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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning?

View Poll Results: Which do you have? (Choose only ONE. Includes stand-alones and game consoles.)
Poll Options:
HD DVD 34 votes (17.09%)
Blu-ray 87 votes (43.72%)
Both 14 votes (7.04%)
Neither 70 votes (35.18%)
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 199. You may not vote on this poll
Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning? (Page 126)
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cSurfr
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:53 AM
 
I also enjoyed where he says that "every universal HD-DVD release will be in combo format from now on". . . just another way to bleed a little bit of money from the consumer before the format fails.

If Universal wants to sell movies, maybe they should make titles like Jurassic Park ($920,100,000
gross) in HD as opposed to titles like The Nutty Professor ($435,414,019 gross)
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analogue SPRINKLES
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:53 AM
 
So how many HD-DVD owners here entire collection of movies consist of the 5-10 free ones you got with the player?

Now that I think about it that is an important point as if you sell the player at a loss PLUS give them a nice base library of movies very few are going to buy more movies for a loooong time. Hence, why HD-DVD did so well in disks sales next to BR. Nobody had to buy any, they got em all free. Oh but there are more stand alones in the market

Hopefully there is a lesson learned with how well that worked out.
     
starman
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:53 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
It did from most of us DVD owners as it was a pretty crappy DVD player.
True, it wasn't the best. The Panasonic was a better one at the time, but the combination of cheap (relatively for its time) DVD player and game machine helped not only sell PS2s, but helped strengthen DVD. Now people give Sony crap for a Blu-Ray drive and the 360 for the HD add-on? I don't get it.

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cSurfr
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
So how many HD-DVD owners here entire collection of movies consist of the 5-10 free ones you got with the player?

Now that I think about it that is an important point as if you sell the player at a loss PLUS give them a nice base library of movies very few are going to buy more movies for a loooong time. Hence, why HD-DVD did so well in disks sales next to BR. Nobody had to buy any, they got em all free. Oh but there are more stand alones in the market

Hopefully there is a lesson learned with how well that worked out.
I have a total of 46 HD-DVDs and 4 Blu-Rays (5 more for free in the mail yet), but I won't buy any more of either format. It's just not worth the investment.
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cSurfr
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Jan 22, 2008, 10:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
True, it wasn't the best. The Panasonic was a better one at the time, but the combination of cheap (relatively for its time) DVD player and game machine helped not only sell PS2s, but helped strengthen DVD. Now people give Sony crap for a Blu-Ray drive and the 360 for the HD add-on? I don't get it.
Because, as Microsoft says "They want to give the consumer choice." Between HD-DVD and HD-DVD, that is
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jokell82
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:00 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
So how many HD-DVD owners here entire collection of movies consist of the 5-10 free ones you got with the player?

Now that I think about it that is an important point as if you sell the player at a loss PLUS give them a nice base library of movies very few are going to buy more movies for a loooong time. Hence, why HD-DVD did so well in disks sales next to BR. Nobody had to buy any, they got em all free. Oh but there are more stand alones in the market

Hopefully there is a lesson learned with how well that worked out.
That makes no sense considering Blu-Ray had the exact same promotion.

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cSurfr
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:05 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
That makes no sense considering Blu-Ray had the exact same promotion.
I think he's pointing out that HD-DVD players were as low as 99.00, which was sold at a loss, and then Toshiba is eating the cost of the movies as well. Not all Blu-Ray players are sold at a loss (especially when some are over $1000.00!)

John Q. Public is more apt to spend 100.00 on an HD-DVD player than they are 500.00 on a Blu-Ray player. More players sold = greater attach rate, but with the Blu-Ray attach rates of 2:1 (usually), people that own Blu-Ray are spending more money on movies. . . . Does that make sense to anyone but me? It sounds right in my head. . .
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jokell82
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by cSurfr View Post
I think he's pointing out that HD-DVD players were as low as 99.00, which was sold at a loss, and then Toshiba is eating the cost of the movies as well. Not all Blu-Ray players are sold at a loss (especially when some are over $1000.00!)

John Q. Public is more apt to spend 100.00 on an HD-DVD player than they are 500.00 on a Blu-Ray player. More players sold = greater attach rate, but with the Blu-Ray attach rates of 2:1 (usually), people that own Blu-Ray are spending more money on movies. . . . Does that make sense to anyone but me? It sounds right in my head. . .
But remember the best selling Blu-Ray player *IS* sold at a loss.

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starman
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:18 AM
 
Another point:

Why would anyone even know of HD-DVD's existence when BR is being advertised LIKE NUTS on TV and I see NO ads for HD-DVD at all? I'd be interested to see how salesmen in places like Best Buy approach customers looking for a high-def player, or if they'd talk someone out of BR because of price.

