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GOP obstructionism
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besson3c
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Mar 25, 2016, 12:26 PM
 
Thought this might be worth a quick revisit...

There were, I believe, some of you in the past that argued that the GOP was doing more than being obstructionist. What say you now?

There is an opportunity to win a national election. Where is the replacement health care plan and adequate party support? Where is entitlement reform? Immigration? Where is anything particularly constructive? I wouldn't be surprised if something was proposed, but would you agree that this hasn't been marketed and brought to the public the way it ought to have been?

Is the GOP the party of no, currently? If so, if the GOP wins this election are you prepared for the Democrats to possibly become the party of no in retaliation?
     
subego
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Mar 25, 2016, 12:48 PM
 
The only question here is will a Democrat being obstructionist get voters into the polls.

My two-bit analysis of voting Democrats says the only kind of obstructionism they like is obstruction of dismantling social programs.
     
The Final Dakar
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Mar 25, 2016, 01:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
The only question here is will a Democrat being obstructionist get voters into the polls.

My two-bit analysis of voting Democrats says the only kind of obstructionism they like is obstruction of dismantling social programs.
Equal rights.
     
subego
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Mar 25, 2016, 01:27 PM
 
Huh?
     
reader50
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Mar 25, 2016, 03:02 PM
 
I've been noticing the FCC votes. Each time a consumer-friendly proposal comes up, we get a straight party-line vote.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Mar 25, 2016, 04:06 PM
 
The GOP has spent years creating a political environment for themselves where they don't have to do anything new, just promise to undo whatever the Dems have done.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Dork.
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Mar 28, 2016, 09:45 PM
 
The problem is that politicians have stopped caring about governing and are more concerned about winning.

It looks like the GOP is going to collapse into a steaming heap, and we're going to have another Clinton in the White House. What we will need moving forward is another Newton Leroy Gingrich, Ph.D., in Congress. Someone who will be willing to work with the opposition to advance his agenda. Someone who will get stuff done, and not just spend his entire term raising money to get re-elected.

Could Paul Ryan be that guy? Maybe, although he's fallen behind Newton Leroy in the extra-marital affairs department. He's got to kick it up a notch.
     
subego
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Mar 28, 2016, 10:36 PM
 
Pretend I posted the Ryan pancake ab painting.

The one with Ayn Rand and the bunny.
     
The Final Dakar
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Mar 29, 2016, 12:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Pretend I posted the Ryan pancake ab painting.

The one with Ayn Rand and the bunny.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 12:27 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
It looks like the GOP is going to collapse into a steaming heap, and we're going to have another Clinton in the White House.
Not if Bernie has a couple more great weekends.

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P
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Mar 29, 2016, 07:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Not if Bernie has a couple more great weekends.

This is not out of the question, but it is quite unlikely. Bernie has some real catching up to do.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:10 AM
 
Dork., you seem very obsessed with Ph.D. Newton Gingrich. Are you his son?
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 12:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
This is not out of the question, but it is quite unlikely. Bernie has some real catching up to do.
If it weren't for the superdelegates...
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OAW
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Mar 29, 2016, 12:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
If it weren't for the superdelegates...
Actually .... no. Bernie has a long row to hoe even if you take the super delegates out of the equation.



Bernie Sanders is likely to start racking up a series of victories over the next two to three weeks as the Democratic primary heads out West.

The big problem for Sanders is that many of the states where he is expected to do well are small. So while his supporters might be thrilled to see him on a hot streak, it's unlikely that even substantial wins will do much to change the underlying math of the race.

"Even if he wins every state from here on out, he probably couldn't catch [Hillary] Clinton in terms of pledged delegates," says Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "The math is really, really daunting."

Sanders could win the remaining primaries by 55 percent and the remaining caucuses by 65 percent and still finish well behind Clinton, who is currently leading by around 300 pledged delegates, according to Kondik. (Vox's Andrew Prokop found Sanders needed to win about 58 percent of the remaining delegates to catch Clinton.)

"If he's winning 70, 75 percent of the vote in these places, maybe it changes the calculus a little bit. He needs what seems to be unrealistically high margins in the remaining states to catch Clinton," Kondik said.
After the favorable Sanders stretch ending on April 9, the terrain shifts back to favoring Clinton. There's the April 19 primary in New York, where she was senator for eight years, followed by a slate of Democratic establishment-friendly states on April 26 including Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Combined, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland put 531 delegates at stake. That's compared with the 265 delegates available in the all of the eight next contests that should be favorable to Sanders.

