[Kerrigan]

Observers have pointed out that if Hillary does not have strong wins in both Texas and Ohio, her campaign could be finished.

Well, here we are: in a state which was supposed to favor Hillary, Obama has taken a solid lead: 48% to 42%. Granted, anything can happen between now and then, and polls often contain errors, but this does not bode well for the future of Hillary's campaign.

Obama is probably going to win Wisconsin and Hawaii, which will amount to ... correct me if I'm wrong... a 10 state losing streak for Hillary. After these two victories, it is easy to imagine Obama pulling away from Hillary in Texas.

One never knows what the future holds, but right now it can't look good for the Hillary camp.

[besson3c]

Good news! Where is your source for this poll?

[nonhuman]

I'd assume it's American Research Group seeing as that's where the link is to.

[besson3c]

Whoopps... I missed the link, sorry about that!

[BRussell]

One thing I've enjoyed about watching these primaries is that the polls haven't always been accurate.

[besson3c]

In this case it doesn't even matter... Even if the polls are off by 10 percentage points, Hillary still has to win bigger than that if she is going to make up for her loss.

[chris v]

The Hispanic vote could still be a huge factor. Obama needs to get his butt over to El Paso, down to the valley, and back up through San Antonio. He needs to translate his "Yes we can" message back into Spanish, and bring up that the phrase was originally popularized by Cesar Chavez -- "Si, se Puede!" It'll be interesting to see if he tries.

I think he'll carry Dallas, Houston, Austin, and probably the panhandle. Not so sure about the Redneck Woods of east Texas.

[besson3c]

He still has another couple of weeks. I bet Hillary wishes that the election were tomorrow.

[ironknee]

I wonder if either Obama or Clinton gets the nomination, how soon will the "swift boat-republican" folks start to attack?


if Hillary wins, how soon will they attack her looks? (as I've seen on here)

if Obama wins, will they attack race?... especially will they use the "N" word?

[Kerrigan]

Doubtful, since the Clintons have demonstrated how race-baiting can kill your campaign.

A race between Obama and McCain would be nice, since we could finally look at issues and not have to worry about a disastrous clash of ideologies or personalities, which would most certainly have been the case in, say, a Hillary v Rudy matchup.

[chris v]

Originally Posted by ironknee 

if Obama wins, will they attack race?... especially will they use the "N" word?

HUSSEIN, HUSSEIN, HUSSEIN!

OBAMA RHYMES WITH OSAMA! OBAMA RHYMES WITH OSAMA! OBAMA RHYMES WITH OSAMA!

OH, AND HE HAS MORE MELANIN IN HIS SKIN, WHICH MAKES HIM THREATENING TO WHITEY!

(they got nuthin')

[RAILhead]

Looks like Hellary is winning in TX, according to RCP.

[chris v]

I just signed up for the lottery for the 100 available seats at their debate here in Austin. along with 26,000 other people. *sigh*

What's interesting about those American Research Group (whoever they are) is that they claim Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%. That's a damn slim margin for someone who plans on carrying the state due to its large Latino population. This is getting downright fun.

[Kerrigan]

It's interesting how Clinton and all of her supporters tried to use the racial issue to win the nomination. Bill Clinton said Obama was just like Jesse Jackson. Why, because they're both black? Clinton backers say that Americans won't vote for a black president. Evidently this isn't true since Obama is taking down one of America's most prominent political families. Obama has also been ghettoized by the Clintons. And remember those comments about how he "wasn't black enough?"

Now that it appears he's getting the nomination, you Democrats here are turning the race card to different use, bringing up the "N-word" (very constructive, ironknee), or his heritage. Democrats will have a field day saying that Republicans are racists. Can't you guys just drop the race card? It isn't working.

