of units. But in all likelihood, they won't.

[Dakarʒ]

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

So you're saying they DO include PS3 sales? If not the number are just more FUD from the HD camp.

FUD from the HD camp? As opposed to all the good data and press releases Sony is known for?

Sony and BD are the *kings* of FUD. There is nothing factually wrong with the numbers in the press release I linked to. But feel free to do the research and prove otherwise.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

If all PS3 owners were "trying it once," the numbers would be VASTLY different. But they aren't.

[Dakarʒ]

I didn't say how long it'd take.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

The meaningful gain is having a blu-ray player in homes earlier, where people inevitably try it once. It's a good thing.

Yes, but these units were going to be sold eventually anyway. My point is, either way, Sony is selling X number of PS3 units. This isn't sustainable growth.

Either way, these units were going to be in people's homes for them to try Bluray on. In the grand scheme of things, it's not a big deal. It would be a big deal if Sony had a limitless supply and could sustain this sort of growth. But all that's going to happen is after these sell out, PS3 growth is going to drop like a rock. Again, if this was sustainable growth, it would be impressive.

[Dakarʒ]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yes, but these units were going to be sold eventually anyway. My point is, either way, Sony is selling X number of PS3 units. This isn't sustainable growth.

Earlier is better GoMac! How hard is that to understand?

Why would Sony or Blu-Ray want to sell x amount of consoles/titles later rather than now?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

Earlier is better GoMac! How hard is that to understand?

Why would Sony or Blu-Ray want to sell x amount of consoles/titles later rather than now?

Yes, earlier is better if it means there is going to be long term growth. So yes, Sony is creating a nice base for growth, and then taking away the catalyst. Does that make sense on Sony's part? Not so much. If Sony was continuing to produce the 60 gig unit, I would agree, and say, why yes Dakar, all those 60 gig units that Sony is selling now could inspire other people to buy 60 gig PS3's. But unfortunately, soon the 60 gig PS3 will cease to exist.

In fact, what is more likely to happen is that people will go to the store, look for the cheap PS3 that no longer exists, and instead see an even cheaper HD-DVD player and buy that instead... If this has made anything clear, it's that the price of entry for Bluray is definitely hurting Bluray adoption.

[exca1ibur]

Not to mention we have no idea what the plan is once they sell out of the 60GB model. All they have to do is make the 80 NOT a bundle and have it start at $499. You now have the same price point. The fact is we have no idea what they are going to do. I doubt they would chop off the $499 price point, again, especially being that would be around holiday time. Thats borderline suicidal, but we shall see.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

Yes, it'd be much better for Sony if these 60 BG models didn't sell, so there'd be more available for the public to buy.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by exca1ibur 

Not to mention we have no idea what the plan is once they sell out of the 60GB model. All they have to do is make the 80 NOT a bundle and have it start at $499. You now have the same price point. The fact is we have no idea what they are going to do. I doubt they would chop off the $499 price point, again, especially being that would be around holiday time. Thats borderline suicidal, but we shall see.

I would be impressed if Sony dropped the 80 gig PS3 to $499, but I don't see it happening. Sony is still losing money on the PS3, they want to keep the price high. The $499 price point is just where they want to dump old stock. I think Sony is going to hope the PS3 catches on this Christmas and milk it for all it's worth at the $599 price point.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

FUD from the HD camp? As opposed to all the good data and press releases Sony is known for?

Sony and BD are the *kings* of FUD. There is nothing factually wrong with the numbers in the press release I linked to. But feel free to do the research and prove otherwise.

Ya nothing wrong except they purposely exclude data and hope nobody will notice. Funny thing is now every new sources mentions that they are purposely hiding PS3 sales from all sales statistics and they know it would make them look bad.