There's going to be some positive spin coming from Sanders's campaign if he wins a sweep over the next two to three weeks in the West and in Arizona. But all of that will be mostly noise unless he can do something to move ahead in other parts of the map.

"He would need to win some of these big states by big margins," Abramowitz said. "And I doubt he can do that."
Bernie Sanders is set to win several states. Will they be enough? - Vox

Given the fact that the Dem process involves proportional allocation of pledged delegates Bernie is highly unlikely to catch Hillary at this stage in the game. Keep in mind that Hillary is further ahead of Bernie at this point with pledged delegates than Obama was of Hillary in 2008. And we see how well that worked out for her.

OAW
     
The Final Dakar
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Mar 29, 2016, 01:00 PM
 
Guys, He's been pushing this narrative all primary. Notice he STFU till Bernie wn a few caucuses this weekend.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 01:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
Actually .... no. Bernie has a long row to hoe even if you take the super delegates out of the equation.
No. W/o superdelegates it's currently 1256 to 1019.
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Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 01:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Guys, He's been pushing this narrative all primary. Notice he STFU till Bernie wn a few caucuses this weekend.
Who is doing what?
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Mar 29, 2016, 02:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
No. W/o superdelegates it's currently 1256 to 1019.
That's exactly what the image OAW posted says, in the light grey (pledged). He needs to win the remaining states by about 10 points in total to even draw equal without the supers, and there is nothing to indicate that he is 10 points ahead.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 02:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
That's exactly what the image OAW posted says, in the light grey (pledged). He needs to win the remaining states by about 10 points in total to even draw equal without the supers, and there is nothing to indicate that he is 10 points ahead.
His wins in 3 of the previous 4 states were well beyond the poll numbers.
"I have a dream, that my four little children will one day live in a
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P
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Mar 29, 2016, 04:28 PM
 
He does well in caucuses, but there aren't too many of those left.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
The Final Dakar
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Mar 29, 2016, 04:39 PM
 
Caucuses don't get polled because they're unreliable. Probably because of the meeting aspect.
     
OAW
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Mar 29, 2016, 04:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
His wins in 3 of the previous 4 states were well beyond the poll numbers.
Perhaps this bears repeating in case you missed the analysis I posted above:

"If he's winning 70, 75 percent of the vote in these places, maybe it changes the calculus a little bit. He needs what seems to be unrealistically high margins in the remaining states to catch Clinton," Kondik said.
Again, given the proportional allocation of the pledged delegates ... there simply isn't any evidence to suggest that Bernie has a marginal support advantage at a level high enough to close the existing pledged delegate deficit.

OAW
     
Waragainstsleep
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Mar 29, 2016, 06:05 PM
 
I have to ask: Can these super delegates change their minds?

I'm guessing people with ambition don't want to be seen voting for the eventual loser. If they think he might win, or that Hilary might be in real trouble over the email incident, could they decide the wind has changed direction and follow suit?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
OAW
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Mar 29, 2016, 07:28 PM
 
^^^

Absolutely. The pledged delegates must vote based upon who won their states. The super delegates can do whatever they want. Hey aren't obligated to vote for any particular candidate and can change their mind at any time. In fact, many super delegates that were supporting Clinton during the 2008 primary switched to Obama once he won the Iowa caucus. It's conceivable that the super delegates could switch en masse from Clinton to Sanders but it's highly unlikely that this group ... which consists of the Democratic "establishment" would be inclined to suddenly support someone who has been running against them throughout the primary season. I just don't see it happening unless something causes a complete collapse of the Clinton campaign.

OAW
     
Dork.
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Dork., you seem very obsessed with Ph.D. Newton Gingrich. Are you his son?
I'm not going to debate you until you change your tone.
     
Dork.
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
The pledged delegates must vote based upon who won their states.
In the event no one candidate reaches the delegate threshold, and it goes to multiple rounds of voting, then the pledged delegates are allowed to change their vote. It varies from state to state, but some states only bind their delegates for one vote, and others state a certain number of votes. And I don't believe they are limited to voting for candidates that appeared on the primary ballots.

So what I'm saying is that Newton Leroy still has a chance....
     
