[subego]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

Is the reason you have put deterrence in quotation marks because it doesn't actually work in practice? (Again, look to what happened in other countries that have slid into illiberal democracies.)

I did not.

Is there a specific event you can point to that’s analogous?

[MacNNFamous]

So here's Bernie saying effectively same shit; appeal to the working class, not the elites.

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...working-class/

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by subego 

Yes. A/K/A “deterrence”.

Yes, that’s super effective. That’s why Tr*mp, who stacked the courts and corrupted the judiciary to his own advantage, was never voted back into office.

Right.

[subego]

The power to deter comes from the majority. Defy the majority and get thrown out of office.

This is precisely what happened in 2020. The majority threw Trump out of office. That majority evaporated, and along with it the ability to deter him from regaining office.

In the scenario we’re discussing, fucking around with electors, a state legislature must openly defy the majority. They would be punished by said majority.

[Spheric Harlot]

Your explanation breaks down at the point where he did NOT win the majority in 2016, but the way the electoral college is stacked, he won anyway.

But aside from that:

The point of disenfranchisement is that people no longer get voted out of office.

[sek929]

Originally Posted by MacNNFamous 

So here's Bernie saying effectively same shit; appeal to the working class, not the elites.

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...working-class/

Nah lets trot out Liz Cheney instead and try and win over "moderate republicans" for some reason.

[sek929]

The Democrats either reinvent the direction of the party or do what they did the last time(s) they got their pants pulled down, move to the right.

[Thorzdad]

The basic problem democrats, as a party, have is that it’s a galaxy-sized big tent that is, basically, a refuge for everyone who is not republican, and still believes in representative democracy. Putting together a sane, coherent platform that doesn’t piss-off one chunk or another of the crowd you’re trying to represent is functionally impossible. See the israel/palestine mess that tore-through the party like bird flu and deeply divided large swaths of otherwise dependable voters. Or the younger voters who stayed away because Harris wasn’t the perfect sparkly pony they demanded.

The republican party, otoh, has none of that. Save for libertarians on the fringes, it’s a relatively homogenous group, who are all joined together to 1) smash liberals (i.e. anyone not republican), and 2) end the federal government as we know it.

By sheer numbers, the democrats should swamp the republicans year-after-year. But, the diverse depth of interests/causes/beliefs/ideologies under that big tent is what makes it hard to hold together, but so very easy to split.

The US (or, at least, the part of the country that isn’t MAGA or christian fundy) would benefit greatly if it could find a way to get past the entrenched two-party system, so that working coalitions could be built to govern effectively.

[OreoCookie]

I agree that it is not tenable that e. g. Liz Cheney and AOC endorse the same candidate. However, the only “solution” I can see is that the GOP as we know it collapses. There is no other way as far as I can tell. Up until that point, anyone interested in democracy and actual policy needs to stay with Democrats.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by Thorzdad 

The republican party, otoh, has none of that. Save for libertarians on the fringes, it’s a relatively homogenous group, who are all joined together to 1) smash liberals (i.e. anyone not republican), and 2) end the federal government as we know it.

The most amazing aspect of the collapse of American Democracy, to me, is how the entire Republican party fell lock-step in behind a fascist authoritarian and his shadow cabinet thinktank, when they had no ostensible need to do so (and in fact, roundly denounced the coup attempt).

I cannot believe that this is actual conviction (except on part of the real crackpots) — so is it brute opportunism or fear, or both, or something else?

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Thorzdad 

Or the younger voters who stayed away because Harris wasn’t the perfect sparkly pony they demanded.

You've used this same phrase/terminology more than once. Is this an idea that you really like? There's a valuable conversation to be had about why Gen Z men swung right by 15 points between 2020 and 2024 and Gen Z women shifted by 7 points, but shortcutting the conversation by pretending that voters in that demographic were picky little princesses doesn't do anyone any good.

[Thorzdad]

I’m in a couple of other communities with a fairly good number of younger folk in the mix. The discussions with them over the election were maddening. It was a constant movement of tiny goalposts. For instance, first their problem was that Harris wasn’t saying anything about Palestine. Then it was Harris didn’t say the exact thing they wanted her to say. Then her environmental statements weren’t exactly what they wanted to hear. Over and over, it was a case of Harris not being perfect enough, not saying the exact things they wanted to hear, for them to bother with voting to keep trump out of office. And every encouragement to vote was met with a lot of “oh, please, i’m so tired of being told this is the most important vote i’ll cast,” despite, y’know, evidence to the contrary.

[Laminar]

And then you extrapolated that to an entire generation without looking at any data?

[subego]

The basic shape seems right. I’m not sure what else it could be.

Swing state Democrats who didn’t vote aren’t particularly afraid of Trump. If they were they would have voted despite their complaints with Harris.

Palestine seems to be the big issue with zoomers.

[Spheric Harlot]

So they accepted the win of somebody who basically told Netanyahu to nuke the Palestinians and annex their land.