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cSurfr
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
But remember the best selling Blu-Ray player *IS* sold at a loss.
The best selling Blu-Ray is sold at a loss, yes. . . but ALL HD-DVD players are now.

Originally Posted by starman View Post
Another point:

Why would anyone even know of HD-DVD's existence when BR is being advertised LIKE NUTS on TV and I see NO ads for HD-DVD at all? I'd be interested to see how salesmen in places like Best Buy approach customers looking for a high-def player, or if they'd talk someone out of BR because of price.
Come to think of it, you're right. I haven't seen one HD-DVD commercial since warner went Blu-Ray exclusive. . . before that, I would see maybe one Toshiba commercial per week (the one with the guy from the sopranos). Has Toshiba all but given up?
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Jan 22, 2008, 11:38 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
Well, this is an interesting article:

BetaNews | Interview: Universal EVP Ken Graffeo says HD DVD is here to stay

I love this quote:

Over the course of the upcoming years -- the next 5, 8, 10 years -- physical media is still going to be dominant. That's not to say you're not going to have digital, because it's going to come, but it won't reach the masses very quickly.
Honestly, what do you expect the the co-president of the HDDVD group, responsible for promoting HDDVD as the new physical media format, to say? It would be stupid for him to say physical media is dead in 5 years.

I personally do not like physical media. Where I live, rent is expensive. I don't need physical media to clutter my place and take up valuable space. Nor do I want to carry hundreds of pounds of CDs, DVDs, and storage cases everytime I move, and I do move often.
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Jan 22, 2008, 12:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
So how many HD-DVD owners here entire collection of movies consist of the 5-10 free ones you got with the player?
I got 5 free with the purchase of my XA-2. I'm up to about 20 total HD-DVDs and 20 Blu-rays (no freebies w/ my PS3).
     
Shaddim
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:22 PM
 
10 HD-DVDs, 88 Blu-ray

8 of the HD-DVDs came free with a HD-XA2, but I gave the player away to my grandmother. Her DVD player died and I figured it was better than a $25 COBY.
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brassplayersrock²
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:39 PM
 
88 blu-ray? how much did that burn your wallet?
     
icruise
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Jan 22, 2008, 03:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by brassplayersrock² View Post
88 blu-ray? how much did that burn your wallet?
Probably about the cost of 44 discs.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
That makes no sense considering Blu-Ray had the exact same promotion.
Na makes perfect sense actually. Both Toshiba and the 360 add on were always sold at cost or even for a loss for the most part. The players were $150 or sometimes even $99 with up to 15 FREE movies. That is a gigantic loss when you aren't making it back with disk sales.

Blu-ray did have a few similar promotions but you didn't have to buy a player with it, stand alones weren't sold at a loss, and the offers are few a far between.

My BR library is only about 20 titles with 1 free. 20 movies is all I really want as I have everything else on DVD anyway. The point is if my BR player had come with 20 movies from the start I would have also ended up buying zero as I had the essentials already.

HD thought they could saturate the market with cheap players and disk sales would pour in. It never happened even after Paramount goes exclusive, $99 player + 10 movies. The next month overall sales didn't even make a difference at all.
     
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analogue SPRINKLES
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by cSurfr View Post
The best selling Blu-Ray is sold at a loss, yes. . . but ALL HD-DVD players are now.
The PS3 sold as a loss but now breaks even. Also they made their money back with GAME and MOVIE sales and didn't give them all away for free. Also overall sales have beat HD-DVD for an entire year since the PS3.

So after only 1 year of loss sony is now going to start raking it in from the PS3 and BR.
     
starman
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:27 PM
 
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn!

Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post

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turtle777
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn!
Exactly. This is far worse (or better, depending which side you take) than anyone ever expected.

HD DVD is done. It seems not to be a matter of months anymore.

-t
     
starman
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:32 PM
 
I didn't expect it to grow that much that fast.

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Shaddim
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by brassplayersrock² View Post
88 blu-ray? how much did that burn your wallet?
I got quite a few w/ BOGO. Also, we buy movies instead of going to the multiplex, most of the time.
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post

What that chart really shows is just how niche the hi-def market really is. Because only a very educated customer would even know about the Warner announcement and have it effect their purchasing decision.

What this really tells us, is 1.) HD DVD is completely boned, and 2.) the audience for both of these formats is obviously still very small.

Both of which we pretty much knew already.

I really need to get a Blu-ray player.

EDIT: Never mind... this is for HARDWARE. This comes as no surprise, because lot's of people were waiting for something like this to happen.

