[Big Mac]

Here's my hypothesis: The trends of the stock market will forecast with accuracy the outcome of the election. Specifically, if the markets rally today and especially Monday, look for an "upset" victory by underdog John McCain. If the markets falter, then Obama will likely win big, as most polls have suggested. The reason is that investors woke up at some point and stopped supporting Obama due to his unfriendly business attitudes and wealth redistribution proclivities. If the market (i.e. the collective wisdom of market participants) "senses" an Obama victory, it will sell off.

[Eug]

I'm amused that you waited until the pre-market futures were available before making your "prediction".

Anyways, it's interesting to see you seem to agree that Obama will win.

[Big Mac]

Uh, no, I started thinking about this a few days ago. And I don't think he'll win. I believe we're going to close slightly up today.

[Dakar V]

If you're saying Obama is more likely to get elected the worse the dow looks, I don't disagree.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Uh, no, I started thinking about this a few days ago.

YoMama has been gaining vs McBain in the polls in the past week. Yet... The Dow was 8379 at close last week, and right now it's 9182. That's up almost 10%.

[SpaceMonkey]

Humoring your premise: why would everyone sell off now? The bubble has already burst, so it's unlikely that many investors would have gains to pocket, and Obama doesn't take office until January.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

YoMama has been gaining vs McBain in the polls in the past week. Yet... The Dow was 8379 at close last week, and right now it's 9182. That's up almost 10%.

Over the course of the last week he started giving back many of the gains as the began to tighten into the home stretch.

To SpaceMonkey: The markets are a leading indicator of future economic conditions.

[SpaceMonkey]

But most of the big institutional investors (the ones who really drive the market to any significant degree, like pension plans) who would get out and convert holdings to cash under your scenario already have.

[Wiskedjak]

There is no question that the markets will do something based upon a guessed-at outcome of the election.
There is no question that the markets will react to the actual outcome of the election.
There is no question that some players in the market will begin selling stock if they think the rest of the market will react negatively to the election.
There is no question that some players in the market will begin buying stock if they think the rest of the market will react positively to the election.
There is no question that some players in the market will begin selling stock if they think that some other players in the market will begin selling stock if they think the rest of the market will react negatively to the election.
There is no question that some players in the market will begin buying stock if they think that some other players in the market will begin buying stock if they think the rest of the market will react positively to the election.

Where there *is* question is what the market perceives as positive or negative outcomes to the election. You're operating off of an assumption that the market shares your political opinion.

[Big Mac]

I think if you took a survey, most market participants would now agree that Obama's policies appear to be much more market hostile than McCain's. The strange thing is, Obama was able to attract a lot of money from Wall Street in the summer, and back then most were saying that Wall Street was pulling for Obama. I think there has been a decided shift away from him after all the anti-investor defining of himself he did in the course of this campaign.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I think if you took a survey, most market participants would now agree that Obama's policies appear to be much more market hostile than McCain's. The strange thing is, Obama was able to attract a lot of money from Wall Street in the summer, and back then most were saying that Wall Street was pulling for Obama. I think there has been a decided shift away from him after all the anti-investor defining of himself he did in the course of this campaign.

I think you're just grasping at straws again.

Not sure why. Maybe cuz you finally know in your heart-of-hearts that the momentum is behind Obama, and if the markets tank, you'll have some I-told-you-so argument to rub in people's noses, even though that argument won't make much sense in the context of the greater market.

However, if Obama wins, and the markets either go sideways or go up, what will you say then?

[Doofy]

I'm waiting until Wednesday to buy stuff off the US - got a feeling that the dollar is going to tank.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

I'm waiting until Wednesday to buy stuff off the US - got a feeling that the dollar is going to tank.

Well, I bought something from the US yesterday.

I hope the US dollar does decrease in value, and wouldn't be surprised it if does since there appears to be a little bit of a US$ mini-bubble right now.

However, I hope to see any bigger moves happen later on, perhaps in December.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I think if you took a survey, most market participants would now agree that Obama's policies appear to be much more market hostile than McCain's.

Maybe. But, you're still making an assumption based on zero data.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I think you're just grasping at straws again.

It's just an hypothesis.

Not sure why. Maybe cuz you finally know in your heart-of-hearts that the momentum is behind Obama, and if the markets tank, you'll have some I-told-you-so argument to rub in people's noses, even though that argument won't make much sense in the context of the greater market.