[Dakarʒ]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yes, earlier is better if it means there is going to be long term growth. So yes, Sony is creating a nice base for growth, and then taking away the catalyst. Does that make sense on Sony's part? Not so much. If Sony was continuing to produce the 60 gig unit, I would agree, and say, why yes Dakar, all those 60 gig units that Sony is selling now could inspire other people to buy 60 gig PS3's. But unfortunately, soon the 60 gig PS3 will cease to exist.

Do you want me to tell you Sony's strategy is inexplicable? Because yes, I agree that it is. But moving consoles sooner than later is good. If people like it, word of mouth will sell others, sooner.

Originally Posted by goMac 

In fact, what is more likely to happen is that people will go to the store, look for the cheap PS3 that no longer exists, and instead see an even cheaper HD-DVD player and buy that instead...

I completely disagree with that. If you go to the store looking for a cheap PS3 and don't find one, chances are you're buying some other game system, be it the 360, Wii, or even the 80GB PS3. Or you just go home.

That is, unless, you believe Analogue's assertion that lots of people are buying PS3s just for the BR drives/HD movies.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ya nothing wrong except they purposely exclude data and hope nobody will notice. Funny thing is now every new sources mentions that they are purposely hiding PS3 sales from all sales statistics and they know it would make them look bad.

Yeah, but they're not including XBox 360 HD-DVD player stats either. They've never included console sales. Say what you will, but they're really not a reliable indicator because not every PS3 will be used as a Bluray player. Heck, they should be including XBox 360 HD-DVD player sales (what else would you use an XBox 360 HD-DVD for?), but they're not.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

Do you want me to tell you Sony's strategy is inexplicable? Because yes, I agree that it is. But moving consoles sooner than later is good. If people like it, word of mouth will sell others, sooner.

Yeah, but when people hear about this $500 game system, they're going to go looking for it and find it's gone. There's no use building interest in a sku that won't exist in a month or two.

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

I completely disagree with that. If you go to the store looking for a cheap PS3 and don't find one, chances are you're buying some other game system, be it the 360, Wii, or even the 80GB PS3. Or you just go home.

Depends. I think that the $600 PS3 moves back out of range of what a consumer is willing to pay (there is a fancier term for this that I learned in micro economics years ago, but I can't remember it for the life of me...). At that point, if they were interested in the PS3 as a Bluray player, they'll probably take a look at HD-DVD's too. If they were interested in it as a game console, my guess is they'd go for the XBox 360 instead. I think only people who were set on a PS3 in the first place will continue to buy the $600 modal after the $500 one sells out.

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

That is, unless, you believe Analogue's assertion that lots of people are buying PS3s just for the BR drives/HD movies.

Given the context of this thread, that's how I'm approaching it. Although I'd be more than willing to give you my opinion of the game side of things in the other thread in the games forum.

[exca1ibur]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I would be impressed if Sony dropped the 80 gig PS3 to $499, but I don't see it happening. Sony is still losing money on the PS3, they want to keep the price high. The $499 price point is just where they want to dump old stock. I think Sony is going to hope the PS3 catches on this Christmas and milk it for all it's worth at the $599 price point.

They are not loosing the same amount of money per system. Kaz Hirai and Jack Trenton have stated that in an interviews at E3, that production is cheaper for the system now. All the systems now have all software emulation, so the ONLY unit with the Emotion Engine is the 60GB here in the US, that is being cleared out, also the price of Bluray drives have dropped quite a bit on the manufacturing. It's have been rumored they are breaking even now on their hardware from a few sources at E3, I doubt it but prob close to it though.

[Dakarʒ]

Good point on 360 add-on.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by exca1ibur 

They are not loosing the same amount of money per system. Kaz Hirai and Jack Trenton have stated that in an interviews at E3, that production is cheaper for the system now. All the systems now have all software emulation, so the ONLY unit with the Emotion Engine is the 60GB here in the US, that is being cleared out, also the price of Bluray drives have dropped quite a bit on the manufacturing. It's have been rumored they are breaking even now on their hardware from a few sources at E3, I doubt it but prob close to it though.