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starman
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Jan 22, 2008, 04:43 PM
 
Cue HD-DVD fans saying "we'll see how the numbers are next week"

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turtle777
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Originally Posted by starman View Post
Cue HD-DVD fans saying "we'll see how the numbers are next week"


It can only get better

-t
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
What that chart really shows is just how niche the hi-def market really is. Because only a very educated customer would even know about the Warner announcement and have it effect their purchasing decision.
Not reallly. Even my father who doesn't have computer tells me he heard on the news that "Blu-ray WON" because of the Warner decision. Same goes for a couple other friends of mine who aren't geeks but still tell me "they heard about how Blu-ray won" but don't know it was because of warner.

I was shocked how many people I knew heard about it and how conclusive the news headlines were.

Judging by those numbers it worked.

Now I still have to point my finger at Paramount and laugh my ass off at them. If they are really stuck for over a year with such a dead format it serves them right.

As for Universal them sticking with HD for more than another month or 2 shows how ridiculously stubborn they are for no real reason.

Serves em both right.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
Cue HD-DVD fans saying "we'll see how the numbers are next week"
The Bee movie is out next week on HD so don't get cocky!
     
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Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Whoa.
     
turtle777
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
The Bee movie is out next week on HD so don't get cocky!
I predict two digit sales numbers.

Something between 30 and 50 units

-t
     
ort888
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
Not reallly. Even my father who doesn't have computer tells me he heard on the news that "Blu-ray WON" because of the Warner decision. Same goes for a couple other friends of mine who aren't geeks but still tell me "they heard about how Blu-ray won" but don't know it was because of warner.

I was shocked how many people I knew heard about it and how conclusive the news headlines were.

Judging by those numbers it worked.

Now I still have to point my finger at Paramount and laugh my ass off at them. If they are really stuck for over a year with such a dead format it serves them right.

As for Universal them sticking with HD for more than another month or 2 shows how ridiculously stubborn they are for no real reason.

Serves em both right.
Serves them right for what? If Sony announces that Blu-ray is done tomorrow will that serve Warner right?

Why is what Warner/20th Century Fox/Disney etc... did right and what Universal/Paramount did wrong?

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Jan 22, 2008, 05:18 PM
 
wakka wakka wakka…

     
turtle777
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Why is what Warner/20th Century Fox/Disney etc... did right and what Universal/Paramount wrong?
Other than picking the winning format ?

Nothing, really ?

-t
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Serves them right for what? If Sony announces that Blu-ray is done tomorrow will that serve Warner right?

Why is what Warner/20th Century Fox/Disney etc... did right and what Universal/Paramount wrong?
What Paramount did that was wrong was after 10 months of BR sales kicking HD's ass we are supposed to think that Paramount going HD was the smart thing that consumers wanted? It was an obvious cash grab and they should have made that choice early on. They are not big enough to sway the wars so they just wanted go grab as much cash as they could or they thought they had more power than in reality.
     
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Originally Posted by angelmb View Post
wakka wakka wakka…

LOL

angelmb wins this thread page.
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
LOL

angelmb wins this thread page.
Who is winning the thread?
     
ort888
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Jan 22, 2008, 05:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
What Paramount did that was wrong was after 10 months of BR sales kicking HD's ass we are supposed to think that Paramount going HD was the smart thing that consumers wanted? It was an obvious cash grab and they should have made that choice early on. They are not big enough to sway the wars so they just wanted go grab as much cash as they could or they thought they had more power than in reality.
Cash grab? Seriously?

What do you think everyone else is doing? Making movies in an attempt to make the world a better place? Sunshine, rainbows and lollypops?

It's nothing but a cash grab for every company involved. If Warner thought they could "grab more cash" with HD DVD they would have. Do you really think they went Blu-ray because they care about people? They went Blu-ray because they calculated that it was the most profitable move.

Which is the EXACT same reason every other company involved did what they did.


Paramount and Universal might still end up making more money this way. It's not like Blu-ray discs are flying off the shelf. I doubt any of the studios are making much money if any at all at this point.

By the time the market is more mature, they will be ready to release everything on Blu-ray... and they will have helped drive the price of players down in the short term.

I don't think they stand to lose much at all.

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Jan 22, 2008, 06:41 PM
 
Movie studios are no charity, that's for sure. And making money by selling your product is business as usual. But taking money for not selling your product in a certain format is definitely an unusual revenue stream. And a less ethical one.
     
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Originally Posted by TETENAL View Post
Movie studios are no charity, that's for sure. And making money by selling your product is business as usual. But taking money for not selling your product in a certain format is definitely an unusual revenue stream. And a less ethical one.
Exactly
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 07:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by angelmb View Post
wakka wakka wakka…

The funniest thing I've seen this year.
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analogue SPRINKLES
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Jan 22, 2008, 07:50 PM
 
From the mouth of Universal on HD-DVD:

"Ken Graffeo: First off all, the technology today is not ready to provide that full experience of getting the high-quality video instantaneously to the home. You've got broadband issues and things like that. Will that technology be there? Yes. Can I tell you when? It's not next year. I think you're beginning to see a lot more open systems and more collaboration, because right now you have so many unique systems and nothing is compatible. That's been the biggest problem, but you're beginning to see the walls break down.