You will only believe in my prediction if this markets stay positive going into the election and then McCain wins, as I have predicted.

However, if Obama wins, and the markets either go sideways or go up, what will you say then?

I'll say I was wrong.

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Maybe. But, you're still making an assumption based on zero data.

Not zero, just no scientific data. I have strong anecdotal evidence in the form of sentiments expressed on CNBC, which was pro-Obama in the summer and is now pessimistic about the fallout from his projected win on Tuesday.

[Eug]

Dow - 9,625.28 +305.45 (3.28%)
S&P 500 - 1,005.75 +39.45 (4.08%)
Nasdaq - 1,780.12 +53.79 (3.12%)

I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking tomorrow though. Still, I would expect the Dow to close over 10000 relatively soon.

[Eug]

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Advance as Obama Wins U.S. Presidency; BHP Rises

Asian stocks gained, lifting the benchmark index to a three-week high, as Barack Obama was elected the 44th president of the U.S.

Toyota Motor Corp., which gets the biggest portion of its sales from North America, added 8.1 percent amid speculation the new U.S. president will strengthen measures to overcome a recession in the world's largest economy. BHP Billiton Ltd. rose 5.4 percent after oil soared 10 percent and metals prices climbed. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. surged 16 percent as money market rates fell, indicating credit markets are thawing out.

``Markets have been incredibly oversold and the elections are a catalyst for people to get back in,'' said Lee King Fuei, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management, which oversees about $200 billion in assets globally. ``Asia looks very attractive at this moment. A lot of the recession fears have been priced in.'' He said he's been buying stocks, without being more specific.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 4.3 percent to 94.13 as of 1:16 p.m. in Tokyo, paring its slump this year to 40 percent. All but one of the measure's 10 industry groups rose. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 2.8 percent to 9,371.67.

All markets open for trading advanced, except in the Philippines. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 6.5 percent, led by PCCW Ltd., after the company's two largest shareholders said they would make a $1.9 billion bid to buy out other investors.

---

I wonder if this will stimulate a rally in North America (and Europe) on the 5th. I'm looking for AAPL to hit $125ish before I sell (which I'd like to do sooner rather than later).

---

Bloomberg: Dollar Gains Against Euro After Obama Victory in U.S. Election

The dollar gained against the euro on speculation Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election and Democrat gains in Congress will accelerate policies aimed at overcoming a recession.

The currency also rose against the British pound and the Australian dollar as television networks projected 338 electoral votes for Obama to 156 for Republican rival John McCain, who conceded defeat. The Democrats won four Senate seats from the Republicans. The euro declined versus the yen after European Central Bank member Juergen Stark signaled support for further interest-rate cuts to bolster the region's shrinking economy.

``This is a victory by a big margin and suggests a stable government, making it easy for Obama to conduct policy,'' said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo. ``The dollar is likely to be bought further.''

The dollar rose to $1.2842 per euro at 1:43 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.2981 late yesterday in New York. It was quoted at 99.50 yen from 99.70 yen. The euro fell to 127.76 yen from 129.47. The dollar may climb to $1.25 versus the euro this week, Uchida forecast.

The U.S. currency advanced to 68.76 U.S. cents per Australian dollar from 69.88 and gained to $1.5802 against the pound from $1.5956. The victory puts Obama and his party in firm control of the federal government for the first time since the early 1990s.

---

It'd also be nice if the US$ gained against the CAD$ temporarily too, so when I do sell that AAPL, I'll get more CAD$ in the currency exchange.

[Big Mac]

The point is, the markets faltered after confirmation of his win, FWIW & FTW.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

The point is, the markets faltered after confirmation of his win, FWIW & FTW.

His win has been solid for months now, very few people thought McCain could pull it off. Polls with (those liberal) facts and science behind them were nuts on and intrade and everyone else knew this.

No surprise here. We are in a recession (most parts of the US) and depression, this is historically what the markets do, and no matter who won this is what they will continue to do until we hit bottom or start to gain in the GDP & Jobs.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

The point is, the markets faltered after confirmation of his win, FWIW & FTW.

Hah. I knew you'd change the goal posts. I was waiting for it.

