[Big Mac]

Facebook (FB) debuted as a publicly traded company, trading as low as the initial offer of $38.00 (with exchange glitches being blamed, rightly or wrongly) to its current price at $40.50. It's up about 7%, which is not insignificant but is a far cry from the huge pop some were expecting. Some are saying it was priced just right, whereas others think it was too expensive.

We have a number of great market prognosticators around here. So any guesses as to where it's going from here? Will it be higher or lower a year from now?

Oh, and Bono made a cool Billion off the deal. Good for him.

[turtle777]

I don't know who said it, but I agreed:

We're going to see $20 before we're going to see $100.

I'm not bullish for the future. They really haven't figured out how o monetize.
Mobile aside, the click-rates are horrible, ads are basically exposure only.
This doesn't qualify the current valuation.

-t

[Eug]

Closed at $38.23. Up 23 cents for the day.

You can bet too that the underwriters threw in their own money to support that price.

[turtle777]

LOL, yeah, it's pretty bad.

However, since trading started at 11 EDT, Europe was maybe not participating as much as they would during normal trading hours,
So who knows, there might be a small pop on Monday.

From thereon, it's going down.

-t

[turtle777]

Well, there we go. Morgan Stanley probably owns most of Facebook

Facebook underwriters prop up stock - latimes.com

-t

[Spheric Harlot]

I dunno about the rest of Europe, but in Germany, sentiment seems to be

a) "Another tech-bubble stock? **** NO." Millions of Germans lost a good part of their pensions on the way over-hyped Telekom stock.

b) "A company whose entire business is built around privacy violation and abuse of personal data? How can I lose? I don't ****ing trust them; how the hell do I trust their stock." See also point a).

It will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Well, there we go. Morgan Stanley probably owns most of Facebook

Facebook underwriters prop up stock - latimes.com

So, a Facebook bailout, so its fabricated net worth doesn't drop below $100 billion. Nice.

Really... WTF is wrong with these people?

[turtle777]

Can't wait for Monday, this is going to be fun.

-t

[Eug]

The Facebook IPO, animated:

Facebook IPO video: shares at crazy valuation, post meager gains - YouTube

[Eug]

Premarket May 21, FB now at $36.98.

BTW, there was just one single buyer who bought FB at its peak of $45, just over 400 shares, at $18000 and change.

[turtle777]

LOL, now below $34, a 12% drop.

It's a FacePlant indeed.

-t

[Eug]

Yeah, it traded as low as $33 at one point.

I'm wanting to say that this restores my faith again in the market, but even at $34, I can't truly say that. It's hard to reconcile Facebook's numbers with even a valuation of $34, which is already a double-digit % loss from the IPO price.

P.S. Bono denies he's a billionaire. His investment group made that $90 million investment, but we don't know how much of that investment group he himself owns. Still, this IPO has made him - and a whole bunch of private investors - a sheetload of money.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Yeah, it traded as low as $33 at one point.

I'm wanting to say that this restores my faith again in the market, but even at $34, I can't truly say that. It's hard to reconcile Facebook's numbers with even a valuation of $34, which is already a double-digit % loss from the IPO price.

Now trading, pre-market, at well below $33.

Currently $32.60, more than 4% below yesterday's close.

[olePigeon]

Looks like SEC may be investigating the IPO. Apparently only the important people were told about the devaluation. Everyone with pre-IPO stocks sold it immediately after the IPO value was raised to $38. Everyone else got to ride the waterfall and lose their shirts.

Not like it matters. The "important" people got the money they wanted. I imagine at most they'll get a slap on the wrist, a few million dollar fine (of the billions upon billions made), and nothing will happen of it.

Actual value of the stock is somewhere around $9.

[turtle777]

Make that 9 pesos.

-t

[Eug]

Facebook now below $29, down 3 bucks.

[The Final Dakar]

It's entertaining.

[Big Mac]

Does Facebook's IPO Prove That Zuckerberg Isn't Up to the Job? - The Daily Beast

[turtle777]

For all we know, he might be a one trick pony.

That would zuck for FB.

