[IceEnclosure]

I was telling people like a week ago to remember the name, the storm was looking good right after forming, and has been looking more stout every day. Currently a Cat 4 storm, could drop to Cat 3 before going back up to a Cat 4 upon nearing my location. It will turn north, but when? All the models were showing it going north before reaching Florida(over the Atlantic), but at this time, I'm here to ask you folks to watch my back. Tuesday, 8pm, September 9th, it'll show up at the front door of my job.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4...?5day#contents


**edit: this map keeps changing, so it makes my initial posting a little outdated. The path indicated here is no longer suggesting Ike will punch me in the face, but obviously it's not set in stone.

[Teronzhul]

And I'm up at the cape, so it will be coming after me next.

[brassplayersrock²]

Good luck Ice.

[Jawbone54]

Thoughts and prayers with you. I hate hurricane season.

[The Godfather]

Is that kite surfer going to be out of the hospital in time for this hurricane?

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

Is that kite surfer going to be out of the hospital in time for this hurricane?

Interesting you ask. He was in our restaurant for dinner the other night. He's doing okay I guess, which is quite surprising.

[mduell]

Predictions from 15 different weather models:


Fewer models, but includes the SHIPS windspeed prediction:


Another good image to check, peak wind prediction along the forecasted path:

[ctt1wbw]

In south of Williamsburg, Virginia. We need some damn rain, and something fierce. It's drier than Phoenix out here. Come on Hanna Hilton, and Ike, hit me!

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by ctt1wbw 

In south of Williamsburg, Virginia. We need some damn rain, and something fierce. It's drier than Phoenix out here. Come on Hanna Hilton, and Ike, hit me!

I wouldn't be asking Ike to hit me.

[nonhuman]

Oh yeah! Well we might get a tropical storm here in Boston! Time to batten down the hatches!

[xi_hyperon]

4 days out, Ike might still swing one way or the other, so hang tight and hope for the best. Over the next day or so the forecasting models will start converging, but right now, they're a tad scattered.

[brassplayersrock²]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

Oh yeah! Well we might get a tropical storm here in Boston! Time to batten down the hatches!

It seemed as if we got a taste of what's to come this summer. Freak dow pouring t/l storms with hail at times.

[olePigeon]

God loves Florida so much, he's blessed them with so many hurricanes.

I'll ask Poseidon/Neptune to take it easy on you.

[iranfromthezoo]

Looks like it's heading to the Gulf...great now I am activated for the storm.

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

God loves Florida so much, he's blessed them with so many hurricanes.

Florida's a big enough place, I've not seen a direct hit* to where I am in like, my whole life.

*lots of storms have rolled thru, just no big cat 4/5 to fsck up my parties.

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by iranfromthezoo 

Looks like it's heading to the Gulf...great now I am activated for the storm.

This makes me think you're like, part of a Voltron-type situation.

[olePigeon]

This'll cheer you up. There's a comic for almost anything.

[C.A.T.S. CEO]

Oh this will be fun. Hurricane days next week at school!

[nonhuman]

Hurricane cos(x) is my favorite.

[IceEnclosure]

omg is(are) hurricane red and hurricane blue like TRON?

[Dakar V]

Doesn't this **** happen to Florida every year?

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Doesn't this **** happen to the Carolinas and the Gulf states every year?

pretty much.

[ctt1wbw]

Originally Posted by IceEnclosure 

This makes me think you're like, part of a Voltron-type situation.

Wonder Twin Powers, activate!!!

[finboy]

Originally Posted by IceEnclosure 

pretty much.

We're in HOuston/Galveston and a friend from home (NC) wrote to ask (last week) if Gustav was going to mean anything to us. On Friday I told her that, yeah, depending on whether it stayed East it might be OK but otherwise we'd have to pack EVERYTHING WE WANT TO KEEP in our cars and get the heck out of dodge. Kind of a bummer.

Several of these so far this year, and not one was an actual Texodus (yet). Let's hope Ike can die a peaceful death mid-Gulf.