The trends of the stock market will forecast with accuracy the outcome of the election. Specifically, if the markets rally today and especially Monday, look for an "upset" victory by underdog John McCain. If the markets falter, then Obama will likely win big, as most polls have suggested.

[Big Mac]

The Bear returns two days in a row. Nice job, Barack morons. My underlying hypothesis that the market could be a leading indicator was wrong, but the market's response to a Barack Hussein Obama victory is, in my view, undeniable. Look for DOW 5000 if he gets his economic agenda through.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

The Bear returns two days in a row. Nice job, Barack morons.

And it has nothing to do with Obama.

If McCain had been elected, the numbers would have still fallen because of higher than expected job loss numbers and other worsening economic indicators.

The fact of the matter is that at the moment, neither one winning is going to have any influence on the market over the short term.

Give it a while before you declare whether you were right or wrong. It's still too early yet.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

The Bear returns two days in a row. Nice job, Barack morons.

DOWn DOWn deeper and DOWn... ...la la la.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

And it has nothing to do with Obama.

If McCain had been elected, the numbers would have still fallen because of higher than expected job loss numbers and other worsening economic indicators.

You keep telling yourself that.

[Big Mac]

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now. We're a country of greater than 50% idiots.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now.

Hate is a waste of energy which would be better used to hide your assets from the pantywaists.

[Big Mac]

But where am I going to go, Doofy? England? I don't think that will improve things for me.

[Doofy]

Oh, you edited. So here goes:

Originally Posted by Person Man 

The fact of the matter is that at the moment, neither one winning is going to have any influence on the market over the short term.

I know of a *lot* of people who moved their assets out of the US yesterday morning on hearing the news of the winner. It's "head for the hills" time in investor land. Hence, your Dow is having mucho fun these last two days.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

But where am I going to go, Doofy? England? I don't think that will improve things for me.

Oooo. No no no. England is as fsked as the US is. Somewhere Spanish speaking would be nice.

[besson3c]

Big Mac: you are experiencing what many of us did 4 and/or 8 years ago. My heartfelt sympathies.

Sincerely,

A Barack Moron

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now. We're a country of greater than 50% idiots.

Wow, shades of liberals circa 2004®

I suppose you're a little more emotional because you're in this industry being hardest hit, correct?

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Oooo. No no no. England is as fsked as the US is. Somewhere Spanish speaking would be nice.

I'm surprised you haven't mentioned Russia.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Wow, shades of liberals circa 2004®

I suppose you're a little more emotional because you're in this industry being hardest hit, correct?

To an extent, that's true. The market will rebound in a few days so it's not this two day (so far) downturn that bothers me. It's what we'll see a year and two years from now on the market. The wealth destruction will be immense, and those with large pools of wealth overseas will buy large quantities of the low hanging fruit - the stock of quality companies that will get sold off by Americans. As for liberal sentiments from 2004, we'll just see what a Barack Hussein Obama command and control economy looks like. I'm not hopeful.

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now.

I am sorry you have so much hate in your heart. Even when Bush won the second time I never got to the point of hating those who voted for him. As for me, I am so thoroughly PROUD of the United States right now. I feel proud in a way I have not felt in a long time. I am proud with the expectation that Barack Obama will irrevocably denounce the practice of torture, any torture, by the United States. I am proud with the expectation that Barack Obama will put an end to spying on Americans my their own government. I am proud proud with the expectation Barack Obama will work to repeal the Patriot Act and all the onerous travel restrictions that go along with it. If he does not do these things I will return to being ashamed of my country for believing that sacrificing personal liberty is an adequate exchange for personal safety.


As for you, Doofy. I don't think this country should have any tax shelters. I don't think there should be a way for any citizen to have income that is not assessed for tax payment services. I am in favor of a flat-tax but think every source of income (salary/wages, investment income, capital gains, family gifts, etc.) should be subject to the flat tax. I think the flat-tax should apply to every penny of accrued value a person gains within a given tax year. Essentially, I think the flat-tax should apply to a person's net worth increases in a given tax year, with maybe an exception for a primary residence, but just maybe. So, we make the flat-tax in the 10%-15% range, make every person living in the country pay that percentage on every penny of money they take in that year, and allow the government to spend only what they took in.*

*I would never advocate for a change to the tax code without a corresponding change to the Constitution that required the US to have a balanced budget every year.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by dcmacdaddy 

As for you, Doofy. I don't think this country should have any tax shelters.