Over the course of the upcoming years -- the next 5, 8, 10 years -- physical media is still going to be dominant. That's not to say you're not going to have digital, because it's going to come, but it won't reach the masses very quickly."

BetaNews | Interview: Universal EVP Ken Graffeo says HD DVD is here to stay
     
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Jan 22, 2008, 08:19 PM
 
Holy déjà vu, Batman.

As soon as they have 1080P, 7.1 channel, w/ no loss due to compression, I'm there! Sign me up in 2015.
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Jan 22, 2008, 08:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by TETENAL View Post
Movie studios are no charity, that's for sure. And making money by selling your product is business as usual. But taking money for not selling your product in a certain format is definitely an unusual revenue stream. And a less ethical one.
Companies sign exclusivity agreements all the time. There is nothing more or less ethical about them. It's just business.

Just like Sony's payout to Fox was just business.

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Jan 22, 2008, 08:54 PM
 
Here is the data I found on another site. Not sure how accurate it is.

Week 1

Blu-ray Disc - 15,257 units
HD-DVD - 14,558 units

Week 2 (After Warner Announcement)

Blu-ray Disc - 21,770 units
HD-DVD - 1,758 units

Just as HDDVD software sales took a big hit the week after the Warner announcement, so did the hardware sales. 1,758 is pretty awful sales numbers.

Two weeks of Bluray standalone sales is under 40k units. That is still less than half of what HDDVD sold over one weekend during the $99 sale, which 90k HDDVD standalone units were sold.
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Jan 22, 2008, 08:57 PM
 
I wonder how many PS3s were sold those weeks, though...

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Jan 22, 2008, 09:15 PM
 
The Digital Bits - Celebrating Film in the Digital Age

To put things in perspective.

2007

Weeks ending 12/8 to 12/29 (4 weeks)

Blu-ray Disc - 115,132 units (28,783/wk)
HD-DVD - 76,148 units (19,037/wk)

2008

Week 1

Blu-ray Disc - 15,257 units
HD-DVD - 14,558 units

Week 2 (After Warner Announcement)

Blu-ray Disc - 21,770 units
HD-DVD - 1,758 units


Unit sales for both Blu-ray and HDDVD is much lower in January than December.

Blu-ray - down 46%
HDDVD - down 57%
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Jan 22, 2008, 09:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by hyteckit View Post
Unit sales for both Blu-ray and HDDVD is much lower in January than December.

Blu-ray - down 46%
HDDVD - down 57%
Because all the big releases came out for Xmas, everyone bought movies for Xmas, everyone is broke after Xmas and nothing good came out after Xmas.
     
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Jan 23, 2008, 01:15 AM
 
Tthese are "hardware" sales number for "standalone" players for each format. If you were to add in the PS3 and HD DVD addon for Xbox 360 sales, the numbers would be even worse for HD DVD. I guess the numbers would be over 90% for all of December and 95%+ for January.
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Aristotle
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goMac
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Jan 23, 2008, 04:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
From the mouth of Universal on HD-DVD:

"Ken Graffeo: First off all, the technology today is not ready to provide that full experience of getting the high-quality video instantaneously to the home. You've got broadband issues and things like that. Will that technology be there? Yes. Can I tell you when? It's not next year. I think you're beginning to see a lot more open systems and more collaboration, because right now you have so many unique systems and nothing is compatible. That's been the biggest problem, but you're beginning to see the walls break down.

Over the course of the upcoming years -- the next 5, 8, 10 years -- physical media is still going to be dominant. That's not to say you're not going to have digital, because it's going to come, but it won't reach the masses very quickly."

BetaNews | Interview: Universal EVP Ken Graffeo says HD DVD is here to stay
That's funny, another big industry insider disagrees.

(I apologize for disappearing for the last few days, I came down with something awful, and after all the horrible things were over, I literally was just bedridden for a few days. I figured rather than poke around this thread and post replies that were even less sensible than usual, I'd just take a break and rest up. I also apologize to those of you disappointed to see me return. And no, I have not read all the posts that were made in the last few days.)
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starman
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Jan 23, 2008, 09:26 AM
 
It's OK, goMac. We didn't miss you. Really. The thread's been pretty sensible while you were away.

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jokell82
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Jan 23, 2008, 10:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
The thread's been pretty sensible while you were away.
HA!


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