It's nice living near the water (not like we get time to play down here) but Lord knows it is a pain in the butt watching/guessing hurricanes. Our communities are just like any other, but the only place we have to live is vulnerable. Not like we're a resort community or anything (next to NASA/JSC). We're just folks trying to do our jobs and raise our families, etc. The fear of hurricanes is amazingly draining, and the post-traumatic stress after an evacuation impacts everyone in the community, some folks for years afterwards. That's just the evac, not the actual storm. I've been through those in NC/SC, and the stress levels are rough.

[xi_hyperon]

Originally Posted by finboy 

We're in HOuston/Galveston and a friend from home (NC) wrote to ask (last week) if Gustav was going to mean anything to us. On Friday I told her that, yeah, depending on whether it stayed East it might be OK but otherwise we'd have to pack EVERYTHING WE WANT TO KEEP in our cars and get the heck out of dodge. Kind of a bummer.

Several of these so far this year, and not one was an actual Texodus (yet). Let's hope Ike can die a peaceful death mid-Gulf.

It's nice living near the water (not like we get time to play down here) but Lord knows it is a pain in the butt watching/guessing hurricanes. Our communities are just like any other, but the only place we have to live is vulnerable. Not like we're a resort community or anything (next to NASA/JSC). We're just folks trying to do our jobs and raise our families, etc. The fear of hurricanes is amazingly draining, and the post-traumatic stress after an evacuation impacts everyone in the community, some folks for years afterwards. That's just the evac, not the actual storm. I've been through those in NC/SC, and the stress levels are rough.

I'm about 70 miles inland from you, and so while our stress is *much* less than what you're forced to go through, I can imagine how tough it must be when you're waiting to see where a particular storm goes.

Don't know if you've checked it out, but the SciGuy blog is about the only place I visit for hurricane updates. He does a great job of explaining the various forecasting models, and what they mean for gulf. Even better, he does it without getting into the type of histrionics (it's coming, oh no!!1!1) that local forecasters seem to love.

[Rumor]

I think I will take the random earthquake (read: not often) over the constant hurricanes (read: several each year).

One of these days, Florida is going to break off and end up somewhere else.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by xi_hyperon 

I'm about 70 miles inland from you, and so while our stress is *much* less than what you're forced to go through, I can imagine how tough it must be when you're waiting to see where a particular storm goes.

Don't know if you've checked it out, but the SciGuy blog is about the only place I visit for hurricane updates. He does a great job of explaining the various forecasting models, and what they mean for gulf. Even better, he does it without getting into the type of histrionics (it's coming, oh no!!1!1) that local forecasters seem to love.

Thanks for the link. Very nice.

We'll keep our fingers crossed.

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by finboy 

We're in HOuston/Galveston and a friend from home (NC) wrote to ask (last week) if Gustav was going to mean anything to us. On Friday I told her that, yeah, depending on whether it stayed East it might be OK but otherwise we'd have to pack EVERYTHING WE WANT TO KEEP in our cars and get the heck out of dodge. Kind of a bummer.

Several of these so far this year, and not one was an actual Texodus (yet). Let's hope Ike can die a peaceful death mid-Gulf.

It's nice living near the water (not like we get time to play down here) but Lord knows it is a pain in the butt watching/guessing hurricanes. Our communities are just like any other, but the only place we have to live is vulnerable. Not like we're a resort community or anything (next to NASA/JSC). We're just folks trying to do our jobs and raise our families, etc. The fear of hurricanes is amazingly draining, and the post-traumatic stress after an evacuation impacts everyone in the community, some folks for years afterwards. That's just the evac, not the actual storm. I've been through those in NC/SC, and the stress levels are rough.

Peaceful death mid-Gulf not likely.

Butt-watching is the name of the game. And you gotta pay to play!

That didn't make sense but I'm watching football, soo..

(just happy this storm made a change of course)

watchout y'all!

[brassplayersrock²]

Originally Posted by IceEnclosure 

Peaceful death mid-Gulf not likely.

Butt-watching is the name of the game. And you gotta pay to play!

That didn't make sense but I'm watching football, soo..

(just happy this storm made a change of course)

watchout y'all!

I agree, minus the having to pay money part.