-t

[Big Mac]

I think that may very well be true. Zuck's a nebbish Asperger boy who struck gold through some initiative, some computer skill and the right Ivy League connections. I doubt he's a visionary like Jobs, a true computing genius like Woz or nearly as shrewd a businessman as Gates. I think he's in over his head here and lacks young Jobs's sense to at least attempt to turn a burgeoning new large cap corporation over to more adult management.

Beyond that, I give Facebook its due to the extent that it's a better social networking platform than its predecessors. But just like Myspace was such a hot property until it wasn't, Facebook is very vulnerable to being overtaken by the next big online social fad. Facebook isn't really that good, and it has a lot of negatives along side its positives.

[turtle777]

FailBook is nearing the $26 handle.

Is the Zucktanic going to hit the Faceberg again ?

-t

[Big Mac]

Zuctanic-Faceberg . To be fair, I'd like to succeed in business a tenth as well as Zuck has failed.

This IPO was priced WAY WAY WAY too high. The investment bankers and the insiders got greedy. Facebook is going to have show massive new revenue growth very quickly or the stock will tank more.

They said on CNBC this morning (who knows how accurate it may be, but I'll go with it) that if FB had the P/E of AAPL, it would be trading at 6 buckaroos. I think it's got to go down much more and get down to its teens or lower before it starts looking attractive, unless growth picks up hugely.

[turtle777]

There is strong technical support at the $0.00 price

-t

[Eug]

Best IPO ever.

I love it because it's a strong reminder that every once in a while the fundamentals will exert themselves. It's better to have one high profile stock like this do this, instead of having everyone froth things up to a big bubble and then have a great big global crash.

[Eug]

$27.75

[cgc]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I don't know who said it, but I agreed:

We're going to see $20 before we're going to see $100.

I'm not bullish for the future. They really haven't figured out how o monetize.
Mobile aside, the click-rates are horrible, ads are basically exposure only.
This doesn't qualify the current valuation.

-t

I said the same thing on Slashdot and got ripped a new one. Until FB can find ways to make money and still seem cool they won't be profitable. I hear they are looking into "social gaming" but that may take a little time.

[turtle777]

"social gaming"

Oh, wait, Zynga is gonna hate that *evil grin*

-t

[cgc]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

"social gaming"

Oh, wait, Zynga is gonna hate that *evil grin*

-t

I know...FB tossing out some key words to pique interest and make it look like they're being run by a kid...oh wait...

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

FailBook is nearing the $26 handle.

Is the Zucktanic going to hit the Faceberg again ?

-t

Not a big fan of Facebook or Zuckerberg, but I've never understood the burning need for name-calling like this.

[Eug]

Facebook has now lost over 40% since its peak.

The peak was $45, and today it closed at $26.90.

[Eug]

FB - $23.97
(52 wk high $45.00)

ZNGA - $3.06
(52 wk high $15.91)

There is way too much white space in these posts!

[turtle777]

It's pretty amazing. The tech IPO market is definitely dead again. Welcome to reality.

-t

[subego]

These seem like correct valuations to me. That's not dead, just not batshit insane.

Zynga was always garbage, and Facebook hasn't really done anything since their IPO, which my auto-correct wants to turn into "iPod" BTW.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

[QUOTE name="turtle777" url="/forum/post/4170588"]
FailBook is nearing the $26 handle.


Is the Zucktanic going to hit the Faceberg again ?


-t

Not a big fan of Facebook or Zuckerberg, but I've never understood the burning need for name-calling like this.[/quote]
As I recall, turtle is a fan of "Obummer" and "0bama", too.

Puerile wit, iMnsho.

[turtle777]

0bama is so 2010.

Failbama is is 2012.

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

FB - $23.97
(52 wk high $45.00)

$21.76, down 6% today.

So, now down well over 50% from the peak of $45 just a couple of months ago.

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

It's pretty amazing. The tech IPO market is definitely dead again. Welcome to reality.
-t

It's not the IPO market that's dead, it's the mistaken impression that IPOs are a mechanism for automatically and easily generating cash. The stock market is not some magical money-generating machine, it's a market in which things are bought and sold. If nobody wants to buy what you're selling, it's more reasonable to consider it a failure of your product (and/or pricing) than a failure of the market.