The people whose money is propping up your Dow disagree with you.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by dcmacdaddy 

I am sorry you have so much hate in your heart. Even when Bush won the second time I never got to the point of hating those who voted for him. As for me, I am so thoroughly PROUD of the United States right now. I feel proud in a way I have not felt in a long time.

Then I'm sorry to say it, but you know what I think of you and your level of intelligence.

I am proud with the expectation that Barack Obama will irrevocably denounce the practice of torture, any torture, by the United States.

If American lives could be saved by torturing an enemy foreign national and the feds don't do it because of some misplaced sense of morality, the blood of innocent Americans is on their hands.

I am proud that Barack Obama will put an end to spying on Americans my their own government.

Yet he voted for telecom immunity.

I am proud that Barack Obama will work to repeal the Patriot Act and all the onerous travel restrictions that go along with it.

Yet he voted to reauthorize it.

If he does not do these things I will return to being ashamed of my country for believing that sacrificing personal liberty is an adequate exchange for personal safety.

You should be ashamed of yourself right now for being so gullible.

I am in favor of a flat-tax but think every source of income (salary/wages, investment income, capital gains, family gifts, etc.) should be subject to the flat tax. I think the flat-tax should apply to every penny of accrued value a person gains within a given tax year. Essentially, I think the flat-tax should apply to a person's net worth increases in a given tax year, with maybe an exception for a primary residence, but just maybe.

Never, ever, going to happen under the guy you're so proud of. Barack Hussein Obama's highest aspiration is simply to tax the wealthy into oblivion and destroy most other forms of wealth. Then we can take our place in the family of nations as a vanquished, third world, Socialist country. Congratulations.

[Uncle Skeleton]

I have to say that Big Mac has gotten A LOT more fun to read since he, uh, went off the deep end. I just can't get enough. Keep 'em coming, Biggy!

Just, keep in mind that the Secret Service is probably keeping an eye out, so don't say anything you can't take back.

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Never, ever, going to happen under the guy you're so proud of. Barack Hussein Obama's highest aspiration is simply to tax the wealthy into oblivion and destroy most other forms of wealth. Then we can take our place in the family of nations as a vanquished, third world, Socialist country. Congratulations.

I am quite content with, and actively desire, the idea of the United State being reduced to less-than-super-power status both financially and militarily. I have no problem with, and actively desire, the United States to play a greatly reduced role on the global stage as financial bell-wether and military power-house. I would be quite happy if the United States goes through a period of radical social and financial destabilization whereby we become like a minor European or Asian country with smaller GDP, less overall wealth, and less variance in wealth between the very poor and super-rich. I have NO problem with that whatsoever. I would be quite happy if the United States goes through a period of radical social and financial destabilization if the outcome of that destabilization is a country with much smaller national debt, much lower levels of personal debt, a majority of our GDP based on producing real, tangible goods and not simply on consumption of other country's produced goods, and every American citizen having access to regular, affordable health-care through a nation-wide health-care system.

I for one would welcome that massive contraction in our nation's wealth. I think as a nation we have been living beyond our means for over three decades now and collectively we all need to reign in our spending and live as the modestly successful country that we are. I will welcome an end to the perception that the United States is the "greatest country on earth". I categorically reject such ideas as fundamentally un-sound--there can be no one best country on the whole planet--and look forward to the day when Americans can be proud of their country without engaging in ridiculously irrational, jingoistic blather.

And the way I think this will all come about is that Barack Obama and subsequent liberal President's will try to implement some of these plans. And over-time the struggle between those parts of the country that want a more inclusive, collectivist, egalitarian way of living will come into conflict with those parts of the country that want an individualist, every-person-for-themselves way of living. And by conflict I mean actual battle and warfare. In my life-time I fully expect to see another Civil War in this country and I expect it be based on economic ideology. I expect/hope the outcome of such a Civil War will be a country divided geographically; I expect/hope to see the United States break up into several smaller regional nations (unions of states) based on differing sets of economic and social policy/ideology.

[Atheist]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now. We're a country of greater than 50% idiots.

HAHAHAHA that's some funny s%*t. How old are you? 12?