It kind of exposes the Democrat party for what it is--a group of people obsessed with identity politics. I've heard black democrats deride Colin Powell as an "uncle tom", and say that Condi is a traitor. Why? Why not grow up? The 1960s are over, nobody with a brain cares about your racial-dialectic theories, nobody cares about your identity politics, and nobody wants to listen to your tripe about how we're all racists. The great irony is that it's exactly these stupid misperceptions that Obama transcends.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by chris v 

I just signed up for the lottery for the 100 available seats at their debate here in Austin. along with 26,000 other people. *sigh*

What's interesting about those American Research Group (whoever they are) is that they claim Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%. That's a damn slim margin for someone who plans on carrying the state due to its large Latino population. This is getting downright fun.

Pundits have noted that you can't necessarily compare Texas' Latino's to California's, since there are more second- and third-generation Latinos in Texas, who may me more upwardly mobile, educated, and not tied down to voting for a Clinton. I'm not sure of Texas' demographics, but I do hope the Obama campaign can make some inroads in attracting the Latino vote.

[zerostar]

I am a Quasi-Clinton supporter and have NEVER used any race card (as would be obvious if you knew me) so I wouldn't go bashing a whole bunch of people in one sentence.

Also, all us voting Democrat (this time) aren't poor/stupid/or against Republicans either, some of us just think its time for change and a Dem should sit in the WH, at least for 1 term.

It makes me sick to my stomach that I every supported Bush and for that I am sorry to the whole country.

In reply to the OP, Obama is not in the lead in the majority of polls I frequent, I think saying he has a lead is a bit pre-mature. Hillary still has a god shot as much as people say she is crashing and burning.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by Kerrigan 

Observers have pointed out that if Hillary does not have strong wins in both Texas and Ohio, her campaign could be finished.

Well, here we are: in a state which was supposed to favor Hillary, Obama has taken a solid lead: 48% to 42%. Granted, anything can happen between now and then, and polls often contain errors, but this does not bode well for the future of Hillary's campaign.

Obama is probably going to win Wisconsin and Hawaii, which will amount to ... correct me if I'm wrong... a 10 state losing streak for Hillary. After these two victories, it is easy to imagine Obama pulling away from Hillary in Texas.

One never knows what the future holds, but right now it can't look good for the Hillary camp.

I'm very skeptical of polls. In the week leading up to the Super Tuesday primary here in California, a Field poll showed Obama and Hillary running neck and neck, and a Zogby poll showed Obama above Hillary. Unfortunately, by the time the election rolled around, something like 40% of the electorate had already voted by absentee ballot, going predominantly for Hillary. And the south and inland portions of California went for Clinton, while the Bay Area went for Obama. With Texas being as large and diverse as California, voting preferences might similarly be hard to track. Of course, Obama's been riding a wave of momentum in the last two weeks, so hopefully that makes a favorable impression on voters in the upcoming states. On the other hand, his frontrunner status has also made Obama the target of attacks from both Hillary and McCain.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by zerostar 

In reply to the OP, Obama is not in the lead in the majority of polls I frequent, I think saying he has a lead is a bit pre-mature. Hillary still has a god shot as much as people say she is crashing and burning.

My understanding though is that Hillary has to win BIG, as in decisively by 55% or more. If Obama can even keep it close, a win for Hillary might still not be enough.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

My understanding though is that Hillary has to win BIG, as in decisively by 55% or more. If Obama can even keep it close, a win for Hillary might still not be enough.

Nah all she needs is a win in TX and OH and then once FL and possibly MI are counted the supers can swing toward her and she will have it locked... if thats how it goes down...

[Oversoul]

FL and MI will not count. Seriously, how is the DNC going to justify counting Michigan when only Hillary's and Kucinich's names were on the ballot, and Florida when candidates weren't supposed to campaign there at all? Reinstating MI and FL's delegates as the results stand would be about the worse thing the DNC could do at the moment.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

FL and MI will not count. Seriously, how is the DNC going to justify counting Michigan when only Hillary's and Kucinich's names were on the ballot, and Florida when candidates weren't supposed to campaign there at all? Reinstating MI and FL's delegates as the results stand would be about the worse thing the DNC could do at the moment.

Thats why I said "possibly" on MI. As far as FL there is huge outcry here to be counted, it looks like the committee members will be punished and the delages will be seated. I could be wrong though

[Kerrigan]

Texas poll shows dead heat among Dems - CNN.com