Figures.

[subego]

Trump and Biden policy on Israel is thesamepicture.jpg.

It’s not like Biden would have stopped that.

Harris had plenty of opportunity to distance herself from that, and didn’t take it.

[Spheric Harlot]

Yep. And targeted ads made it clear that a fascist takeover is better than voting for someone who hasn’t made clear whether she’ll support the same Middle East policy, or improve things.

It’s the same bullshit that beat Hillary and got us Tr*mp I.

Sow enough doubt to keep the thinking people from the ballots.

[subego]

Candidate refuses to commit, thereby giving their opponent a chance to sow doubt.

Opponent sows doubt.


That’s the way the game works, no?

[andi*pandi]

Well if you're pro palestine, you're an antisemite. If you're pro israel, you're pro genocide. I heard Harris talk on this with sensitivity to both groups but apparently no one else did.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

Well if you're pro palestine, you're an antisemite. If you're pro israel, you're pro genocide.

Yep, and Harris was both, apparently.

https://thehill.com/business/4941848...ads-on-israel/

[subego]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

I heard Harris talk on this with sensitivity to both groups but apparently no one else did.

I honestly applaud your confidence Harris would have translated this sensitivity into policy where the Palestinians come out significantly better.

I see so many things stacked against it, the lack of something more concrete makes me skeptical, as I imagine it would to a Palestine single-issue voter.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by subego 

I honestly applaud your confidence Harris would have translated this sensitivity into policy where the Palestinians come out significantly better.

Except we have seen that play out in the Biden administration. They have exerted a lot of pressure on the Netanyahu government to e. g. ensure that aid could be delivered. Diplomacy isn't about making boisterous statements and being loud, but the nuances. I would expect that a Harris administration had continued down that path.

That doesn't mean you have to agree with the Biden administration's stance. But it is rich that Trump got to criticize Biden and Harris for simultaneously being “too weak in its support for Israel” and for “not helping Palestinians enough”.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

Well if you're pro palestine, you're an antisemite. If you're pro israel, you're pro genocide. I heard Harris talk on this with sensitivity to both groups but apparently no one else did.

The crazy black-and-white thinking of people of Netanyahu's and Trump's stripe is making things worse. All empathy is being lost and politics actively discourages everyone from developing empathy for the other. Hamas clearly had had no empathy for the victims and Israelis it abducted. Israel shows a clear lack of empathy with how it handles the situation in Gaza and the West Bank (remember: Hamas does not control the West Bank), and it is also reflected in your apt description of the either-or (either you are an anti-semitic lover of terrorists or you support genocide).

[andi*pandi]

Originally Posted by subego 

I honestly applaud your confidence Harris would have translated this sensitivity into policy where the Palestinians come out significantly better.

I see so many things stacked against it, the lack of something more concrete makes me skeptical, as I imagine it would to a Palestine single-issue voter.

I don't think anyone can solve this dispute in a sound bite. Expressing care for the palestinian people, and making the clear distinction between them and Hamas, was the point, while also making clear that the hostages need to be returned.

As Oreo points out, Biden getting aid thru took diplomacy and negotiating not being a blowhard. Getting Hamas out when they are literally underground, under hospitals and schools, is going to be a high level op that probably can't be talked about until it's over.

[subego]

“Israel can suck it.”

There’s the sound bite.

[MacNNFamous]

"Subego is a nazi sympathizer" is what the news bite would say. Can't say anything critical of Israel hoovering billions of US tax payer dollars while our VA hospitals rot, infrastructure falls apart, education system fails, etc.

My MAGA neighbor has been in a good mood.... it's going to be so hilarious when everything hits the fan. Crops will skyrocket once deportation begins, and when the culling happens of federal employees, unemployment will skyrocket, it's going to be hilarious. What really boggles my mind is he's a union guy, with a pension. I'm like .... wait... a union? The thing where you band together to put leverage against your employer for higher pay and benefits? Like..uh... socialism? Mental gymnastics by MAGA cult is olympic level.

[subego]

Originally Posted by MacNNFamous 

"Subego is a nazi sympathizer" is what the news bite would say.

Yes.

However the issue isn’t coming up with a sound bite which makes this position clear to pro-Palestinian zoomers, it’s lacking the power and support to win on that platform.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by MacNNFamous 

My MAGA neighbor has been in a good mood.... it's going to be so hilarious when everything hits the fan.

Trump's first term showed us that a healthy economy can thrive with four straight years of deficit spending, skyrocketing the national debt, trade wars devastating price stability, and more. For any micro-failures, he's willing to deficit spend to get his way out of it - see the $12 billion bailouts to farmers after the Trump/China trade war destroyed crop prices. Generally, bad economic policy usually has longer-term consequences, long enough that those at fault have enough distance to blame something or someone else. I'm not convinced anything will hit the fan in his term, though we could definitely have a repeat of last time where a Democrat gets elected in 2028 and has to suffer all of the bad press of inflation and excessive government spending and high prices driven by having to clean up the previous administration's bad policies.