OAW
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
In the event no one candidate reaches the delegate threshold, and it goes to multiple rounds of voting, then the pledged delegates are allowed to change their vote. It varies from state to state, but some states only bind their delegates for one vote, and others state a certain number of votes. And I don't believe they are limited to voting for candidates that appeared on the primary ballots.

So what I'm saying is that Newton Leroy still has a chance....
Actually I was speaking about the rules on the Democratic side. The GOP side is another ball of wax and honestly I don't know all the particulars offhand. But what you are saying seems in line with the basic gist of the GOP process in the case of the primary season concluding without a candidate with enough delegates to secure the nomination.

OAW
     
Dork.
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:25 PM
 
I think it's the same on the Democratic side, the only difference is that the presence of superdelegates makes it extremely unlikely that the Democratic nomination will go several votes.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Mar 29, 2016, 09:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
Perhaps this bears repeating in case you missed the analysis I posted above:

Again, given the proportional allocation of the pledged delegates ... there simply isn't any evidence to suggest that Bernie has a marginal support advantage at a level high enough to close the existing pledged delegate deficit.
Nope, I just believe the analysis is garbage and based on polling data that lately has been terribly inaccurate. Vox has made it quite clear they're behind Clinton, no matter what.
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OAW
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Mar 29, 2016, 10:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Nope, I just believe the analysis is garbage and based on polling data that lately has been terribly inaccurate. Vox has made it quite clear they're behind Clinton, no matter what.
If you don't agree with the analysis that's fair enough. But let's not try to make it about Vox. The analysis was provided by Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The article was quoting him.

OAW
     
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Mar 30, 2016, 04:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Nope, I just believe the analysis is garbage and based on polling data that lately has been terribly inaccurate. Vox has made it quite clear they're behind Clinton, no matter what.
If you ignore all polling and simply base your analysis on fundamentals - ie, assume that future states will vote like the past states with the most similar demographics - it looks even worse for Bernie.

Perhaps a sports metaphor is useful here. The GOP race looks like an NFL game where one side is far ahead. It sure looks like Trump is winning, but there is a chance for a hail mary, because of the way the delegate allocation works and the way the voting at the convention works. The Democratic race on the other hand is like an F1 race, with Hillary a few seconds ahead. It isn't over, she could make a mistake or run out of gas or maybe her tires give out, but unless something changes, she will pass the finish line first. Bernie is close behind, but he isn't really catching up - and even if he does start to catch up he has some ways to go, and overtaking is tricky because of airflow over the diffusers (superdelegates).
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
OAW
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Mar 30, 2016, 01:20 PM
 
^^^^

To follow up on these comments see the interactive chart here and model it for yourself ...

Clinton’s Growing Delegate Lead Is Nearly Unbeatable | NYTimes.com

Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally by congressional district, and in states that have voted so far, Mrs. Clinton has won more than half of the vote on average.

For Mr. Sanders to overtake Mrs. Clinton, he would need to win the remaining races with an average of more than 60 percent of the vote.
Now that isn't a matter of opinion ... it's a simple matter of math. So let's consider that in light of the actual track record. The following are the only contests where Bernie has cracked 60%:

New Hampshire (60.4%) - Primary state. New England.
Minnesota (61.6%) - Caucus state
Vermont (86.1%) - Primary state. New England. Home state.
Kansas (67.7%) - Caucus state
Maine (64.3%) - Caucus state. New England.
Idaho (78%) - Caucus state.
Utah (79.3%) - Caucus state.
Alaska (81.6%) - Caucus state.
Hawaii (69.8%) - Caucus state.
Washington (72.7%) - Caucus state.

As we can see Bernie gets into this territory primarily in caucus states. The only primaries are his home state of Vermont and a neighboring New England state. And most of these states have very small populations and the Democratic primary electorate is overwhelmingly white. That's simply where he has the most strength. So what are the remaining caucus states in the Democratic primary and their available # of pledged delegates?

Wyoming - 14
Guam - 7
Virgin Islands - 7
Puerto Rico - 60
North Dakota - 18

Now compare that to just this select list of the remaining primary states and their available # of pledged delegates?

Wisconsin - 86
New York - 247
Maryland - 95
Pennsylvania - 189
Indiana - 83
California - 475
New Jersey - 126

Along with the primary states where Bernie won already with the next highest %?

Oklahoma - 51.9%
Michigan - 49.8%

Like I said. Bernie has a serious uphill battle to win the Democratic nomination. Any way you slice it.

OAW
     
   
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