If they're just breaking even, I doubt they'll drop the price at Christmas. They'll want to make some profit somewhere. I have no doubts the production has gotten cheaper, but Sony is still a long ways from the original production cost per unit that they wanted to be originally, especially in since the PS3 has a GPU that wasn't part of the original spec.

[Dakarʒ]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yeah, but when people hear about this $500 game system, they're going to go looking for it and find it's gone. There's no use building interest in a sku that won't exist in a month or two.

Since when do companies build SKU recognition? It's about the product. If they get x amount of people interested in the PS3 because of this, but only get a smaller percentage to buy the more expensive model, that's till better than 0.

Originally Posted by goMac 

Depends. I think that the $600 PS3 moves back out of range of what a consumer is willing to pay (there is a fancier term for this that I learned in micro economics years ago, but I can't remember it for the life of me...). If they were interested in it as a game console, my guess is they'd go for the XBox 360 instead.

This sounds most plausible.

Originally Posted by goMac 

Given the context of this thread, that's how I'm approaching it.

Alright, but I don't buy it either.

Originally Posted by goMac 

Although I'd be more than willing to give you my opinion of the game side of things in the other thread in the games forum.

I'm well aware of where you stand. It's more likely you don't know where I stand.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yeah, but they're not including XBox 360 HD-DVD player stats either.

Good because they are so low it isn't worth mentioning.

Sony expected to lower 80GB PS3 to $499 | PS3 News | GamePro.com

[Eug]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ya nothing wrong except they purposely exclude data and hope nobody will notice. Funny thing is now every new sources mentions that they are purposely hiding PS3 sales from all sales statistics and they know it would make them look bad.

All the companies play the PR game. In fact, I'd say of all of them in this Blu-ray/HD DVD war, Sony and Fox are the most guilty of piling on the PR doodoo.

PS3 sales are significant of course, but that in itself is concerning to the Blu-ray advocates. It's the vast majority of Blu-ray sales, but not enough to kill off HD DVD. And, despite the price drops, Blu-ray standalone player sales is still being blown away by HD DVD standalone player sales. And as the format-neutral Warner states, standalone sales are where the war is going to be won.

At this point however, we're still too early in the game. Q4 2007 is going to be very important though. If Blu-ray can substantially increase standalone sales at the expense of HD DVD standalone sales, then HD DVD is in big trouble. However, if HD DVD standalone sales continue to have this significant advantage over Blu-ray standalone sales, then the Blu-ray manufacturers will be even more worried than they are now.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Dakarʒ 

Since when do companies build SKU recognition? It's about the product. If they get x amount of people interested in the PS3 because of this, but only get a smaller percentage to buy the more expensive model, that's till better than 0.

You're right. Usually customers don't build recognition with a specific sku. But in this case I think that the reason for the high PS3 sales right now is consumers going ZOMG $500 PS3! Which means, yes, consumers are building interest in a specific sku. If consumers were already interested in the PS3 at the $600 price point, they would have already bought. It shouldn't have taken a sale to spur PS3 sales.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Good because they are so low it isn't worth mentioning.

They're lower than PS3 sales, but they're not all that low in the scheme of things.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Sony expected to lower 80GB PS3 to $499 | PS3 News | GamePro.com

I'll believe it when I see it...

[exca1ibur]

Originally Posted by goMac 

If they're just breaking even, I doubt they'll drop the price at Christmas. They'll want to make some profit somewhere. I have no doubts the production has gotten cheaper, but Sony is still a long ways from the original production cost per unit that they wanted to be originally, especially in since the PS3 has a GPU that wasn't part of the original spec.

Where they can earn profit is in software, especially during the holiday, as most of the big titles will be on shelves. By selling at $499 to push more units, you have a bigger market, and sell more software.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by goMac 

In fact, what is more likely to happen is that people will go to the store, look for the cheap PS3 that no longer exists, and instead see an even cheaper HD-DVD player and buy that instead...