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

Just, keep in mind that the Secret Service is probably keeping an eye out, so don't say anything you can't take back.

I haven't written anything at all that's of a threatening nature to anyone. Are you saying there's no longer the freedom in the United States to express hate? Is free speech a "hate crime" now?

[TheWOAT]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now. We're a country of greater than 50% idiots.

Funny, I feel the same way towards the millions of idiot homeowners, real estate agents, banks, lenders, and regulators who got us into this possible economic depression. they ruined us more than any administration could...

50% idiots? You aint one of them elitist democrats are you?

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I haven't written anything at all that's of a threatening nature to anyone. Are you saying there's no longer the freedom in the United States to express hate? Is free speech a "hate crime" now?

You read me wrong. I'm encouraging your hate speech, not decrying it. It's HILARIOUS. But I don't want any harm to come to you, least of all for the purposes of my entertainment. So that's why I reminded you not to go too far, BEFORE it's too late. To put it another way, I'm not going to pull my punches just because you're being a whiny drama queen, but I don't want to get you in trouble over it (or contribute to you getting yourself in trouble).

Now give us some more crazy! You'd better get it all out before January, because it's unpatriotic to criticize the president during a war. Don't be an America-hater, Big Mac!

If that doesn't float your boat, why don't you try explaining your "morons" hypothesis to the long list of Nobel scientists that endorsed Obama. Did you ever post in that thread?

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

If that doesn't float your boat, why don't you try explaining your "morons" hypothesis to the long list of Nobel scientists that endorsed Obama. Did you ever post in that thread?

No. I suppose it's comforting on some level to know I'm more intelligent than nobel laureates.

[osiris]

As much as I would like to further partake in the bashing going on, I think we should extend Big Mac (and other like-minded individuals) a week long grieving period - a little cooling down time, perhaps.

One of my closest friends is going through the same ordeal. After I laughed at him (with both hands on my hips), he nearly cried. It was then that I realized he needed a little break. So I hugged him, bought him a pizza and some beer, he called me a few choice expletives in thanks, and I sent him on his way.

[MindFad]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Okay, I'm going to say it. I hate every single person who voted for him. Every single person. Say whatever you want, but I hate them. Hate. Them. Every single one. I'm so thoroughly ashamed of the United States right now. We're a country of greater than 50% idiots.

Well, if that ain't the political equivalent of a screaming and crying brat in the candy aisle.... Obvious Kool Aid and lollipop jokes aside ... it's discouraging, but I feel compelled to take intellectually (and emotionally?) childlike turds such as yourself seriously from time to time. Maybe it's time to get some fresh air, huh?

Was that too harsh?

[MindFad]

lolturds

[Big Mac]

Well, today was the sixth straight day of losses for the stock market since Barack Hussein Obama was confirmed President Elect. Tomorrow will likely mark the seventh.

[besson3c]

Damnit, I knew we shouldn't have elected him! HOW DARE HE let the stock market fall for 6 whole days while he is not president yet in a time where the stock market is failing due to the policies of the party his opponent John McCain supported?

[Big Mac]

If it helps you to sleep better at night to ignorantly believe that Democrats have little or no share of the blame for the crisis we're in, then I won't break your delusion.

[besson3c]

Is that your "look, something shiny!" distraction argument? If both Republicans and Democrats are to blame for this crisis, why does 6 days of the market matter? Those 6 days could be attributed to a gazillion different variables, or it could be virtually random.

I told you before the election that you should let up on your intense investment to see Obama and the Democrats fail, because many of us went through that sort of attachment in 2000 and 2004 only to be disappointed. This really isn't a healthy thing you have going on, Big Mac. If you want to attribute everything you possibly can to Obama for the next long 4+ years, be my guest, but you'll be no better than all of those Democrats I know you chided for blaming everything on Bush.

[Big Mac]

Things aren't always in the infinite shades of gray that you and those like you see them in. Elections matter. Elections have implications. And the implications of the Obama presidency are very negative for the wealth that's left in America. The left engineered this crisis, blamed it on Republicans quite successfully, and now we've got a leftist radical president and a potentially fillibuster proof Senate majority that will finish the job of substantially impoverishing America if Americans allow it to happen. "It's time to jump in; time to be patriotic," and fork over nearly all of your wealth to the United Socialist States of America, or see it evaporate in the market.