Crops will skyrocket once deportation begins,

"Biden's bad economic policy and lack of fossil fuel investment has continued to skyrocket gas and grocery prices."

and when the culling happens of federal employees, unemployment will skyrocket, it's going to be hilarious.

The federal government employs 1.8 million people. The current unemployment rate is 4.1% or 7 million people. Say the fed employment gets cut in half, that's now 7.9 million people or about 4.6%. That's still lower unemployment than we had in August of 2021.

Also unemployment is really easy to culture-war-away - "no one wants to work anymore," "this generation is so lazy," "everyone is afraid of hard work and wants a cushy social media influencer job instead of getting their hands dirty." Boom his base doesn't care about unemployment anymore.

What really boggles my mind is he's a union guy, with a pension. I'm like .... wait... a union? The thing where you band together to put leverage against your employer for higher pay and benefits? Like..uh... socialism? Mental gymnastics by MAGA cult is olympic level.

Trump has been really careful about his messaging around Unions. He knows that white non-college graduated old men (most unions) are his biggest demographic. They're very susceptible to the "I earned this so fuck you" and "no one wants to work anymore" narratives that work well for him.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by MacNNFamous 

My MAGA neighbor has been in a good mood.... it's going to be so hilarious when everything hits the fan.

We have been here before, haven't we? Did Obama get credit for getting Americans out of the financial crisis? Did Biden get credit for dealing with inflation faster than any G7 nation? Do Republican voters who are suddenly concerned about budget deficits know how the budget deficit developed during the Trump presidency?

My impression is that after shit hit the fan, a Democratic administration takes over to shovel shit and I have the impression they are far more remembered for a driveway full of shit (aka the before) and not for the clean(er) driveway they left behind.

Another pointer in this direction is how Republican's opinion on the state of the economy changed after Trump's election even though Biden is still in power. It is this that I think we need to understand and combat.

Originally Posted by MacNNFamous 

Crops will skyrocket once deportation begins, and when the culling happens of federal employees, unemployment will skyrocket, it's going to be hilarious. What really boggles my mind is he's a union guy, with a pension. I'm like .... wait... a union? The thing where you band together to put leverage against your employer for higher pay and benefits? Like..uh... socialism? Mental gymnastics by MAGA cult is olympic level.

Yeah, the “He didn't mean us!” attitude.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

We have been here before, haven't we? Did Obama get credit for getting Americans out of the financial crisis?

No, Democrats are in bed with big business and bailed out their banking buddies.

[Waragainstsleep]

Some fun conspiracy theories appearing. First one about Starling providing internet for the vote tabulating machines, but only in the swing states, and one of their satellites being crashed to Earth the day after (to destroy evidence supposedly. Coupled with odd voting patterns in the swing states.

Newest one seems to be that Trump is very ill and nearly dead. Something about two ambulances & the secret service at Mar-a-Lago. And some plan to essentially Weekend at Bernies him until they can get JD Vance sworn in because some people think if Trump croaks or is too ill to take charge before inauguration then Biden could or would refuse to certify and call a do-over. I have no idea what the law is but of course he has immunity for now.

[MacNNFamous]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

Some fun conspiracy theories appearing. First one about Starling providing internet for the vote tabulating machines, but only in the swing states, and one of their satellites being crashed to Earth the day after (to destroy evidence supposedly. Coupled with odd voting patterns in the swing states.

Newest one seems to be that Trump is very ill and nearly dead. Something about two ambulances & the secret service at Mar-a-Lago. And some plan to essentially Weekend at Bernies him until they can get JD Vance sworn in because some people think if Trump croaks or is too ill to take charge before inauguration then Biden could or would refuse to certify and call a do-over. I have no idea what the law is but of course he has immunity for now.

1000000% bro. He fucking cheated. Every swing state went to trump, but ALSO elected democratic senators?! No way. Here in Wisco, you're saying people voted for trump AND a lesbian democrat senator?

[subego]

Eyeballing it, I’d say the Republican got Nadered Fuentesed. He lost 70K to third-party candidates. Democrat only won by 30K.

[MacNNFamous]

Uh huh. And that just happened to happen in every swing state, what a coincidence. For some reason I'm seeing the most details on the houstonwade subreddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/houstonwade.../they_cheated/

[subego]

Huh?

Republican won the senate seat in Pennsylvania.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by subego 

Huh?

Republican won the senate seat in Pennsylvania.

My interpretation is that the talk of cheating during the election (if Trump had lost) got so stuck in their Maga brains that these conspiracy theories took on a life of their own even though even the basic thesis makes no sense (the Dems cheated and hence, Trump got elected ).

[subego]

I’m lost as to how this relates.

These are Democrats accusing Republicans of cheating.