I don't think that makes much sense. There are two kinds of PS3 buyers: people who are buying the PS3 primarily for watching movies (I don't think these are as common as some people claim, but surely there are some) and people people who are buying it as a game system with HD movie capabilities.

People in the former group (i.e. early adopters) have already chosen Blu-ray, despite the fact that buying the PS3 (even at $499) represents a significantly higher price than the cheaper HD-DVD players out there. These people are not making their buying decisions based on price, or they would have already chosen HD-DVD. They must be making the decision based on something else (confidence that Blu-ray will win in the end, the greater number of studios, liking the the color blue -- whatever).

People in the latter group (those buying it at least partially as a game system) are certainly not going to be buying an HD-DVD standalone instead. They're totally different products. They might possibly choose another console, but when you look at the only other console that can do HD movies (the 360), you find that the price is at best the same, and it's actually higher when you compare the systems that are closest to the PS3 (Xbox 360 Elite + HD-DVD drive).

Edit: Of course there's a third group, which only wants the PS3 for games and doesn't care about HD video. This might even be the biggest of the three. But they're also the least likely to buy a standalone HD-DVD player instead of a PS3.

[Eug]

P.S. Had Sony released the PS3 on time and at a better price, HD DVD would be in a MUCH tougher spot right now. The launch was Sony's to screw up... and they did.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by Eug 

P.S. Had Sony released the PS3 on time and at a better price, HD DVD would be in a MUCH tougher spot right now. The launch was Sony's to screw up... and they did.

Totally agree there.

[Dakarʒ]

I give the PS3 release an A-

(Obviously I'm on their payroll. Their management sucks out loud)

[exca1ibur]

Originally Posted by Eug 

P.S. Had Sony released the PS3 on time and at a better price, HD DVD would be in a MUCH tougher spot right now. The launch was Sony's to screw up... and they did.

No argument here with that one. Spot on.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Good because they are so low it isn't worth mentioning.

Sony expected to lower 80GB PS3 to $499 | PS3 News | GamePro.com

Pretty sure I read that the XBox360 addon has sold more than any single standalone hd model (blu-ray and hd-dvd). I'll have to dig that up again...

And that article is nothing more than one guy's opinion. Show me something from Sony and *maybe* then I'd believe it. Given their recent moves, maybe not though.

[macintologist]

I honestly think that a 400+ dollar console is a losing formula. The Wii is the clear winner.

[Dakarʒ]

I wouldn't say clear, but it certainly plays to the markets weaknesses.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Eug 

P.S. Had Sony released the PS3 on time and at a better price, HD DVD would be in a MUCH tougher spot right now. The launch was Sony's to screw up... and they did.

And if MS had put an HD drive in the Xbox from the start or at the least the Elite model things might look way better for HD.

[Eug]

The Toshiba HD-A2 standalone 2nd generation HD DVD player is now US$199.99.

That includes free shipping, a free HDMI cable, and those 5 free HD DVDs from Toshiba.

Killer deal.

[Dakarʒ]

This is the death knell of Blu-Ray!!!

(That is a good deal)

[jokell82]

It's a damn good deal. I wonder if that'll lead to $99 sales this holiday season...

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Eug 

The Toshiba HD-A2 standalone 2nd generation HD DVD player is now US$199.99.

That includes free shipping, a free HDMI cable, and those 5 free HD DVDs from Toshiba.

Killer deal.

Personally if they dropped it to $99 it wouldn't matter to me without the studio support.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Personally if they dropped it to $99 it wouldn't matter to me without the studio support.

Right, the fact that BluRay has only 10 more discs released than HD-DVD domestically really shows how that studio support is paying off. Add in the imports you can get of BD exclusives on HD and you have a much bigger selection right now (and more planned releases in the future).