[KeriVit]

Crap. My bro in Mandeville LA (just over Lake Pontchartrain.) just got his power back from Gustav! He's my best friend. But he's stubborn as a mule. His only evac was Katrina. Been teasin me about Hannah all week. NOLA does NOT need this.

[brassplayersrock²]

Hannah is here!!! Boston, MA

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by brassplayersrock² 

Hannah is here!!! Boston, MA

Let us know if your power goes out!

and have fun/be safe.

[IceEnclosure]

Originally Posted by brassplayersrock² 

I agree, minus the having to pay money part.

Was that because you agree we should watch storms or that we should watch butts?

[nonhuman]

I have to say, Hannah did not seem all the impressive by the time she got here. Some heavy rain, but that's about it. (Also Boston)

[brassplayersrock²]

ice: butts. and no power outages that I've heard of. Just ton of rain and humidity.

nonhuman: The humidity sucks though (in a building with no a/c) Yeah, she kind of lost some of her punch.

[nonhuman]

True, the humidity has been pretty miserable today (we only have a window unit in the bedroom, and only run it at night).

[ctt1wbw]

I've been in thunderstorms worse than Hannah. We didn't even get enough rain from it to see it ponding on the roads. And yeah, it's still humid outside as of Sunday morning here.

[xi_hyperon]

Damn. Looking seriouser and seriouser for those of us on the western part of the gulf.



I think the GFDL model (the blue line), was the most consistent and accurate with Gustav. We're talking 5-6 days out though, so who knows where this beast will end up. It's pretty safe to say that Cuba's in for a thrashing, however.

[CaseCom]

[finboy]

Originally Posted by xi_hyperon 

Damn. Looking seriouser and seriouser for those of us on the western part of the gulf.



I think the GFDL model (the blue line), was the most consistent and accurate with Gustav. We're talking 5-6 days out though, so who knows where this beast will end up. It's pretty safe to say that Cuba's in for a thrashing, however.

Yup. Last few iterations aren't looking so good.

My wife an I are evac'ing all the heirlooms tomorrow. Then we'll see when we have to leave.

I get real worried when we're 1) on the bad side of the storm, and 2) the storm tracks underneath us.

[mduell]

Originally Posted by mduell 

Predictions from 15 different weather models:

*holding out hope for the CLP5 model*

[xi_hyperon]

Ike's eye:



Shot taken from a Hurricane Hunter, posted on Jeff Master's Wunderblog.

Hopefully, none of us will see the underside of that eye.

[swrate]

Hope all is fine down there, somehow i have a bad feeling.
I see a spiral divide into twin loops.

Could it be dreams added to anger, maybe
Houston flashes, Galveston flashbacks, i hope you all run from the sea, hide from the wind, it's no time to fly.
Ike, like strike&dislike

[xi_hyperon]

I'm sure finboy is more than concerned at this point, being that he's close to the water. I'm stocked up on water and food, candles and pet food. Woohoo.

[Jawbone54]

I hope my Texas friends come out okay. Praying for them and any of you guys who could potentially have it come your way.

[MindFad]

I lawled.

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

This'll cheer you up. There's a comic for almost anything.

[RAILhead]

If you check out NOAA's map below, notice where the track crosses onto land.



My town is right underneath the bastard.

I'm posting from Bastop, which is where we evacuate to. Totally sucks since this storm looks really, really bad. My Dad's in the middle of his chemo treatments, can't move without oxygen, and now his house might get trashed. What a retirement, no?

CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!1

[pooka]

Good luck guys. Don't be sissies about it though. Gustav dropped an atom bomb on us. Still waiting for power and life to get back to normal. FYI, Honda generators are worth the premium. Whisper quiet.

[IceEnclosure]

If Gustav was an atom bomb, what would you call Andrew?


Be safe Texans!

[xi_hyperon]

Well, we're just waiting now. As I figured, I-45 looked to be a parking lot today...I hope all the people evacuating are able to reach their destinations. I realized this afternoon that I forgot a couple of things, went to the grocery store, and boy, what a zoo. Shelves were getting picked clean fast.