[BadKosh]

Perhaps there isn't such a market for unproductivity tools?

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

Perhaps there isn't such a market for unproductivity tools?

Sure there is, every 6-10 years, the suckers collectively purge their memory of the last tech bubble, and start buying shit at crazy multiples.

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I don't know who said it, but I agreed:


We're going to see $20 before we're going to see $100.

Insert white space
Well, that was quick. Not even one full quarter, but FB dropped below $20 today, although it managed to squeak back up to $20.04 by the close. It did hug that $20 line for quite some time before truly dropping further. I suspect a lot of people had their buy orders set specifically for that $20 threshold.

Facebook shares dip below $20 for first time

Facebook’s first tier of restrictions go away on Aug. 16, when about 271 million shares will be available for trading, with another 243 million shares set to become available for trading between mid-October and mid-November.

But the day most investors are bracing for is Nov. 14, when more than 1.2 billion shares will suddenly be available for trading.

The imminent lock-up expiration also means that Wall Street analysts who participated in the Facebook IPO will once again go quiet, for a 30-day period, potentially creating more uncertainty in a stock that has experienced one of the rockiest market debuts in memory.

I'm still not entirely sure why it's even valued at $43 billion though. It's price/earnings ratio is 112. Google is 18.6, and Apple is 14.3, and FB's growth just isn't going to cut it methinks.

[subego]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

It's not the IPO market that's dead, it's the mistaken impression that IPOs are a mechanism for automatically and easily generating cash.

I'm going to be pedantic and say someone who used to hold that impression was absolutely not mistaken.

I'd say your IPO bringing in money to the tune of twice what it's worth can be described as nothing other than a mechanism for automatically and easily generating cash.

[Eug]

Facebook touched $19.00 yesterday, exactly half of its IPO price, and closed at $19.05.

So, down 49.9% at the close vs. IPO price, and down 57.7% from the peak.
To put it another way, the peak at $45 was 236% yesterday's closing price of $19.05.

Market cap is now $40.8 billion, with a P/E ratio of $65.92.

So, what do you think will come next? $10, or back up to $38? The analysts have a target of $36.40 in one year, but I dunno. There's a lot of stock coming online now that may be sold off. That's gonna put some pressure downwards in the near term. So, I'm gonna bet on it going down significantly before it goes up significantly, although $10 might be a tad pessimistic.

P.S. I'm not sure why the P/E ratios don't match up, but that's what's posted online.

[Cold Warrior]

If the increased volume hitting the market made it drop like this, I bet it'll drop even more in the future. I thought I read there were even more shares being unlocked in the near term. $10 seems more appropriate before $38. Plus the analysts could be trying to prop it up for their banks just like the banks did on IPO day.

[shifuimam]

I'm not entirely sure why anyone sees investment potential in FaceBook.

Other online giants provide actual revenue-generating services. Google makes a shitload of money from both AdSense and Google for Domains. FaceBook does...nothing.

If anything, it seems like it would make more sense to invest in Zynga or one of the other companies who are raking in millions on shitty games and apps for FaceBook.

I think Mark Zuckerberg finally got too big for his pantaloons.

[turtle777]

Well, seems I was right with my call above.

I can see FB drop to $10. However, what's making this call hard is that we don't know what general "market propping" actions the Fed is going to take. If we see QE3 and QE4, all bets are off. All that money will flow into any- and everything.

-t

[Eug]

It broke through $19 today, with a vengeance. As of right now (early afternoon) it's down over 4% to around $18.30 now, with a market cap below $40 billion.

So, an eight buck drop to $10, or a twenty buck rise to $38?

[turtle777]

Oh it did ?

Sorry, I was too busy hugging my gold and silver coins

-t

[Eug]

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by shifuimam 

FaceBook does...nothing.

Facebook made 1 billion in profit in 2011, on 3.7 billion in revenue. If you think that's nothing, how much do you make?

(Doesn't stop the stock from being overpriced. I'm in the $10 camp.)


PS: Zygna revenue is in freefall. So is their share price.

[Nergol]

[VIDEO]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A[/VIDEO]