But yeah, you cling to the support of studios that aren't releasing anything on either format.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

Right, the fact that BluRay has only 10 more discs released than HD-DVD domestically really shows how that studio support is paying off.

Ya it is a difference when we are talking about 6 LESS Studio's. So what if they have 10 titles less when most of them are crapola.

Is HD's only stratagy to keep dropping the price or weekly stupid promotions or wouldn't the energy be better spent on getting the studios. That is the only way they will win.

[Kerrigan]

__________________________________________________ ________________________^^^
__________________________________________________ ______________are those real?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

It's a damn good deal. I wonder if that'll lead to $99 sales this holiday season...

I highly doubt it. However, we will see package deals of a TV + HD DVD player for uber cheap methinks.

[Montezuma58]

Originally Posted by Eug 

The Toshiba HD-A2 standalone 2nd generation HD DVD player is now US$199.99.

That includes free shipping, a free HDMI cable, and those 5 free HD DVDs from Toshiba.

Killer deal.

Thank's Eug I put in my order.

Anyone else better hurry if they want the deal. He only has a limited number at this price. He added some more but I suspect those are almost gone.

You can still find it for under $250 at some other sites if you miss this deal.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

So what if they have 10 titles less when most of them are crapola.

Uh, it's a big deal if your "exclusive" studios don't release anything. How many Fox Blu-Rays do you have? What about MGM? Sony wont be able to carry the format by itself once the PS3 bubble bursts.

[Brien]

Although, the same could be said for Universal/HD DVD.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by Brien 

Although, the same could be said for Universal/HD DVD.

No it can't, because Universal is actually releasing movies.

Let's look at this week's releases:
* The Bourne Identity (HD DVD)
* The Contract (HD DVD)
* Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (HD DVD)
* The Host (Blu-ray)
* The Host (HD DVD)
* In Good Company (HD DVD)
* Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps (HD DVD)
* Out for Justice (Blu-ray)
* Out for Justice (HD DVD)
* Purple Rain (Blu-ray)
* Purple Rain (HD DVD)
* Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (HD DVD)
* Scent of a Woman (HD DVD)
* Streets of Fire (HD DVD)
* Weeds: Season Two (Blu-ray)
* Yes: Live at Montreux (HD DVD)

2 Blu-Ray exclusives: a tv show and a santana concert. The rest are all neutral studio releases. Meanwhile there are 7 HD-DVD exclusive releases. Interesting. How about next week?

* 300 (Blu-ray)
* 300 (HD DVD)
* Darkman (HD DVD)
* Hot Fuzz (HD DVD)
* IMAX: Blue Planet (Blu-ray)
* IMAX: Blue Planet (HD DVD)
* IMAX: Roving Mars (Blu-ray)
* Planet Earth (US Version) (Blu-ray)
* Planet Earth (US Version) (HD DVD)
* Sea of Love (HD DVD)
* Shaun of the Dead (HD DVD)
* Shooter (Blu-ray)
* Shooter (HD DVD)

1 BD exclusive, 4 HD-DVD exclusives.

So what exactly is all that "studio support" giving to BD?

[starman]

Ok, I don't want this taken out of fanboi context.

Last night I went out to Best Buy to get this week's releases. I had a choice: Purple Rain on BR or HD-DVD. I've said in the past that if there's a movie on both I pick up the HD-DVD version. However, in the last few weeks I found that the PS3 is a better playback machine than the 360. Downstairs in the Big Room I have standalone players, and the HD-DVD one is VERY slow. So I stood there thinking that I might want to pick up the BR version instead since both the PS3 and the standalone BR player I have are actually better playback machines. So I did. This doesn't mean I'm all of a sudden supporting BR, it's just that the BR machines are better IMO.

[jokell82]

Which HD-DVD player do you have?

No arguments from me about the 360 as a movie player, but I'm not the biggest fan of the PS3 either.

[starman]

The original Toshiba. It's a dog. I can't stand using it. I love the PS3. Very fast and responsive.